Cyle Larin

[C2SKI]

6 hours ago, dsqpr said:

I don't understand your first paragraph!

I think he's just implying that Larin's transfer value is likely reduced because none of Orlando, MLS, or Canada have a history of developing world class strikers. Whereas Peñarol/Uruguay certainly does.

For me, predicting transfer value in this situation is difficult for a few reasons (as it often is with MLS). I've read his contract might be up in the near future. If true, teams could wait a season and get him free, which might lower his value. Alternatively, Orlando will want to hang on to him longer because they will get a larger percentage of his fee if he plays another season. This could command a higher price. Very strange situation for negotiations.

[Floortom]

Has anyone noticed that under Kreis it seems that every single one of Larin's goals has been in the box? Under Heath he had quite a few really nice strikes outside / on edge of box. Those have disappeared the last year and a half and he rarely even touches the ball in that area.

[dyslexic nam]

I like Larin.  I am really happy Canada has a guy that is putting the ball in the net at club level.  I am optimistic for his future.
 And my intent is absolutely not to shit on the guy.

But I can't escape the fact that every single time I have personally watched him he has failed to knock it out of the park. From frustrating performances for the CMNT, to the recent missed sitter(s) while playing at TFC, the reality is that I have never been super impressed with his actual play on those occasions where I have stopped looking at the stats and just watched him.

It must just be a combo of poor timing (on my part - watching the wrong games) and poor service while with the CMNT.  I know the consistency of the numbers he puts up in MLS prove that he has real talent.  But that doesn't change the fact that I, personally, haven't seen the kind of skill or footy IQ that makes me think he is destined for a top league somewhere. 

I hope he makes me regret this post by moving to a good club and tearing it up in Europe. 

[rob.notenboom]

His ability to go for a full 90 without really letting up has been a major step forward in his development. The guys face even looks different this year, I'm assuming from his off-season training regime, and that is really something. 

I'm still very curious what will happen when he comes up against better defenders day in and day out. 

[Kent]

Something that hasn't been mentioned yet I don't think, I hope Sigma gets a slice of the fee if/when he gets sold on. It can only be good for player development in Canada if youth clubs have that financial motivation (and hopefully they use the money wisely to either improve the coaching within their system, or to reduce/eliminate registration prices).

[Dominic94]

26 minutes ago, Kent said:

Something that hasn't been mentioned yet I don't think, I hope Sigma gets a slice of the fee if/when he gets sold on. It can only be good for player development in Canada if youth clubs have that financial motivation (and hopefully they use the money wisely to either improve the coaching within their system, or to reduce/eliminate registration prices).

MLS won't pay them the fee.

[Kent]

37 minutes ago, Dominic94 said:

MLS won't pay them the fee.

MLS doesn't have to. It would be the team that is buying Larin I believe. But I think there have been contradictory stories behind this. North Mississauga said they got payment for Doneil Henry's sale, but I believe DeAndre Yedlin's sale didn't make it's way down to his youth club. North Mississauga said they didn't even know about these types of payments when they were contacted (I believe West Ham contacted them directly).

[Dub Narcotic]

Orlando fans want him to stay around and he will get a generous DP offer this year. It will be up to him to decide what he wants to do.

[masster]

1 hour ago, Kent said:

MLS doesn't have to. It would be the team that is buying Larin I believe. But I think there have been contradictory stories behind this. North Mississauga said they got payment for Doneil Henry's sale, but I believe DeAndre Yedlin's sale didn't make it's way down to his youth club. North Mississauga said they didn't even know about these types of payments when they were contacted (I believe West Ham contacted them directly).

I think the problem is with the federations. USSF feels they have a legal ruling which means youth clubs are not entitled to training compensation and solidarity payments. CSA doesn't seem to have a problem with them.

Now Henry was registered in Canada because he played for Toronto. Larin is registered in the US. So this situation might be tricky.

[Kent]

4 hours ago, dsqpr said:

I think that would have to have been included in the contract. In the cut throat world of football finance, I doubt anybody will pay out even one penny unless they have to.

It doesn't have to be in the contract, it's a FIFA rule. @masster came up with the term I was forgetting, solidarity payments. According to FIFA, a players youth club is entitled to payments based on the number of years the player developed with them when that player is transferred for a fee. I am sure there are plenty of people on here that know the rule better than me and correct any mistakes I have made, but Sigma should be owed something as far as I understand. As for how much or if they deserve a percentage of the fee (on top of solidarity payments?) I don't know.

[Obinna]

Larin has 7 goals in 10 matches so far. What an incredible run of form. I think it speaks to Orlando being much improved as a whole.

