How the bookmakers view our odds of advancing to the HEX

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

http://www.paddypower.com/football/football-matches/world-cup-qualifiers/Honduras-v-Canada-4347091.html

Honduras 8/11 Draw 12/5 Canada 10/3

Assuming the bookmaker's mark-up over the true odds is the same for all 3 bets, we get:

Honduras win: 65.74%

Draw: 19.92%

Canada win: 14.34%

So our odds of advancing to the HEX: about 34.3%

I was saying to people on Friday night at Jamie's (after the Panama game) that I thought it was roughly a toss up 50-50; 55% at most for Canada. 34.3% < 50% I guess I am more optimistic than the "neutral" bookmaker.

Do you agree with these odds? Do they reflect your anxiety? Feel free to post other odds from the other big websites.

[xcalibre]

55% is a bit generous I think, the bookies' numbers look about right (if not generous themselves). They might not realize how vital Occean is to our chances.

I'll still be cheering loudly and biting my nails until Tuesday, mind you.

[jpg75]

For those who go by decimal odds:

Honduras 1.75 Draw 3.20 Canada 4.33

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

Summary - this is how that bookie sees it:

Honduas win = 53%

Draw = 26%

Canada win = 21%

==> They see us as slight underdogs to advance.

Thanks for your analysis. Interesting approach. I am starting to doubt my calculations...In any case, I like your 47% odds better than my 34.3% odds!

Either way, people should prepare for disappointment and hope for the Hex, rather than have any strong expectations we will make the Hex.