The next cycle: A look at the CanMNT moving forward

[Obinna]

We are officially eliminated from WC 2018. There will be no World Cup for stalwarts Julian De Guzman and Atiba Hutchinson. Some of us are still licking our wounds, while others are pondering what the future holds for the CanMNT. Here is a look at what the player pool will look like at the start of the next cycle:

Junior Hoilett: The highly acclaimed long term CanMNT holdout signed up just ahead of the semi-final round, only giving him a friendly encounter against Ghana to acclimatize to the international game. In the 6 qualifiers and 2 friendlies since, he hasn't scored but he has arrived as advertised in the EPL and Championship. Quick, athletic, direct and talented, Junior gives us an attacking dimension that was sorely lacking in a squad that was feeble moving forward. At the very least, he has given defences something to worry about. 

Still just 26 years old, Hoilett will be 29 when we start the Third Round of CONCACAF WC Qualifying starts in September 2019. He will have played through at least one Gold Cup (but more likely - two). That experience would likely see us able to draw on an experienced, dangerous player from the beginning of our campaign, not the middle. Three extra years maturity as a footballer and still very much in his prime, we might just see the best of Junior Hoilett when the next qualifying cycle rolls around. 

 

Scott Arfield: Unlike Junior, who is just entering the prime of his career, Arfield is very much right in the thick of it. On the verge of turning 28, Scott is currently enjoying English Premiership football for a second time with Burnley, and is playing the best football of his club career. Arguably the most pleasant of surprise additions for CanMNT fans, Scott has been a solid addition and gives Canada a quality, versatile, starting player.

Like Hoilett, Arfield has cemented himself as an important and impactful player. We haven't had much time with him as he just only 5 caps to his name. However, with Gold Cup action on tap for next season, we'll get to see how he develops with players like Junior, Will Johnson, Tesho Akindele and Cyle Larin. When WCQ kicks off in 2019, Scott will be 30 years old and very much a key, veteran player for us.

 

Jonathan Osorio: Yes, Jonathan Osorio. The forgotten man under Benito Floro will be back in the fold under new management. At 24 years old, Jono has developed a reputation around MLS for being a talented midfielder and a key member for TFC. He's now entering an interesting phase of his career, where it's no longer about potential - it's about impact. As that expectation in Major League Soccer mounts, there will also be a chance for him to prove himself with the CMNT.

If Osorio can prove himself to the new manager (assuming there is one), he could find himself in a similar situation to Toronto, where he is surrounded with other talented players. Will Johnson would be a familiar face, but swap Bradley for Arfield, Giovino for Junior and Altidore for Larin, and there's no reason not to think he wouldn't be useful Canada as he is for Toronto. By the time the games begin to matter it'll no longer be about potential, as Jono will be in his prime at 27 years old.

 

Will Johnson: Back to Will Johnson for a second. He's 29 now and up until his unexpected dropping, you'd pencil him in as a stater anytime you think of the best Canada can field. A former MLS All Star and Cup winner, he's certainly experienced and at a good age, but when Canada starts the WC qualifying process again, he'll be 32. 

Considering his age and his past decisions to forego international duty, this is a player who won't be in the fray on a regular basis. Sure, he'll answer the call more often than not, but I don't think we'll be depending on him as we've done in the past. Even when selected, he won't likely be an unquestionable starter, but more realistically be that veteran leader who'll step in and put in a professional shift - sometimes from the start and sometimes from the bench. 

 

Tesho Akindele: The trend with Tesho is clear - most likely he's your typical 6-10 goal guy a season in MLS. That's not a bad thing, he's a good depth player and occasional starter with a top MLS club like Dallas, which certainly qualifies him to play the same role with Canada. The "2019" version of Tesho will likely look similar to the current model: physical and fast, with decent feet and an occasional eye for goal. This time though, he'll have the experience of a full WCQ campaign under his belt.

