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Can Soccer dethrone Hockey as Canada's national game?


An Observer

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The 24 non-Argo games played since Sept. 1 regularly outdrew the NFL nationally, but averaged only 40,000 viewers in Toronto. That's less than half of what the NFL drew here.

This snippet doesn't surprise me and could be used to generate a very different spin by a writer with a different agenda. The Argos clearly still have a bit of a following (pre-Blue Jays they were very much the team people followed in the GTA in the summer/fall months after all) but wider interest in the league is lukewarm at best. Pretty much the picture I'd expect.

The same could be said of TFC fans, their interest lies only with the club and not with the rest of MLS - as the kerfuffle with MLS Cup tickets so resolutely exposed.

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...and? Not sure where you are headed with that. Yes the same could clearly be argued about MLS. The difference is that as the new kid on the block there is much more growth potential for MLS as playing standards improve to a level that more people find watchable (right now it's far from stellar for a top tier national pro league) than there is for the CFL, which as others have been reminding us is arguably at a historic high right now. That's why I think it is far from unreasonable to suggest that MLS could very much eclipse the CFL in popularity terms in the GTA within another decade or two even if things are still likely to be a lot closer to the traditional pattern in that regard in Prairies cities like Regina and Calgary. One size doesn't neatly fit all culturally any more from coast to coast in an increasingly diverse and multicultural society.

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What about people who watch soccer leagues from overseas rather than a local team every weekend? In soccer it's a fragmented market in that regard but MLSE people like Paul Beirne and Richard Peddie have talked about how they were shocked when they saw how big the combined figure was and it was one of the factors that convinced MLSE to take the plunge where BMO Field and MLS expansion was concerned.

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What about people who watch soccer leagues from overseas rather than a local team every weekend? In soccer it's a fragmented market in that regard but MLSE people like Paul Beirne and Richard Peddie have talked about how they were shocked when they saw how big the combined figure was and it was one of the factors that convinced MLSE to take the plunge where BMO Field and MLS expansion was concerned.

It's Toronto, you know the demographics, you know the TV ratings for EPL, Serie A etc. figure it out who's watching those games. Most of those Euros might watch TFC, but most of them won't watch Columbus vs. Chicago on Thursday night game of the week or Vancouver vs. Kansas City at 10pm ET on Saturday night.

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Personally I think the popularity of almost everything mainstream is purchased. Soccer is a curious and infuriating exception which is why most media people hate it. It truly is a grass roots movement (for want of a better word).

The question is does the media cover what is popular or define it?

If you want xxxx covered in the Star, Now Magazine, Eye... buy advertising. Get the coverage. Purchase the front cover if you like. That's how it works, and that means the answer to the question above is the latter, not the former.

The current interest in soccer is driven by nothing. It has been held back by extreme incompetence, negligence and criminal activity in the millions of dollars. Soccer is where it is today in spite of all of this.

The original question for this thread can't be answered without first figuring out where culture ends and business begins. I don't think many people would like the answer. I lean way more towards the business than the culture.

The culture is for sale, and the people with the keys doing the selling will change masters tomorrow for $1 more.

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Thank you for validating exactly what I thought. The actual Argos viewership in the Toronto area is similar to what Toronto FC gets on their bests days.

These 06 ratings are pre people meter days when it underestimated the number of people in the room (let alone in a bar) were watching. Especially underestimated sports audiences and other events where more people watched as a group. Based on the increases seen by under the people meters in the past 1 year or so, the 138k Argos 06 figure should be adjusted to about 190k for the Argos.

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It's Toronto, you know the demographics, you know the TV ratings for EPL, Serie A etc. figure it out who's watching those games. Most of those Euros might watch TFC, but most of them won't watch Columbus vs. Chicago on Thursday night game of the week or Vancouver vs. Kansas City at 10pm ET on Saturday night.

