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NCAA Canadian Prospects 2014 (Weekly Updates)


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I have to believe that if he and his handlers felt he was good enough / mature enough for Europe, he would go.  If he doesn't go, I think that says something about his game and his confidence.

 

The last time we had a striker start off his career in Belgium, things worked out pretty damn well.   

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Haber signed a 1+1 year contract at both Maccabi and Apollon Limasol. If he couldn't have played for that year, they would not have attempted to renew him. What happens then? That is the contract that most guys like Larin can expect to get, one and done.

 

 

I don't think he could be competing in Europe and I think you are over-valuing the kid. He is good, but so was Daniel Haber. Daniel had was the Points and Goals leader for Div 1 Cornell. He left Uni for Maccabi Haifa. He still has time to develop, but he went to Maccabi and played 4 games. He is now at Apollon Limassol.

 

For Larin (Just like for Haber) you might consider him a top level talent now, but 7 years ago a number of european clubs did not think he was.

 

You really have to stop comparing Larin to Haber.  For one thing, Haber was a junior his last year of college and for another he was playing in a weak Ivy league division.  While his goal totals were impressive, you have to take into account the competition.  Haber was barely even on anyone's radar even after the extraordinary season he had.  Completely different from Larin.

 

I want Larin to go to Europe because there are so many other possibilities available to him once he gets there.  MLS can be a plateau for many players.  A decent plateau, but one you'd rather settle for when you are 25-26 rather than 19-20.

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Genk is a pretty nice place to start IMO. The level is good but not too high from him to crack into the line-up. They're having a bad season (again) but have been Champions of Belgium twice (if I remember correctly). They produced Courtois and Kevin de Bruyne recently. Great for any forreign player to start in Europe. Besides, it would mean I could go and watch him live myself;-)

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To settle for MLS? What if he, like countless other Canadian trailists over the years, got injured during his trial at said European club. Tough life having to sign a Generation Adidas contract and being the concensus number one pick for MLS. Not like we have countless examples of people leaving MLS now and finding a career elsewhere.

 

First off, no one has said anything about a trial. If what Rollins is saying is that he has a contract offer from Genk then he should sign it, but if it's a trial then he should not risk it. That said, the NCAA season is essentially a 2+ month trial for MLS and as opposed to a pro trial where it's mostly training, they are playing games against kids who don't care if they're a little too tough on you with their tackles. So let's hope he is not added to that list of countless Canadians that gets injured on trial.

 

 

How many teams did Ricketts go to, and how many contract disputes did he end up having?

 

Haber signed a 1+1 year contract at both Maccabi and Apollon Limasol. If he couldn't have played for that year, they would not have attempted to renew him. What happens then? That is the contract that most guys like Larin can expect to get, one and done.

So in the previous post you were comparing NCAA to the old A-League and how great a level it is and how guys like Ibisevic had played there - who incidentally only played one year at St. Louis U. Now it's a comparison to Haber and Ricketts - players who were never drafted into MLS after playing 3 years of college. Larin is projected as the #1 pick overall in the MLS draft, i would say comparing him to either of those guys is erroneous.

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I don't know how you can even say NCAA is the same level as the old A-League with a straight face.  Somehow ~100 NCAA programs of amateur u23s have raised their level to that of second division clubs in 10 years time?  The NASL still exists as the second division (arguably weaker than the old A-League) and then you have the USL Pro as 3rd division (clearly inferior to the old A-League). 

 

Belgium is better than MLS, period.  You can compare players and starting XIs but when you get into the depths of actual clubs (infrastructure, depth, facilities, continental competition, development etc.) Belgium has the advantage for sure.  Put it this way if Belgium was in CONCACAF they would have won multiple Champions Leagues by now.  The world is looking to Belgium right now for ideas as there isn't a nation with a greater generation coming through.. so probably not a good league to compare MLS too, especially if you watched Belgium - USA this past WC.

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I wouldn't assume the Jupiler League is better than MLS.

 

Even if you don't assume that (I'm not going to presume one or the other), you still have to presume that if one wanted to go to bigger European clubs eventually, that the Juliper league is a better starting point than the MLS

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So, the rumor here is that he is offered a trial/contract with Genk?