 

Cyle Larin: It's far from certain what the future holds for this young man. Will settle into an Alvaro Saborio-type MLS career, hitting a goal every two games? Will Orlando sell him to a famed European club like Benfica, Sporting or Werder Bremen -all clubs that have been attached to his name in one form or another? 

Either way, Larin will be three years older, stronger and wiser in September of 2019. That is good news to us and bad news to the rest of CONCACAF. Despite his relatively poor scoring record of 5 goals in 19 games with Canada, most of us will still be dreaming of what sort of goal monster Cyle Larin will be at 24 years old. 

 

Edgar, Vitoria and De Jong: All four of these players will hit 2019 at an awkward age relative to their value. Edgar, Vitoria and De Jong will be 32, 32 and 33 respectively in 2019 - that's either an old experienced core, or a group of defenders too old to hang our qualification hat on. Edgar has the best chance of remaining in the fray, given his leadership, experience, versatility and goals. Just kidding about the goals.  

While Edgar could likely possibly be our starting CB (and hopefully a Vancouver Whitecaps veteran), I have lesser faith in De Jong holding his spot down. I still think he'll be selected in the 18 here and there, but Adekugbe could possibly be "the man" when we enter qualification mode once again. Hopefully, Morgan can re-find himself and be useful too, but either way LB will shape up as a position to watch (nervously).

Vitoria may be done. I'm sure he'll answer the call if it comes, but unless he really makes the most of his opportunity in Poland, don't expect him be a major factor. If we can get a view useful minutes from him here and there, it'd be useful, but don't harbour much hope of him being a consistent starter in 2019.

 

Henry and Aird: The two youngish right backs that aren't really right backs. The calls for Doneil to move back into the centre will become louder if his loan in Denmark is successful. It's growing increasingly unlikely he'll ever be a West Ham player, and the loan outside of England could be a signal he's being shopped around. He'll find his feet at an appropriate club level soon and he'll continue to add to his 21 caps in the meantime. He'll be 26 years old and if common sense prevails, he'll be a starting CB centre back and playing at a good level. My personal hope is for him to get into Denmark and find his way to becoming a starter for an FC Copenhagen or equivalent.

Fraser Aird is interesting. Will he continue on in Vancouver or will he go back to Rangers and get in the team? Will he continue on as winger/fullback like De Jong? For me best case scenario is that he goes back to Rangers, gets in the team and gets European football, all by the time 2019 rolls around. That's a big ask, but it's possible. At 21 he's had a good MLS campaign with a lot of minutes. Is another chance with Rangers out of the question? I don't think so, but it's up to him what becomes of it. If he's not the first RB playing European football next cycle since Staltari, i'll gladly take a quick, 24 year old MLS starting right back who is can attack and whip in a cross.

 

Bekker and Teibert: Not much to say about these two, except that they'll provide us better depth than we've had in the old USL dark-ages, where our squad was populated with players like Adam Braz. I don't think either will ever be a regular starter for us, but i'm happy at the depth they'll provide, and i'd much rather either of them in midfield than an Adam Straith or a Samuel Piette. They'll be around as well, of course, but I hope the next manager selects only one at a time at most.

 

Anyways, that is my personal break down and look into the future. There is much to be hopeful for and look forward to. We have a Gold Cup coming up, which will hopefully be an opportunity for a new coach to come in and send a good team into that tournament. Feel free to reply with your own analysis or thoughts on how you see things for us. It beats pouting over not getting to the HEX!

[Obinna]

For fun: Squad for GC 2017

----------------Larin----------------

Hoilett---Arfield---Johnson---Akindele

----(c) Hutchinson (final tournament)---

De Jong---Henry----Edgar---Aird

----------------Borjan------------------

 

Subs:

Jackson

Ricketts

Vitoria

Osorio

Bekker

Davies or Tabla (cap whichever makes an MLS impact first - if neither someone like Petrasso)

Adekugbe

Crepeau

Roberts

[El Hombre]

Borjan

Chung - Henry - James - Adekugbe

Piette - Teibert

Petrasso - Arfield - Hoilett

Larin

 

[jpg75]

