CBoC study finds Canada could support 3 more MLS teams by 2035

[jpg75]

I'm kind of skeptical because of the politics involved (US/Canada split of teams), but hey we can dream right?

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1245973--canada-ripe-for-three-new-nhl-teams-major-league-sports-expansion-conference-board-says

"The report says economic and demographic trends suggest Canada could support three new NHL teams, major league baseball in Montreal, an NBA franchise in Vancouver and as many as three, new Major League Soccer teams.

...The report’s authors looked at population growth trends in specific markets, the effects of an aging population, the strength of the Canadian dollar and income growth to predict which cities will be able to support big-league sports."

[VWFC]

Interesting read. We definitely don't give ourselves enough credit in Canada. Countries a lot smaller than us support very high level leagues in multiple sports. Its frustrating that we are so dependant on the US.

[ag futbol]

I'd be interested to know how they arrived at those figures... particularly how they analyzed cultural demographics and attitudes towards the sports themselves.

People consistently underestimate the difference in attitudes towards our sport between a few of the major markets and everywhere else. Quite literally, I remember going from Toronto to Halifax during the last world cup and the commentary shifted from absolute fever to bemused indifference. The radio station had their morning phone in show set to: "World cup soccer: aura of the European or pansy metrosexual?" ... you can imagine the enlightened commentary that followed.

That being said, things are shifting quite a bit and you never know what the future holds. Think that strong national team performances could be a real driver of the market for additional MLS teams.

[A_Gagne]

USSF requires 75% of teams in any sanctioned league to be USA based. That would definitely be attainable with even just a modest increase in American teams. It would depend on:

- (a) these 3 cities would have to prove they are "soccer markets" - e.g. via success at the NASL level. The problem being that unlike the MLS, the NASL is currently maxed out in terms of it's non-USA content. There are committed owner ship groups in two of the three cities thought.

- ( The MLS would have want to expand, let alone want to expand north of the 49th.

The last point I think if the piece de resistance. Committed ownership groups exist in two of three cities, and would only need to prove their financial credentials. However, the league was established under a vision of improving US soccer and expanded into Canada was done back when the league wasn't in great financial shape, and quite frankly needed money. Times have changed however, and I'm not sure they would be keep on further expansion. On the other hand, who knows, perhaps by 2035 the NASL might be a peer competitor with the MLS and in terms of quality, NASL vs. MLS might be a mute point, or the rise of the NASL could force the MLS's hand.

[mmd]

Been ages since i've commented on anything. But always reading. I hope what A_Gagne said comes true. Personally I like the way of the NASL. Single table, everyone finds their own sponsors. NASL would be perfect for many Canadian cities. Slow growth but steady. Soccer is growing, but not many owners willing to dish out $40 million or whatever the price tag is now for MLS. Maybe the USSF and the CSA can come to some type of agreement regarding requirements. They both want the sport to grow. Not like all US based MLS teams are setting attendance records. It's a free market in North America, lets keep the same rules in sports. Stop pumping money into dead and going nowhere franchises. If that means dropping a US based team for a Canadian one, so be it.

[Cyrus]

With respect to the 25-50 year future of MLS, I can only see three options:

1. Great success! The whole thing becomes big, rivalling baseball as America and Canada's summer sport. And expansion continues unfettered to anyone that will pay the expansion fee. That means that MLS becomes, in practice, two conferences, playing separate schedules, with no inter-league play, expect for cup and playoffs, along the old model of MLB's American League and National League. This allows for each conference top out at 20 teams, although 16 or 18 would be more likely. In an MLS of 32 teams, you'd have room for 8 "foreign" teams. 6 Canadian, Puerto Rico, and Port-au-Prince (following Haiti's triumphant economic recovery!).