 

If it's a contract I personally think he should take it. 

 

Belgium has low parity like most European leagues. Young players on teams like Genk (in theory) should get plenty of chances against the weaker teams. Game time in MLS might be harder to come by, especially being an attacker in a league filled with DP strikers.

 

On the issue of MLS versus Pro League quality, I would say that the bottom third in Belgium are below their MLS counterparts. The middle third in Belgium is probably on par with the middle third of MLS. More depth for the Belgian teams here but they lack one or two quality players that virtually every MLS team has. Then, I would rate the top teams in Belgium just a hair above those in MLS, simply for the depth. Again though, the MLS has those one or two guys per team with REAL quality. You don't see that in Belgium, save for Anderlecht.

 

This is based on having a quick scan of the player stats of both leagues at http://fut15.wefut.com/en/player/3071. Sure it is subjective of course, but at least it is some sort of metric to follow. 

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So, the rumor here is that he is offered a trial/contract with Genk?

 

If it's a contract I personally think he should take it. 

 

Belgium has low parity like most European leagues. Young players on teams like Genk (in theory) should get plenty of chances against the weaker teams. Game time in MLS might be harder to come by, especially being an attacker in a league filled with DP strikers.

 

On the issue of MLS versus Pro League quality, I would say that the bottom third in Belgium are below their MLS counterparts. The middle third in Belgium is probably on par with the middle third of MLS. More depth for the Belgian teams here but they lack one or two quality players that virtually every MLS team has. Then, I would rate the top teams in Belgium just a hair above those in MLS, simply for the depth. Again though, the MLS has those one or two guys per team with REAL quality. You don't see that in Belgium, save for Anderlecht.

 

This is based on having a quick scan of the player stats of both leagues at http://fut15.wefut.com/en/player/3071. Sure it is subjective of course, but at least it is some sort of metric to follow. 

 

The one or two guys you refer to on MLS with "real quality" are generally only considered real quality because they've starred in MLS.  So how is that any different than a player tearing it up in Belgium are they then not real quality? 

 

Lee Nguyen for instance is the best "quality" guy on his club team this season but before MLS he was playing in Vietnam.  Graham Zusi, Wondolowski, Eddie Johnson, Kenny Cooper.. guys considered quality by MLS standards who could never make it in Europe.  My point is that many of the names you're browsing over are probably better than MLS stars you've just never heard of them because you don't follow Belgium.  If a Belgium fan were to look at MLS rosters they would come to the same conclusion.  They would see guys who have only previously played at small US universities and think "wow, this league is crap".

 

My point is that every league has it's own stars that the majority of people don't know.  Unless you play in a top international league/competition it is hard to gain that reputation no matter how well you do in your domestic league.  Once you gain that reputation as Lampard, Villa, Defoe etc. have then it's easy to be recognized but it's not a true indicator of league quality.  They are just names.. ultimately we have a guy like Dom Dwyer outscoring Jermain Defoe but is he going to get called for England anytime soon? No chance and if he went back to England he would sign for a Championship club at best.

 

This is why it would be best for Larin to jump to Europe right now IMO.  If he goes to MLS he gets that "domestic star" status and turns into another Wondolowski, Dwyer or Eddie Johnson.. good MLS players who have figured out the league and stagnated in their development but we need an international quality striker for Canada and to do that he should go overseas.  And if he fails there will be a 21 MLS clubs with arms open for him.

 

I believe it is a contract that Genk has offered.  I think for a club to realistically offer Larin a trial they would have to be a club in a top league or a big team in a smaller league.  These clubs have done their homework they know that MLS is going to offer him a deal so a club like Genk would need to do the same.

 

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I get what you're saying: Everyone has their bias towards their league. That is why I based that analysis on the player ratings on http://fut15.wefut.com/en/player/3071 . That allows us to cut through any bias. 

 

Lee Nguyen is having the best season but I don't think he is the best quality. That would go to Jermaine Jones. 

 

Why do you think Graham Zusi or Wondolowski couldn't cut it in Europe? Isn't that a negative-bias on your part?

