What do you expect the CPL to be like?

[grasshopper1917]

6 hours ago, Marc said:

 

I think the league will do well to average 2500 p/g attendance.

I think success will be defined by the survival of the league for four or five years, if the league lasts that long.

I think if the league budgets for attendance of between 2000 and 6000 people per market they will be able to create a viable league. Also the reality is they will have to get out of 25,000-30,000 seat CFL football stadiums and *eventually* get into size specific soccer stadiums.

MLS has established itself as the top league in North America. They understood you cant have 15,000 fans in an 80,000 seat stadium. MLS would not be here today if they still had their teams playing in NFL stadiums. 

The CPL will also have to deal with MLS is the top flight league in Canada. We need to accept this fact and work with them n any way possible. In my opinion the CPL should have a mission to provide some spots for Canadian player to develop (I think 50% is enough) and provide some quality soccer entertainment.

NASL draws between about 2000 and 8000 fans a game. There is no reason to think number would be significantly higher in Canada for a league below MLS.

 

[GuillermoDelQuarto]

as long as it was closer to the 8000 mark than the 2000 one, I would consider CPL a smashing success.

Long term, the skys the limit, but if we had 6-10 teams with 6-10k spectators within the first 3-5 years I would be extremely happy.

[Gordon]

49 minutes ago, GuillermoDelQuarto said:

as long as it was closer to the 8000 mark than the 2000 one, I would consider CPL a smashing success.

Long term, the skys the limit, but if we had 6-10 teams with 6-10k spectators within the first 3-5 years I would be extremely happy.

Ownership will be the key imo. Good marketing, club 'professionalism', and a good stadium experience can make up for the relatively low quality of the product and make 8-10k a viable target. 

[Complete Homer]

On 12/29/2016 at 10:47 PM, grasshopper1917 said:

I think if the league budgets for attendance of between 2000 and 6000 people per market they will be able to create a viable league. Also the reality is they will have to get out of 25,000-30,000 seat CFL football stadiums and *eventually* get into size specific soccer stadiums.

MLS has established itself as the top league in North America. They understood you cant have 15,000 fans in an 80,000 seat stadium. MLS would not be here today if they still had their teams playing in NFL stadiums. 

The CPL will also have to deal with MLS is the top flight league in Canada. We need to accept this fact and work with them n any way possible. In my opinion the CPL should have a mission to provide some spots for Canadian player to develop (I think 50% is enough) and provide some quality soccer entertainment.

NASL draws between about 2000 and 8000 fans a game. There is no reason to think number would be significantly higher in Canada for a league below MLS.

 

Also have to remember how long it take to transition out of those NFL stadiums. I expect the CFL stadiums to be the home of most clubs for a long time

[Tuscan]

I think people do need to expect these teams to be playing in CFL stadiums probably for at least 5 years. Teams like Halifax will be fortunate in a way as they'll be able to start in their own stadium. Teams like Regina and Winnipeg will be very hard pressed to get out of their CFL stadiums as their ownership will likely be the CFL ownership. 

[Alex D]

My attendance predicition for year 1 is 5-6,000. For year 10 I truly believe we could see over 10,000 a game on average. The ownership groups in play have some serious firepower, I wouldn't underestimate them. 

[Complete Homer]

18 minutes ago, Tuscan said:

I think people do need to expect these teams to be playing in CFL stadiums probably for at least 5 years. Teams like Halifax will be fortunate in a way as they'll be able to start in their own stadium. Teams like Regina and Winnipeg will be very hard pressed to get out of their CFL stadiums as their ownership will likely be the CFL ownership. 

Probably longer. Part of the motivation was finding more dates for their stadiums, I don't think many will be in a rush to construct SSS

[Tuscan]

6 minutes ago, Complete Homer said:

Probably longer. Part of the motivation was finding more dates for their stadiums, I don't think many will be in a rush to construct SSS

You're probably right. 

[Macksam]

20 hours ago, Complete Homer said:

Probably longer. Part of the motivation was finding more dates for their stadiums, I don't think many will be in a rush to construct SSS

This.

