Is a 2nd Division Sustainable?

[ted]

A couple of things to respond to after a busy weekend AFK.

Quite the contrary. I think we should have clubs in all three cities. A Canadian league team running on a million-to-$1.5-million player personnel budget can compete with MLS any day.

OK, so you are advocating a league in competition with the MLS in the top three Canadian markets at the highest level of play and management possible. Technically that would be a D2 league. So long as MLS is designated as a D1 under FIFA rules the highest a competing league could be is D2.

Technicalities aside, the rest of your points regarding the need for top quality - heck, even simply competent - management are all well made. I can see that a sustainable D2 that you call whatever you like ("Canada's Best Soccer League", "Canadian Premier League", etc) might be possible. I cannot conceive of a way to be successful competing with MLS. However, with a working relationship with MLS and the continuation of the Voyageurs Cup I could see this working if the money and management were available.

Sadly this puts us back to where we were. I do not believe that sufficient numbers of suitable investors are available. Clearly you do and yes, I concede you may have knowledge that you cannot share but that is your burden to bear and cannot have any effect on opinions based on verifiable information. I would be happy to see myself proved wrong on this and will enjoy your "I told you so" when 6-12 wealthy investors put up $10million+ per team to back a plan that includes significant investment in infrastructure.

Proof positive; the CFL is a popular league that is thriving, profitable, and looking to expand inside Canada beyond Ottawa.

This is no proof. The CFL succeeds because the NFL does not operate in Canada. If there were NFL teams in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal I believe the CFL would cease to exist.

Where the CFL does provide a good example is the understandings and agreements they have with the NFL that has included cash payments from the NFL to the CFL. If a Canadian D2 league had the same sort of arrangements and understandings with MLS, or at least the three Cdn teams, then we might see success. Without this co-operation I fear going head-to-head with the MLS would be Quixotic.

[brettinhalifax]

I get the feeling that most people here are almost in agreement so I'd like to ask jloome, ted, Richard and others if they agree with the following statement...

"A Canadian USL1/NASL level league is possible if it were done properly"

By properly I mean adequate financial investment, appropriate infrastructure, salaries and promotion.

[paul-collins]

Here's another question:

Is it reasonable to expect these investors to provide the appropriate SSS? I know it's bad politics to have governments build sporting infrastructure for private owners, but it seems to me that this is something of a problem for most teams. (How long did it take for the Senators to pay for their MTO mandated overpass?)

[Richard]

I get the feeling that most people here are almost in agreement so I'd like to ask jloome, ted, Richard and others if they agree with the following statement...

"A Canadian USL1/NASL level league is possible if it were done properly"

By properly I mean adequate financial investment, appropriate infrastructure, salaries and promotion.

Anything is possible if you throw enough money at it.

[ted]

I get the feeling that most people here are almost in agreement so I'd like to ask jloome, ted, Richard and others if they agree with the following statement...

"A Canadian USL1/NASL level league is possible if it were done properly"

By properly I mean adequate financial investment, appropriate infrastructure, salaries and promotion.

Of course I say yes. I have been for years and I never thought that either Richard or jloome or most anyone would disagree with the general premise.

Where it breaks down is how much money and from where.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

...and in the absence of a concrete explanation of where the money would come from there is really no point perpetually day dreaming about this given three teams representing the three largest metropolitan areas with over 2,000,000 people will soon be in MLS and given there will soon be between one and three more teams in the NASL (assuming it gets sanctioning this weekend and all goes well after that) in the four next largest markets after that with populations of greater than 750,000 (the normal cut-off point for D2 at least in USSF sanctioning requirement terms).

[Drew Shaw]

Hey Ted. Hope you're well.

A continental D2 is not sustainable, in the sense of being stable and prosperous, as the USL track record and "musical franchise" merry-go-round of the last 20 years demonstrates. It needs to have geographical divisions - probably four (West, Centre, NE, SE) to have long-term stability, and something more than the "barely hanging on" existence it currently has - especially as the top clubs keep moving to MLS. It would need about 40 teams to make this possible.

There are at least 60 population centres in North America that have 500+ people, and don't have an MLS team. With 3 x MLS teams, the idea of a Canadian league is not going to happen. That being the case, the USL pyramid is something Canada needs to use.

None of that includes Victoria. However, there's more to it than mere population stats. Vic Highlanders are doing the right things. What is needed now is for the same sort of ambition in Calgary, Edmonton, Sacramento, San Diego, Los Vegas, and Phoenix. From that, a regionalised division of the NASL could be formed, with Victoria in it. Honolulu, Bakersfield, Fresno, and Boise are the other places that have the population to support a semi-pro team with crowds of 2-5000 people.

The problem is that it's hard to grow a league from scratch if the first clubs have to travel across the entire continent; and if you have to form, say, 40 clubs to get the regional divisions to all start up. Cheers, and see you at Bear Mountain this year.

