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The NASL sky is falling


Steedman

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22 hours ago, nazzer said:

Care to elaborate for anyone that may not be in the know/?

Ottawa Fury are rumored to be leaving, Fort Lauderdale Strikers can't pay staff. Rayo OK in shambles. Minnesota United leaving for MLS next season. League attendance has tanked. Not a good time to be a team & league supporter.

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3 hours ago, Steedman said:

Ottawa Fury are rumored to be leaving, Fort Lauderdale Strikers can't pay staff. Rayo OK in shambles. Minnesota United leaving for MLS next season. League attendance has tanked. Not a good time to be a team & league supporter.

Strikers might be ok

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/09/23/fort-lauderdale-strikers-handed-qatari-lifeline/

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7 hours ago, Steedman said:

Ottawa Fury are rumored to be leaving, Fort Lauderdale Strikers can't pay staff. Rayo OK in shambles. Minnesota United leaving for MLS next season. League attendance has tanked. Not a good time to be a team & league supporter.

You seem to be a bit behind in the news.

 

Fury rumored now to be either staying in NASL for 2017 or taking a haitus until CPL, Strikers are receiving a loan for funding while they find new investors or owners (two billionares interested). Rayo OKC after cutbacks in August has now restarted TV ads and marketing for its matches after its new management team has worked thru the transition and got up to speed and from people on the ground in OKC the club will return in NASL in 2017. NASL Attendance is down but still close to 5K per game, not bad and quite a bit better than the Div 3 Usl.

 

MLS also has had issues in its early years with contraction and preparing papers to fold in 2001 and worked thru them, NASL will work thru theirs as well.

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The huge problem for NASL is that all their best markets aspire to MLS and MLS is more than happy to take the best and leave the worst. NASL can hold on only as long as they can get new teams to join.

The perception as a pathway to MLS may start to suffer because USL teams are now "promoting" to MLS or announcing their intentions to do so. If you can still have a pathway to MLS then who needs the larger expenses of NASL? Travel and franchise fees are both much higher than USL. So until you can establish a fan base, or see if that is even feasible in your market, why not go the low cost route? Save the money for the MLS expansion fee.

 

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On 9/24/2016 at 1:16 PM, TRM said:

The huge problem for NASL is that all their best markets aspire to MLS and MLS is more than happy to take the best and leave the worst. NASL can hold on only as long as they can get new teams to join.

The perception as a pathway to MLS may start to suffer because USL teams are now "promoting" to MLS or announcing their intentions to do so. If you can still have a pathway to MLS then who needs the larger expenses of NASL? Travel and franchise fees are both much higher than USL. So until you can establish a fan base, or see if that is even feasible in your market, why not go the low cost route? Save the money for the MLS expansion fee.

 

Which NASL markets are you supposing aspire to MLS? Most support the NASL's goal of D1 in the future and don't have aspirations as you suggest.

 

Somes perception as Usl as a better pathway to MLS are also false, MLS just wants the money and there's no advantage to being in MLS's minor league Usl. Only one club has moved to MLS from their minor league, Orlando while NASL has had not much more but Montreal and now Minnesota are the 2 NASL clubs to move to MLS.

 

Most Usl clubs use the "were aiming for MLS" sales pitch but most also know they never will and its only sales talk.Expansion fees are actually similar now as Usl has continually raised there's to a point where there about the same now at $5 million.

 

Clubs and expansion groups that buy into the NASL's bigger aspirations of eventual D1 and a professional independant league as opposed to a farm team affiliate league that the Usl mostly is are the one's that will accept the larger budgets needed for an NASL club, for example the Miami FC's owner. These owners have no interest in joining MLS's minor league Usl, a league thats hit its ceiling as a development league for MLS regardless of if it ever got D2 or not. Miami FC's owner basically said what you did but with another angle as his aspirations are different, save the money for the MLS expansion fee and join NASL, use the money to build your club in a league that awants to eventually be D1.

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On 24/09/2016 at 4:49 AM, CDNFootballer said:

You seem to be a bit behind in the news.

 

Fury rumored now to be either staying in NASL for 2017 or taking a haitus until CPL, Strikers are receiving a loan for funding while they find new investors or owners (two billionares interested). Rayo OKC after cutbacks in August has now restarted TV ads and marketing for its matches after its new management team has worked thru the transition and got up to speed and from people on the ground in OKC the club will return in NASL in 2017. NASL Attendance is down but still close to 5K per game, not bad and quite a bit better than the Div 3 Usl.

