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Clock ticking for 2018 WCQ seeding


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It's been a while since I've looked, but could doing well in the September friendlies help?

It's tough to move up the rankings when we only play friendlies. I imagine our performance at the last Gold Cup is the major culprit in our poor showings recently. Can the CSA lobby to join a random Mickey Mouse cup for the sake of having a fair shot in FIFA rankings? And no, they aren't completely meaningless. They mean quite a lot for one month every four years.

Of course, the format for 2018 WCQ is still yet to be released. We may see something new. What are the odds of CONCACAF getting more than 3.5 spots for this cycle?

If FIFA grants 4 full spots to CONCACAF, no more hex !

The format would be different ....

A final octagonal , or two final groups of 6 or even two final groups of 5 ( Like Asia )....... two groups of 4 would be boring

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If FIFA grants 4 full spots to CONCACAF, no more hex !

The format would be different ....

A final octagonal , or two final groups of 6 or even two final groups of 5 ( Like Asia )....... two groups of 4 would be boring

 

"No Sex Till The Octogonal"  is unacceptable.  It doesnt even rhyme.  My and Ladysnooty's chaste vigil continues from the last cycle out of our fanaticism for Canadian football.  But to suggest that this will continue indefinitely, with no chance for redemption, is ludicrous.   FIFA....you have been warned. 

Lordsnooty.

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To me it's a moot point. Sure I'd love us to rank higher and get an easy draw, but lets be realistic. If we are going to make the World Cup we will need to be better and we will need to beat these teams to get there. More games to get there, a row of victories over minnows, or going head to head with a "power" doesn't matter, we need to win to get in.

 

Other than Mexico, USA and Costa Rica we should not be scared of anyone. It's this fear that we might go out to El Salvador,  T & T or Jamaica that holds our team back. Have some faith and confidence.

 

I plan to support them whoever they draw. If we can't beat them in the 1st round, we won't be them in the last round.

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Mr Floro said :

“We are preparing the team for the Gold Cup and to have a good position in CONCACAF (World Cup) qualification in order to prevent a bad positioning in order to avoid extra qualifying rounds for the FIFA World Cup™ Russia 2018,” said Floro after Canada trained at BMO Field on Monday "

I suppose he means to be between the first 6 in CONCACAF. Is there a real chance that Canada will reach that position ? it is 100% sure that CONCACAF will use the march ranking for the draw to Russia 2018 ?

the only chance I see is that CONCACAF uses the ranking of july as all other confederations.

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Just to avoid surprises, when the new rankings come out, it's likely due to the usual Caribbean nation spikes that happen after qualifying matches, that we may drop to 14th or 15th in the rankings.  If this happens, don't be alarmed, it'll settle itself out a bit by December once the whole Caribbean Cup has played its' way through. 

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Is not being in the top 6 and having to play the second round the end of the world?

 

Canada almost looked better for it last time by the time they got to round three, and there wasn't a team ranked below 12 that should have been dangerous.  I don't see a problem, unless we are ranked below 12, and have to deal with a Panama in the same group.  It seemed to help build support and attendance at BMO Field as well.

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+1

 

I look forward to playing in this round. It is a good chance for our boys to get some confidence going against lesser opposition. Not playing in this round and going into the semi-final round cold scares me, since there is not much room for error. Furthermore, we don't play very often and in particular we lack chances to cap players. So all in all I just want us to finish in the top 12 and that's it. No top 6 for me :) 

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The issue isn't playing in the 2nd round, it's the possibility of getting a team like Panama/Honduras/Guatemala in the 2nd round.  Most on here talking about the ranking have said the goal should be top 12 so that we don't have to face any team ranked 6-12 IN that round, so that all our matches are against minnows to gain confidence.

 

After all, if Honduras, for example, dropped to 7th or something in the seedings (not as unlikely as it appears right now), and we got them, only ONE team gets out of that stage, if the procedure is the same as last year

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We could save our older and key players if we're concerned, but then the question becomes "are we good enough to get through that round without our big guns"? I'd like to think yes, but I wouldn't fault anyone for thinking otherwise at this time.

 

Also, long club seasons are more of a threat than an extra round in my opinion. I suppose you can argue that an extra 6 games on top of that doesn't help though...as far as the injury bug is concerned.

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After all, if Honduras, for example, dropped to 7th or something in the seedings (not as unlikely as it appears right now), and we got them, only ONE team gets out of that stage, if the procedure is the same as last year

Hey, you never know. They are certainly dropping la pelota en la Copa Centroamerica. They have to play Nicaragua in the 5/6th place game. A loss and they miss out on the Gold Cup next year. Imagine that. Even if they win they have to play-off with the 5th place team from the Caribbean Championship. Imagine if that team is someone like Jamaica. That would be good for us because that's one less competitor we'd worry about for Copa America 2016 qualification!  