2017 GC?

------------Cavallini---------Larin----------

Hoilett-----Arfield-Johnson-Petrasso

de Jong-James/Henry-Edgar-Ledger

-------------------------Borjan----------------------

[Alex1775]

                                       Larin

               Hoilett - Cristante - Johnson/ Arfield - Arfield/Petrasso 

                                   Hutchinson

             Gutierrez - Ferreira - Edgar/Henry/Vitoria - Aird

                                        Borjan 

 

[shermanator]

I think Piette has to be in consideration for the starting DM role in the next cycle if his club situation improves. Flat out, he is my choice as a DM, his sole purpose on the pitch to me is as a destroyer. But he can't be played elsewhere on the pitch. The big question right now is how will his club situation progress over the next 3 years, as the decisions he has made since leaving Dusseldorf have been questionable. If he's in a better spot club wise, he will be in the starting 11 at DM. If not, perhaps we see Bekker or Teibert.

No mention of Simon Thomas. As it stands, he's #2 on the depth chart behind Borjan for me, presuming that Stamatopoulos is done.

For players who haven't really featured, I think Chapman and Hamilton are the closest of breaking through to the senior team. I also like Tissot as depth on the wing. Shome, Zanatta, Tabla and Davies seem to be the best players in our U20 pool as of this moment, but I don't think I can accurately predict where they will be in 3 years. I imagine we will see all of them called into camps between now and 2019.

Last point, I never want to see Vitoria again, he should be nowhere near this team. Thankfully he did not feature in WCQ.

[Obinna]

I like your thoughts on Piette. I agree that it really depends on where his club career goes over the next couple of seasons. He can improve if he plays alongside better players week-in and week-out, but I don't know if he'll improve much at the level he's playing at now. He might need to make one more move up the ladder to get in an environment that'll help him truly progress. This year is a big year for him - hopefully he can impress and get bought up by a bigger fish.

[One American]

To me, Ferreira is the number one target. Or Tomori. Or both. Because the drop after them is likely to be tremendous. 

[shermanator]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

I like your thoughts on Piette. I agree that it really depends on where his club career goes over the next couple of seasons. He can improve if he plays alongside better players week-in and week-out, but I don't know if he'll improve much at the level he's playing at now. He might need to make one more move up the ladder to get in an environment that'll help him truly progress. This year is a big year for him - hopefully he can impress and get bought up by a bigger fish.

At least with Piette, we are seeing progress (albeit, slow progress) up the divisions in Spain. 2014-15 he was strictly starting with Coruna B. 2015-16 he was a sub at Ferrol, then starting with Coruna B. 2016-17 he appears to be a regular starter with Izarra (albeit I'm looking at a small sample size). This to me is key for our young players, rather than seeing them make a move like Doneil Henry to a league that they have no shot at making.

If he moves up to the Segunda Liga, I think it's a no brainer to put him in the starting 11.

[Obinna]

6 minutes ago, shermanator said:

At least with Piette, we are seeing progress (albeit, slow progress) up the divisions in Spain. 2014-15 he was strictly starting with Coruna B. 2015-16 he was a sub at Ferrol, then starting with Coruna B. 2016-17 he appears to be a regular starter with Izarra (albeit I'm looking at a small sample size). This to me is key for our young players, rather than seeing them make a move like Doneil Henry to a league that they have no shot at making.

If he moves up to the Segunda Liga, I think it's a no brainer to put him in the starting 11.

At risk of turning this into a Piette thread, I'll give my thoughts on that:

To keep it in perspective, let's keep in mind that Henry are only a year apart. Henry will have a good shot on loan in the Danish Superliga, while Piette is in the third tier of Spain. As much as I appreciate the small steps forward Piette is taking, I think it's fair to say Henry is in a better spot.

The other thing is, while you see Piette taking baby steps, I see a player who has failed at Dusseldorf and failed at Deportivo. At least with Henry he's getting loans to good levels.

[One American]

A plausible ideal 23 for the 2022 cycle: 

F: Larin, Hamilton, Tesho, Millar, Zanatta. 