MLS' stadium issue wasn't rooted in size (although it definitely didn't help) but ownership and revenue control. When it comes to stadium size, Hamilton and Ottawa is definitely ideal in the sense they should eventually grow into them. Winnipeg and Regina have ones that are a little large but certainly not something that's impossible to fill (for the most part) in the future (10 years down the line).

[Kent]

On 18/01/2017 at 8:38 PM, Alex D said:

My attendance predicition for year 1 is 5-6,000. For year 10 I truly believe we could see over 10,000 a game on average. The ownership groups in play have some serious firepower, I wouldn't underestimate them. 

This comment got me curious. Now there is nothing saying the CPL attendance figures have to follow the same path as MLS, but I was curious what it would look like if they did follow the same path, but with a different starting point. Lots of factors could play a role in how it pans out though, especially the wild card of a potential hosting/co-hosting of the World Cup in 2026. Anyways, let's do this admittedly pointless exercise.

If the CPL has the same percentage growth/loss of attendance as MLS did, year to year, and started with 5000 average attendance in it's first year (let's say in 2018), then this is what the attendance figures would look like in the first 21 years.

2018 - 5,000
2019 - 4,200
2020 - 4,112
2021 - 4,104
2022 - 3,952
2023 - 4,299
2024 - 4,549
2025 - 4,285
2026 - 4,474
2027 - 4,344
2028 - 4,457
2029 - 4,822
2030 - 4,735
2031 - 4,612
2032 - 4,797
2033 - 5,142
2034 - 5,410
2035 - 5,350
2036 - 5,505
2037 - 6,204
2038 - 6,235

To take this a step further, since CPL will have a lot less room for expansion (into big markets at least) than MLS, I got curious about the average attendance of MLS teams that have played in every season of the league. That's Colorado, Columbus, Dallas, DC, LA, New England, New York/Jersey, and Kansas City. Using just these teams smoothes out the fluctuations more, since we are no longer dealing with the teams that ended up folding, and not getting big injections of well supported teams. If I use their rates of change in attendance, we get the following

2018 - 5,000
2019 - 4,172
2020 - 4,115
2021 - 4,083
2022 - 4,208
2023 - 4,572
2024 - 4,615
2025 - 4,284
2026 - 4,313
2027 - 4,091
2028 - 4,019
2029 - 4,653
2030 - 4,520
2031 - 3,828
2032 - 4,041
2033 - 4,442
2034 - 4,556
2035 - 4,703
2036 - 4,926
2037 - 5,066
2038 - 5,165

I hope CPL can grow faster than this, but only time will tell. Lots of factors will play a role.

[DannyFromToronto23]

The CanPL should be 24-32 games in a season from March to October with Eastern Confrence and Western Confrence and playoffs from October till November-December and the team with the most points in the regular season win a trophy ( just like MLS ) and CanPL Clubs will participate in the AmyWay Canadian championship as well 

Western Confrence

Victoria

Vancouver 

Bunaby/Surrey 

Edmonton

Calgary

Saskatoon

Regina

Winnipeg

Saskatoon

Thunder Bay ( They have the Thunder Bay chill and yes I know it's Ontario but it's northern Ontario)

 

Eastern Confrence 

Kitchener-Waterloo

London

Hamilton

Toronto (Midtown/Danforth or North York )

Laval 

Montreal-Downtown

Québec City

Moncton

Halifax

Mississauga 

Top 5 from each conference makes it the the playoffs and the team that finished in 1st in each conference skips all the way to the conference finals and the other 4 teams in the playoffs play Another club they will be 4 clubs in the quarterfinals then 2 in the semifinals and then whoever makes it to the confrence finals will play the team who finished in 1st during the regular season and each playoffs matches are 2 legs home and away and AND the winner of the PLAYOFFS & THE AMWAY CANADIAN CHAMPIONSHIP goes to the CONCACAF Champions league 

 

[Mister215Guy]

The CPL should be a proper league and superior to MLS. In the long term we should try to be #2 in CONCACAF and occasionally win the CCL. 

[Macksam]

On January 20, 2017 at 1:08 PM, Kent said:

This comment got me curious. Now there is nothing saying the CPL attendance figures have to follow the same path as MLS, but I was curious what it would look like if they did follow the same path, but with a different starting point. Lots of factors could play a role in how it pans out though, especially the wild card of a potential hosting/co-hosting of the World Cup in 2026. Anyways, let's do this admittedly pointless exercise.

