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If we make the hex, how will we do it?


Sam

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This debate has been taking place on a lot of individual threads, but I'm curious what do people think is more likely?

If we make the hex will it be because of a superior goal difference to Honduras after a good result against Cuba? Or is it more likely we make the hex by picking up a result in Honduras (win or draw depending on their game against Panama)?

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It would be crazy if we could pump a boatload past Cuba and almost clinch it (assuming Panama beats Honduras). In the Canada-Cuba prediction thread I pessimistically predicted 1-0, and I haven't seen enough ruthlessness in front of goal to make me too uncomfortable with that prediction. But the thought of beating Cuba by three or more, and then going to Honduras simply not having to lose by a bunch makes me a bit giddy.

Lets hope for a Cuban team that is just the right mix of deflated, inexperienced, short-benched and non-acclimatized. And then a couple of quick goals to break their spirit early on. And maybe a red card to them for a rash challenge... that doesn't result in an injury.

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It would be crazy if we could pump a boatload past Cuba and almost clinch it (assuming Panama beats Honduras). In the Canada-Cuba prediction thread I pessimistically predicted 1-0, and I haven't seen enough ruthlessness in front of goal to make me too uncomfortable with that prediction. But the thought of beating Cuba by three or more, and then going to Honduras simply not having to lose by a bunch makes me a bit giddy.

Lets hope for a Cuban team that is just the right mix of deflated, inexperienced, short-benched and non-acclimatized. And then a couple of quick goals to break their spirit early on. And maybe a red card to them for a rash challenge... that doesn't result in an injury.

Yeah, if we can get one in the first 10 minutes or so, that would do wonders for deflating them, and maybe force them to go for it and leave themselves open. I am dreaming of a keeper red card (and penalty) on them, which would give us a chance at a goal, play vs. 10, and force a sub from them early on a cold night. :)

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Question guys how does the goal differential work to our benefit if we go to honduras lets say after a 3-0 win at home we would be +3 which means that honduras would have to beat us by 3 goals? just want to make sure i understand this

Assuming Honduras lost to Panama by 1 goal:

If Honduras beats us by 1 goal, they would move from +1 to +2. We would go from +3 to +2. Both teams would be have the same goal difference but Honduras would go through on head-to-head difference.

Assuming Honduras lost to Panama by 2 goals:

If Honduras beats us by 1 goal, they would move from 0 to +1. We would go from +3 to +2. Although we lost, we go to the Hex.

Assuming Honduras wins by 1 goal against Panama:

If we win vs Honduras we are in. If we lose, we are out. If we draw, we are both at +3. If we draw 0-0 I dunno what happens. If we draw 1-1 or 2-2 or 3-3 etc, we go through on away goals.

Assuming Honduras wins by more than 1 goal:

We have to beat Honduras to go through. A draw would leave us at +3, they would be at +4 or greater.

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Another thing people don't seem to have mentioned is that us winning by a few goals could be beneficial if Honduras wins in Panama.

e.g. Honduras beats Panama 1-0. We beat Cuba 3-0. Now, we are tied in points (10) with Honduras, and we are both at 5 GF vs. 2 GA. In this case, it keeps open the possibility of a draw in Honduras being enough to get us through. That is, if Panama beats Cuba on the last match day, and we tie Honduras 1-1, we're through by having more away goals vs. Honduras (they tied us 0-0 in Toronto). If we tie them 0-0, then I believe we go to extra time, and penalties, I believe?

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Our GD needs to be better than theirs. Currently theirs is two goals better than ours. If they win in Honduras that would give them another +2 for a total advantage of +4. If we beat Cuba and Honduras lose to Panama, the total GD in those two matches must be at least 4 goals for us to have any chance of winning on GD (if it is tied then the team that has scored more goals wins, which likely won't be us). So, realistically, the total GD in those two matches must be at least 5 goals for us to have any chance on GD. Not very likely.

Yes 100% correct.

I had a dream that Cuba beat Panama in Havana and we advanced to the Hex. There has always been strage things that happen in qualifying, so I am assuming the Panaminians don't want to go play on crab grass and be forced to win or tie in Cuba. I feel eventually the Cubans will score(might be wrong, like my dream) so just praying they do not find the back of the net vs Canada.

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Another thing people don't seem to have mentioned is that us winning by a few goals could be beneficial if Honduras wins in Panama.

e.g. Honduras beats Panama 1-0. We beat Cuba 3-0. Now, we are tied in points (10) with Honduras, and we are both at 5 GF vs. 2 GA. In this case, it keeps open the possibility of a draw in Honduras being enough to get us through. That is, if Panama beats Cuba on the last match day, and we tie Honduras 1-1, we're through by having more away goals vs. Honduras (they tied us 0-0 in Toronto). If we tie them 0-0, then I believe we go to extra time, and penalties, I believe?

If that whole scenario occurred, it results in a one game, neutral site playoff with extra time/penalty rules.

Also I like the wiki for the home/away playoff tiebreak

The away goals rule is again applied after extra time, i.e. if there are goals scored during extra time and the aggregate score is still level, the visiting team qualifies by virtue of more away goals scored. If no goals are scored during extra time, the tie is decided by jumping off a cliff. so in the end the whole dies.

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Our GD needs to be better than theirs. Currently theirs is two goals better than ours. If they win in Honduras that would give them another +2 for a total advantage of +4. If we beat Cuba and Honduras lose to Panama, the total GD in those two matches must be at least 4 goals for us to have any chance of winning on GD (if it is tied then the team that has scored more goals wins, which likely won't be us). So, realistically, the total GD in those two matches must be at least 5 goals for us to have any chance on GD. Not very likely.

Yes, pretty much nailed it there. If Canada wants to be able to lose in Honduras and still make it to the hex:

x + y > 3 + 2z

where x = goals Canada beats Cuba by, y = goals Panama beats Honduras by, and z = goals Honduras beats Canada by.

ex. Canada beats Cuba 3-0, Panama beats Honduras 2-0. Canada goes into the last game at +3, Honduras at +0. So Canada can lose 1-0 and still be +2 whereas Honduras would be +1. If Canada wins 4-0 and Panama wins 3-0, then it's +4/-1. And they could lose 2-0 to make it +2/+1.

See, the math is easy! haha

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I agree with the sentiment that it would be nice if we could score 5 or 6 (although I think a draw in Honduras is much more likely), but I think Hart's idea of "not trying to win the game in the first 10 minutes" should come into play. We need to go into this game with the idea that a win is a very good result and anything else is a bonus. Stay calm, focus on scoring whether it comes early or late and remaining tight at the back so we don't have a game like the U-23s had against Cuba where they gave up that last minute equalizer despite dominating the match.

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Or like when we tried to do that to St. Lucia at BMO and conceded a goal in the 7th minute.

The St. Lucia game is a good example. St. Lucia is without a doubt the worst "professional" football team I've ever seen live (and I've seen TFC), but we still had about a 45-50 minute gap without a goal, because we kept trying to force it and recover right away instead of being patient waiting for the chances and taking them when they come.

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