M: Hoilett, Arfield, Osorio, Teibert, Davies, Tabla, Chapman, Cristante

D: Ferreira, Tomori, Adekugbe, Aird, Henry, James, Chung

GK: Borjan, Crepeau, Irving. 

 

1) I went with the dual nationals that seem like they are on the CMNT path at this point. Tomori is a toss-up. I don't know enough about Gutierrez, but a teenage starter on Colo Colo probably is going to get a long look on the Chile team. Cavallini, just don't see the effort to be part of the program. 

2) Midfield is obviously dense. Left Johnson off, think the original post nailed why, but he could easily be there. Elva, Froese, Bustos, Bekker. Don't know what to make of Petrasso. 

3) The backline is the real problem area and needs a big overhaul. Getting Ferreira onboard needs to be a priority. Tomori, obviously likely would be a big plus. If Adekugbe doesn't develop into a solid starter, then you may start thinking about playing Teibert there. Or another midfielder. I wouldn't rule out Ouimette or Tissot, either. I suspect those guys will be bouncing between MLS and lower levels for a while.  

4) Borjan as the incumbent is fine. Like what I've seen of Crepeau, but not sure what to make of his position at Montreal. For some reason, I think Irving seems like he's in a great position, playing lights out in the Houston system, with Houston having somebody named Joe Willis as their starter. He could rise very quickly. 

 

[Complete Homer]

1 hour ago, One American said:

To me, Ferreira is the number one target. Or Tomori. Or both. Because the drop after them is likely to be tremendous. 

Same. I think we underestimate how much our poor CBs hurt us this time around. Since the CBs struggled, Hutchinson had to play deep, which meant our CMs had to choose between failing to properly supporting the attack or losing contact with our DM. It meant that clearing to the wings, route one to Larin, or extending the press past what was safe were the only attacking options.

If we got Ferriera (I think Tomori is gone), and Henry manages to work out a Championship career, with Edgar/Gasparatto/James as depth, I think we can move past DM (which might be one of weakest positions next cycle, looking at what we currently have available). Without Feirreira, I think we have to continue to use a DM to support our weakish CBs and we repeat our issues.

[Vince193]

I hope someone like Zanatta makes enough noise to be considered for the senior team. 

[jpg75]

Looking at our squad for 2020-22 is a fools errand. There are so many external factors that will be at play that any starting XI or 23 man roster will likely have 50% errors or more. Anyone in his early 20's or younger who has not broken in at an MLS level or higher is suspect.

[Soccerpro]

I see a lot of our problems beginning at the back. We never have fullbacks that get up and get involved in the attacking play (De Jong against El Salvador being the only exception in recent memory). While other teams always have wing backs joining the attack and givingus problems.

I lose track of the number of times a player like Atiba will have the ball and our wing backs don't run out to the touch line and provide an option to receive the ball. They just stand there and watch. It's infuriating.

[jpg75]

5 minutes ago, Soccerpro said:

I see a lot of our problems beginning at the back. We never have fullbacks that get up and get involved in the attacking play (De Jong against El Salvador being the only exception in recent memory). While other teams always have wing backs joining the attack and givingus problems.

I lose track of the number of times a player like Atiba will have the ball and our wing backs don't run out to the touch line and provide an option to receive the ball. They just stand there and watch. It's infuriating.

This was only really a problem this cycle and maybe a bit in 2012 as Edgar and Jazic were less likely to go forward. In 2008 Stalteri and Klukowski excelled going forward, though they also left us exposed a lot. Before that we had a guy by the name of Jim Brennan.

[shermanator]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

At risk of turning this into a Piette thread, I'll give my thoughts on that:

To keep it in perspective, let's keep in mind that Henry are only a year apart. Henry will have a good shot on loan in the Danish Superliga, while Piette is in the third tier of Spain. As much as I appreciate the small steps forward Piette is taking, I think it's fair to say Henry is in a better spot.

The other thing is, while you see Piette taking baby steps, I see a player who has failed at Dusseldorf and failed at Deportivo. At least with Henry he's getting loans to good levels.

