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How the bookmakers view our odds of advancing to the HEX

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Honduras 8/11 Draw 12/5 Canada 10/3

Assuming the bookmaker's mark-up over the true odds is the same for all 3 bets, we get:

Honduras win: 65.74%

Draw: 19.92%

Canada win: 14.34%

So our odds of advancing to the HEX: about 34.3%

I was saying to people on Friday night at Jamie's (after the Panama game) that I thought it was roughly a toss up 50-50; 55% at most for Canada. 34.3% < 50% I guess I am more optimistic than the "neutral" bookmaker.

Do you agree with these odds? Do they reflect your anxiety? Feel free to post other odds from the other big websites.

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Summary - this is how that bookie sees it:

Honduas win = 53%

Draw = 26%

Canada win = 21%

==> They see us as slight underdogs to advance.

Thanks for your analysis. Interesting approach. I am starting to doubt my calculations...In any case, I like your 47% odds better than my 34.3% odds!

Either way, people should prepare for disappointment and hope for the Hex, rather than have any strong expectations we will make the Hex.

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