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Where will Canada Finish in Group A?


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quote from Sincliar after last World Cup...

 

"Canada, meanwhile, left the tournament amid disappointment after failing to pick up a single point in the first round, but the North Americans can at least look forward to hosting the next edition in 2015.

"It was a top-quality tournament in Germany," said star player Christine Sinclair. "We need to start living up to expectations over the next four years, but the World Cup will be a great opportunity to prove ourselves."

 

I think Vivianne Miedema will emerge as top goal scorer in the group playing for the Dutch, New Zealand will target Herdman's team hard to beat or tie them putting it all out to the coach who left them for greener pastures ( passion counts ). China will be a rebuilding team, but they will be athletic, organized and resilient they could go through.

 

Sincliar as a player is older, slower and her weakness is well known, she can be shut down by one strong central defender who plays her physically, so a dutch elbow could break her nose or make her skittish, a strong technical and fast defender can shut her out in the run of play.

 

The other major issue will be leadership, Sinclair was captain in Germany, when the team was in disaray she did not get them refocused in the dressing room or out, she went into her own shell, that tendancy by her is not changed, it is a weakness that Herdman has tried to address, with mulitple others being responsible for leadership as he noted in is Globe Op Ed this week. So if Sinclair is shut down on the field, she will also be weakened in her presumed leadership role, any schisms in the team between older members and young ones, which was evident in Germany will doom this squad. 

 

With Canada playing one ball to Sinclair and skipping over the mids given the absence of Matheson, where will the goals come from ? Set plays by Sinclair can be dangerous ... but organized teams as all three others in the group will be can defend strikes from the 18 yard to 25 yard out zone by Sinclair, if she is put into the mix in the box as the target she can be outjumped by competent defenders.

 

I suspect we will get through but only ... as the wild card, and based on home pitch advantage, that will not work in the knock out rounds.

 

 

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Sincliar as a player is older, slower and her weakness is well known, she can be shut down by one strong central defender who plays her physically, so a dutch elbow could break her nose or make her skittish, a strong technical and fast defender can shut her out in the run of play.

 

With Canada playing one ball to Sinclair and skipping over the mids given the absence of Matheson, where will the goals come from?

 

I suspect we will get through but only ... as the wild card, and based on home pitch advantage, that will not work in the knock out rounds.

Yes, we saw a lot of that vs the shrimpy Americans in London. 

 

Perhaps you missed the game from THF vs England.  There's some different stuff going on regarding how the team is trying to play.  Anyway Trillium I hope you maintain your usual batting average of being wrong on most things :)

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The great thing about the game is no one knows... no guaranteed results in this group.
 
It's a mid-pack group of middleweights.  So things like bounces, referee decisions, etc come into play.  As long as we're not fourth I'd rather we bombed into third in the group and went long in the tournament then if we go 3-0 and buy out at the 16.
 
The Dutch are very good all over the field and strong as a team and your Mother up front for them would score in droves.  Miedema is a hype machine.  We have many better players including young ones like Buchanan.  Sinclair is 10 times the player.  At the senior level if anyone ever man-marked Miedema she would be as invisible as the guy selling beer when you want one.  I'm more interested in the plan to handle Melis' pace.
 
Does it hit you too every now and then?  A Women's World Cup in Canada!  How absolutely outrageous.  If you step out of the forest and look back at this as if it never happened it would be something we always dreamed of like winning a lottery or walking on Mars.  Dream of a lifetime!
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This kind of reminds me of the chat before the last world cup.  No one even considered the French as a threat, and Nigeria was a possible but not too serious source of trouble.  None of the predictions came close to the actual outcome.  This time, I believe we have the best chance of winning the group, but I'm not taking anything for granted.  The CWNT better not be expecting to win any games without a hard fight.

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Have to say I'm expecting a 1st place finish.   Would be happy if we did settle for 2nd so long as the team was strengthening as they progressed but like everyone else I'm worried the ladies will get eaten up by their nerves.

 

With a 24 team tourney I'm not sure there's any advantage in where you land in the bracket, 1st or 2nd.

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There's a solid advantage to A1 because of how the brackets shook out. As it happens, if we were A1 we'd be unlikely to face a first tier team until the semi-final. Plus there'd be a big travel advantage: Canada would bounce between Edmonton and Vancouver while everyone else crossed hell's half-acre.

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Here's a reality based view of the team. The best analysis I have seen anywhere.

 

Erin McLeod is clearly the starting keeper but has to play to her strengths and not her emotions. Often too eager to be the brave keeper who comes for crosses, too often they are misjudged and result in goals that would have been easy saves if she stayed on her line and left her centre backs to deal with it. Still has the ability to keep her team in games they have no right to win (like the bronze medal game in 2012).

Rhian Wilkinson will likely keep her starting role at right back because they simply have to have some experience back there. She’s not going to get forward and link and may struggle with opponent speed but she’ll have composure and smarts that will hopefully be infectious.

Kadeisha Buchanan has unreasonable expectations being placed on her. She’s 19 and is going to make mistakes (as she has already). She’s starting, like Sesselmann, because we simply do not have players who can compete at this level in this position now that Candace Chapman is no longer playing. Herdman has made it clear he doesn’t rate Zurrer (didn’t pick her for Olympic qualifying and while on the squad for the actual Olympics didn’t step on the field due to a mix of injuries and form) and Moscato, while capable of reading situations well cannot deal physically with world class strikers. The expectations and superlatives being heaped on Buchanan now would be more realistic if we were heading into the 2019 World Cup and she had four more years experience under her belt.

