Lucas Cavallini

[deschamp86]

1 hour ago, Aird25 said:

Bair was with the first team all last season, playing in 18 matches. Whitecaps don’t even have a B squad.

 

Whitecaps also don't have depth lol

[Watchmen]

On 12/9/2019 at 10:18 AM, Obinna said:

Say what you want about Vancouver's ineptitude, but even if they struggle as usual, Cavallini as their top scorer and main threat will be a good look, especially if he challenges for the golden boot. If the Whitecaps can make the playoffs with Cavallini, obviously the optics are even better. 

27 year old DP player Cavallini scoring +15 goals leading Vancouver to the playoffs could be enough to generate interest in Europe. 

15 goals wouldn't get him anywhere near the golden boot in MLS anymore.  I like Cavallini, but I think the reality here is that he's the Whitecaps only big acquisition this off season (in part because they've mismanaged their DP spots, in part because they hired a sporting director so late, and in part because they still haven't proven they're not cheap) and casual fans spend the year scapegoating him for not doing more while saying "we spent $5 million on this guy I've never heard of?"  The team got 14 goals out of Kamara  and Montero (the first time around) for a fraction of the price, and casual fans are going to be expecting anyone they bring in for $5 million to do much, much more.

[Bison44]

8 hours ago, Watchmen said:

15 goals wouldn't get him anywhere near the golden boot in MLS anymore.  I like Cavallini, but I think the reality here is that he's the Whitecaps only big acquisition this off season (in part because they've mismanaged their DP spots, in part because they hired a sporting director so late, and in part because they still haven't proven they're not cheap) and casual fans spend the year scapegoating him for not doing more while saying "we spent $5 million on this guy I've never heard of?"  The team got 14 goals out of Kamara  and Montero (the first time around) for a fraction of the price, and casual fans are going to be expecting anyone they bring in for $5 million to do much, much more.

Remember the whining about DeGuzman in toronto???  Casuals expected him to score 10goals a season.  Van isnt a good enough team for him to score too much, but I dont mind if they take some of that Davies windfall and reinvest in a CDN striker/posterboy for the next 3-4 years.  Having Cornelius/Henry/Crepeau/Bair etc made me watch way more Van than usual.  

[Obinna]

9 hours ago, Watchmen said:

15 goals wouldn't get him anywhere near the golden boot in MLS anymore.  I like Cavallini, but I think the reality here is that he's the Whitecaps only big acquisition this off season (in part because they've mismanaged their DP spots, in part because they hired a sporting director so late, and in part because they still haven't proven they're not cheap) and casual fans spend the year scapegoating him for not doing more while saying "we spent $5 million on this guy I've never heard of?"  The team got 14 goals out of Kamara  and Montero (the first time around) for a fraction of the price, and casual fans are going to be expecting anyone they bring in for $5 million to do much, much more.

First of all, 15 goals is still an excellent haul in MLS. +15 goals keeps you near the top of the leaderboard, so if he can do that he'll only enhance his reputation as one of the best strikers in the league. If he can score that many goals he'll probably be in the convo for best newcomer of the year.

That is not particularly far-fetched considering he scored 29 with Puebla over 2 and a half years, in a league superior to MLS. Puebla are a mid to bottom table club depending on the season, so similar situation to Vancouver.

It's not like he was getting world class service at Puebla either, though he would be better off with service. Look at his goal record with Canada, getting service from Davies, David, Osorio, etc.

Anyway, here is to hoping for a successful season if he signs on. Hopefully Vancouver surround him with quality.

[Obinna]

Another thing I found interesting was that Alan Pulido signed with SKC, who were interested in Cavallini beforehand.

On the surface, it looks like Lucas was their first choice. However, Cavallini's discovery rights were held by Vancouver. That means they would have first dibs ahead of SKC and Chicago, who were also wanting to sign him.

In light of that, perhaps Cavallini was/is in a Vancouver or no MLS situation. Just speculating, but since this transfer seems all but done, there were likely no good offers from Europe or Liga MX, which is understandable as Lucas and Puebla had a down year, if not a rotten one. I think they finished 3rd from bottom and Cavallini only had 5 goals, or something like that.