 

MLS also has had issues in its early years with contraction and preparing papers to fold in 2001 and worked thru them, NASL will work thru theirs as well.

The Stronach story and the Edwards story were apparently BS, they were negotiating way back but the Strikers way overvalued their team and didn't want to sell their trademark, so those sides backed off. The current interested group is FC Miami City (a PDL team) in partnership with a local soccer academy (branded as PSG but it's just licensing, no affiliation with PSG). A little bit of money behind them but certainly not Stronach/Edwards territory. So I wouldn't say the Strikers are out of the woods at all

I'm still pretty skeptical on Rayo surviving as well. 

Ottawa will leave soon, whether it is 2017 or a year later, as Edmonton may as well. Minnesota is gone soon too

Saying the sky is falling might be a tad dramatic, but when it would not be surprising if 5 out of 12 teams currently in NASL folded or left, then it is not unreasonable to say the league could fold. That's not just contracting a couple teams. All it would take is one last stable team jumping to USL (say Indy Eleven) and I think everyone else would lose their nerve and bolt. 

NASL could survive, but Peterson will have to pull a rabbit (and a salary cap) out of his hat at the big meeting

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22 minutes ago, CDNFootballer said:

 Only one club has moved to MLS from their minor league, Orlando while NASL has had not much more but Montreal and now Minnesota are the 2 NASL clubs to move to MLS.

And Portland, Seattle, Vancouver. All 3 were great attendance markets. That has continued into MLS. That is what MLS wants and will continue to target.

 

22 minutes ago, CDNFootballer said:

Clubs and expansion groups that buy into the NASL's bigger aspirations of eventual D1

NASL will never be D1. USSF will give D2 status to USL before they every consider giving D1 to NASL. Then MLS will have the full pyramid just like USL used to have. The USSF is in bed with MLS and won't allow NASL to ever be anything but a feeder league.

22 minutes ago, CDNFootballer said:

for example the Miami FC's owner.

Miami will be the team that David Beckham gets as part of his deal to come to MLS and it will bury any local competition. Nobody in Miami would tolerate being second fiddle to Orlando. Miami currently pulls in 5k average (10k 3 times this year which is a record for the league). That is dwarfed by Orlando's 34k average and 60k top. Once Miami MLS happens NASL Miami will cease. Just my SWAG of course.

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4 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

But I suspect that won't stop people repeating the Maccabi Tel Aviv owner rumour as an accepted fact in a Toronto context elsewhere on the forum. 

No one is repeating it as fact. At least not that specific guy, Goldhar just fits the rumour well. Not sure why you would think Rollins would say there is a billionaire interested if there wasn't.

The Stronach/Edwards stories were true, just out of date. If Rollins' story ends up out of date, fine, but the only "evidence"  currently against it is the notion that Rollins is completely full of shit, and seeing as he's turned out right about a few things, that doesn't seem like a great position 

But hey, I'm talking to a guy who held up NASL as a beacon of stability a few months ago, I'm pretty sure you would rather die on that hill than consider the alternative

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Now you are making stuff up. I gave them a better than 50% chance of still being around 5 years from now, which was hardly a ringing endorsement. What I hadn't anticipated was Minnesota leaving for MLS before Chicago (and others) arrived, because it had appeared that they would wait for approval on their SSS in a similar way to Miami. That seems to have been the first domino in a chain reaction. 

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I'm not bothering sifting through 115 pages of a thread to dredge up examples of your unrelenting advocacy of NASL as the league of choice for Canadian expansion and condescension towards anyone who suggested otherwise. A month or two back that suddenly switched to USL. Solid hindsight 

But this is an NASL thread, we ought to keep it for NASL debate, not CPL 

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21 hours ago, Complete Homer said:

The Stronach story and the Edwards story were apparently BS, they were negotiating way back but the Strikers way overvalued their team and didn't want to sell their trademark, so those sides backed off. The current interested group is FC Miami City (a PDL team) in partnership with a local soccer academy (branded as PSG but it's just licensing, no affiliation with PSG). A little bit of money behind them but certainly not Stronach/Edwards territory. So I wouldn't say the Strikers are out of the woods at all

I'm still pretty skeptical on Rayo surviving as well. 

