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10 minutes ago, Macksam said:

A) Cost of a stadium is always an issue. That's always the case for a lot of pro teams but they still happen.

B) KW is an hour away from both cities, hour and a half if you count the travel towards BMO itself. People would prefer a sporting option closer to home.

C) MLS is not a big enough league to cause that.

D) See A

Your argument is pretty much "it will cost money, it's not going to happen" and the laughable "there's a team that plays an hour and half East, even though I've never seen a match there, I can't buy a ticket to my local team because that team an hour and half east exists..."

You're actually the least rational person I've encountered online in a while. Yes stadiums cost money and usually that money is invested in cities with a great deal of potential to host a team or that already have a team. K-W more than likely doesn't have enough potential to make a team profitable with such a massive investment as $100m+ before the team has even played a game.

EDIT: I'll say this if K-W also was able to secure a CFL, then I see a CPL coming with

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2 minutes ago, matty said:

You're actually the least rational person I've encountered online in a while. Yes stadiums cost money and usually that money is invested in cities with a great deal of potential to host a team or that already have a team. K-W more than likely doesn't have enough potential to make a team profitable with such a massive investment as $100m+ before the team has even played a game.

Yes, me saying a city, with a population that's closing in on half a million, can support a professional sports team is irrational. It boggles the mind how somebody can even fathom a thought like this. :rolleyes:

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2 minutes ago, Macksam said:

Yes, me saying a city, with a population that's closing in on half a million, can support a professional sports team is irrational. It boggles the mind how somebody can even fathom a thought like this. :rolleyes:

Because it's competing with a pair of nearby cities. The reason Moncton works for the league despite its smaller population is it's likeliness to to appeal to a number soccer fans in the region without the risk of battling for fans. It's also the media centre of the region and has a decent stadium

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lots of markets could potentially support teams of many different sports, it's a matter IMO of whether there are enough dedicated fans willing to put in the effort to make the market attractive to potential owners.  Are we willing to take up the torch?

Good things comes to those who wait, but everything comes to he who hustles while he waits.

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4 minutes ago, matty said:

Because it's competing with a pair of nearby cities. The reason Moncton works for the league despite its smaller population is it's likeliness to to appeal to a number soccer fans in the region without the risk of battling for fans

Again, cities that are an hour apart. You can't call me irrational with that one. However, if you can show me the data which shows a significant amount of TFC season and single game tickets being purchased by residents from KW, you might have a point.

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25 minutes ago, Macksam said:

Again, cities that are an hour apart. You can't call me irrational with that one. However, if you can show me the data which shows a significant amount of TFC season and single game tickets being purchased by residents from KW, you might have a point.

I can because being close to another city that has a team has been used various times to block a city from scoring a team (eg why Hamilton doesn't have an NHL team). Beyond that there is a risk of not making enough money to warrant building a stadium and paying an expansion fee is a factor.

Also since you asked there is a Red Patch Boys chapter in K-W (it makes up about 5-10% of total RPB memberships) and there are several bars in K-W that identify as TFC bars. I know it's not a list of who owns tickets but I don't have that list.

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1 hour ago, matty said:

I admit I missed the NBLC (because it's the NBLC and hardly anyone thinks about it in Canada) but the NBLC isn't exactly a runaway success and will not be spending anywhere near the money the CPL will be (cap is $150,000 not $1.5million and you don't need to BUILD A STADIUM FOR IT). Also Butch Carter's league wasn't able to get off the ground even with CHCH so why even count it?

Also HOW AM I WRONG AGAIN? You've defied logic with fantasy which isn't really proving any points at all.

Seriously. Can you stop pretending that you know better than those investors what's a good investment? Look at MLS who saw the value of their franchise skyrocket in the last decades compared to the initial investment.

I doubt BMO field like stadiums will be build. More likely stadiums like the one Vancouver had temporarily build or like Moncton initially.

Also, those extra franchises aren't from the get go. We're all talking about years down the road once the league starts and stabilize with its initial franchise. 

Try some optimism

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18 hours ago, matty said:

Does Canada have enough markets like Orlando and Sacramento? No, not even close. After the league expands to say 10 or even 12 teams the bulk of the population is covered.

We don't have enough mid-size markets for investors to really care about beyond a regional level and investors will be turned off at the idea of investing in a 100-200k sized market (hell Regina has less than 200k) that runs the risk of losing their national TV deal after a in a top flight.

