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FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system


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It looks like the FIFA rankings have been updated today. I've never seen the rankings listed to 2 decimal places before, so that seems to be new. No more rounding up or down I guess. The current

Things sure were super bleak for Canada Soccer about 6-7 years ago.  Those were a depressing time.  It’s crazy how big the transformation has been in the last few years. From here out there is no

Canada's ELO history from 1885. Peaked after winning Gold Cup. Now recovering from 2016 bottom.  

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22 hours ago, Shway said:

So at this rate, it will benefit us for the 2023 Gold Cup?

Yes, if we can move into that top 4 before the 2023 Gold Cup draw that will be big for us. However, before that the 2022-23 Nations League would also use these CONCACAF rankings. According to wikipedia that competition is supposed to start in May of 2022, no word on when the draw would be yet. If we can win 4 games in June (big ask, but possible) and Honduras does nothing in the Nations League playoffs we might be able to overtake them. If not, we would definitely be within striking distance when the Octagonal rolls around.

P.S. Still working on trying to reverse engineer this CONCACAF ranking formula. Some stuff just doesn't make sense to me. I'm certain I won't get something very exact, but hopefully I can get it more accurate than what I have now, which is in the right neighborhood a third of the time, and wildly off the rest of the time.

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It looks like the FIFA rankings have been updated today. I've never seen the rankings listed to 2 decimal places before, so that seems to be new. No more rounding up or down I guess.

The current points for the top 10 in CONCACAF:

Mexico 1629.56
USA 1555.42
Jamaica 1432.65
Costa Rica 1423.40
Honduras 1361.21
El Salvador 1341.24
Canada 1340.56
Curaçao 1323.06
Panama 1321.97
Haiti 1290.62

We're now just 0.68 points behind El Salvador for 6th and 20.65 points behind Honduras for 5th.

Hopefully there are 4 victories in June to add to our total. 😀

Edited by jtpc
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Since they went to the new ranking formula there have been a lot more teams tied in ranking, so I guess that's why they started showing the decimal places. More transparency if there happens to be a tie where a line is drawn for determining different pots for a draw or something.

If they were still rounding, Canada and El Salvador would be tied right now.

An insignificant but nice little thing is that all the CONCACAF teams ahead of Canada dropped points in these rankings, with the exception of the USA. Curacao and Panama both gained a little bit of ground on us (2 and 1 point respectively).

Now we just have to wait 2 months for more games.

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The ELO ratings have us 4th in the region and trailing Costa Rica by only 3 spots.  We are 55th in the rankings and I think when we made the World Cup we were about 40th.  Things looking up.  Also they anticipate game results and we are overwhelming favourites for the two games in June.  I realize Suriname has changed but I think our boys should be favoured and are truly in the mix for 3rd in the region.

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It would be nice if the US defeated Honduras tomorrow in their Nations League Semifinal, bringing them back a bit from 1361 points, as we stand a really good chance to gain points this window and come up from 1340. If that happened, Honduras would still have a 3rd place match to try and get some points and they also have a friendly with Mexico after Nations League (which could also be good for us). If we could run the table with 4 wins this window, the points battle for 5th in CONCACAF could be really interesting by mid-June. Let's go CanMNT! 😀

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1 hour ago, jtpc said:

It would be nice if the US defeated Honduras tomorrow in their Nations League Semifinal, bringing them back a bit from 1361 points, as we stand a really good chance to gain points this window and come up from 1340. If that happened, Honduras would still have a 3rd place match to try and get some points and they also have a friendly with Mexico after Nations League (which could also be good for us). If we could run the table with 4 wins this window, the points battle for 5th in CONCACAF could be really interesting by mid-June. Let's go CanMNT! 😀

"Negative points in knockout stages of final competitions will not affect teams' ratings." I'm pretty sure the loser of the Nations League semi-finals won't lose points.

If we beat Aruba and Suriname I think we will get about 10 points total.

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1 hour ago, Ruffian said:

Are there any short term benefits for getting ahead of Honduras? World Cup qualifying doesn't depend on it anymore.

No, just pride. I think the next time FIFA rankings have a chance of making a material impact on Canada in any way is if Canada qualifies for the World Cup, then maybe the rankings will be used for putting teams in pots for the World Cup draw? I'm not even sure about that.

