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What are our chances to get past the knock out round?


derofan

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Hey Guys

So I watched the USA game last night and I was not impressed with the US side the first goal Lars let in was pure crap!!!! and for that I would start Borjan the rest of the way. Technically last night we should of tied 1-1 with Gerba having some great chances if not for howard anways I am assuming the minimum we need to get out of the knockout's would be 4 points given that we have only conceeded 2 goals versus the 5 that cuba and el salvador have conceeded. So I assume 4 points? What are your thoughts

I say 3-1 win against Guadloupe and

1-1 tie to Panama would be enough

Worst case scenario

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Basically, eight of the twelve teams in the Gold cup make it to the second round. So I cannot imagine how we wouldn't make it. A 2-0 loss against the favored team in your group is very good from the goal differential perspective. In the bigger picture, Hart has stated about a year ago that the focus on the Gold cup will change in that it will serve as preparation for WCQ and I agree with this . This means that how we play will be just as important as the actual results.

Therefore the match against Panama will be key test and barometer of where we stand in so far as our readiness for WCQ because panama is the kind of side that we have to defeat in order to get to the final group. If we go into WCQ without the confidence that we can handle the likes of Panama, El Salvador, Guatemala, Jamaica ...etc then you forget about Costa Rica and Honduras never mind the US and Mexico.

Mexico and the US kind of stand alone in this region. We need to show that we belong in that next tier with the other central American countries and Jamaica. So we can sort of write off how we played yesterday and focus on a few of the positives but if we look like that when playing that second tier group of sides, then it doesn't look good and some bigger changes and bolder player selections will be needed.

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What are our chances to get past the knockout round? Well that would require winning the damn thing again so I'd suggest very little chance. Us winning the GC appears a once in twenty-ish years kind of thing....probably in a non-Confederation cup year.

So what you are asking is what are chances to get by the group stage? Pretty damn good. Play as we did v. GDB and Pan and we'll be just fine.

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C2 (hopefully us) plays B1 (likely Honduras or Jamaica, maybe Guatemala; my money says Honduras) in the quarter-final. That's winnable. If we get out of that one we get the winner of C1 and A3/B3. C1 is probably the United States and you have to favour them to beat A3/B3 (if I were to bet I'd say Jamaica) whoever it is. As we just saw, a game against the Americans can be won even if it probably won't be. That moves us to the final, and frankly I'm already happy. Our chances of getting through to the final on that path are maybe 25%.

If we finish third, we play Mexico in the first round and that's a big ask. If, through some miracle, we get through Mexico then we're up against the winner of A2 and B2, which I think will be Costa Rica but could go in a bunch of different directions. That's a winnable game but is probably tougher than our quarter-final would be in the first path.

So for God's sake finish second.

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What if we finish 2nd and beat panama and guadeloupe who would we face. i would prefer costa rica over honduras or mexico to be honest :)

Quoting myself:

C2 (hopefully us) plays B1 (likely Honduras or Jamaica, maybe Guatemala; my money says Honduras) in the quarter-final. That's winnable. If we get out of that one we get the winner of C1 and A3/B3. C1 is probably the United States and you have to favour them to beat A3/B3 (if I were to bet I'd say Jamaica) whoever it is. As we just saw, a game against the Americans can be won even if it probably won't be. That moves us to the final, and frankly I'm already happy. Our chances of getting through to the final on that path are maybe 25%.

If we beat Panama and Guadeloupe, we're C2 and automatically drawn against the winner of group B (B1).

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Overall I would say the chances are great bc so many teams advance.

I don't like that we had to start against the US. First of all the Guadeloupe game will not be easy but it is the key game in my mind. If we can get rolling and get some confidence going I don't think it matters who we face in the quarters and ALL games can be considered "winnable", but I don't like the idea of barely eeking out a win and a tie and then expecting to beat Honduras or Jamaica.

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From what I gather if we finish either 2nd or 3rd the possible countries we face are 2nd place scenario Jamaica, Guatemala Honduras( because the standings are still tight) or 3rd place scenario either costa rice or mexico. Personally I would prefer group b as I dont want to Face Mexico or the Ticos right now at this point but imo we need to demoslish Guadeloupe and beat Panama at least 3-1

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After watching most of the Panama-Guadeloupe match, there is no doubt in my mind that we are going to beat both. Barring a complete meltdown against the Panamanians, we will end up C2 and will probably face Honduras (unless Jamaica suddenly gets hot god forbid). I have a real love/hate relationship for matches against the Hondos, seeing as how they ALWAYS show up to play hard/dirty/****ty against us, but they aren't as strong as the squad that went to the World Cup and are beatable. If Willy J can learn to score for the Nats, we will definitely beat them if we meet them in the quarters (just remember that point blank attempt he fudged in the match in '09). Inevitably it will be Willy J who ends up with the golden chance, but will he finish it this time??

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Im not as confident as you are they south american and central american teams always find a way to screw us over. For instance wasting time by faking injuries when they are leading ie (the ecuador match or any honduran match we play) last honduran gold cup squad was about the same caliber as this one and we still lost 1-0 I say that if we cannot score at least 4 goals in the next two games and get some confidence we will not pass the quarters but I hope im wrong :S. One thing I will say that if we face the us again we will beat them I just think that our last game against them we beat ourselves with poor marking and crappy goal keeping next time round Ali will get his revenge

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Hey Guys

So I watched the USA game last night and I was not impressed with the US side the first goal Lars let in was pure crap!!!! and for that I would start Borjan the rest of the way. Technically last night we should of tied 1-1 with Gerba having some great chances if not for howard anways I am assuming the minimum we need to get out of the knockout's would be 4 points given that we have only conceeded 2 goals versus the 5 that cuba and el salvador have conceeded. So I assume 4 points? What are your thoughts

I say 3-1 win against Guadloupe and

1-1 tie to Panama would be enough

Worst case scenario

1. What kind of logic says that you shouldn't count the goal Lars let in on a low hard shot towards the post, but you should count a goal that was saved by Howard. Should have been 1-1? Hardly. Not to mention to questionable no calls which could have led to USA PKs. Canada played decent for parts of the match, but in no way should have left with anything but a loss.