Sacramento has 450,000 pop, there is roughly 15 cities in Canada with that pop or higher. This does not include regional areas like KW and it counts cities like Toronto who have millions as only 1 market. PLUS who says all clubs have to be in Canada? Expansion into the USA is absolutely a viable option. Especially since MLS is a closed system for Billionaires. 

Investors don't care about size, they care about making money, by selling what the market cares about and the market cares about Division 1. In a closed system Division 1 is only available to investors who can bleed and risk millions, in that context you are right, there is very little incentive. In an open system, any investor can start small, have a small budget, build an identity, endear faithful supporters and merit their way to compete with the millionaires. 

13 hours ago, baulderdash77 said:

The problem is math and money for your argument... you can't do it for less than 3 million per year. 

 So anything over say 12 or 14 teams in total is a pipe dream.  We'l never get to a full table so we won't need relegation:)  Asking a semi pro team to step up from a 300k  club budget to 3 million would literally kill them.

All excellent points. You are 99% correct on almost everything, except perspective. You wrote all the problems without realizing you also wrote the solution. 

Having an OPEN SYSTEM invites investors to build a Club, backed by the community it represents, with very little financial risk. By starting in the 2nd Division in the local regional league, it gives the club time to sort out Finances, Facilities, Academy & Development, Corporate Sponsorship, and Supporter culture. If done right (think Orlando, Cinn FC, SacFC) it could be magic. More importantly, everyone involved (corporations, government, fans and club) know they are all building towards Division 1 soccer. THAT'S THE INCENTIVE, promotion into Division 1. The club would only ever make the jump when they are financially viable to do so (a requirement for promotion).

The beautiful part about all this is Relegation need ONLY happen when we have TOO MANY qualified clubs in the Premier League.  Simply put, if after the season you are the last club in league standings but the Premier League is only 10 clubs then of course no relegation would occur. If in the 2nd division there is a club that has earned Promotion and are financially viable to play in the Premier League than they would be promoted and the CANPL would start the next season with 11 clubs.

Alternatively, if a Premier League club is poorly managed and is in financial trouble it can "reset" and it can be relegated to 2nd division where it has the time to re-brand and adjust the business plan. THIS IS FAR BETTER THAN DISSOLVING A FRANCHISE, which is the only option in a closed market ... well that or bleed millions. 

Think about what you are saying: 1) There is not enough large markets 2) Investors will not risk bleeding 3 million for mid size markets. This means if it is a CLOSED system with franchises, we are dooming the league to be exactly like the CFL, 6-8 clubs FOREVER,  1 club per city and no new investors because the COST is too high and the RISK is too much. This league will not engage the public EXACTLY like MLS has failed to engage the Media and public and worse yet for the CANPL, it will be seen as 2nd rate to MLS, which in itself is already seen as 2nd rate to every other major league in the world. This is exactly why you should support PRO/REL model, give us authentic football. 

Also, your point about European TV revenue is correct.  However, when looking for a National Sponsor or Broadcaster what sounds better? - 6 teams in large markets OR 6 teams in large markets PLUS 3 Regional Leagues with 4 teams each in Mid size Markets?  18 clubs sounds better than 6, doesn't it?
 
 Imagine 18 clubs with their own academies developing players for our National Team. I can dream. 

8 hours ago, matty said:

The CFL is a pretty good draw in Hamilton, more than 24,000 people have attended each game this year in Hamilton. If you think the CFL wouldn't work in KW because it's viewed as second rate to the NFL then how do you think the CPL would succeed since the "real top flight" is already operating in Southern Ontario?

That is why modeling the CanPL exactly like CFL/MLS, will doom it to be it's uglier step sister. 

8 hours ago, GuillermoDelQuarto said:

 My point is merely that each club needs to have a safety net.

As far as the ideology behind pro/rel, I think that's where the voyaguers cup comes in.  It needs to be more open so that random town from buttfuck sasketchewan has a chance to play a team like the whitecaps, if they play well enough.  Yes, non-soccer fans don't generally care about low-level soccer, but I know if my hometown, Whitehorse FC were about to play the Whitecaps, you bet your ass the whole town would show up.

Read my comments above about how PROMOTION/RELEGATION models provides a safety net with little risk for potential new investors in new markets. 

Ask yourself why anyone would spend valuable resources, (Time & Resources) for a random Saskatchewan ButtTown Team for just a game vs Whitecaps? Why would the ButtTownians want to watch their team get demolished in a 2 game series? Why would Whitecaps expose their players, who they invested real dollars in developing, against some Buttfucker? ABSOLUTELY NO INCENTIVE FOR ANY OF THIS TO HAPPEN. 