 

When I said "real quality", I was referring to the Gold rated players. Again, I know it is just based off a game, but it should be relativity free of bias. Matias Suarez and Steven Defour, along with a Club Brugge player I cannot recall, are the only Gold rated players in the league. Again, this is not perfect and there is a fine line between a 75 Gold and a 74 Silver. All the MLS players you listed are Silver btw. The Gold rated players in MLS (maybe 15 or more) are guys like Dempsey, Martins, Donavan, Keane, Defoe, Bradley, Morales, Valeri, Piatti, Henry etc.

 

All those things aside, we both agree that he should try Genk.  

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MLS has a hand up EA's skirt so I'm not sure how much value I place in their rankings, no offense to you I just feel there is a bias toward MLS.. clearly the two are working in partnership.

 

Regardless, I feel the "gold" players are definitely of a high standard and could play in Europe.  But quality IMO is 1 through 18 on a game day roster not just one player.. we've seen matches where top players are missing in MLS and they look NASL level.

 

I don't think that Zusi or Wondolowski could play in Europe (at a high level) because they can't play at the tempo required to be as effective as they are at the next level, just my opinion though.  

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I initially thought that EA would be biased but looking at it player-for-player, it is rather fair I think...

 

Dempsey at 81 for example. Is that unreasonable for a player who has +30 goals and +100 caps? A guy who finished 4th in the EPL scoring chart one year? A guy who had a 1 in 4 goal scoring rate while playing for Spurs? Other guys with an 81 rating are: De Bruyne, Nani, Soldado, Bacca, Walcott, Gervinho, Bony, Kagawa. Does Dempsey somehow not belong in that list of names? To me, he does. It is not like he has the same rating as Rooney or Benzema or Van Persie or Falcao......THAT would be my idea of overrating. I guess it is a matter of personal opinion though.

 

I agree that roster quality in MLS is lacking. You can see that clubs like Genk have an entire squad, 1-18, full of "silver" players. That depth is unheard of in MLS. 

 

I do disagree on your take when it comes to Zusi or Wondo. Andy Najar has acquitted himself well at Anderlecht and I doubt anyone would suggest he was better than either of those guys before making the switch. Kljestan is another. Maybe you don't consider Anderlecht a "high level", but in the context of our discussion it would certainly be a valid comparison - since we are discussing MLS versus Belgium here. 

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I don't know, when it comes to Wondo and Zusi, I actually like both as players.  My honest rating of Wondolowski is he's a bit of a "right place/right time" striker, that can also create wondergoals.  I wouldn't say he relies on service, and is rather a player that has a nose for goal.  He might find it difficult in places like La Liga and the EPL, but I think he'd do okay in Belgium.  He needs a little more time and space than the most solid defenders worldwide would offer him, a lot of his goals are the result of the inefficiency of MLS defenders, in all honesty.  A middle of the road Belgium team would be happy to have him at his PRIME as a starting striker, and he'd even manage as a relief striker for Anderlecht in his PRIME.  (I haven't followed him as much lately, so I'm not sure how his form is, but a couple of years ago...damn fine player)

 

As for Zusi, he never looked out of place to me against teams like Germany in the World Cup...he can become invisible at times, but the same can be said of many wing type players, even in the top leagues.  He was instrumental in goals against both Ghana and Portugal that sent USA into the group stages at the World Cup, and Ghana and Portugal are full of guys that play in top clubs like Sporting CP, Ghana's got guys like Mensah and Boye...class defenders, and Zusi didn't look at all out of place.

 

That said, yeah, Belgium I think had the run of play in the World Cup game against the USA, but keep in mind...all of those top players were DEVELOPED out of Belgium, but Belgium can't hang on to them, they end up at other leagues throughout the world.  Belgium, in other words, has become quite the feeder system, with great development.  So the talent is there, top to bottom, like Obinna was saying on most rosters.  But their TOP guys end up being sold a lot of the time.

 

That's why I think Obinna's assessment of MLS teams (bottom third/middle third/top third) was pretty insightful. A lot of the top belgium clubs have the funds to hang on to their top guys.  I think I agree with how Obinna portrayed it. 

