matty Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 5 minutes ago, Kent said: According to Fig. 1 and 2 in the link below (near the end of the article), it's around a 50% chance. If you call Toronto and Montreal equal strength (probably accurate) there is a bit less than 50% chance of TFC progressing. If you call Toronto the stronger of the two (based on their seeding) there is a bit more than 50% chance of TFC progressing. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279211418_What_is_a_good_result_in_the_first_leg_of_a_two-legged_football_match Not with this score. Just going off of European results that Home first team advances about 42% of the time when the first game goes 3-2. http://benno.newsvine.com/_news/2010/03/13/4014430-football-statistics-two-leg-knock-out-probabilities-after-1st-leg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackdude Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 5 minutes ago, matty said: Not with this score. Just going off of European results that Home first team advances about 42% of the time when the first game goes 3-2. http://benno.newsvine.com/_news/2010/03/13/4014430-football-statistics-two-leg-knock-out-probabilities-after-1st-leg ESPN's model has Montreal as a slight favourite 50.3 to 49.7. I think you can probably flip a coin on who is going to advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 While we are talking about foul, not a foul, the ref missed a glaring one that the announcers pointed out as clever or something like that, not realizing it's a foul. I'm talking about when one of the Montreal players flicked the ball up in the air and then headed it back to his goalkeeper. To be fair, I thought that was considered a back pass and an indirect free kick where the keeper handles the ball. Turns out, the spot of the foul is where the person passes from, and he should be given a yellow card. From the Laws of the Game, Law 12, second last bullet point on caustions for unsporting behaviour (page 125 of this http://www.fifa.com/mm/Document/FootballDevelopment/Refereeing/02/36/01/11/LawsofthegamewebEN_Neutral.pdf ) uses a deliberate trick while the ball is in play to pass the ball to his own goalkeeper with his head, chest, knee, etc. in order to circumvent the Law, irrespective of whether the goalkeeper touches the ball with his hands or not. The offence is committed by the player in attempting to circumvent both the letter and the spirit of Law 12 and play is restarted with an indirect free kick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 14 minutes ago, matty said: Not with this score. Just going off of European results that Home first team advances about 42% of the time when the first game goes 3-2. http://benno.newsvine.com/_news/2010/03/13/4014430-football-statistics-two-leg-knock-out-probabilities-after-1st-leg Neither of our links are perfect. Mine doesn't differentiate between 2-1 and 3-2, obviously 3-2 is a better scoreline for the away team. Your link doesn't account for difference in quality of the teams. That 42% number is closer to the number in my link for the home-first team being the weaker of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matty Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 4 minutes ago, Blackdude said: ESPN's model has Montreal as a slight favourite 50.3 to 49.7. I think you can probably flip a coin on who is going to advance. I'd say it's a coin flip but do cautiously think Toronto's got the edge right now. Aside from stats, they are very hard to beat at BMO and I think Montreal are under more pressure right now. I think we're going to either see Toronto win thanks to away goals or a shootout which I think Montreal would win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtlfan Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, matty said: I'd say it's a coin flip but do cautiously think Toronto's got the edge right now. Aside from stats, they are very hard to beat at BMO and I think Montreal are under more pressure right now. I think we're going to either see Toronto win thanks to away goals or a shootout which I think Montreal would win. A draw is a strong possibility so Montreal does not need to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackdude Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 1 minute ago, matty said: I'd say it's a coin flip but do cautiously think Toronto's got the edge right now. Aside from stats, they are very hard to beat at BMO and I think Montreal are under more pressure right now. I think we're going to either see Toronto win thanks to away goals or a shootout which I think Montreal would win. Checked their results this year and how many times each club would advance based on their home/away results this year. TFC this year would be 11-9-1 at home. Impact this year was 13-7 away from home. Here's the thing Impact has been great away from home especially in the home stretch winning 4 of their last 7 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matty Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 41 minutes ago, mtlfan said: A draw is a strong possibility so Montreal does not need to win. 100% True. 31 minutes ago, Blackdude said: Checked their results this year and how many times each club would advance based on their home/away results this year. TFC this year would be 11-9-1 at home. Impact this year was 13-7 away from home. Here's the thing Impact has been great away from home especially in the home stretch winning 4 of their last 7 games. I wouldn't say they're great on the road as they are great in the playoffs. I do expect this to be a tight game. I think if toronto get that needed goal or scores 