Ottawa will leave soon, whether it is 2017 or a year later, as Edmonton may as well. Minnesota is gone soon too

Saying the sky is falling might be a tad dramatic, but when it would not be surprising if 5 out of 12 teams currently in NASL folded or left, then it is not unreasonable to say the league could fold. That's not just contracting a couple teams. All it would take is one last stable team jumping to USL (say Indy Eleven) and I think everyone else would lose their nerve and bolt. 

NASL could survive, but Peterson will have to pull a rabbit (and a salary cap) out of his hat at the big meeting

Rayo OKC has posted its $750K bond for 2017 and will be back. Indy Eleven are part of the core NASL clubs committed to its model and attaining D1 status alongside MLS in the future.

 

NASL may lose a club or 2 like MLS did (and Usl's lost many more) but will survive and having a stronger commited core to move forward with.

 

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21 hours ago, TRM said:

And Portland, Seattle, Vancouver. All 3 were great attendance markets. That has continued into MLS. That is what MLS wants and will continue to target.

 

NASL will never be D1. USSF will give D2 status to USL before they every consider giving D1 to NASL. Then MLS will have the full pyramid just like USL used to have. The USSF is in bed with MLS and won't allow NASL to ever be anything but a feeder league.

Miami will be the team that David Beckham gets as part of his deal to come to MLS and it will bury any local competition. Nobody in Miami would tolerate being second fiddle to Orlando. Miami currently pulls in 5k average (10k 3 times this year which is a record for the league). That is dwarfed by Orlando's 34k average and 60k top. Once Miami MLS happens NASL Miami will cease. Just my SWAG of course.

No, USL Pro which was renamed Usl started in 2011 as a league so Portland and Seattle never played/moved up from that league. Vancouver left Usl and moved to the NASL camp and played in the NASL Division in 2010 before moving to MLS.

 

Beckham's Miami MLS is still not confirmed and there's no word when if ever they will be. Garber is souring on Miami apparently.

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1 hour ago, CDNFootballer said:

No, USL Pro which was renamed Usl started in 2011 as a league so Portland and Seattle never played/moved up from that league. Vancouver left Usl and moved to the NASL camp and played in the NASL Division in 2010 before moving to MLS.

Beckham's Miami MLS is still not confirmed and there's no word when if ever they will be. Garber is souring on Miami apparently.

Technically correct but they formed NASL (resurrected?) to get out from the gong show that USL was becoming at that time. Even back then the smart money was on MLS winning the league wars. Either way MLS took all the well attended teams from the lower divisions once they had proven themselves capable of getting fans out.

Beck's Miami will happen but he's not dumb enough to put up all the money himself. Stadium deals are a bitch. Just ask Vancouver. Here again it is a moot point because the Miami D2 franchise draws 1/6th (max & ave) that nearby Orlando does.

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40 minutes ago, Yohan said:

http://www.starsandstripesfc.com/2016/9/27/13046344/the-nasl-might-be-disintegrating

IMO, perception is a key factor. MLS may be a Ponzi scheme in the end, but it looks way more stable than NASL. NASL looks to be falling apart.

This article is basically just picking all the negative news off of reddit. The author went to ONE NASL game. Hardly a good representation of what the league is about, and is reporting from afar.

To your point, MLS was falling apart years ago as well. Couldn't tell you where I read it (might have linked from this forum actually) but there was a few months where they were literally days from shutting the doors.

NASL isn't roses and sunshine, but I don't think they're collapsing right this second. I think you'll see them for 2017. After that... who knows.

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1 hour ago, jedinathan said:

To your point, MLS was falling apart years ago as well. Couldn't tell you where I read it (might have linked from this forum actually) but there was a few months where they were literally days from shutting the doors.

NASL isn't roses and sunshine, but I don't think they're collapsing right this second. I think you'll see them for 2017. After that... who knows.

IIRC it was when Miami and Tampa Bay franchises went out of business 2002? and MLS was heavily into debt. Anchutz, Hunt and couple of other investors sunk more money into MLS to keep it afloat.

The difference between MLS situation then and NASL situation now is that MLS was the Div 1 with no other leagues to challenge them while NASL is Div 2 and MLS is sucking most of the money going into NA soccer.

MLS made the same mistakes NASL did pretty much grabbing anyone willing to put money into a franchise (IE Chivas USA). The old NASL did the same thing not vetting their investors well enough and the result was that the league folded.