...because MLS is still too low a standard to sustain that level of interest right now when there is plenty of higher quality soccer readily available from elsewhere. MLS teams are investing in player academies for a reason. They know they can't keep leaving it to youth clubs and the NCAA to do player development for them for free if they want to take things to the next level in playing standards terms and get more "Eurosnobs" (who in reality can be of any demographic background) to take the league seriously. The fans are out there in much larger numbers closer to World Cup level interest if the league can improve the product on offer.

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TV ratings are only part of the story. You have to consider the per viewer value of those ratings.

You can only charge so much for an ad. The number ads per minute/per viewer you can get into a soccer game vs just about anything is enough to make any producer/tv executive have a coronary.

It's not just viewers, it's (viewers) x (ads/minute) = revenue. Or something like that, with additional factors like the perceived value of those viewers as well.

You probably need ten times the number of viewers of a soccer game to equal the revenue potential for almost anything else.

This doesn't mean the revenue model is going to stay the same. It most certainly isn't. There is a massive pool, fragmented as it is, of people out there.

Whoever figures out how to leverage it first, wins really really big.

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...because MLS is still too low a standard to sustain that level of interest right now when there is plenty of higher quality soccer readily available from elsewhere. MLS teams are investing in player academies for a reason. They know they can't keep leaving it to youth clubs and the NCAA to do player development for them for free if they want to take things to the next level in playing standards terms and get more "Eurosnobs" (who in reality can be of any demographic background) to take the league seriously. The fans are out there in much larger numbers closer to World Cup level interest if the league can improve the product on offer.

But is there any evidence that the quality of the product is really holding back the ratings? If the demographics of the crowd at BMO is any indication alot of the people watching Euro games already support TFC - and they're Ok with what it is - so you're probably not going to dramatically increase TFC ratings much among the established fans. Sure you'll attract some Eurosnobs and more casuals, but more people already watch TFC than they do EPL or Serie A on Canadian TV. Both TFC and Euro games are equally accessible so if it's a matter of quality then why don't Euro ratings dwarf TFC ratings? People are onboard with TFC and CFL because they're a local product, they watch and will continue to do so despite the quality. An increase in the quality of the product is not likely to produce a seismic shift in the support of either.

If Argos fans are only Argos fans and not CFL fans does it really matter? TFC fans are mostly only TFC fans and not MLS fans. Unless your point is ALL Soccer fans should be taken into account, at which point a football fan must ask why isn't NFL taken into account so that it's a Soccer vs. Football comparison. And then they'll point out that the combined CFL and NFL ratings destroy Soccer week in-week out. And then point to the Super Bowl and Grey Cup ratings compared to the UEFA CL Final and World Cup ratings and give you a smug look.

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As Socceronly alluded to culture has to be taken into account (but i disagree with his assertion that it is for sale). At this point in time the culture of Soccer in this country is just starting to form at a large, commercial scale - it's still a niche sport. It's taking hold and creating an anchor for itself, but it will take a sustained presence (ie. MLS teams, pro teams in general) and multi-generational growth for it to start challenging more established sports. It's going to take alot more than demographics (short term boosts of foreign sports interest) and quality of play to really ingrain the sport into the Canadian consciousness, it's going to have to form a tradition and then will it make itself part of the culture.

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If you think more people are interested in TFC at this point than in the various European leagues then we will clearly just have to agree to disagree.

Depends if you're including the over 50 set who sit around the social clubs playing cards and cheer for/complain about Juventus, Olympiakos and Benfica etc. but are far more interested in their grandkids and probably couldn't name half the players anymore.

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But clearly you are still determined to have some kind of argument. See what you make of these numbers from last season and bear in mind it's from just one of the European leagues and one that doesn't fit into the stereotype you are peddling about semi-interested geriatric audiences in ethnic social clubs (seriously doubt you are talking from experience in that regard):

http://thestar.blogs.com/sportsmedia/2010/05/tfc-22000-in-ontario-3000-in-pacific-up-against-hnic-but-really--madani--golf-pga-quail-hollow-championship-final-ro.html

If you have something interesting to add after that I may respond further but really think this has run its course.