Now ask yourself, what if more than just a game, they could compete week in and week out in a league championship as equals Club v Club, Rural v Urban, Farmers v Hipsters, Mountains v Prairies, Ocean v Lakes,  Small Town Values v Big City Progressives, Locally developed Lads vs Bought Stars ..... man I'd watch that game. 

7 hours ago, Macksam said:

 CFL. It's a risky endeavour for any ownership group and municipality to take on considering it's for a league that has stagnated, and in all honesty, declined in popularity. 

This is true, so WHY would anyone support modeling the CANPL after the CFL?? Lunacy. 

7 hours ago, matty said:

 

I think you and a lot of people are getting over the top with KW. Firstly, why would anyone invest HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS in a stadium that seats 25,000 in KW just for a soccer team when you would be competing for fans against TWO LARGER MARKETS THAT HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED FOR YEARS?

MLS is the NFL for soccer in Canada. If the CPL is paying less money than it then naturually the MLS is going to be viewed as a better product than the CPL. Last time I checked the rumoured $1.5m(CND) cap is a lot less than $3.49m(USD and that's not including DPs.

There will likely never be a CPL team in KW

Clubs have supporters. Franchises have customers. Clubs have Values, Franchises have trends. Clubs develop players Franchises buy players. Clubs are for the people, Franchises are good for Owners. Clubs create loyalty, Franchises depends on bandwagoners. 

Why would an investor risk millions in KW? The answer is they have built a club. 

Clubs and Franchises are not the same thing. 

KW Football Club vs Toronto Football Franchise , I'll take KWFC anyday. 

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4 hours ago, matty said:

I can because being close to another city that has a team has been used various times to block a city from scoring a team (eg why Hamilton doesn't have an NHL team). Beyond that there is a risk of not making enough money to warrant building a stadium and paying an expansion fee is a factor.

I'm irrational for not acknowledging Hamilton fc's future intentions to block a possible Waterloo expansion team? 

Risk of not making money is always there when it comes to a new sports team. I guess anyone who's ever planned on establishing a sports team anywhere is irrational.

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Couple things I thought I would chirp in on this one.

First off, as far as the CFL in Ontario, anyone who feels that the CFL is going to magically disappear and that the CFL and Canadian Football doesn't have any support in Southern Ontario is delluded. First off, both Hamilton and Ottawa have sold out every single home game they've had since opening their new stadiums. That was three years ago. McMaster, Western, Guelph, Queens, and Ottawa are all competitive, long standing and successful CIS Football programs that should little sign of stopping and various Jr. Football leagues are still around and doing quite well, even despite the concussion monster under the bed. It's only in Toronto and the GTA where the sport is suffering in Ontario, and say nothing of the West or Quebec which are even bigger hotbeds for the sport. Will that always be the case? Who knows, it's certainly not slowing out in Manitoba, Saskatchewan or Alberta where there is no other competeing sport, which brings us to the second issue.

We're leaving talent on the vine in this country, few young kids across our nation are getting the proper skills development because of how are youth registration and coaching systems are designed, highschool kids aren't dreaming to make it big in pro soccer and if they do, it's not playing for Canada and kids who enter college aren't stupid and see how hard it is to make a career out of the sport with so few clubs, so few teams and so little support in this country. Do you know why the Roughriders are the 3rd largest merchandise sellers in our country next to the Leafs and the Habs? Perhaps because they are the ONLY game in town in Saskatchewan. That is never going to change, unless you have a presence there like a pro team people can get behind.

Which brings us to the third point. Make no mistake, if MLS was a truly joint venture between the US and Canada, I'd be on board for following them. If there was a meaningul Canadian domestic minute quota for all teams, I'd be on board. If MLS was trying to knock the door down as far as Canadian expansion of MLS and didn't charge absurd franchise fees, count me in. If MLS said tomorrow no more farm teams in USL, everyone is independant and we're going to promote and relegate spots. "I'd be all for it." However none of these things are going to occur in MLS, ever.