And for the record, we are currently ranked 70th, and for the last World Cup the lowest ranked team that wasn't in the bottom pot had a ranking of 34, so we have a ways to go!

Edited by Kent
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Things sure were super bleak for Canada Soccer about 6-7 years ago.  Those were a depressing time.  It’s crazy how big the transformation has been in the last few years.

From here out there is no “gaming the system”.  Just win games that matter- make the World Cup.  Top 4 finishes in the Gold Cup.  Top 4 finishes in the next CONCACAF League.  
 

With our team’s talent it’s just about winning.  Canada should ascend to 3rd in CONCACAF this cycle, no if ands or buts.

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Could one of our points gurus calculate how many points these 2 matches against Haiti might be worth? So far this window, it seems like we could have 10 more points in the bank (I saw a website that said 3.3 for defeating Aruba and 6.9 for defeating Suriname, but I can't find it now). That would put us around 1,350. Haiti could have close to 1,300 with their 2 wins. Since Haiti is ranked much higher than Suriname and Suriname got us around 7 points, I'm hoping these 2 matches could each be worth 10+ points.

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7 minutes ago, jtpc said:

Could one of our points gurus calculate how many points these 2 matches against Haiti might be worth? So far this window, it seems like we could have 10 more points in the bank (I saw a website that said 3.3 for defeating Aruba and 6.9 for defeating Suriname, but I can't find it now). That would put us around 1,350. Haiti could have close to 1,300 with their 2 wins. Since Haiti is ranked much higher than Suriname and Suriname got us around 7 points, I'm hoping these 2 matches could each be worth 10+ points.

This is probably the website you are referring to. http://football-ranking.com/calculate?view=scheduledMatch

That website doesn't have the Haiti match on it yet though. I'm calculating each game to be about 11.3 points for a win, -1.2 for a draw, and -13.7 for a loss.

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Roughly 32 points, which would get us to around 1372. If everyone else stays in the same spot that would move us from 70th to 63rd, passing El Salvador, Iraq, Honduras, Albania, Saudi Arabia, Montenegro, and Slovenia.

Note that the 2 CONCACAF countries I just listed should be gaining points. Honduras beat Costa Rica in a shootout, and El Salvador have won 2 games so far, with 2 more against Saint Kitts coming up. We might pass El Salvador since they were less than 1 point ahead of us and our opponents overall are stronger than theirs (Aruba > USVI, Suriname < Antigua, Haiti > Saint Kitts).

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Just looked at the ELO Rankings and we are now tied with Costa Rica for 3rd in Concacaf and 52nd overall.  This falls in line with what many of us believe/hope.  2 victories vs Haiti and we will leave CR behind and fall into 3rd behind Mexico and the USA. 14th and 22nd.  
Haiti is ranked 68th so both teams are punching above their FIFA rankings.  While the games will be somewhat competitive, we should win both and move on up!

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On 6/9/2021 at 8:51 AM, jtpc said:

Could one of our points gurus calculate how many points these 2 matches against Haiti might be worth? So far this window, it seems like we could have 10 more points in the bank (I saw a website that said 3.3 for defeating Aruba and 6.9 for defeating Suriname, but I can't find it now). That would put us around 1,350. Haiti could have close to 1,300 with their 2 wins. Since Haiti is ranked much higher than Suriname and Suriname got us around 7 points, I'm hoping these 2 matches could each be worth 10+ points.

 

On 6/9/2021 at 9:05 AM, Kent said:

This is probably the website you are referring to. http://football-ranking.com/calculate?view=scheduledMatch

That website doesn't have the Haiti match on it yet though. I'm calculating each game to be about 11.3 points for a win, -1.2 for a draw, and -13.7 for a loss.

 

I made these plots a while back when we were scrambling to see how to get into the Hex based on FIFA rankings. You can look up all the scenarios for a win, draw, or loss if you know the ranking points of each opponent and Canada. In Haiti's case they are -50 on the x-axis. USA (for upcoming GC) is +215. Kent's calculation is correct.

Win:

image.png.43d2db0e7c466ac3a4338c9042edb2de.png

Draw:

image.png.6d008648727f44f9d8185df9d3b698b7.png

Loss:

image.png.e2d328e9a09d30bd6316ebb4ecb6b412.png

 

 

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