 

On that same token, I agree with Keegan that the top Belgium clubs would be more likely to win the CONCACAF Champions League than the top USA clubs based on how the two leagues are set up structurally.  I also am of the opinion that Mexico clubs on the World Stage would not do too terribly either, though.  But again, unless the UEFA Champions League somehow becomes the World Champions League, (invent teleportation, anyone?) then I think we might have trouble finding out, about Mexico, Belgium, USA, etc. 

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Rundown of Canadians on teams ranked in the Top 25 (as of Sept. 16th):

 

New Mexico (rank: 4)

 

Ben McKendry: Played in all 5 games, started 4.  No goals/assists.

Jason Beaulieu: Played in 3, started 2.  2 wins, 1 loss and 2 clean sheets

 

Washington (rank: 8)

 

Josh Heard: played in all 5 games, started 4.  Tied for second on the team in scoring with 3 goals.

 

Louisville (rank: 9)

 

Nolan Moore: played in all 4 games.

 

Penn State (rank: 10)

 

Mark Wadid: Played in 5 of 6 games, started 1.  Tied for the lead on the team with 3 assists.  No goals.

 

Michigan State (rank: 16)

 

Jay Chapman: Played in 3 of 5 games, started 2.  Scored a goal (tied for team lead)

 

Syracuse (rank: 23)

 

Skylar Thomas: Played in 4 of 6 games, started 4.

Jordan Murrell: Started all 6 games.  Scored 1 goal, assisted on 2.

Alex Halis: Played in all 6 games, started 1.

Chris Nanco: Played in all 6 games, started 4.  Scored 2 goals, assisted on 1.

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Wondo is ultimate poacher in MLS. He is blessed with high footy IQ, but a lot of what he does, esp being at the right place at the right time is instinct. You can't teach instinct like that. The amount of garbage he scores is rather amazing just being at the right place at the right time. 

 

This is why I think NCAA is not the best path for most naturally talented players.

 

I don't know Wondo's youth development history, other than somehow, he ended up going to Div 3 NCAA school, and he's a late bloomer in MLS. I can only imagine what a proper youth development could have done to a guy with his footy IQ from the youth.

 

Cyle Larin is our best youth prospect right now, at least from attackers. I'm not convinced 4 months of NCAA soccer a year is enough for a guy with his talents. At 20, (which he'll be next year), he should be putting finishing touches on his development and he should start getting competitive game mins for the polish. I think he'll get that higher level training and hopefully competitive mins more in Europe than North America. His ceiling is definitely higher, and he should take the chance in Europe to play in the highest level as possible. Where in NA, MLS is about the highest ceiling. 

 

He goes to Europe and is a bust. Ok. He'll take his chance in MLS around 23-24 and hopefully become a good player, just like WIll Johnson's career path. But longer he waits, less chance that he'll make it in Europe (and gets even more difficult if he doesn't have an EU passport).

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He could also go from MLS to Europe because that could be a good option too.

While there are examples of this (Shea, Klesjtan, Ream, Cameron), this doesn't happen enough to make me comfortable that this is a real possibility.

 

Edit: it seems like it is hard to use MLS as a stepping stone to something better.  Maybe it's just my view, but there should be more movement out of MLS.

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He could also go from MLS to Europe because that could be a good option too. He's most likely a top 5 pick and could play right away which can help with his early developments. Cyle Larin is definitely a player to watch when he leaves college games for the pro games.

MLS superdraft can be such a crapshoot that being a high pick is no guarantee that a player will pan out. Nor being a high pick a guarantee that you will get lots of first team mins. You'll get your chance to impress, but that's about it.

 

European teams are scouting MLS and NA more in general. However, unless you're an exceptional talent, you probably won't get noticed. Around 2010 there was quite a few USMNT players that went over like Findley, Eddie Johnson, Kenny Cooper, etc. Good MLS strikers. Found it very hard to break even at Championship level. Generally NA strikers don't do so well in Europe.

 

I think Larin has higher chance of getting noticed in Europe than trying to use MLS as a stepping stone to Europe.

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