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I feel like all the CSA FIFA love touches in the past few years will pay off into some weird system similar to Gold Cup where we get an automatic buy to a round of 12, say two groups of 6. NA gets 3 spots, Carib playoff for 3, CA gets 6 but doesn't need to playoff because Belize folds. Maybe Haiti and Nicaragua battle for spot 12.

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In the next FIFA rankings, Canada will be 14th or 15th. Nicaragua will pass us if  they beat Honduras in regular or extra time, but not on penalties for the 5th place match.

Of those 13 teams that are sure to be in front of us, we have those that we can forget about passing them unless we beat Spain and Germany in friendlies somehow. I think those are Costa Rica, Mexico, USA, Honduras, Panama, El Salvador, Guatemala. There is no way in my mind that we can pass them until the Gold Cup. Usually they take the March rankings, and we've lost so many points in 2 years, that it will kill us.

 

So, that leaves us with the Caribbean teams. Looking at the teams in front of us, they all have games to play for the GCQ so many will earn tons of points and I'm not sure that they'll stay around Canada's level even with losses, because they've got tons of points. I'll look more at the 3 qualifying groups to be played next month.

 

 

You have for exemple Saint Vincent in a group with Guadeloupe, Martinique and Curacao. 1 win against Curacao and 2 losses against the other 2 non-FIFA members could mean that they would get tons of points without getting a couple of zeros for losses with the FIFA rankings. They have right now 305 points, and I think that with a draw, they would pass us and be eliminated of Gold Cup without losing to FIFA members which helps them.

 

Haiti will be just a point or so behind us is with St Kitts (In front of us), Barbados  (way behind us) and french Guiana (non-FIFA). I do think that it would be better for us if Haiti wins out and that Barbados draws St Kitts in the FIFA related events. Haiti needs 1 draw against those two FIFA teams to pass us, and I don't like to bet against them especially when they're playing the tournament at home.

 

Finally, Trinidad (well in front of us) will host a group with Antigua (who will be in the top 8 when the next rankings come out) Saint-Lucia (just behind us) and Dominican Republic (In front of us) I seriously don't see a good scenario.

 

I seriously expect 4-5 Carribbean teams passing us up no matter what. So, It's 7+4 or 5=12 or 13. Unless we are victorious in Panama (And hopefully they can beat El Salvador to have a higher ranking, because seriously, that is the best case scenario) And that Honduras beats Nicaragua and the Carribean challenger, I don't like our chances in being in the top 12 by March. One interesting way would be to play one of those minnows in January to pass them with a win, but I'm not sure if any Carribean FA would fall for it.

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I feel like all the CSA FIFA love touches in the past few years will pay off into some weird system similar to Gold Cup where we get an automatic buy to a round of 12, say two groups of 6. NA gets 3 spots, Carib playoff for 3, CA gets 6 but doesn't need to playoff because Belize folds. Maybe Haiti and Nicaragua battle for spot 12.

 

I don't see how it would help us. I do think that the fact that we are automatically qualified the Gold Cup is the reason why our FIFA ranking is so low in CONCACAF. The US and Mexico don't see it because they're always there, but imagine if one of those teams missed the Hex, they would probably be in the same position as we were 4 years ago.  And even there, how can the CFU which has 71%+ of the members of CONCACAF fall for it? I highly doubt that they would accept getting even less spots.

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Great breakdown Blackdude. I have a question though. When you say you believe we're likely to be 13th by March, are you considering Winter/Spring? What are our chances if we play a few-mid level European teams early next year and, let's say we get a draw and a win? What if we also play a January friendly against a smaller CONCACAF team and pick up points? 

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Great breakdown Blackdude. I have a question though. When you say you believe we're likely to be 13th by March, are you considering Winter/Spring? What are our chances if we play a few-mid level European teams early next year and, let's say we get a draw and a win? What if we also play a January friendly against a smaller CONCACAF team and pick up points? 

 

I seriously think that if we want to get by a team in front of us, we have to schedule them and beat them. Drawing a team would hurt our ranking right now unless that team is really high in the World rankings like top 20. I do think that the 2013 year was so disastrous and with 2 gold cups where all we got were 2 draws in 4 official FIFA matches that we can't recuperate those points. Our ranking will take a beating in the next couple of months with many official matches losing value where we've really gotten our points for our ranking. But, I think that the country needs to be close and preferably wouln't have lost 0 games since last March for us to be able to get those points back. I may have made an error on the Carribean an Central American coutries' rankings which will drop by January for the islands and by February for the UNCAF. And usually our rankings stay steady during that time of the year. The question is by how much and if it will make a difference that big, but since their rankings are inflated because of that.  If I could get any country in October, I would right now pick Aruba (which could pass us by the end of the year if we don't win) and Cuba (not that strong, but why not mess more with the CFU Championship?) In November, it will depend on who makes it and who doesn't, but Guatemala or El Salvador are not bad choices to go with Van Halen's favourite Central American country.