Current NASL is doing the same thing. Not vetting their investors thoroughly so that when they do take a loss, they don't fold immediately. This is the main cause of instability in NASL. MLS pretty much requires a group of investors with a net worth of a billion bucks or something before they even consider granting a franchise now. This gives them stability it did not have before.

Can NASL getting their version of Phil Anchutzs willing to take a big loss in order to grow a soccer league? I highly doubt it when the perception is that MLS is where the perceived big money will be. NASL just can't generate the level of interest MLS in the soccer landscape in NA.

It just feels to me that NASL is a house of cards that's trying to battle too many problems at once, with no money to back it up.

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There are still advantages that the NASL offers that the MLS doesn't. You're bang on correct in the assessment of the MLS close to closing compared to NASL.

IMO USSF needs to do something to make the pyramid more stable. USL hasn't exactly been the shinning example of stability either, and really only became positive since becoming the minor league for MLS. I don't subscribe that the NASL needs to be D1 to be successful though. IMO the pyramid needs avoid having reserve teams in the second division. I'm not against a merger between NASL and USL, but I would want it to be through the independent clubs in the USL and the current NASL clubs. Keep the reserves at a D3 level.

The current biggest instability factor for the NASL is clubs like NY and Miami paying absolutely unreal amounts of money for players. They're pushing clubs like Indy, FCEd and Ottawa out of the market/league, ironically enough.

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5 hours ago, jedinathan said:

There are still advantages that the NASL offers that the MLS doesn't. You're bang on correct in the assessment of the MLS close to closing compared to NASL.

IMO USSF needs to do something to make the pyramid more stable. USL hasn't exactly been the shinning example of stability either, and really only became positive since becoming the minor league for MLS. I don't subscribe that the NASL needs to be D1 to be successful though. IMO the pyramid needs avoid having reserve teams in the second division. I'm not against a merger between NASL and USL, but I would want it to be through the independent clubs in the USL and the current NASL clubs. Keep the reserves at a D3 level.

The current biggest instability factor for the NASL is clubs like NY and Miami paying absolutely unreal amounts of money for players. They're pushing clubs like Indy, FCEd and Ottawa out of the market/league, ironically enough.

I don't see NYC or the Miami FC pushing clubs out of the league as they're not matching them in spending and keeping responsible budgets. Look how competitive FCE this year is and Ottawa last year was with lower player budgets.

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6 hours ago, Yohan said:

Current NASL is doing the same thing. Not vetting their investors thoroughly so that when they do take a loss, they don't fold immediately. This is the main cause of instability in NASL. MLS pretty much requires a group of investors with a net worth of a billion bucks or something before they even consider granting a franchise now. This gives them stability it did not have before.

Can NASL getting their version of Phil Anchutzs willing to take a big loss in order to grow a soccer league? I highly doubt it when the perception is that MLS is where the perceived big money will be. NASL just can't generate the level of interest MLS in the soccer landscape in NA.

It just feels to me that NASL is a house of cards that's trying to battle too many problems at once, with no money to back it up.

To be fair NASL has only lost 3 clubs in 6 years, 2 last year with circumstances out of their control in SA with them folding so the owner could cash out his stadium and put the funds in his charity.

 

The Strikers ownership was moneyed but the economy failing in Brazil has hit them hard and that's not something the NASL could've necessarily foreseen.

 

On Rayo OKC the NASL took a risk on but if they had not been relegated (and it was up until the last game of their season that they were) they wouldn't have lost their 7 million plus of TV revenue and wouldn't have been affected. NASL clubs post $750k bonds to help so they don't fold during the season as well.

 

Other recent clubs, the Miami FC, PRFC, Jax, Indy, all seem to have been vetted well.

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On ‎9‎/‎28‎/‎2016 at 6:13 PM, CDNFootballer said:

I don't see NYC or the Miami FC pushing clubs out of the league as they're not matching them in spending and keeping responsible budgets. Look how competitive FCE this year is and Ottawa last year was with lower player budgets.

FCEd and Indy are the two examples for sure. However, Miami and how much they changed over the break into the fall and how the salaries have increased since NY joined is making it harder and harder for other clubs to keep pace both on and off the pitch. That's no secret. So if some of the smaller clubs and owners who aren't as rich or able to spend as much on a whim will start to re-examine if they can stay in the league. Not hard to see. I know for a fact that the spending of some of the richer clubs was a MAJOR talking point for the most recent NASL owners meeting. Its a significant issue for some owners in the league.

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