2 they will hold on but if montreal scores first they'll win the series with a tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gian-Luca Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Kent said: While we are talking about foul, not a foul, the ref missed a glaring one that the announcers pointed out as clever or something like that, not realizing it's a foul. I'm talking about when one of the Montreal players flicked the ball up in the air and then headed it back to his goalkeeper. To be fair, I thought that was considered a back pass and an indirect free kick where the keeper handles the ball. Turns out, the spot of the foul is where the person passes from, and he should be given a yellow card. From the Laws of the Game, Law 12, second last bullet point on caustions for unsporting behaviour (page 125 of this http://www.fifa.com/mm/Document/FootballDevelopment/Refereeing/02/36/01/11/LawsofthegamewebEN_Neutral.pdf ) uses a deliberate trick while the ball is in play to pass the ball to his own goalkeeper with his head, chest, knee, etc. in order to circumvent the Law, irrespective of whether the goalkeeper touches the ball with his hands or not. The offence is committed by the player in attempting to circumvent both the letter and the spirit of Law 12 and play is restarted with an indirect free kick Interesting - I remember thinking that at the time this happened that I had thought you couldn't do that (flick the ball up to your head and head it back to the keeper and have the keeper touch it. It wasn't commented upon or whistled so I thought that perhaps I was wrong (because you don't see this tried very much). It didn't seem like a big deal at the time either as nobody on the field complained. Its an obscure rule, but one that the Ref should still know about and called as it was not like he didn't see it happen. I am curious though whether the indirect free kick that would have been awarded is at the spot of the player doing the trick to circumvent the law or the spot of the keeper where he touches the ball with his hands. I'm guessing because the rule above says "regardless of whether the goalkeeper touches the ball with his hands or not" that its at the spot of the trickery (as presumably the play should have been whistled before the ball even reaches the keeper), so the free kick would have been just outside the box. If its from the spot of the catch of the ball then the free kick would have been from inside the 18. As for the Altidore foul, I still haven't seen again the angle I was talking about earlier (facing the Montreal goal) but the replays from behind that they show on the MLS website highlights definitely show Altidtore giving a shove with one hand. By the letter of the law that ought to have been called but what I think happens on the play to cause the non-call is that Cabrera just flops too easily/dramatically and the Ref just doesn't buy it from the angle he has. The play that had me screaming at my television on the night from a TFC fan point of view was the play on Ricketts where he seemed to get undercut in the air in the box when going up in the air for a header - I'd like to see that play again as well because I thought there was a legit. shout for a PK at the time. So there's an argument that things evened themselves out over the course of the match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 13 minutes ago, Gian-Luca said: Interesting - I remember thinking that at the time this happened that I had thought you couldn't do that (flick the ball up to your head and head it back to the keeper and have the keeper touch it. It wasn't commented upon or whistled so I thought that perhaps I was wrong (because you don't see this tried very much). It didn't seem like a big deal at the time either as nobody on the field complained. Its an obscure rule, but one that the Ref should still know about and called as it was not like he didn't see it happen. I am curious though whether the indirect free kick that would have been awarded is at the spot of the player doing the trick to circumvent the law or the spot of the keeper where he touches the ball with his hands. I'm guessing because the rule above says "regardless of whether the goalkeeper touches the ball with his hands or not" that its at the spot of the trickery (as presumably the play should have been whistled before the ball even reaches the keeper), so the free kick would have been just outside the box. If its from the spot of the catch of the ball then the free kick would have been from inside the 18. As for the Altidore foul, I still haven't seen again the angle I was talking about earlier (facing the Montreal goal) but the replays from behind that they show on the MLS website highlights definitely show Altidtore giving a shove with one hand. By the letter of the law that ought to have been called but what I think happens on the play to cause the non-call is that Cabrera just flops too easily/dramatically and the Ref just doesn't buy it from the angle he has. The play that had me screaming at my television on the night from a TFC fan point of view was the play on Ricketts where he seemed to get undercut in the air in the box when going up in the air for a header - I'd like to see that play again as well because I thought there was a legit. shout for a PK at the time. So there's an argument that things evened themselves out over the course of the match The foul is at the spot of the trickery, not where the keeper is. When that play happened I yelled and pointed, I might have even got out of my seat a bit. I was sure it was against the rules, then I remembered that I was taught that rule in a reffing course 