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Just gonna guess stadium sizes needed for the 12 most likely markets

20000 (sharing with cfl)

Winnipeg

Hamilton

Calgary

Ottawa

Regina

Edmonton

10000+

Quebec city

5000+

Victoria

Mississauga/toronto

Moncton

Halifax

Saskatoon

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I don't think the CFL is going to expand. They seem to have the type of owners who would rather stick to splitting a $40 million pie 9 ways than splitting it 10 plus ways with the potential of said pie growing.

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39 minutes ago, ted said:

Interesting analysis. I don't think immigration has anything to do with the rise in popularity of soccer. IMO immigrant communities have been resistant to Canadian soccer and the current popularity is 3rd generation or greater Canadians embracing the worlds game.

 

I think it has something to do with it and that it can't be dismissed.  But I think a bigger factor is the (for lack of a better term) The Field Of Dreams effect.  (Please take with a grain of salt-eternal optimist)

The biggest factor for me becoming a fan was attending a game.  I was a casual fan.  Watched TFC from the beginning.  Would perk up when I saw Canada was playing but nothing major.

I randomly went and saw Canada/US in Detroit for the 2011 Gold Cup.  I had mentioned it to friends and there was some interest but nothing concrete.  Day of the match I said what the hell and decided to go by myself.  Found this board, found out where the pregame was and made my way over.  Found someone with an extra ticket, talked him down $5 and bought him a beer.  

From there I hung around and my mind got blown.  The Outlaws Marching by us.  Our hundred foot march across the street.  And one of the top sporting moments of my life.  We got beat but it was just amazing. I could go on forever on this but this already probably way too sports sappy and long.

Now I've gone to Toronto to see a World Cup qualifier, remember watching Benny's Fresh Mart on my phone, spend way too much time in here and can't wait until the next game is played.  That's what is so important about the TFC/Impact run this year.  People see the crowds, they see how crazy it looks and the passion of the fans and it peaks their interest.  That's why the CPL is so important.  That's why we need more home friendlies.

If you build it (go to a game) they will come (back).  

 

Edited by Rheo

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58 minutes ago, Macksam said:

I don't think the CFL is going to expand. They seem to have the type of owners who would rather stick to splitting a $40 million pie 9 ways than splitting it 10 plus ways with the potential of said pie growing.

The CFL would be willing to grant a franchise to the right owner, pretty much regardless of location to get to 10 IMO. Twelve is at least a decade down the line, if the TSN TV contract continues to grow, and can gain value from more clubs.

(I mean as long as it's moderately appropriate)

Edited by GimliJetsMan

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15 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said:

I agree with BBTB that asking Halifax to put up 6000-8000 fans 15 times a season is unrealistic.  Maybe 4000 ten or possibly twelve times a season.

I think the 6-8k and even the 5k estimates are on the higher end or expectations. I'm think they're planning for 3.5-4k on the low end

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1 hour ago, ted said:

That will be an awesome riot to watch on TV. ;)

Remember what the restraining order said about videoing people without permission for your personal collection.

My riot will consist of tears and sulking, akin to watching most International and Newcastle games. 

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Here's an interesting stat: Participation as a percentage of population, Nova Scotia (2.56%) is only behind Ontario (2.62%) and BC (2.71%).  When you consider that 417,800 live in the Halifax Regional Municipality and the population of Nova Scotia is 921,727 people, or roughly half, you can infer that most of the participation is occurring in Halifax.  To me that translates into a strong interest for soccer in the market regardless of ethnicity.

Speaking as someone who grew up there (I'm in my 30s) and everyone played soccer growing up, I believe it would succeed at 6,000 to 8,000 average attendance if marketed properly.  If you look up CHL attendance, Halifax is usually in the top 5.

http://www.hockeydb.com/nhl-attendance/att_graph.php?tmi=5976

My position, for there are not facts to fully prove anyone's theory, however, there are indications that Halifax likes soccer and has a history of supporting 2nd tier sport leagues.

Also, I think the stadium would be sized around the proposed attendance.  Securing Federal and Provincial funds will be very challenging and both levels of government have indicated little interest in a stadium project, hence why the article refers to private funds.  The wanderers ground is adjacent to downtown and could only accommodate a smaller stadium.  It would make for a incredible game-day experience.  Halifax has the most bars per capita and primarily downtown next to the proposed stadium site. 