[jloome]

...and in the absence of a concrete explanation of where the money would come from there is really no point perpetually day dreaming about this given three teams representing the three largest metropolitan areas with over 2,000,000 people will soon be in MLS and given there will soon be between one and three more teams in the NASL (assuming it gets sanctioning this weekend and all goes well after that) in the four next largest markets after that with populations of greater than 750,000 (the normal cut-off point for D2 at least in USSF sanctioning requirement terms).

Of course! Everyone should stop talking about the possibility because you don't think it will happen!

Why didn't I see that indefatigable logic before now?

Seriously, why would you advocate giving up on an idea that everyone agrees is possible, just because they disagree on whether the funding is possible.

Not knowing where the money will come from doesn't invalidate the core agreement by most members that it can happen.

[Richard]

Money is the core issue, without an adequate supply it just is not going to happen. It doesn't even have to make a profit, just have adequate capitalisation and cashflow to sustain it. Find a solution to the money issue and suddenly people will start taking the idea seriously. Otherwise it is nothing but a pipedream.

[jloome]

Money is the core issue, without an adequate supply it just is not going to happen. It doesn't even have to make a profit, just have adequate capitalisation and cashflow to sustain it. Find a solution to the money issue and suddenly people will start taking the idea seriously. Otherwise it is nothing but a pipedream.

If every person who had an idea started planning to complete it after they got the money, very little that is enterprising in this world would ever get done. Every good idea, anywhere, started as a pipe dream.

[Richard]

And remained a pipedream without the money. For many startups, if they can present a viable and convincing business plan to back their pipedream, financing can be secured and if it is a really good idea people will be lining up to invest. I have not seen any signs of any of these factors for the kind of league people here have been dreaming of. If you can demonstrate any of these requirements being met then the situation changes but so far all I have read and heard from people in the soccer business and those who have put up money for MSL, USL and NASL ventures is that they do not believe a Canadian national, professional D2 league is sustainable. I bow to their better judgement. This doesn't mean I don't support the idea in principle, I am just skeptical about its viability in the foreseeable future without some radical change in the situation.

The CSA has supposedly struck a committee to explore the prospects of a Canadian league again. I await their conclusions with interest but I don't believe they have the required magic wand. Besides, right now the CSA has other bigger problems on its hands.

[jloome]

all I have read and heard from people in the soccer business and those who have put up money for MSL, USL and NASL ventures is that they do not believe a Canadian national, professional D2 league is sustainable.

I can't say I've heard anyone even discuss it. Where, pray tell, did this happen?

Oh and why do you assume those in USL and NASL have "superior judgment"? With respect to how their clubs and leagues have done so far in most markets, I'd say just about anything but.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

People have been attempting to set up pro leagues in a Canadian context since the early 1960s. There is no new concept or insight involved in any of this just the same old process of would be messiahs selling snake oil to carve out a future leadership role for themselves with nothing concrete to back it up. Meanwhile people like Tom Fath are getting on with the job of building a pro franchise as best they can in a North American context, which may not provide an entertainment product that meets everybody's aspirations but is still a lot better than having the AMSL as the highest level of competition. If enough people from coast to coast do that sort of thing maybe one day there will be a tipping point where a critical mass is reached that makes a D2 level national league not only viable but the better way to go. Until then concrete action is better than day dreaming even if it falls short of what we would prefer in an ideal world scenario.

[jloome]

People have been attempting to set up pro leagues in a Canadian context since the early 1960s. There is no new concept or insight involved in any of this just the same old process of would be messiahs selling snake oil to carve out a future leadership role for themselves with nothing concrete to back it up. Meanwhile people like Tom Fath are getting on with the job of building a pro franchise as best they can in a North American context, which may not provide an entertainment product that meets everybody's aspirations but is still a lot better than having the AMSL as the highest level of competition. If enough people from coast to coast do that sort of thing maybe one day there will be a tipping point where a critical mass is reached that makes a D2 level national league not only viable but the better way to go. Until then concrete action is better than day dreaming even if it falls short of what we would prefer in an ideal world scenario.

If you think there's some secret cabal of wannabe front office people pushing this, you're sorely deluding yourself.

And if you think the front office of the average NASL/USL club is ANY different from those snakeoil salesmen you mention, you simply display that you have no relevant knowledge of the situation.

[Richard]

But those 'snake oil salesmen' in the NASL/USL front offices did not elect to set up a Canadian domestic league which I think is the point he was making.

[Redcoatsforever]

Consider the central question of this thread: "Is a 2nd division sustainable?"

In terms of the NASL; well, we're about to find out, aren't we?

In terms of an all-Canadian nation-wide second division; No. There are no investors, no league, no clubs interested in setting it up. Could a Canadian D2 league be sustainable? Maybe, but as of yet, it is not. I think "pipedreams" may be a little harsh for describing the ideas as it sounds pejorative, but really, the ideas being floated are mere fantasy without money and an actual set of clubs to back them up.

