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Canada vs El Salvador Sept 6th in Vancouver WCQ


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32 minutes ago, canta15 said:

They weren't giving money to throw the game. In this rare occasion, they were given money to not throw the game.

Not exactly.  In the transcript Padilla clearly states the incentive is designed to prevent them pushing forward for an equalizer when trailing by a single goal.  At that point the team is not playing to win, they're just defending to limit the margin of defeat. 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup-2018/1733309/world-cup-2018-bribe-el-salvador-claim-they-refused-cash-to-fix-qualifying-match-against-Canada/

 

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29 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

You just know Floro will start Henry again when we desperately need a player like Ledgerwood who can bomb forward

Ledgerwood doesn't exactly bomb forward when playing at right back. If that's the goal, you might as well put a player like Ricketts back there.

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24 minutes ago, Califax said:

"Mexico holding a 8-0 lead in the 87th, Canada at 0-0 still trying to find a goal that will see them through. 

 

Floro will make a substitution, As Larin gives way to Jakovic who will try his hand at striking for the first time since grade 4." 

LOL, ok, I'll bite (even though I'm not as anti-Floro as some others):

"And it's a penalty in the 3rd minute of stoppage time .... Canada surely now sees themselves in the HEX.  And up steps ... Borjan to take it.  Well, this is highly unusual ... but Milan places the ball on the spot after receiving instructions from Benito."

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1 minute ago, Addona said:

LOL, ok, I'll bite (even though I'm not as anti-Floro as some others):

"And it's a penalty in the 3rd minute of stoppage time .... Canada surely now sees themselves in the HEX.  And up steps ... Borjan to take it.  Well, this is highly unusual ... but Milan places the ball on the spot after receiving instructions from Benito."

Haha well done sir. Aces to my kings. 

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17 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Hey, Vitoria scored 19 goals in 79 matches for that small club prior to Benfica. Pretty sure they were all penalties, but if he was a striker we'd be slamming Floro for not starting him beside Larin.

Some of those were also headers off set pieces. He's 6'5" so maybe not a bad idea to put him out there in place of James if his knee is still bothering him.

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3 minutes ago, jpg75 said:

Some of those were also headers off set pieces. He's 6'5" so maybe not a bad idea to put him out there in place of James if his knee is still bothering him.

Canada getting to the Hex with a late 5th goal on a Vitoria header would be a dream scenario for all Canadian fans...

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5 minutes ago, Weather said:

Realistic chances we make it?

I've got around 10%, assuming we give Mexico a ~1/3 shot of beating Honduras by 2 or 3 goals, and us a ~1 in 3 shot of beating ES by 3+ goals.  1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 = ~11%.

I think this is too high ... I think we have a chance of advancing, but more like 25% chance Mexico wins by 2+ and 20% chance we win by 3+, so 0.25*0.20 = 0.05, or a 5% chance of advancing.  Still, that's a fairly plausible outcome ... still room to have hope.

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Canada Soccer has forwarded the appropriate information to FIFA Integrity concerning the media reports of El Salvador receiving an offer in relation to the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia Qualifiers match against Canada to be played on 6 September in Vancouver, BC. FIFA Integrity, in collaboration with CONCACAF, has opened a preliminary investigation and the matter now rests with FIFA. All further media requests should be directed to FIFA.

Peter Montopoli, General Secretary, Canada Soccer

http://canadasoccer.com/statement-from-canada-soccer-p159877

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Canada 3+ goals = 2.5
El Salvador - 0 goals = 1.80
Mexico 3+ goals = 3.25
Honduras 0 goals = 1.8

=40%
=55.56%
=55.56%
=30.77%

When multiplying all the odds together, we have a 0.037 or approximately 4% chance of seeing all of these results going our way. Obviously the way I've put this together isn't perfect and there are other possibilities, but about 5% seems about right to me.

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18 minutes ago, scullion44 said:

As long as I can remember following this team which isn't incredibly long honestly, nothing has ever gone their way. I think we are due for some damn luck.

The thing is, in sport, you're never due for luck.  You can be unlucky or lucky, forever.  

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