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But clearly you are still determined to have some kind of argument. See what you make of these numbers from last season and bear in mind it's from just one of the European leagues and one that doesn't fit into the stereotype you are peddling about semi-interested geriatric audiences in ethnic social clubs (seriously doubt you are talking from experience in that regard):

http://thestar.blogs.com/sportsmedia/2010/05/tfc-22000-in-ontario-3000-in-pacific-up-against-hnic-but-really--madani--golf-pga-quail-hollow-championship-final-ro.html

If you have something interesting to add after that I may respond further but really think this has run its course.

Good numbers for a Spurs-Bolton game there. TFC match would have been a late night game, but would appear EPL draws similar #'s to a standard Sat. afternoon TFC game ratings wise.

Ok, so there's some slack in support from Euro supporters that TFC can pick up. How many? A few hundred thousand, perhaps more?...Is support for the "home" team (ie. Euro team) so ingrained they don't really care about anything else or is there an opportunity? How much can TFC pick up if they increase the quality? Opens up alot of questions...

I still think the quality argument only addresses short term support problems from recent immigrants. If pro Soccer can gain a foothold and maintain it's presence - something we have yet to see in this country - that will do far more for the sport and cement it's place in the sporting landscape.

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Maybe one thing to bear in mind is that almost 50% of people in Toronto (think this stat is for the city itself rather than the wider GTA but even allowing for that it's still a lot of people) were born overseas. I tend to steer clear of doing the Scottish kind of thing socially (why embrace the citizenship of a country then spend all your time with people from the one that you wanted to leave?) but what I do hear of people's opinions of MLS in that context doesn't tend to be hugely positive at this point although on the bright side it doesn't tend to be outright disdain either. On that sort of basis I think there's still plenty of growth potential especially given there is often a significantly bigger gap in quality between the league people watch overseas than is the case with the SPL. Always get the impression that the Italian community is under-represented amongst the TFC fanbase for example. Part of the importance of drawing in the first generation is that they are the ones who tend to introduce the Canadian born second generation to the sport and attitudes about what is and isn't worth taking seriously get passed on.

On the foothold thing it's maybe worth looking at what happened in some of the original MLS cities in the US. The large initial crowds soon drifted away because a lot of soccer fans born and raised in the United States (and there are more of them out there than many people realize) knew full well that they had a local team but still preferred to watch games from overseas on cable to going to the stadium to support them. That's the "eurosnobs" that always get criticized on Bigsoccer basically. The second wave of MLS teams from RSL/Chivas in 2005 onwards have done a better job of capturing and maintaining people's interest. Part of that is a greater embrace of the traditional culture of the sport but the quality of play has also stepped up noticeably in the last 5 to 10 years so I think people's first impressions of the league are more positive now but there is still plenty of room for further improvement.

Unfortunately I think that relative lack of quality is going to result in a noticeable decline in TFC's fan base in the more expensive parts of the stadium over the next couple of seasons if Aron Winter fails to get the job done. Definitely says something that a large ad for half season ticket packs now features prominently on the homepage for example. There probably still is excess demand at the lower end of the scale in the supporter's section but people would be more comfortable paying the higher range prices to watch a perennial alsoran if the overall entertainment value were higher.

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Good numbers for a Spurs-Bolton game there. TFC match would have been a late night game, but would appear EPL draws similar #'s to a standard Sat. afternoon TFC game ratings wise.

Ok, so there's some slack in support from Euro supporters that TFC can pick up. How many? A few hundred thousand, perhaps more?...Is support for the "home" team (ie. Euro team) so ingrained they don't really care about anything else or is there an opportunity? How much can TFC pick up if they increase the quality? Opens up alot of questions...

I still think the quality argument only addresses short term support problems from recent immigrants. If pro Soccer can gain a foothold and maintain it's presence - something we have yet to see in this country - that will do far more for the sport and cement it's place in the sporting landscape.

Sports is like any other entertainment product in my opinion, there is very little difference between sports and TV shows, movies or whatever anyone else watches for entertainment. The biggest difference between sports and other entertainment products however is the idea of fan support or your supporting interest.