The USSF sanctioned MLS is NEVER going to fully treat Canadians as equal partners in development. It's practically their mission statement to not do that. MLS has outright said "No, we don't want to expand any further into Canada, we want Canada to buy into what they have" which means more clubs in MLS. Last, MLS is never going to allow promotion and relegation between USL and MLS. Instead they want the USL to be the AHL of MLS, there just for us to lock up talent and maybe see if we can squeeze a couple of jewels for our big franchises, but not spend a lot of money actually doing it. Canadian players deserve more, Canadian coaches deserve more and Canadian fans deserve more and we simply won't ever see that from MLS/USL. This is why so many would rather support the CPL, because it actually gives us a place to have our own clubs (and not as another team's farm club, or having to play their farm club), our own development program focusing on our country and not the US.

Last, to the subject of Waterloo/Kitchener/Cambridge, I don't doubt that a 5-10 thousand seat stadium could be built in the Tri-City area and that would suffice for a CPL team. I also don't doubt that it could be done in such a way to allow for future expansion. However, if the expectations that you are going to drop a CFL team or MLS team down there, it's not realistic. There's no owner to buy a team, chance a smaller market for a league that you need to spend at least 3 million a year on roster alone, will also likely have to tank the stadium purchase cost and have a go at it with much more established teams down the road. These leagues have mandatory salary caps and floors, and because of that you know you will have a huge expense hanging over your head and need to draw very high numbers. That's a big advantage the CPL can bring, is that they can have a lower cap, get some teams playing and stable and raise it later.

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9 hours ago, Macksam said:

I'm irrational for not acknowledging Hamilton fc's future intentions to block a possible Waterloo expansion team? 

Risk of not making money is always there when it comes to a new sports team. I guess anyone who's ever planned on establishing a sports team anywhere is irrational.

To the first, it's possible I suppose but territory rights are usually something that occurs after a TV contract and a nearby market begins suffering from attendance issues, or (in the case of the Leafs) has a lot of clout in your league and just wants to monopolize things. I'd like to think a future CPL would see KWC as an expansion site, less a satalite market, but there is no way to tell. One thing for certain though, the expectation (as Garber stated in the video that was posted earlier) is that KWC and most of Southern Ontario is to be part of TFCs orbit, new clubs be damned. I wouldn't say that it is an irrational concern, but a proven scenario with MLS and a theoretical with the CPL.

To the second

Honestly Mack, it's a matter of scale.

A CPL team that needs 5,000 fans, to break even and a similar sized stadium, rational and possible in Kitchner/Waterloo

A CFL or MLS team that needs to mainly finance a 20,000 seat stadium (as good luck getting the government on board with that) that will need to pretty much sell out constantly, will have to pay a high expansion fee (100 to 200 million US in MLS, likey a couple million for the CFL) and run a consistent 3-5 million dollar salary cap/floor (as enforced by the league) and stay competitive in a market of 500,000 at best with established teams down the road and most of your fanbase supporting them already? Much more irrational.

And that's all of course before we even talk about regional rights/markets.

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1 hour ago, Macksam said:

Hamilton fc's future intentions to block a possible Waterloo expansion team? 

Absolutely everything wrong with a Franchise model summed up pretty nicely here. In an open system Hamilton FC would have to compete with other clubs in Hamilton much less other clubs in other cities. Competition breeds excellence, guess what Monopolies breed?

The Franchise model is SOOO POOOOR, that the only way it survives is if each Franchise is  literally hundreds of kilometers away. That is a league not worth following and team not worth my time or money. 

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2 hours ago, -Hammer- said:

will have to pay a high expansion fee (100 to 200 million US in MLS, likey a couple million for the CFL)

So a major league level franchise fee for MLS and a bush league one for the CFL in other words. Talk of K/W getting a team is a case of getting way ahead of where things actually stand at the moment. If Futballer really is in the loop in CPL terms and isn't doing a Walter Mitty routine on us then there is a business plan that the CSA have seen but investors will only be sought to buy the franchise rights in the various cities after a public announcement of sanctioning by the CSA. Some of us, who have followed Canadian soccer for a few decades have seen this sort of thing unfold previously. Around fifteen years ago, the CUSL got its sanctioning announcement from the CSA but could not find sufficient investors in part because the existing USSF D2 teams decided to steer clear. There is already reason to believe that the NASL teams could do something similar in the present day.

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5 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

So a major league level franchise fee for MLS and a bush league one for the CFL in other words. Talk of K/W getting a team is a case of getting way ahead of where things actually stand at the moment. If Futballer really is in the loop in CPL terms and isn't doing a Walter Mitty routine on us then there is a business plan that the CSA have seen but investors will only be sought to buy the franchise rights in the various cities after a public announcement of sanctioning by the CSA. Some of us, who have followed Canadian soccer for a few decades have seen this sort of thing unfold previously. Around fifteen years ago, the CUSL got its sanctioning announcement from the CSA but could not find sufficient investors in part because the existing USSF D2 teams decided to steer clear. There is already reason to believe that the NASL teams could do something similar in the present day.