[kacbru]

3 hours ago, Obinna said:

It's not like he was getting world class service at Puebla either, though he would be better off with service. Look at his goal record with Canada, getting service from Davies, David, Osorio, etc.

I don't think it is fair to bring up striker form in the context of the MNT.  The vast majority of our goals have been against teams where I could reasonably provide someone of Cavallini's skill set with the service to pot a bunch of goals. 

Not a dig at Cavallini, but more a comment / caution against reading too much into the performance of any of our recent goal scorers.  6 of Cavallini's 11 goals have come in games we have won by 5 or more.

[Kadenge]

1 hour ago, kacbru said:

I don't think it is fair to bring up striker form in the context of the MNT.  The vast majority of our goals have been against teams where I could reasonably provide someone of Cavallini's skill set with the service to pot a bunch of goals. 

Not a dig at Cavallini, but more a comment / caution against reading too much into the performance of any of our recent goal scorers.  6 of Cavallini's 11 goals have come in games we have won by 5 or more.

He has also scored vs Mexico, USA and Haiti; that is clutch scoring vs the 3 best teams we have faced since JH took over

[kacbru]

7 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

He has also scored vs Mexico, USA and Haiti; that is clutch scoring vs the 3 best teams we have faced since JH took over

Agreed, I don't mean to take anything away from Cav.  In my mind he is our #1 striker.  I'm just wary of the fact that we often overestimate where we sit, performance, etc. and then act surprised when outcomes don't go our way against real competition.

[Bertuzzi44]

2 hours ago, Kadenge said:

He has also scored vs Mexico, USA and Haiti; that is clutch scoring vs the 3 best teams we have faced since JH took over

Exactly. Who was the last Canadian player to score against both Mexico and the USA in competitive matches?

[Watchmen]

12 hours ago, Bison44 said:

Remember the whining about DeGuzman in toronto???  Casuals expected him to score 10goals a season.  Van isnt a good enough team for him to score too much, but I dont mind if they take some of that Davies windfall and reinvest in a CDN striker/posterboy for the next 3-4 years.  Having Cornelius/Henry/Crepeau/Bair etc made me watch way more Van than usual.  

I think this is where we'd disagree on the term "reinvest".  I don't think bringing in a 27 year old who is unlikely to be sold on and is unlikely to draw in casual fans is a good investment of the Davies funds.  Again, I like Cavallini. But he's just not going to be a draw in Vancouver for most people.

[Yohan]

17 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

I think this is where we'd disagree on the term "reinvest".  I don't think bringing in a 27 year old who is unlikely to be sold on and is unlikely to draw in casual fans is a good investment of the Davies funds.  Again, I like Cavallini. But he's just not going to be a draw in Vancouver for most people.

Consistent winning tends to draw more fans...

[Yohan]

On 12/9/2019 at 2:39 PM, SpursFlu said:

I think at 27 this is kinda it. If he wanted to go to Europe he would have already. I'm kinda bored of Europe personally 

I'm starting a new thing.. it's called Americas soccer snob

Really outside of maybe 16 teams in Europe. What's the big attraction? Play for some team in Portugal or Holland that nobody has ever heard of. Is that really all that spectacular?

Hard to blame Cavallini for taking the big bag of money that's thrown in front of him. Man has a family to take care of. 

[Bison44]

4 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

I think this is where we'd disagree on the term "reinvest".  I don't think bringing in a 27 year old who is unlikely to be sold on and is unlikely to draw in casual fans is a good investment of the Davies funds.  Again, I like Cavallini. But he's just not going to be a draw in Vancouver for most people.

How about Cav scoring and helping to win games? Will that be a draw for casuals??  What did you want them to do with the funds??  13.5mil base and with the way Davies has been playing (incentives) prob closer to the 20mil mark.  Even if Cav is 3-4mil....add in InBoem, Adnan etc...they should still have some cash to play with left over.   

[The Beaver 2.0]

42 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

How about Cav scoring and helping to win games? Will that be a draw for casuals??  What did you want them to do with the funds??  13.5mil base and with the way Davies has been playing (incentives) prob closer to the 20mil mark.  Even if Cav is 3-4mil....add in InBoem, Adnan etc...they should still have some cash to play with left over.   