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40 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said:

I agree with BBTB that asking Halifax to put up 6000-8000 fans 15 times a season is unrealistic.  Maybe 4000 ten or possibly twelve times a season.

I don't know about that.

There really isn't much to do in Halifax at night besides heading to Argyle street. You can sightsee the whole thing in under a day. There's also no competing professional sport during the summer. Add in a rather student/millenial crowd plus some interest in neighboring Dartmouth, I can see it hitting 6000 pretty easy.

Edited by PopePouri

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54 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said:

I agree with BBTB that asking Halifax to put up 6000-8000 fans 15 times a season is unrealistic.  Maybe 4000 ten or possibly twelve times a season.

I think starting now, in regards to Halifax, we should just stop speculating. There's no precedent here so everyone's in the dark really. CPL can have benchmarks but in the end no one can assume how those markets will respond due to lack of precedents. Demography and statistic can only help you make predictions so much. A market like Toronto is easier to predict than Halifax who NEVER had a major league team, and people aren't dumb either. They know that CHL and AHL aren't the NHL, same for soccer but still have good attendances

If you show up in Halifax with a Division 2 attitude, USL teams and a 5000 seat stadiums with no roof like some people are suggesting/borderline wants to happen, well they will treat it as 2nd rate and won't bother going or commit to it. But CPL showing up as a top league and they will surprise you

Moncton actually responded VERY well to the women's world cup with great attendances making it easier to make some kind of predictions:

2015 Women WC - Moncton Stadium : 13000 seats

  • Ivory Coast vs Norway: 7147
  • Costa Rica vs Brazil : 9543
  • France vs England: 11686
  • Columbia vs Mexico: 11686 (double-header I guess)
  • France vs Columbia :13138
  • England vs Mexico : 13138
  • Round of 16: Brazil vs Australia : 12054

As you can see, if it matters, they will come and that's on CPL's marketing team to make that happen. People are willing and able to go. They obviously like soccer but you got to make them care and feel it matters, otherwise, no one will go.

Edmonton responds very well to international tournament but sorry Edmonton FC, their stadium is crap and NASL is 2nd rate to MLS, a city that has a CFL (Canadian 1st football league), a CFL stadium and the best looking arena in the best hockey league in the world. Can we stop assuming that people are so stupid that they won't see NASL for what it is? Montreal Impact wasn't drawing either in NASL, no one freaking care about NASL but MLS and the marketing behind it made people pay attention. Same for Edmonton, you'll have a better response with proper facility and a Division 1 attitude like the CFL and the NHL.

2015 Women WC - Winnipeg : A city that has a team in the best hockey league in the world and a CFL franchise and facility. CPL needs to hit home that it's no different in terms of importance 

  • China vs New Zealand : 26191
  • Thailand vs Germany (same)
  • Ecuador vs Japan : 14522
  • Sweden vs Nigeria : 31148
  • USA vs Australia (same)
  • Australia vs Nigeria : 32716
  • USA vs Sweden (same)

2015 Women WC - Ottawa: See all the above. They have the Sens and now CFL and know of Montreal Impact and TFC, NASL was a crap league to care for. PERIOD.

That's why if CPL hopes to survives, half measures will sink that league right from the start. At least MLS understood as much. To survives in that endless sea of pro-sports in the USA, they had to come out as a Division 1 league, offer Division 1 infrastructures, Division 1 marketing and even giving away TV rights just to look like a Top league. They took years of loses but it worked in regards of attendance and now paying off.

You CANNOT as CPL brand yourself as 2nd rate. They have NO CHOICE but to stubbornly market and advertised the league as the TOP soccer league in Canada and act like MLS doesn't exist, just like MLS never talks about Liga MX. Even if the quality is rough around the edges on the pitch at first, even if there are only 6 teams and if there's no Giovinco or Drogba, you got to keep going hard at hit and endure until your league stabilized.

That's exactly why the only way CPL was ever going to work was with the same kind of deep pocket owners that started MLS in 1996. If that's what CPL does, and it seems they will do some of the stuff MLS has done, while hopefully not replicating the stupid gimmicks, Canadians will surprise all of us, just like Americans surprised themselves with MLS. The fact that Canadian viewership completely dominated in comparison to the American stats proves that there are reasons to be optimistic.