Edited May 16, 2017 by Obinna

[Shway]

14 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Larin has 7 goals in 10 matches so far. What an incredible run of form. I think it speaks to Orlando being much improved as a whole.

How if he's been scoring regardless of how his team is collectively doing.

He's Cyle Larin he scores when he wants.

[Obinna]

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/05/15/cyle-larins-form-could-be-most-sustainable-among-top-goalscorers

Larin has scored 7 but his "expected goal" metric is 6.22, meaning he is scoring a little better than the rate you'd expect, given the chances he had.

The other top scores have the following stats:

Erick Torres (4 non-penalty goals) has an "xG" of 2.03 

Nemanja Nikolic (7 non-penalty goals) has an "xG" of 3.88

C.J. Sapong (7 non-penalty goals) has an "xG" of 4.13

This suggests that Cyle is not really an over performer, but rather he's outstanding at getting into high percentage spots. This is what we've theorized about Larin all along, citing his supposed tendency to be wasteful. Now, we have the statistics to back it up. That being said, when you are that prolific at finding high percentage opportunities, you can afford to miss a few of them. The good news is that if his finishing was even just a little bit better he'd put up absolute monster numbers.

Edited May 16, 2017 by Obinna

[Guest]

He has scored 7 of their 13 goals this season

[lazlo_80]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/05/15/cyle-larins-form-could-be-most-sustainable-among-top-goalscorers

Larin has scored 7 but his "expected goal" metric is 6.22, meaning he is scoring a little better than the rate you'd expect, given the chances he had.

The other top scores have the following stats:

Erick Torres (4 non-penalty goals) has an "xG" of 2.03 

Nemanja Nikolic (7 non-penalty goals) has an "xG" of 3.88

C.J. Sapong (7 non-penalty goals) has an "xG" of 4.13

This suggests that Cyle is not really an over performer, but rather he's outstanding at getting into high percentage spots. This is what we've theorized about Larin all along, citing his supposed tendency to be wasteful. Now, we have the statistics to back it up. That being said, when you are that prolific at finding high percentage opportunities, you can afford to miss a few of them. The good news is that if his finishing was even just a little bit better he'd put up absolute monster numbers.

I have to say, and this may be a personal thing. But expected goals is such a messy statistic that I think it's truly awful at really measuring anything. I've heard a few people justify it to me in a number of different ways but to the point you made it can make people look great for getting into dangerous positions, or bad for not finishing enough depending on however you want to portray it. A statistic that can serve such subjective conclusions is absurd.

[Dub Narcotic]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/05/15/cyle-larins-form-could-be-most-sustainable-among-top-goalscorers

Larin has scored 7 but his "expected goal" metric is 6.22, meaning he is scoring a little better than the rate you'd expect, given the chances he had.

The other top scores have the following stats:

Erick Torres (4 non-penalty goals) has an "xG" of 2.03 

Nemanja Nikolic (7 non-penalty goals) has an "xG" of 3.88

C.J. Sapong (7 non-penalty goals) has an "xG" of 4.13

This suggests that Cyle is not really an over performer, but rather he's outstanding at getting into high percentage spots. This is what we've theorized about Larin all along, citing his supposed tendency to be wasteful. Now, we have the statistics to back it up. That being said, when you are that prolific at finding high percentage opportunities, you can afford to miss a few of them. The good news is that if his finishing was even just a little bit better he'd put up absolute monster numbers.

 

Larin has out-performed his xG level the last two years (there was actually discussion about this earlier in the thread) and you can even find a deep @Benjamin Massey cut after Larin's first season calling for severe regression to the mean because his finishing was so much better than expected given his shot numbers. He not only gets into great positions but he has consistently finished better than expected relative to the MLS baseline (xG is different for different leagues). 

[Dub Narcotic]

1 minute ago, lazlo_80 said:

I have to say, and this may be a personal thing. But expected goals is such a messy statistic that I think it's truly awful at really measuring anything. I've heard a few people justify it to me in a number of different ways but to the point you made it can make people look great for getting into dangerous positions, or bad for not finishing enough depending on however you want to portray it. A statistic that can serve such subjective conclusions is absurd.

It's the opposite of messy and subjective (it's based on complete data sets of every shot taken over a season in a league) and it's actually a very good predictor of future performance, both on the team level and the player level.  

Here's a good primer on the statistic:

https://www.mlssoccer.com/glossary/expected-goals

 

[lazlo_80]

8 minutes ago, Dub Narcotic said:

It's the opposite of messy and subjective (it's based on complete data sets of every shot taken over a season in a league) and it's actually a very good predictor of future performance, both on the team level and the player level.  

Here's a good primer on the statistic:

https://www.mlssoccer.com/glossary/expected-goals

 

it's messy in that it doesn't take the full context of the moment into play when reducing a shot into the statistic.