Must admit I was concerned the Caps might overpay to get Cav, but you make an excellent point.  For the record, I am damned excited that he is coming to Vancouver. We just need to get a couple more quality guys around him, which I feel optimistic will indeed happen. 

[BearcatSA]

1 hour ago, Yohan said:

Consistent winning tends to draw more fans...

Definitely, but they need several more key pieces, most notably quality* mids to work with In Beom, in order for that to happen.

* do I have to give a royalty to Caldwell in order to use this word?

[Watchmen]

2 hours ago, Bison44 said:

How about Cav scoring and helping to win games? Will that be a draw for casuals??  What did you want them to do with the funds??  13.5mil base and with the way Davies has been playing (incentives) prob closer to the 20mil mark.  Even if Cav is 3-4mil....add in InBoem, Adnan etc...they should still have some cash to play with left over.   

I'd like to see them invest in younger talent coming out of South America that they can sell on to Europe (in the manner that Atlanta has), while also continuing to give younger Canadian players like Bair a chance.  If you're inserting Cav in to the current line up, it's likely at the expense of Montero.  At this stage I don't think that's a big loss, but let's say it's an upgrade of about 10 goals (Montero had 8 last year, so let's give Cav a generous 18).  That makes them better, but it's not enough.  Add to do that, you're spending at least $5 million on the transfer of Cavillini plus whatever salary he earns.  Of that base 13.5 mil, you're down to 8.5.  Except they also spent a rumoured $1.8m of that as well on InBoem, the transfer fee on Godoy is apparently 1.5 mil, plus whatever they spent on Adnan (which was a complete panic buy when they realized how badly their season was going and how bad optically it would look if they let him leave).  They've also stated they're spending some of that 13.5 on the residence program and other "activities".  Plus, Montero, InBoem, and Adnan are all DPs.  Obviously to bring in Cav something would have to happen with at least one of them (buydown or transfer), but doing something with 2 of them is more difficult.

So I guess from my perspective: this is likely to be the only big move the Whitecaps make, there's no easy way to recoup what they spend on the transfer, and it's not a name that's going to draw in the casual fans.  Hell, on the sports morning show right after discussing the Cavillini rumour, the first text was "this isn't the big name transfer that I want" and the second was "if this is their big move I'm cancelling my Whitecaps season tickets before the full-refund deadline".

[Watchmen]

I guess to add to my above thoughts: this is a move that would make sense for TFC, where they don't care about the cost because they're writing it off against profits elsewhere in MLSE.  Unless there's been a massive philosophical change with the Whitecaps, they very much care about the bottom line and they're not overspending.  That Davies transfer money is going to be all there is spend, probably including the player salaries.

[Aird25]

^^ @Watchmen I’m not sure this is the thread to be playing Football Manager with speculated finances and strategies. 

 I’m excited for the move. I think Cav is a big upgrade and I hope he can help Vancouver be more competitive this season. I can’t wait to see him live

Edited December 12, 2019 by Aird25

[Bison44]

7 hours ago, Watchmen said:

I guess to add to my above thoughts: this is a move that would make sense for TFC, where they don't care about the cost because they're writing it off against profits elsewhere in MLSE.  Unless there's been a massive philosophical change with the Whitecaps, they very much care about the bottom line and they're not overspending.  That Davies transfer money is going to be all there is spend, probably including the player salaries.

I get it what your saying, but bringing in one of the best CDN out there today has to say something to the fans eh?  And he is a guy who the fans will like. With TFC they sign every retread USMNT guy out there, Van making an effort to bring in a top CDN in his prime is something to be happy about.  You could go for a south american, but for every one that works out, there is one that is a bust.  And your average fan wont know any south american player either, its how these guys play once they come that will bring in fans, whether they are from brampton or boca juniors.    

 Inboem is a young DP, not sure if that is different, but he is only at 650g, it would only take what 150 TAm to bring him down, or Cav wouldnt have to be a DP or maybe he would be signed with the max, and given TAM to get his salary up.  I still think if you look at it like an old fashioned trade...Davies for Cav, Inboem, Adnan and Godoy, the whitecaps didnt make out too bad.  Especailly when they were never going to be able to keep Davies in the long run.  