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We really should lobby to join one of these Mickey Mouse cups. In the interest of fair competition, CONCACAF shouldn't have much reason not to. We're getting passed by countries by virtue of rules that favour them.

Finishing below 13th for WCQ draws could be disastrous. We'd have a high chance of getting eliminated quickly and pointlessly (in a 'minnow' round), resulting in a pathetic one-year cycle for us.

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We really should lobby to join one of these Mickey Mouse cups. In the interest of fair competition, CONCACAF shouldn't have much reason not to. We're getting passed by countries by virtue of rules that favour them.

Finishing below 13th for WCQ draws could be disastrous. We'd have a high chance of getting eliminated quickly and pointlessly (in a 'minnow' round), resulting in a pathetic one-year cycle for us.

Yes.

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I seriously think that if we want to get by a team in front of us, we have to schedule them and beat them. Drawing a team would hurt our ranking right now unless that team is really high in the World rankings like top 20. I do think that the 2013 year was so disastrous and with 2 gold cups where all we got were 2 draws in 4 official FIFA matches that we can't recuperate those points. Our ranking will take a beating in the next couple of months with many official matches losing value where we've really gotten our points for our ranking. But, I think that the country needs to be close and preferably wouln't have lost 0 games since last March for us to be able to get those points back. I may have made an error on the Carribean an Central American coutries' rankings which will drop by January for the islands and by February for the UNCAF. And usually our rankings stay steady during that time of the year. The question is by how much and if it will make a difference that big, but since their rankings are inflated because of that.  If I could get any country in October, I would right now pick Aruba (which could pass us by the end of the year if we don't win) and Cuba (not that strong, but why not mess more with the CFU Championship?) In November, it will depend on who makes it and who doesn't, but Guatemala or El Salvador are not bad choices to go with Van Halen's favourite Central American country.

Well, I really hope the CSA has taken as much time as you have to assess this situation and search for future opponents accordingly. An email to the CSA wouldn't hurt. Would be really shitty if they're of the opinion that we can line up some European teams after January (like always) and magically find ourselves in the top 12.

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Assu

 

We really should lobby to join one of these Mickey Mouse cups. In the interest of fair competition, CONCACAF shouldn't have much reason not to. We're getting passed by countries by virtue of rules that favour them.

Finishing below 13th for WCQ draws could be disastrous. We'd have a high chance of getting eliminated quickly and pointlessly (in a 'minnow' round), resulting in a pathetic one-year cycle for us.

 

Really?

 

Assuming we don't make the cut, how many of the teams in the pot above us are good enough for us to be so fatalistic?

 

Looking at the current standings the teams in the mix seem to be from 6-12 ish.

 

El Salvador 255

-----------------------------------------
7 7 Haiti 237
8 8 Trinidad and Tobago 235
9 9 Jamaica 233
10 23 Aruba 217
11 11 Canada 185
12 10 Cuba 170
-----------------------------------------
13 16 St. Lucia 146
14 17 St. Vincent and the Grenadines

 

Seems to me we have 2/6 or perhaps 3/6 chance of facing a real challenge.

 

It's obviously not ideal but it could still turn out alright. 

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I don't see how it would help us. I do think that the fact that we are automatically qualified the Gold Cup is the reason why our FIFA ranking is so low in CONCACAF. The US and Mexico don't see it because they're always there, but imagine if one of those teams missed the Hex, they would probably be in the same position as we were 4 years ago.  And even there, how can the CFU which has 71%+ of the members of CONCACAF fall for it? I highly doubt that they would accept getting even less spots.

An automatic buy into a final double hex would help us a lot. This thread would be redundant, for example.

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While extra warmup games may help our team will need to avoid injuries and several of our key players are older so I'll take top 6 please.

 

if players are going to get injured chances are its going to be with club team not national team. playing another 6 games over the course of 6 months isn't going to make or break their health. The week in week out training with the club team is what will injure them.

 

I'd rather play the round 2 qualification. We get to build up fan support. Official games to cap tie younger players. Boost our rankings. Boost our confidence. I'd rather have canada qualify for the gold cup as well (provided we play horrible opponents and pretty much guarantee qualification). And if we are assured qualification in our last 2 games we can put out youngsters in official competion.

 

Not to mention we get to go down to Carribean or Central America and get used to the shitty conditions but this time only against weaker opposition so we are more prepared come round 3 or dare i say it the hex.

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