I would agree Henry is in a better spot now that he has been loaned out, although I see him as a player that has failed at West Ham. The point I'm trying to make here is that we need our national team players playing, getting actual minutes, as opposed to simply being signed to a club and training. 

[Cheeta]

You know, if you could tell me who we could reasonably use as a destroyer in front of the back 4 I'd be interested in seeing what Arfield (who I quite like) and Osario (who I'm optimistic for) could make of a partnership in the center middle. 

Which of course raises the further question of who do you use as a target striker because Lord knows that'll not likely to ever be Larin.  Although you never know I guess, and he may grow into the role if he could expect and receive some aggressive midfield support. (Assuming we can expect a pretty static 4-1-4-1).

Just thinking aloud.

[BCM]

41 minutes ago, shermanator said:

I would agree Henry is in a better spot now that he has been loaned out, although I see him as a player that has failed at West Ham. The point I'm trying to make here is that we need our national team players playing, getting actual minutes, as opposed to simply being signed to a club and training. 

True, but the fact he was even signed by West Ham says something... While he was on loan in the Championship where was Pierre? Injuries have been Henry's problem. He's got a load of raw talent. 

Our big worry is goalkeeper. We have a lot of young guys, but someone needs to step up. Third division US should not be enough to get a sniff at the national team. 

[baulderdash77]

Hey guys Imagine if we played a 4-2-3-1.  That formation is going to emphasize the strengths of Larin, Osorio , Teibert and Piette.  

Now you have:

                 Borjan  

Aird, Edgar, James, de Jong

          Teibert   Johnson

Arfield     Osorio      Hoilett

                 Larin

 

Subs:

Akindele, Hamilton,  Petrasso

Bench:

Crepeau, Piette, Henry, Adekube

That's a strong top 18 IMO for the next cycle  and the players are lined up to benefit their position.

 

[masster]

3 hours ago, jpg75 said:

Looking at our squad for 2020-22 is a fools errand. There are so many external factors that will be at play that any starting XI or 23 man roster will likely have 50% errors or more. Anyone in his early 20's or younger who has not broken in at an MLS level or higher is suspect.

Don't forget that the CPL will be up an running by then so we will have a whole new batch of players ;-)

[Complete Homer]

10 hours ago, masster said:

Don't forget that the CPL will be up an running by then so we will have a whole new batch of players ;-)

I know you're being sarcastic, by I for one look forward to the day when we are actually choosing between three or four natural right backs, instead of converted CBs and midfielders, because of our newfound depth, even if they aren't extremely high level. 

Probably not for 2022 though

[Complete Homer]

11 hours ago, baulderdash77 said:

Hey guys Imagine if we played a 4-2-3-1.  That formation is going to emphasize the strengths of Larin, Osorio , Teibert and Piette.  

Now you have:

                 Borjan  

Aird, Edgar, James, de Jong

          Teibert   Johnson

Arfield     Osorio      Hoilett

                 Larin

 

Subs:

Akindele, Hamilton,  Petrasso

Bench:

Crepeau, Piette, Henry, Adekube

That's a strong top 18 IMO for the next cycle  and the players are lined up to benefit their position.

 

I like the idea. It enables Aird and de Jong to bomb with less risk, shields our likely weak CBs, but still supports Larin better than he was this cycle if Hoilett and Arfield play narrow. Johnson would also hopefully look less exposed as a destroyer if he loses some pace by then

Still, I'm hoping a better DM than Teibert is in the mix, 2 DMs doesn't play to the strength of our pool post-Hutchinson and post-de Guzman

[baulderdash77]

I don't see a lot of DM's coming up do you?

The primary holding mids in our pool are likely to be Johnson, Teibert, Piette and Bekker.  In a 2 DM setup that's not terrible.  It's not as good as the Hutch and De Guzman pair we've had over the past decade but it's not bad.  

[BearcatSA]

I just want a starting XI and a squad whose players are regular starters at club level.