 

just as a rough equivalent...

In baseball you always have the same basic outfield positions, there may be a shift, some players may play deeper than others and so on but when a pop fly is hit to outfield you can reduce the probability of it being caught by a player relatively easy because it's a repeatable scenario. thus you can tell a good fielder from a bad one based on how often they make low probability catches.

In soccer the scenario itself is way, way way less static and repeatable. Was the player on a breakaway? was he covered? was it a header? was it on his good foot? was he covered? where was the goalie? etc. etc. it tries to reduce an incredibly complex moment in a game to simply deciding on if the should've scored or not based on the location of where they took the shot. By ignoring all those other circumstances to get a nice, shiny, singular metric, your metric itself becomes more and more insignificant. 

[Dub Narcotic]

The more advanced xG metrics (not sure how sophisticated the various MLS ones are) actually do take into account header vs. foot strike and number of defenders between the shooter and the goal and etc.. In any case, a lot of those contextual things tend to even out over large sample sets like the ones used to calculate xG/xA numbers.

A really interesting metric that's gained popularity in the last couple of years, and that I've posted here before, is xGChain, which measures the passing contribution of players to shots with a positive xG in a game. It's a really interesting way to get a deeper look into how and whom on a team generates chances. @11tegen11 on Twitter posts great visualizations for most MLS games with xGChain data combined with passing network maps and it's an absolutely fantastic way to look at how a game played out.

Here's an example from the 'caps game last weekend, I defy you to tell me you find this more subjective and less useful than the usual message board post-game hot take:

 

[lazlo_80]

I'm not trying to take on the whole stats industry by any stretch, It was just my mini-rant on my frustrations with expected goals as a statistic that I think has definite flaws that make it hard for me to ever really get behind it.

end of side track.

Hey isn't that Larin kid great?

[Unnamed Trialist]

I watch Barça in a bar where this old guy, can barely walk, starts ranting about Luis Suárez, "overrated", "misses nine out of ten", usually the whole game, regardless of the goals the Uruguayan scores. Loudly. For him, Suárez misses too much and does not deserve to be considered a top striker. Or else he finds him frustrating. Or maybe the geezer is just racist (as some Spaniards are with S Americans). Or all three. 

Cyle should not be bothered by missing on occasion, important thing is to be resilent.

[BrennanFan]

14 hours ago, dsqpr said:

Found a bit of info on Larin's contract. Apparently it is a 3 year contract that expires this year but the CLUB have an option to extend it for two more years!

Larin’s contribution to the team has been massive since his arrival in Orlando. But with his contract potentially expiring at the end of the season (Orlando City does hold a club option for two more seasons), Lions fans know they may need to enjoy their striker while they can. Speculation about his future has never hindered him before, and it likely won’t start now.  

“I obviously know my contract is over soon but I think if I keep doing well and keep doing what I have to do, everything will play out,” Larin said.

https://www.google.ca/amp/www.goal.com/en-us/amp/news/1110/major-league-soccer/2017/03/30/34159262/mls-spotlight-cyle-larin-sees-transfer-speculation-as-motivation-

Club options are technically illegal according to FIFA, that's how Camilo left the Whitecaps for Mexico when he was still supposedly "under contract" with MLS.

[baulderdash77]

That's pretty much why there's so much traffic on Larin.  Fifa options only stick if they're mutual.  Larin obviously won't sign up for a mutual option paying him 300k when he can make millions.

[Yohan]

3 hours ago, BrennanFan said:

Club options are technically illegal according to FIFA, that's how Camilo left the Whitecaps for Mexico when he was still supposedly "under contract" with MLS.

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2014/01/17/camilo-saga-over-vancouver-whitecaps-transfer-striker-liga-mxs-queretaro-record-sum

 

Caps got a transfer fee

[dyslexic nam]

55 minutes ago, Yohan said:

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2014/01/17/camilo-saga-over-vancouver-whitecaps-transfer-striker-liga-mxs-queretaro-record-sum

 

Caps got a transfer fee

 

I am far from an expert in these matters, but that doesn't seem like it entirely refutes the claim that the club options are illegal under FIFA.  It could be that the Mexican side just wanted to make the transfer happen rather than get into a protracted legal battle (which would be in everyone's interest to avoid) with the MLS superstructure (which has demonstrated a capacity to cling to legal fictions - see discussion of Canadians as domestics) .  Plus they didn't announce any details of the deal so it is hard to know what it entailed.  Plus the player was already in another country, with another club, during a period Vancouver supposedly had a contract with him - which makes it seems like the contract wasn't exactly iron-clad.  

Like I said - not an expert.  But to me this isn't as clear cut as transfer fee = club options are okay.