20 years ago, so thought maybe the rule had been changed. That's why I looked it up today to see if it had in fact changed. Nope. I'm a bit surprised that the ref seemingly didn't know the rule. I'm very surprised that the ref + both assistants + the 4th official didn't do anything about it. It's an obscure rule if you know the rules from watching games, because nobody does it. But I assumed nobody does it, because players know the rule. The rule book isn't that big, they should have known the rule and called it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moldy9 Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 As an Impact fan I do feel TFC have the advantage with the two away goals going back to t-dot but I do have confidence that Montreal can get a goal or two away and win in Toronto. The bad thing is had Montreal won 3-0 or 3-1 is that they might have gone into next weeks game too relaxed and complacent. But now that everything is to play for they can't afford to settle for a loss. They need to win or hold onto a draw. They need to get the first goal. Did anyone else find that the crappy playing surface negatively affected the rhythm of the game. The ball was hard to control and often skipped. Lots of errors committed. Also guys didn't look like they could drive and cut and turn like they normally would. The players at times looked like they were bowling pins, upright while gingerly dribbling. I believe playing on grass will improve Piatti, Giovinco and Drogba's game from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califax Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Thought the reffing was terrible. Guzman seemed to go out of his way to keep cards in his pocket. "Let them play" really doesn't apply when people are leaving legs in and going through the back. Not calling Jozy on the shove was the precedent he had set but calling little else. Except when GIo was maimed at the edge of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rightback Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 TFC played poorly but still managed to snatch 2 goals when down 3-0 which is pretty impressive. I expect Giovinco, Bradley (great goal though) and Cooper to be better next game, they were definitely below par. I've been disappointed not seeing Cheyrou on the pitch for this run, since Osorio didn't have a particularly good game maybe he'll get a start on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyslexic nam Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 42 minutes ago, Califax said: Thought the reffing was terrible. Guzman seemed to go out of his way to keep cards in his pocket. "Let them play" really doesn't apply when people are leaving legs in and going through the back. Not calling Jozy on the shove was the precedent he had set but calling little else. Except when GIo was maimed at the edge of the area. Yeah, there were a few late challenges with no chance of getting the ball that probably warranted cards IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob.notenboom Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Bernier's no-look pass to spring Oduro was so classy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gian-Luca Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 3 hours ago, Kent said: But I assumed nobody does it, because players know the rule. The rule book isn't that big, they should have known the rule and called it. If players know the rule then you'd think the entire TFC team (including the players on the bench and the players not even dressed who were at the game as well - I spotted Ashton Morgan on the sidelines even though I don't think he was dressed) would have been all over the officials. My guess is many players don't know the rule because you don't see players attempt it that often (and thus have it whistled down) and the reason you don't see players attempt it that often is because defenders usually don't have the time to act like a hot dog during a game like that. IIRC this play came when Montreal were up 2 or 3 nil and TFC were all over the place, which is one reason why he had so much time to pull off that stunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gian-Luca Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Moldy9 said: Did anyone else find that the crappy playing surface negatively affected the rhythm of the game. I'd be surprised if anyone didn't find that to be the case. The crappiness of the turf was dominating the media coverage and talk the day before the game and a number of players played as though they were mindful of not being hurt. Next time, I hope they bring in temporary grass, or just stick to Stade Saputo. I think the more casual fans thought it was a great game because of all the goals, but I didn't think it was the highest quality game we could have seen from these two teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farrelld Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Moldy9 said: Did anyone else find that the crappy playing surface negatively affected the rhythm of the game. The ball was hard to control and often skipped. Lots of errors committed. Also guys didn't look like they could drive and cut and turn like they normally would. The players at times looked like they were bowling pins, upright while gingerly dribbling. I believe playing on grass will improve Piatti, Giovinco and Drogba's game from yesterday. Hopefully the play will be better next week but it might also be worse depending on how they deal with the football game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unnamed Trialist Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 6 hours