[Mikej]

10 hours ago, Watchmen said:

At this stage I don't think that's a big loss, but let's say it's an upgrade of about 10 goals (Montero had 8 last year, so let's give Cav a generous 18)

 

10 hours ago, Watchmen said:

Hell, on the sports morning show right after discussing the Cavillini rumour, the first text was "this isn't the big name transfer that I want" and the second was "if this is their big move I'm cancelling my Whitecaps season tickets before the full-refund deadline".

Cav had 13 and 11 in his last two seasons in liga mx. I think 18 is possible especially if he gets a little more help around him. I'm not sure why caps fans wouldn't be exited. 18 goals this year would have him 4th in scoring behind Vela, Ibra, and Martinez.  Not sure what what type of big name fans are looking for. A Canadian capable of being a top 5 scorer in MLS seems to be about as good as it gets. I would've been okay with him coming to Toronto even though it's not necessarily a position of need.

[Watchmen]

2 hours ago, Bison44 said:

I get it what your saying, but bringing in one of the best CDN out there today has to say something to the fans eh?  And he is a guy who the fans will like. With TFC they sign every retread USMNT guy out there, Van making an effort to bring in a top CDN in his prime is something to be happy about.  You could go for a south american, but for every one that works out, there is one that is a bust.  And your average fan wont know any south american player either, its how these guys play once they come that will bring in fans, whether they are from brampton or boca juniors.    

 Inboem is a young DP, not sure if that is different, but he is only at 650g, it would only take what 150 TAm to bring him down, or Cav wouldnt have to be a DP or maybe he would be signed with the max, and given TAM to get his salary up.  I still think if you look at it like an old fashioned trade...Davies for Cav, Inboem, Adnan and Godoy, the whitecaps didnt make out too bad.  Especailly when they were never going to be able to keep Davies in the long run.  

TFC brought in Bradley and Altidore at the same age Cavillini is now.

I know I might be in the minority on this, but I don't get excited for "bringing Canadian players home". I want canadian players in the best leagues they can be in, and Liga MX is a better league than MLS. (Note: players should always do what's best for them and their families, and I don't begrudge them for taking the money. Careers are short.). I'd rather the Whitecaps continue to give chances to younger canadians, either from the residency program or from leagues that are inferior to MLS (Crepeau, Cornelius).

But back to Cavallini.  There's no way he's coming to Vancouver as a TAM player. Inboem is a young DP and he can be bought down, but I think as the young DP the portion of his cap hit is less. Though I guess a lot of the rules might change soon, depending on the new CBA.

I guess my thought is: if the Whitecaps can bringing in a legitimate #10 somehow, then that plus Cavallini could be a great combo. But if it's just Cavallini, I don't think it's going to drive the Whitecaps forward (both on and off the field) as much as they need a DP to.

[Shway]

@Watchmen

Everything you're saying I agree with. I think the caps are run like a selling club, no ambition to spend real money to win. Reason why im worried for Cavallini. He should only be a piece to the plan, but he will be treated as the answer. 

Ultimately the Whitecaps need 3-4 more players on top of Luca. Do they have the budget/cap for that is another topic. 

Edited December 13, 2019 by Shway
Damn, i never proof read

[RS]

9 hours ago, Watchmen said:

TFC brought in Bradley and Altidore at the same age Cavillini is now.

It's a minor point, but Altidore was (barely) 25 when he joined TFC. 

[BrennanFan]

38 minutes ago, RS said:

It's a minor point, but Altidore was (barely) 25 when he joined TFC. 

But his body had the wear and tear of a 30 year old, and now its even worse. Damaged goods. 

Conversely Cav is a very young and injury free 26. 

[RS]

9 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

But his body had the wear and tear of a 30 year old, and now its even worse. Damaged goods. 

Conversely Cav is a very young and injury free 26. 

I'm not sure what you're trying to argue here, because those damaged goods are still by far the best big-game player in TFC's history. All I was saying is that he was younger when he joined TFC than Cavallini is now (as was Bradley).

Cavallini will be 27 when the transfer window opens, by the way.