Nothing bush about it. MLS franchises are worth more money on paper then CFL franchises because when push comes to shove, if an MLS franchise were go bankrupt it's player contracts can be sold for far more, far easier then a CFL player contracts. If I had to give it an analogy, you have two millionaires, one is a farmer whose money is in his land. He's not making high profits as his land is very high maintenance but he's worth a million as he could sell that land and equipment at any time. This is opposed to a businessman with a small storefront, only has a month of inventory and some excellent marketing and stable customer base. He's got far better cash flow then the farmer and more money is coming in and doesn't need to be tied up in his building/land or equipment, but if he went bankrupt his inventory, customer base and marketing aren't worth as much. Besides, we are still talking millions here, I believe the rumor was Ottawa paid 7 Million.

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28 minutes ago, Macksam said:

Even with the above in mind, Most MLS franchises are extremely overvalued. 

I wasn't going to say it, because it's hard to point out why they are overvalued easily, and fundamentally there still have people buying franchises (albeit most larger US interests are opting to buy teams in Europe over MLS). However, stagnant television revenue, high-cost exempt player contracts and several PR incidents and failures come to mind.

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I think player salaries is where the major discrepancy lies. A league with a 5 million dollar cap shouldn't have franchise values in the $150 million range. A good chunk (25% I would say) of a sports team's value is from the total annual dollar value of the player salaries. I know Forbes listed these values, but if you actually crunched the numbers and used an indie accounting firm, these franchises would probably be in the 50 million dollar range to a max of 100 million for the higher spenders. I know "demand" for these franchises have driven up the values, along with the projected future value they should have due to soccer's growing popularity, but that just tells me there's a lot of room for other entities to enter this market and compete with MLS.

It shows me this league is operating well below capacity, and they know it. Rather than be the best league it can be, MLS chooses to put more effort on how it can best undercut the competition because the league knows how vulnerable it is to getting upstaged by a few well funded rival clubs. This is the reason why the league HO is still probably scared shitless of what a Cosmos NASL club playing in a 25000 seater stadium would mean to its business model. I for one hope the other entities do spring up because entrepreneurship is all about finding inefficiencies in the market place, and plugging said inefficiencies with a better product. MLS is an inefficient, overvalued product and its time for others to take advantage of those inefficiencies and produce something better.

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26 minutes ago, Macksam said:

I think player salaries is where the major discrepancy lies. A league with a 5 million dollar cap shouldn't have franchise values in the $150 million range. A good chunk (25% I would say) of a sports team's value is from the total annual dollar value of the player salaries. I know Forbes listed these values, but if you actually crunched the numbers and used an indie accounting firm, these franchises would probably be in the 50 million dollar range to a max of 100 million for the higher spenders. I know "demand" for these franchises have driven up the values, along with the projected future value they should have due to soccer's growing popularity, but that just tells me there's a lot of room for other entities to enter this market and compete with MLS.

I think what people keep missing, in both this discussion and the CanPL discussion, is that investment in these leagues is speculation. People drive up the price, not because of current earnings or even near future earnings, but because of the chance at a huge payoff later. 

If you're a large corporation capable of speculating on a number of projects, and a league that has (a small chance) of being the next NFL in a generation, it is worth that 10 million dollar expansion fee that TFC paid and years of losses. It may even be worth 150 million ten years later when the league looks much more stable. The merits of that speculation is obviously up for debate, but it isn't hard to understand why the valuations are so high

Now, in the case of CPL, where the payoff is being the next CFL and the perception of a limited supply of franchises (we will never hit 20-30 teams) is not present, that sort of speculation isn't quite as attractive, but it still plays a part

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17 minutes ago, Complete Homer said:

Now, in the case of CPL, where the payoff is being the next CFL and the perception of a limited supply of franchises (we will never hit 20-30 teams) is not present, that sort of speculation isn't quite as attractive, but it still plays a part

That is fair, but likely the expansion fee for a CPL team will be substantially smaller then even the CFL's 7 million figure, which may be a worthwhile investment, especially considering the worth of the franchise will likely rise quickly due to those contract costs.

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