I would love to see a Canadian second division. Be that as it may, there's no concrete proof that one is either in the works, or that it would stand the test of time if it got off the ground. I won't pretend to know more about potential investors than jloome because well, I don't. I won't pretend to know more than Bring Back The Blizzard either, because he seems to have a lot of historic proof on his side, and he doesn't come across as someone who simply hates the idea. (yes, I know I accused him of hating the concept of a Canadian league, I was just irritated, and I'm sorry I ever questioned his loyalty or passion for the Canadian game)

My main point regarding an all Canadian D2 league is this: It is a really wonderful idea, in a perfect world we would have one, I hope we get one. However, idealized versions of any league cannot come before the existence of the league itself.

[jloome]

However, idealized versions of any league cannot come before the existence of the league itself.

Translation: We should allow the league to develop, then support it?

RCF, if the public doesn't make it clear what it wants, it makes it somewhat hard for potential investors to get the point that its worth pursuing. Discussing an ideal is EXACTLY what we need to be doing. We need to be getting the message out there that as football fans we'll pay to go see a Canadian league of that quality.

And again, it's worth noting that I"m not talking about spending huge amounts more money than the NASL, just doing it with more foresight than to basically have two investors propping up the league.

This has become a cross-purposes argument. I'm trying to point out that the conditions are ripe to do it. Other people are arguing that they aren't doing it, so conditions aren't ripe. That's simply not logical. Not recognizing a market does not mean it is not there.

And, in the circumstance like this, where it's not being exploited, the LAST thing the consumer should do is stop talking about it.

[Richard]

"Not recognizing a market does not mean it is not there."

Depends who is doing the recognising, or not. If potential investors are not perceiving a market and a viable business opportunity it really is immaterial what you or I think or want.

[jloome]

"Not recognizing a market does not mean it is not there."

Depends who is doing the recognising, or not. If potential investors are not perceiving a market and a viable business opportunity it really is immaterial what you or I think or want.

The customer base's opinion is irrelevant? Again, where's the logic there? How do you let the market know something is desired if it isn't discussed? How can talking LESS lead to them "perceiving a market and a viable business opportunity." That doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

The last time USL came in to Edmonton, it did so because over 4,000 people signed a local petition, before there was any actual investor interest.

That investor then IGNORED that petition completely as part of their boneheaded, second-rate attempt at running a club.

[Redcoatsforever]

The customer base's opinion is irrelevant? Again, where's the logic there? How do you let the market know something is desired if it isn't discussed? How can talking LESS lead to them "perceiving a market and a viable business opportunity." That doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

The last time USL came in to Edmonton, it did so because over 4,000 people signed a local petition, before there was any actual investor interest.

That investor then IGNORED that petition completely as part of their boneheaded, second-rate attempt at running a club.

Actually, I could really get behind that when you put it that way (not the boneheaded bit) I mean, we have plenty of examples readily available:

The Sons of Ben in Philadelphia managed to build interest from investors and MLS for a team in their city, and they were working with a league that has few available places left for expansion. I imagine if we could get something like this happening in like a dozen Canadian urban centres, trying to get clubs made, it could cause a league to form.

[Blue and White Army]

D2 should probably be regionalized. Have continent-wide playoffs.

[Lord Bob]

D2 should probably be regionalized. Have continent-wide playoffs.

The problem with regionalized D2 is that we'll never find enough major markets to keep the level of play we're used to. People fret about getting ten good D2 markets in all of Canada. Imagine trying to find ten good D2 markets in, say, Cascadia?

Of course travel costs would be cheaper, but that only buys you so much. If you can only get 1,500 fans a night in Billings, Montana as opposed to 3,500 fans a night, that's going to hit your quality of play. Now, maybe that's worth it (particularly if the MLS reserve division takes off and gives the "tweeners" jobs) but bear it in mind.

[Blue and White Army]

At least have two regions: east and west. No more Vancouver-to-Puerto-Rico-in-the-second-division nonsense.

[jloome]

At least have two regions: east and west. No more Vancouver-to-Puerto-Rico-in-the-second-division nonsense.

It's the best approach to start with; eliminate Winnipeg as a market, because for your geographical extremes it's always the longest trip. Then regionalize around five or six teams in each division, play two local-loop games for each one against other divisions, then schedule travel around two or three away games at a time, to minimize air costs.

EDIT: OH, and to the naysayers from earlier in the thread who seemed to have realized negativity for its own sake is pointless, I'd also point out that the title of this thread uses the word "sustainable." That presumes something has already started, as you can't sustain something that isn't running.

So the question, relative to this thread, of upfront funding is absolutely moot. This thread is based around the presumption a league already exists, and then asks whether it's "sustainable," which to me is clearly a question of market and costs, particularly travel.

[paul-collins]

You could just as easily argue that Victoria is the longest travel, so they should be eliminated. :/ You can't have a moratorium on teams in the geographic centre of Canada and call it a national division.