You watch a television show to be entertained, if you like the show but not the current episode, you can change the channel to watch a different show to be entertained. If you don’t like the current season of a particular show, you might stop watching it all together. If you are a fan of a particular team, chances are you are not going to turn off your favourite team, or give up on them to watch a more successful team. People do this, but they are generally looked down upon by other sports fans for being a bandwagoner.

Think of it this way, how many ‘hockey fans’ do you know compared to Toronto Maple Leafs fans or Montreal Canadiens fans? Most fans of sports in my opinion tend to be fans of teams rather than sports. There are exceptions, but how many hockey fans do you know that keep up with hockey at many levels and is a fan of the sport? My opinion is most “hockey fans” are NHL club fans, and this is the area where soccer lags behind for TV viewership in this country

There is a great soccer culture in Canada currently but the fans are fragmented in foreign teams they support. When you factor in that stable Canadian club soccer is in its infancy, there isn’t much of history or background culture built up to get the casual fan interested in MLS clubs. This will come in time and having TSN take MLS broadcasts will help, but we also need a face of the sport in this country to move forward. If you ask the casual sports fan who is the best Canadian player, most would have a hard time naming any players. Having a face of the team, a player in an elite league doing well would also help stir up interest in the sport at home. Who knows when this will happen, but when it the popularity of club soccer as a television product will rise.

All one needs to do is look at Milos Raonic and the amount of interest he has sparked in tennis recently in the media in Canada. If he becomes the world number one, or even top five, I wouldn’t be surprised to see tennis out growing soccer on TV in Canada.

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The Globe and Mail has another story with soccer overtaking hockey as its theme:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/soccer/soccer-finally-comes-of-age-on-canadas-sports-landscape/article1931171/page1/

...The CSA will not release its 2010 registration figures until its annual general meeting in May, and says its 2009 figures are incomplete. But according to the 2008 registration figures, there were 740,073 youth players in Canada, and 873,032 players at all levels. “It will be over one million in the next two years,” Galet said, matter-of-factly.

By comparison, Hockey Canada estimates there will be a 1-per-cent drop in registration this season from 577,077 last season, and the organization has projections showing the number could be down to under 375,000 within 10 years. This is expected to be the second consecutive season in which hockey registration in Canada falls, from its peak of 584,679 in 2008-09.

We are not far off, in other words, from a time where as many girls and women are playing soccer in Canada as there are registered hockey players – men and women.

But you know all this, right? You just assume that, as Galet says: “When new Canadians come to Canada they look for two things: their nearest place of worship – their nearest mosque or church – and their local soccer club.”

You know hockey is ungodly expensive if it is part of your culture, let alone if you didn’t grow up with it. You know soccer has a foothold – but to what end?...

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The Globe and Mail has another story with soccer overtaking hockey as its theme:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/soccer/soccer-finally-comes-of-age-on-canadas-sports-landscape/article1931171/page1/

...The CSA will not release its 2010 registration figures until its annual general meeting in May, and says its 2009 figures are incomplete. But according to the 2008 registration figures, there were 740,073 youth players in Canada, and 873,032 players at all levels. “It will be over one million in the next two years,” Galet said, matter-of-factly.

By comparison, Hockey Canada estimates there will be a 1-per-cent drop in registration this season from 577,077 last season, and the organization has projections showing the number could be down to under 375,000 within 10 years. This is expected to be the second consecutive season in which hockey registration in Canada falls, from its peak of 584,679 in 2008-09.

We are not far off, in other words, from a time where as many girls and women are playing soccer in Canada as there are registered hockey players – men and women.

But you know all this, right? You just assume that, as Galet says: “When new Canadians come to Canada they look for two things: their nearest place of worship – their nearest mosque or church – and their local soccer club.”

You know hockey is ungodly expensive if it is part of your culture, let alone if you didn’t grow up with it. You know soccer has a foothold – but to what end?...

I was not impressed by the one million comment ... this from the IMG folks who have failed to get the valuation of CSA propertys up to reasonalble valuation. The assertion that 2 million in revenue from sponsorship is coming is a crock .. there is a very very long way for the IMG folks to go to get any creditabilty marking CSA national men's teams.... and they have not shown they know diddle squat about selling the women's game in Canada.