Edited by Ansem

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Again the potential heavy involvement from the CFL is such a huge asset for this league, for financial experience and marketing-wise, as this league should be to MLS basically what the CFL is to NFL football.

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2 minutes ago, GimliJetsMan said:

Again the potential heavy involvement from the CFL is such a huge asset for this league, for financial experience and marketing-wise, as this league should be to MLS basically what the CFL is to NFL football.

CFL rarely talks or acknowledge the NFL

MLS never talks about Liga MX or other leagues unless they spin this as a way to tell viewers that they are in the same leagues (even though experts know its bull)

CPL cannot acknowledge MLS unless there's no choice AND they can spin this like being on par (even if it's bull)

Funny fact: Those who used to watch pro-wrestling, WCW were comparing themselves none stop to the WWF and mentioned them over and over again, look where that got them...

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Just now, Ansem said:

CFL rarely talks or acknowledge the NFL

MLS never talks about Liga MX or other leagues unless they spin this as a way to tell viewers that they are in the same leagues (even though experts know its bull)

CPL cannot acknowledge MLS unless there's no choice AND they can spin this like being on par (even if it's bull)

Funny fact: Those who used to watch pro-wrestling, WCW were comparing themselves none stop to the WWF and mentioned them over and over again, look where that got them...

Yup. The CFL knows how to market itself as Canadiana, and that's what this league needs to do.

On the WCW:

Death of WCW is a must read, just for any sports fan IMO. So many great stories in there.

"That'll put butts in the seats"

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Is there any recent concrete evidence of CFL involvement outside of Hamilton? They obviously looked at it about two or three years back when the plan was to cooperate with the NASL, but since then the only attributed quotes have been in Hamilton and Ottawa and the latter have been lukewarm about it at best. I think the mentions of Regina, Calgary and Winnipeg in the Halifax newspaper story came from the journalist based on surfing threads like this and wasn't something that Paul Beirne mentioned based on how the conversation on that is described.

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3 minutes ago, GimliJetsMan said:

 

On the WCW:

Death of WCW is a must read, just for any sports fan IMO. So many great stories in there.

"That'll put butts in the seats"

I feel wcw's biggest mistake was not having a weekly hour long show that alternates between rick Steiner ranting and shooting roids and kevin nash just being the only 40 year old white guy with enough swagger to rock an all fubu outfit while not giving a **** about wcw

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34 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Montreal Impact wasn't drawing either in NASL, no one freaking care about NASL but MLS and the marketing behind it made people pay attention.

They were drawing over 10,000 announced during their last few seasons at D2 level.

http://www.kenn.com/the_blog/?page_id=3822

Edited by BringBackTheBlizzard

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3 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Is there any recent concrete evidence of CFL involvement outside of Hamilton? They obviously looked at it about two or three years back when the plan was to cooperate with the NASL, but since then the only attributed quotes have been in Hamilton and Ottawa and the latter have been lukewarm about it at best. I think the mentions of Regina, Calgary and Winnipeg in the Halifax newspaper story came from the journalist based on surfing threads like this and wasn't something that Paul Beirne mentioned based on how the conversation on that is described.

Look at where these teams will play. You can bet the CFL will be involved.

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Things the cpl should take from wcw to put butts in seats

1) celebrities not only taking part in matches but winning championships

2) a dp who always complains about money

3) all the best talent on one team and having their own refs

4) working characters like chucky and robocop into pro soccer

5) not valuing young talent

6) roids

7) rip off movies for everything

8) vince russo as commissioner

9) so much racism that you give the championship to booker t and ron simmons to get the heat off you

Edited by matty

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8 minutes ago, GimliJetsMan said:

Look at where these teams will play. You can bet the CFL will be involved.

Even when it could be viewed as helping a competitor establish itself and it's highly likely to be a drain on revenues for many years as has happened in Ottawa?

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5 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Sure but the CPL cannot be the ones initiating the comparison, just like MLS never initiate comparison to Liga MX  

I agree with what your saying in what the CPL ought to do. Yet, I was thinking about fans and media drawing the comparisons which would be unavoidable; especially with the MLS teams in the big markets, MLSE saying they want to be involved somehow, potential V-cup games against MLS squads. These are things that don't occur between the CFL & NFL or MLS and Liga-MX.

How do you walk the line of not initiating comparison in such a world? 

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