If the CPL has the same percentage growth/loss of attendance as MLS did, year to year, and started with 5000 average attendance in it's first year (let's say in 2018), then this is what the attendance figures would look like in the first 21 years.

2018 - 5,000
2019 - 4,200
2020 - 4,112
2021 - 4,104
2022 - 3,952
2023 - 4,299
2024 - 4,549
2025 - 4,285
2026 - 4,474
2027 - 4,344
2028 - 4,457
2029 - 4,822
2030 - 4,735
2031 - 4,612
2032 - 4,797
2033 - 5,142
2034 - 5,410
2035 - 5,350
2036 - 5,505
2037 - 6,204
2038 - 6,235

To take this a step further, since CPL will have a lot less room for expansion (into big markets at least) than MLS, I got curious about the average attendance of MLS teams that have played in every season of the league. That's Colorado, Columbus, Dallas, DC, LA, New England, New York/Jersey, and Kansas City. Using just these teams smoothes out the fluctuations more, since we are no longer dealing with the teams that ended up folding, and not getting big injections of well supported teams. If I use their rates of change in attendance, we get the following

2018 - 5,000
2019 - 4,172
2020 - 4,115
2021 - 4,083
2022 - 4,208
2023 - 4,572
2024 - 4,615
2025 - 4,284
2026 - 4,313
2027 - 4,091
2028 - 4,019
2029 - 4,653
2030 - 4,520
2031 - 3,828
2032 - 4,041
2033 - 4,442
2034 - 4,556
2035 - 4,703
2036 - 4,926
2037 - 5,066
2038 - 5,165

I hope CPL can grow faster than this, but only time will tell. Lots of factors will play a role.

I hope and expect the trajectory to be much better in that time. The 86ers began play in 1986 and as the Whitecaps in 2006, the club made public their intentions to build a 15000 seat stadium, which would have been consistently sold out in a D2 league considering the club had gathered 10000 or so season ticket deposits for it. This was well before their intentions to go the MLS route. So, in twenty years, I expect 15000 on average. 

If the league had a 5000 average in 2018 and still just that in 2038, I would consider the league stagnant and in dire need of head office changes.

[Kent]

8 minutes ago, Macksam said:

I hope and expect the trajectory to be much better in that time. The 86ers began play in 1986 and as the Whitecaps in 2006, the club made public their intentions to build a 15000 seat stadium, which would have been consistently sold out in a D2 league considering the club had gathered 10000 or so season ticket deposits for it. This was well before their intentions to go the MLS route. So, in twenty years, I expect 15000 on average. 

If the league had a 5000 average in 2018 and still just that in 2038, I would consider the league stagnant and in dire need of head office changes.

That was the point of the exercise. To reel in expectations that the league would grow each and every year. You used the Whitecaps as a benchmark, but they were the absolute best case scenario. How were the Winnipeg Fury doing in 2006? The Kitchener Kickers? The Toronto Blizzard? The Edmonton Brickmen? The Hamilton Steelers? Etc. Etc. Etc.

Its not realistic for the attendance of each year to go higher and higher than the previous years. The first year may see a curiosity spike. World Cup years may see a soccer buzz spike, or conversely a "this league isn't good enough for me" dip. Well supported teams might do poorly and affect their attendance a large amount. Poorly supported teams might do well and not make a difference in attendance. Canadian MLS teams may have a good year and cannibalize the CPL a bit, or might have a bad year and send more fans to the CPL. We might have an overly rainy year in some key cities that drives down attendance. Seriously, we are a fair weather soccer country for the most part.

I am just trying to caution against the thinking that in year 1 we will have x amount of support and it will grow y percent every year so in 20 years we will have huge soccer specific stadiums packed to the gills with enthusiastic support. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, just trying to use real world numbers to keep in mind more realistic scenarios, instead of what we all hope and dream will happen.

Its late. Time for me to go to bed and dream of North Toronto Nitros beating the Vancouver Whitecaps in front of a sold out raucous crowd at Varsity stadium to clinch a CCL spot.