2. Just like the 80's. Failure. MLS fails to catch on in the USA, a crowded television landscape leads to no revenues, because all their potential fans spend all their time watching the Mexican Second Division and the third round of the FA Cup. Some cities have no fans, expensive new stadiums fail to recoup any profit, and the whole thing collapses under the plain fact that the sport is costing more money than it is making, and they aren't even overpaying the players, so there is no room to squeeze them. If MLS collapses, that is where a professional league in Canada could pop up -- Saputo and MLSE have stadiums and team branding built, they would want to use them for something (hopefully the Whitecaps will have built a stadium by then too). Three teams does not a Canadian league make, you would need teams in Ottawa, Quebec City, Hamilton, Calgary, etc. But that is the scenario that we, as Canadian supporters, might be hoping for, a CFL for soccer... our own league. It wouldn't be huge, but it would be ours, and paid for by our own companies.

3. MLS is just like hockey in the US. It just keeps chugging along, like hockey has since the first wave of expansion 40 years ago, but MLS doesn't become a clear success or a clear failure. Franchises come, and go, and get relocated occasionally. LA goes from two teams, to one, to three, players go from being underpayed, to overpayed and back again. And basically the league is a constant source of drama and tension to the supporters, rather than a bastion of stability, player development and pride. And 50 years from now, Mexican clubs are still kicking our asses in the Champions League.

What will actually happen with MLS? I expect it will be option 3 -- it'll just keep chugging along. I just don't see MLS trending to either a clear success (that means more Canadian clubs in MLS) or a clear failure (that would justify a Canadian league). Get used to MLS, my friends, I think that what we see is what we get, for the foreseeable future.

[pappinchris]

I would say something in between option 1 and 3...Quality and coverage seems to have picked up the last few years (ie. TSN who could not have cared less about it a few years ago has picked up rights/you can highlights of the Cnd teams and of course the bigger matches NY,LA,SEA etc..) Also from my observation the quality of play has got a bit better over past few years as well. Attendance is going up as well with the exception of a couple teams (Revs, DC United etc.)

[ThiKu]

The greatest chance MLS has to compete is if the Champions League truly enforces FFP, and/or more clubs turn into the current Rangers FC.

MLS has a super-low salary cap, and relatively cheap youth program (DA, academy, NCAA). Players want to go where they are guaranteed a pay cheque, and that helps too. If they can sign more Koffie's and Higuain's, and Felipe's this league will really start to thrive.

[Macksam]

The greatest chance MLS has to compete is if the Champions League truly enforces FFP, and/or more clubs turn into the current Rangers FC.

MLS has a super-low salary cap, and relatively cheap youth program (DA, academy, NCAA). Players want to go where they are guaranteed a pay cheque, and that helps too. If they can sign more Koffie's and Higuain's, and Felipe's this league will really start to thrive.

Yeah. It would be awesome if European Football completely collapsed. That would give MLS the opportunity to swoop in and steal the talent.

MLS will stay the best league in the world when it eventually becomes the best league in the world.

[Juby]

I would say something in between option 1 and 3...Quality and coverage seems to have picked up the last few years (ie. TSN who could not have cared less about it a few years ago has picked up rights/you can highlights of the Cnd teams and of course the bigger matches NY,LA,SEA etc..) Also from my observation the quality of play has got a bit better over past few years as well. Attendance is going up as well with the exception of a couple teams (Revs, DC United etc.)

Like it's somewhat been mentioned, I think it's the American figures we probably need to worry about, because even succesfully our MLS clubs probably won't be as big as our NHL clubs, and were 1/9th the market size, could even six good Canadian MLS teams help prop up the league if it doesn't succeed in the states? That's why I'm curious about American TV figures, I had heard 80 000 earlier this year which in all honesty isn't good enough, it probably has to get 50% to 100% more popular fairly soon to be doing well.

Edit: mid post I did my own research, if this is a reputable site, I added up l think 10 444 000 and divided it by 56 games for 186 500 average which is a lot better, it probably still has a good distance to go long term but it's better then 80 000. (I discounted a Chivas game that got 0, that's gotta be a mistake right? 183 200 with it). http://www.tvmediainsights.com/2012/07/major-league-soccer-tv-ratings-in-2012/