A very sub par corporate effort by IMG. Donald would say... Your fired.

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Perhaps worth pondering then what more might be achieved if the CSA were actually competently run? With the Women's World Cup in 2015 and three MLS teams from 2012 onwards positive things can definitely continue to happen even if the much ballyhooed CSA reforms do not make much difference to the inner workings of the national association. The missing ingredients at the moment are getting the CMNT to more make headway against the top CONCACAF teams again and also getting the fanbases of the three MLS teams to fully embrace the national team as their own so that national team home games always have large passionate crowds supporting the home team in future. If the CSA's old boys network that leads to coaching hirings like Mitchell and Hart gets dismantled to a certain extent when the reform package implementation is completed in 2015 maybe good things will start to happen in that context by the time the 2018 qualification cycle rolls around.

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The missing ingredients at the moment are getting the CMNT to more make headway against the top CONCACAF teams again and also getting the fanbases of the three MLS teams to fully embrace the national team as their own so that national team home games always have large passionate crowds supporting the home team in future.

True on the first point.

Second would help, but I really dont think it should be up to the clubs to push the national games hard, they shouldnt have to do that in the first place, it's the CSA's job.

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True on the first point.

Second would help, but I really dont think it should be up to the clubs to push the national games hard, they shouldnt have to do that in the first place, it's the CSA's job.

It's not their job but they could benefit from it. Potential cross marketing opportunities can arise like having a guy from one of the clubs on national team's roster.

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The Globe and Mail has another story with soccer overtaking hockey as its theme:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/soccer/soccer-finally-comes-of-age-on-canadas-sports-landscape/article1931171/page1/

By comparison, Hockey Canada estimates there will be a 1-per-cent drop in registration this season from 577,077 last season, and the organization has projections showing the number could be down to under 375,000 within 10 years. This is expected to be the second consecutive season in which hockey registration in Canada falls, from its peak of 584,679 in 2008-09.

You know hockey is ungodly expensive if it is part of your culture, let alone if you didn’t grow up with it. You know soccer has a foothold – but to what end?...

Hockey's registration drop is entirely within OHF; all other provincial associations show increases. http://www.hockeycanada.ca/index.php/ci_id/23952/la_id/1.htm

Hockey is only ungodly expensive if you're in the rep level of play. On an hourly basis, and especially at entry level, it's pretty cost-effective compared to soccer. Consider my son:

Hockey house league: $575. For that he'll play 2h a week for 24 weeks. That's $12 a session.

Soccer house league: $190. For that he'll play 1h a week for 15 weeks. That's $12.67 a session.

As far as equipment goes, hockey requires a helmet and cage ($50), remainder of gear ($100 for a kit at Canadian Tire), a stick ($15 for a reasonable wooden one) and skates (which I've found the best deal is used - even then I get higher end stuff for $80). The helmet, stick and gear kit is good for 2-3 years, so amortize it and add it all up, and it's an investment of around $150 per year, or an additional $3.13 a session.

Soccer equipment - you probably only have to spend $40 on basic boots to start, but when you've only got 15 sessions, that's still another $2.67 a session. So the difference is less than a buck per session when starting hockey versus soccer. Soccer being the more costly one.

Ungodly expensive? At entry, not so much.

That said, I do kinda scratch my head when I see 6 year olds with composite sticks.

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You maybe need to have tried to extract registration money from recent immigrants from countries in the Middle East, Balkans and Latin America to understand the difference in mentality on what is and isn't a lot of money. Once the full season number starts to move into three figures you can usually pretty much forget about anyone other than those born and raised in Canada and better off western countries like the UK in my experience. The good thing about soccer and one of the major reasons for the registration boom is that it is usually possible to find ways to avoid that ($190 for 12 1 hour house league games is a complete rip off, in my opinion) although in the winter months it might mean playing futsal on a hardwood floor rather than playing at a fieldturf bubble sort of facility.

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