[Admin]

On 12/31/2016 at 2:51 PM, Complete Homer said:

Also have to remember how long it take to transition out of those NFL stadiums. I expect the CFL stadiums to be the home of most clubs for a long time

They won't be leaving the CFL stadiums, at least not some of them.  Considering Hamilton was party built predicated on a soccer team being there. 

We are stuck with CFL stadiums in several places as far as I can tell. It's a serious impediment to building things. 

[Alex D]

Hamilton will be an interesting case. They will play in a venue considered huge but is actually about standard MLS size these days. They have stated that their club will be run at an MLS level in terms of sales, marketing and operations. It makes you wonder what their actual goals are and how close they will get. 

[Macksam]

16 hours ago, Kent said:

That was the point of the exercise. To reel in expectations that the league would grow each and every year. You used the Whitecaps as a benchmark, but they were the absolute best case scenario. How were the Winnipeg Fury doing in 2006? The Kitchener Kickers? The Toronto Blizzard? The Edmonton Brickmen? The Hamilton Steelers? Etc. Etc. Etc.

They were gone by that time, which means our professional soccer history is limited to a few success stories sticking it out and developing into something bigger or teams eventually folding, nothing has stayed consistently mediocre and survived. FC Edmonton would have been long gone if it wasn't for the ownership and now that team is slowly turning it around after 5 years. By 20? I can see them moving into something big and soccer exclusive if their current trajectory continues, which I think it will. 

8 hours ago, Alex D said:

Hamilton will be an interesting case. They will play in a venue considered huge but is actually about standard MLS size these days. They have stated that their club will be run at an MLS level in terms of sales, marketing and operations. It makes you wonder what their actual goals are and how close they will get. 

Yeah, IMO, the venue is perfect for something they can grow into. 

[Dominic94]

Am i alone in thinking that most markets could actually get 6-8k in attendance in their first season ?

[Alex D]

You're not alone. I think those numbers are a reasonable expectation if the league is launched properly with an accesible tv package. But if they bungle it up it could be depressingly low. 

[baulderdash77]

On 2017-03-11 at 8:31 AM, Alex D said:

Hamilton will be an interesting case. They will play in a venue considered huge but is actually about standard MLS size these days. They have stated that their club will be run at an MLS level in terms of sales, marketing and operations. It makes you wonder what their actual goals are and how close they will get. 

I think Hamilton will be getting crowds over 10,000 per game to most games.

If they had a good international friendly or an exhibition (or Canadian Championship) against TFC I would expect over 15,000.

Yes the stadium is large but it's well built and there will be a strong fan base to start.

[-Hammer-]

On 3/12/2017 at 7:41 PM, baulderdash77 said:

I think Hamilton will be getting crowds over 10,000 per game to most games.

If they had a good international friendly or an exhibition (or Canadian Championship) against TFC I would expect over 15,000.

Yes the stadium is large but it's well built and there will be a strong fan base to start.

I'm not going to paint that rosy a picture. I mean, yes we have shown we will support soccer, but keep in mind. Our women's team is at the top of the world, using that friendly to gauge interest in the NASL grade (at least initially) men's team isn't the best of logic. As far as the Pan-Ams, also a hard gauge, because you have a lot of multicultural, international pride going on there.

As far as Hamilton, I expect Ottawa NASL levels and slowly improving as time goes on. I fully expect a Hamilton team to put pressure on TFC to not drop the ball, because I know if they try to jack up tickets, or start treating their fans like crap, there will be people who will start taking the GO Train westbound.

My bigger concern is how well they draw out West where CFL ball is king in the summer and the grassroots soccer infrastrucutre is a fraction of what it is here in the golden horseshoe.

[Complete Homer]

13 minutes ago, -Hammer- said:

My bigger concern is how well they draw out West where CFL ball is king in the summer and the grassroots soccer infrastrucutre is a fraction of what it is here in the golden horseshoe.

To me, it'll be pretty interesting to see how the CFL owners market out west. Either the synergistic marketing will work really well, or soccer will look like the CFL's ugly stepsister

[-Hammer-]

1 minute ago, Complete Homer said:

To me, it'll be pretty interesting to see how the CFL owners market out west. Either the synergistic marketing will work really well, or soccer will look like the CFL's ugly stepsister

My bigger concern is you have the reverse Toronto effect.