Lauren Sesselmann is a converted left back made into a centre back. Not the ideal partner for Buchanan who will need a steady, experienced head next to her. If her knee holds out though, she is going to be critical.

Alyssha Chapman is a gamer and may be one of the players that surprises fans most. More than capable in 1v1 defending situations she will allow Sesselmann to stay more central rather than having to come out to the left to deal with mistakes and at the other end of the field she is already the best attacking fullback we’ve had in a long time.

Desiree Scott is very good but plays a critical position on this team and has to regain the dominant form that she showed in Olympic qualifying and the Olympics. Plain and simple. Especially with a new pairing at centre back (remember Sesselmann missed playing while Buchanan’s star was rising and she earned a starting role) Scott has to truly shield them and not require either of them to have to jump into midfield to deal with situations best left to her. She needs to allows them to keep their shape and reduce gaps that opponents will exploit. Her job is to break up attacks and quickly look to move the ball to Schmidt and Matheson.

Sophie Schmidt is the best player on the team and the only one with the ability to both provide penetrating balls to strikers that they can finish from and also get forward and score herself. If they are to go deep, she has to play almost every minute, create good chances for Sinclair and score a few herself. For the first time since she started playing, this team is more dependent on the form of a player other than Sinclair to do well.

A healthy Diana Matheson takes the load off Schmidt and doesn’t allow opponents to focus on her as they will. The supply lines from midfield to forwards need to be worked by Schmidt and at least one other and Matheson is really the only other one with the credentials. Game fitness will clearly be an issue though.

Jesse Fleming has the technical ability and vision that so many others lack. It would tempt me to play her in midfield if Matheson can’t play. Again…17 years old. If she can hold her nerve and put in performances that rival her best she will work well with an overlapping Chapman to both penetrate, get sight of goal herself and also provide service in the box to Sinclair and Tancredi.

Christine Sinclair is responsible for the single strongest memory I have of a female soccer player. When she scored her hat trick goal her celebration carried her towards the bench but the clenched jaw and thousand yard stare never wavered. It was the picture of resolve and the sense that she really would go through a brick wall to win that game. She was robbed, the team was robbed, we were all robbed by what happened after that but the nature of sport is that players age and their gifts diminish. Sinclair needs to have good service and it needs to find her in advanced, central positions. If we’re going to force her to pull into channels to get balls at her feet with two defenders between her and the goal, she is simply not going to score. This lack of service has been the biggest concern I’ve seen since the Olympics.

Melissa Tancredi pulled performances out of herself in the Olympics that laid the groundwork for Sinclair’s heroics in the semi-final. Her early round goals were critical and her physical play worried opponents to say the least. Can she do it at the World Cup? It’s a lot to ask and current form suggests it’s unlikely. What does have to happen though is if she gets a cross that is anywhere close to her head she has to bury it. That whiff in the first half against England last week from Ashley Lawrence’s wide ball in to her is a concern.

Others:

Josée Bélanger – Started at right back vs England in recent friendly. Yes, she put the ball in to Schmidt for the goal but was otherwise unconvincing.

Jonelle Filigno – Likely first off the bench. Has been in the set up for years. 11 goals in 43 starts.

Robyn Gayle – Experienced but odd that Herdman went with Belanger at right back ahead of her when both Wilkinson and Nault were injured

Selenia Iacchelli – Utility player; unlikely to see much time

Kaylyn Kyle – Darling of the fans but reality is that she is limited. Decision making on the ball questionable and I still can’t figure out why she was five yards offside when Matheson scored the winning goal against France in 2012.

Stephanie Labbé – Not much experience but likely to be second choice to McLeod if you look at playing time she’s had compared to LeBlanc the past 18 months

Ashley Lawrence – Another good option off the bench. Young but doesn’t look out of place

Karina LeBlanc – Been a big part of teams in the past but likely third on the gk depth chart here

Adriana Leon – A bit over her head at this level at this point in her career

Carmelina Moscato – Steady, experienced but is not going to frighten opposing forwards

Marie-Eve Nault – Been with the squad on and off since 2004. I still have memories of her dropping several yards behind her centre backs in the opening game of the 2011 World Cup game vs Germany, allowing Garefrekes to stay onside and score an easy first goal for the Germans.

Emily Zurrer – Discomfort on the ball playing out from the back perhaps best illustrated by the late goal conceded to Japan at BC Place last year highlight the concern. Likely behind Moscato in pecking order so unlikely to play.

 

https://mondaymorningcentreback.wordpress.com/2015/06/04/a-reality-based-preview-of-the-canadian-womens-world-cup-team/

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The list reminds me of the process to acquiring knowledge and skill.  When you begin something, say coaching, at the outset everyone is Jose Mourinho.  It's the delusion of knowing a bit but having no perspective to measure it against.  Then eventually you meet talented professionals who have done it day-in and day-out for a lifetime and you realize you know nothing.  In the learning process this is called the beginning.  I'd rather read a paragraph by someone who's hit that point than a novel by someone who hasn't.

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Great analysis.  The one part I miss is consideration of the mental aspects of the game.  I think that's an area that we are much stronger in compared to the last World Cup.  It's hard to quantify and predict, but I think it's something to factor in when trying to assess our chances.

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