2. We can assume USA will beat Guadalupe. Meaning as long as Canada beats 1 of Guadalupe or Panama they should be good. The only scenario that may not get them in if they draw w/ Guadalupe would be a draw draw. I think 3 points gets them out.

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1. What kind of logic says that you shouldn't count the goal Lars let in on a low hard shot towards the post, but you should count a goal that was saved by Howard. Should have been 1-1? Hardly. Not to mention to questionable no calls which could have led to USA PKs. Canada played decent for parts of the match, but in no way should have left with anything but a loss.

2. We can assume USA will beat Guadalupe. Meaning as long as Canada beats 1 of Guadalupe or Panama they should be good. The only scenario that may not get them in if they draw w/ Guadalupe would be a draw draw. I think 3 points gets them out.

What questionable no calls that could have led to US PKs? I saw a questionable no call in the scramble where Simpson was saved and then Gerba was robbed yet again, Jackson on the initial play is clearly hauled down with a full arm around him by the American defender.

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What questionable no calls that could have led to US PKs? I saw a questionable no call in the scramble where Simpson was saved and then Gerba was robbed yet again, Jackson on the initial play is clearly hauled down with a full arm around him by the American defender.

As I said a number of times: NFL Football tackle. It was clear as mud. Even if the Ref missed it, that's one the Assistant should have flagged.

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Penalty Kick

Lets face it the 1st goal was an out of position shot that should of been saved hands down so dont tell me that it should be counted Lars let us down and imo that would of been saved by Borjan. We definately gave a goal that should never of been. Logic dictates that is a routine save. Even Forest agrees to that if you heard what he said. We must remain objective in that we gave them the lead on a blunder but USA did not show the finishing touch to put us away by a large amount therefore that in itself is a victory for us.

We also had some questionable calls in the box when jackson was hauled down. I was not really impressed with usa and imo we will beat them if our paths cross again. Simpson also had a chance to put it in but howard came out to save it. I say 1-1 because we could of easily tied it and the 2nd US goal was pure skill

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Last I checked the goalies are part of the game, theirs was good and ours wasn't. Might the next game be different? Sure. We might win the next meeting against the US, or we might lose 2-0 again or maybe by even more if Landon Donovan comes to play...

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2. We can assume USA will beat Guadalupe. Meaning as long as Canada beats 1 of Guadalupe or Panama they should be good. The only scenario that may not get them in if they draw w/ Guadalupe would be a draw draw. I think 3 points gets them out.

Nah, Canada needs at least 4 points to advance.

ES will probably beat Cuba, so the 3rd place team in Group A will have 4 points and probably -2 to -4 goal difference. So the GD is not a problem, but Canada needs 4 points.

Group B also shaping-up for three teams to get 4 points or more. But even if the 3rd place team in Group "B" only has 3 points, they will probably have a positive goal difference, which Canada probably won't be able to top (unless of course they get at least 4 points).

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Penalty Kick

Lets face it the 1st goal was an out of position shot that should of been saved hands down so dont tell me that it should be counted Lars let us down and imo that would of been saved by Borjan. We definately gave a goal that should never of been. Logic dictates that is a routine save. Even Forest agrees to that if you heard what he said. We must remain objective in that we gave them the lead on a blunder but USA did not show the finishing touch to put us away by a large amount therefore that in itself is a victory for us.

We also had some questionable calls in the box when jackson was hauled down. I was not really impressed with usa and imo we will beat them if our paths cross again. Simpson also had a chance to put it in but howard came out to save it. I say 1-1 because we could of easily tied it and the 2nd US goal was pure skill

Soccer teams have 11 players on the field. One of them is a goalie. USA's played far better. Howard's a world class goalie. That's likely not going to change if there is a next time around. Now...

Watch http://www.goldcup.org/page/GoldCup/Video/HighlightsDetail2/0,,12802~2373567,00.html

1. Altidore's goal catches Lars off guard. Watch him motion to a defender just before the goal. That's partially not being ready by him, but there aren't many other players in this tournament that can pull off a shot that quick and with that much pace as Jozy did there.

2. I think you're forgetting about how many chances the US had. That highlight it's at-least 2/1, and Canada's best look doesn't come until after the US go up 2-0 and start sagging some. The US has NEVER had the interest/killer instinct to beat teams 5-0 like the Mexicans have. Not saying the US would have beaten Canada by that score, but it's been well represented in the past that the US would much rather get up 2-0, sag some, keep players fresh and healthy for the next match. Sure the US didn't have a killer finishing touch, but Canada had no finishing touch... they never got the ball in the back of the net.

I guess we'll have to wait and see if Canada could beat the US, but Canada has a lot of work to do. That likely includes a win and a draw, then a win over the top team in group b. Very little room for error coming up.

The US will likely breeze to the Group C title, and get a fairly easy knockout round 1 game vs. El Salvador.

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3 will probably be enough, the only problem with that though is that we'd likely end up playing Mexico. 4 is more than doable. I'd be extremely disappointed if we don't end up with all 6 still up for grabs

This. Canada should consider the tournament a let down if it doesn't finish 2nd in its Group with 6 points.

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