Let's be honest, there is legit contempt that many soccer supporters in the GTA have for the Argos and the CFL. I know this, because I know Hamiltonians who feel the same way about the Ti-Cats, and they are a CFL team whose a success story. I frequent the CFL forums, and there are people who are regretably equally (and to be honest, absurdly) resentful of soccer and Toronto for dragging down the CFL and treating it like it's sub-par.

It comes as no surprised as for every soccer fan declaring that CFL Football as a subpar, dying sport for neanderthals there is a CFL fan declaring all but UEFA soccer as a subpar, sissy sport, that still hasn't gained substanial traction and is full of divers.

My concern is in places like Sask where the Roughriders are a provincial obsession, and in Alberta where the Dinos and Stamps rule the summer and the Eddies has been losing money for years, both places that the National team seldom goes, it might keep them perpetually down in the low 2-3 thousands like FC Edmonton. That said, the Foothills seem to get good support, so hopefully I'm off base on that one.

Given we don't know if the backers are even going to be CFL owners (and I'll be honest, given the community ownership of Edmonton, Sask and Winnipeg, I think is a hard sell for them) one can only speculate. Calgary, I'm less worried, mainly because the only owner I see is CSE and they know how to market.

[Complete Homer]

9 hours ago, -Hammer- said:

My concern is in places like Sask where the Roughriders are a provincial obsession, and in Alberta where the Dinos and Stamps rule the summer and the Eddies has been losing money for years, both places that the National team seldom goes, it might keep them perpetually down in the low 2-3 thousands like FC Edmonton. That said, the Foothills seem to get good support, so hopefully I'm off base on that one.

Given we don't know if the backers are even going to be CFL owners (and I'll be honest, given the community ownership of Edmonton, Sask and Winnipeg, I think is a hard sell for them) one can only speculate. Calgary, I'm less worried, mainly because the only owner I see is CSE and they know how to market.

That is sort of my point though - I think teams owned and marketed by CFL groups have the best chance out west to overcome that. Instead of perceiving it as an invading soccer team, it can be a spin off of something they already identify with. 

I'd be curious to hear Ottawa fans to hear how the fanbases interplay, though it would be a bit different considering the RedBlacks don't have the same history as other CFL teams. 

As for the owners... I feel somewhat confident after the kitchener meeting that there is CFL involvement in at least a couple western cities

[-Hammer-]

5 hours ago, Complete Homer said:

That is sort of my point though - I think teams owned and marketed by CFL groups have the best chance out west to overcome that. Instead of perceiving it as an invading soccer team, it can be a spin off of something they already identify with. 

I'd be curious to hear Ottawa fans to hear how the fanbases interplay, though it would be a bit different considering the RedBlacks don't have the same history as other CFL teams. 

As for the owners... I feel somewhat confident after the kitchener meeting that there is CFL involvement in at least a couple western cities

I've visited the Ottawa a few times and had some conversations with the Bytown Boys and random folk, and for the most part there is little in the way of resentment regarding the RedBlacks, mainly because the RedBlacks success has helped elevate the Fury and the Fury are never in any way perceived as interfering with the RedBlacks. The Fury are more regarded as a curiosity who shrug at them as not my cup of team by most diehard Football fans.

Of course, there are still turf purists and guys who feel soccer is for divers, but you get that in the Hammer. It's a very similar outlook to many in Hamilton feel, probably because the ownership group is one and the same. As one fan put it. "If it's a team on turf, or a team playing on lines, that's better then no team at all". That said, the Fury have traveled a long, tough road and are still standing, and the fact they are on Turf and there are never any issues co-promoting the teams (There is ample RedBlacks, Fury and 67's branding all over the facility). I suppose a major advantage of having the same colors and owners.

However, if say Winnipeg's ownership ends up being True North, does that leave the possibility of ruffling the feathers of Bomber fans? If Saskatchewan's ownership ends up playing in a different facility then the riders, and trying a go at it alone, will they succeed? It hasn't exactly worked out swimmingly for the Faths.