ago, Kent said: While we are talking about foul, not a foul, the ref missed a glaring one that the announcers pointed out as clever or something like that, not realizing it's a foul. I'm talking about when one of the Montreal players flicked the ball up in the air and then headed it back to his goalkeeper. To be fair, I thought that was considered a back pass and an indirect free kick where the keeper handles the ball. Turns out, the spot of the foul is where the person passes from, and he should be given a yellow card. From the Laws of the Game, Law 12, second last bullet point on caustions for unsporting behaviour (page 125 of this http://www.fifa.com/mm/Document/FootballDevelopment/Refereeing/02/36/01/11/LawsofthegamewebEN_Neutral.pdf ) uses a deliberate trick while the ball is in play to pass the ball to his own goalkeeper with his head, chest, knee, etc. in order to circumvent the Law, irrespective of whether the goalkeeper touches the ball with his hands or not. The offence is committed by the player in attempting to circumvent both the letter and the spirit of Law 12 and play is restarted with an indirect free kick I know that rule having read it with attention a few years ago. I missed the play though, remind us what minute it was, will you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unnamed Trialist Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 A couple things from the match. -Great atmosphere, and boy a lot of shirts sold there, pretty good overall impression of the stadium, fans, ambience. Very proud to see. -Impact rode it well, and finished, I am not sure luckily but rode the momentum and finished. TFC played fairly well even through that, they were at least trying to play their game, but never got it going. -Impact third goal makes you realize how much TFC keeping has improved over last season. Meaning last year you may have shrugged, this play you say he should have gotten it. Without that being a recrimination as the play in goal has been fairly consistent overall. -Going back to Toronto, I think the edge is still Impact's. Basically because as the game starts, 0-0, they are through. So TFC has to push, not foolishly, but insistently, to get the series back in their court. And that gives Impact their beloved counters, like the away at Red Bulls, countering an increasingly nervous TFC. This is the key for the first 60 minutes. For Impact, sit back and take no risks, try to catch a counter. TFC, try to control the game will not being exposed and remember that a min. 90 goal making it 1-0 puts them through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyslexic nam Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 There is no way the Impact keep TFC off the scoresheet at home. I can see them bagging a couple with the home crowd behind them and the familiar pitch. The real trick will be to keep the impact from grabbing a goal or two on the counter. I think if they can get back to an effective pressing game where everyone defends as a team, they will pull it off - but they need Bradley to rediscover his mojo for the full 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gian-Luca Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said: I know that rule having read it with attention a few years ago. I missed the play though, remind us what minute it was, will you? Around the 48 minute mark. I am re-watching the game now, it was a strange play as Montreal won a free kick in midfield and then sent it all the way back to the corner of their own end above the 18 yard box. TFC had retreated into their own half to defend the free kick which was sent into into the Montreal half instead, so Cabrera had all day to pull off his hot dog moves. It was 2-0 at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yohan Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gian-Luca Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 1 hour ago, dsqpr said: As for the Altidore push, they showed one angle on TV once where it looked like a push and another angle multiple times that showed there was nothing to it and the ref got it right. Having finally re-watched the game and this play in particular it can really go two ways. The angle from behind the goal makes Altidore look guilty as sin. The angle from the other side (that you refer to above) makes it look like Cabrera fell on his ass of his own accord, and that's the view the Ref had as well. I probably did him a disservice before by saying he flopped - having had a chance to re-watch it and slow it down, its apparent that Cabrera is off balance already and the slips on the crappy turf. Altidore's one-handed shove (if it was that) just doesn't look like it had enough force to force Cabrera off the ball or to the ground and that's why I think the Ref lets it go. It would probably be too cheeky of me to say that if the game was played on grass, Cabrera probably would have kept his footing, so I won't say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trillium Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 On 11/23/2016 at 1:02 AM, Moldy9 said: So i take it Garber lost his shit on Saputo and Saputo lost his shit on Legendre. How embarrassing for IMFC and the MLS with this game being broadcasted not only in US and Canada but all of the Americas and the world. Why this crap wasn't noticed earlier who knows? I bet IMFC will get fined or some other reprocussion. It's the fault of the MLS appointed match commissioner, she/he is supposed to ensure its all done properly not just eat and drink assuming staff of the club get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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