Is a 2nd Division Sustainable?

[jloome]

They'd have to leave and join it, however then you'd end up with Scotland or Greece with 2-3 good sides stomping all over a crappy, 3rd-rate league.

Again, MLS player budgets are not high. They're just over half of the CFL's cap.

It's not unrealistic, based on turnouts in excess of 3,500 per game, to budget for a $1.5 million payroll in a Canadian first divisions. And USL clubs with half that budget have regularly pushed MLS clubs.

I'd like to see a Canadian first division Toronto play TFC in a national cup game. Why not? There are 5 million people in the Toronto area and as TO, Seattle and Philly have all shown, the market is there if the quality is there.

Again, no offense to Marc or Richard, but almost everything that was ever difficult to accomplish started with a few people refusing to take the attitude that it can't be done just because they haven't seen the will in the past.

[Richard]

^ Sure, but where have those people been for the past 20 years and what has changed to give you hope that they will be there anytime soon? As I posted elsewhere, there has been absolutely nothing stopping one or more likeminded entrepeneur types with money behind them from putting together a proposal with a workable business plan and applying to the CSA for sanctioning of a national domestic Canadian league - call it D1 or D2, whatever you wish. Lamar Hunt et al did it in the USA with MLS so we know it can be done. I just haven't seen any sign of it happening here. All those with the money to invest in D1 or D2 clubs have so far opted for the USL/NASL/MLS route rather than trying to create a new domestic league from scratch in Canada. Don't misunderstand me, I'd love to see a thriving top level domestic league with teams from Newfoundland to Victoria, but I won't hold my breath.

[jloome]

Well, I used your quote to try and start a whole different discussion that examined some of the questions I asked. However, since no one seems interested in answering these questions....

I have a question for you because I am confused. You keep talking about a D1 league for Canada yet I get the impression you are not including the three Canadian MLS teams in your plans. Is this the case? Are you really suggesting we have a D1 league without Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal?

Quite the contrary. I think we should have clubs in all three cities. A Canadian league team running on a million-to-$1.5-million player personnel budget can compete with MLS any day.

[jloome]

^ Sure, but where have those people been for the past 20 years and what has changed to give you hope that they will be there anytime soon? As I posted elsewhere, there has been absolutely nothing stopping one or more likeminded entrepeneur types with money behind them from putting together a proposal with a workable business plan and applying to the CSA for sanctioning of a national domestic Canadian league - call it D1 or D2, whatever you wish. Lamar Hunt et al did it in the USA with MLS so we know it can be done. I just haven't seen any sign of it happening here. All those with the money to invest in D1 or D2 clubs have so far opted for the USL/NASL/MLS route rather than trying to create a new domestic league from scratch in Canada. Don't misunderstand me, I'd love to see a thriving top level domestic league with teams from Newfoundland to Victoria, but I won't hold my breath.

Fair point. I guess my response would be that I've seen three clubs, successively, adapt a more professional approach to team and fan development -- in Toronto, Seattle and Philadelphia -- than we've seen to this point.

I believe the distinctly improved fan buy-in is evidence that there is a hardcore base of professional fan out there, and having been involved with that fan base heavily, daily, I've concluded they're almost all first-, second- and third-generation Canadians with family teams in leagues overseas, a natural product of our multicultural nation.

If I recognize that fanbase exists, then someone who can profit from it will, too. It's the usual logical progression of economic interest, and the approaches in those cities have made them profits, immediately.

Now, the point has to be made that regardless of how much you love your USL team, those of us who've watched both leagues regularly can tell you that while MLS isn't the best footie, it's still a darn sight more enjoyable than lower division football.

That's merely a reflection of its higher budgets, however. There are plenty of other nations with smaller populations who manage to have fairly good pro leagues, and our population is largely made up of their former inhabitants! Just go on the RPB or U-sector boards sometime and witness the veritable UN of footie influences.

The question then becomes whether it can make money in Canada, and to me, that's a question of understanding what works: good atmosphere, decent football, good fan support and STRONG promotion. Travel is a big impediment in Canada, but with as many sports and footy channels as we have now that are Canadian-owned, coverage shouldn't be. And the travel issue can be minimized through regionalization.

So the question becomes whether the money will step forward. I would suggest that the longer MLS's prize franchises show it can be done, the more likely someone in our own country will explore a Canadian league.

Why Canadian-only? Simply because the potential investors will realize at some point that the Canadian multicultural system does not engender the same degree of paternalism as the melting pot system. I believe there are simply more hardcore euro footie fans here, per capita, than in the U.S., and that our ties to other secondary and tertiary sports such as NCAA and nascar, PBA etc aren't as strong.

Just look at past leagues: in every iteration, whether NASL, A-League or USL, the Canadian teams have been among the strongest performers at the gate. In fact, Canadian clubs have often survived multiple league failures.

Consider that when Calgary and Edmonton were in the NASL, they were both cities of less than 700,000 people. And both consistently drew 10,000 per game. Teams like Metro Croatia and the Manic easily drew over that. So we have a history of success at the gate.

What we haven't ever seen is competent league management. But to some extent, the three best MLS clubs and two best USL clubs have provided a serious blueprint, a leg up.

Doing it requires more money than current D2 investors have been willing to spend. But that doesn't mean that the axiom "you have to spend money to make money" doesn't apply. And I can tell you, definitively, that some of these teams are managed so badly I honestly have wondered whether they were "dry holer" scams -- like in the movie producers, losing so much money deliberately you could hide any ill.

So much of our current perception of a possible Canadian league is based on the faulty premise that it's public acceptance that's the issue. It isn't. It's competent management. Has this incompetence scared off investors? No doubt. It's why the fate of the NASL is of particular concern. But given that it follows the predictable patterns I've discussed, I don't hold out much hope.

And on that front, we also have to consider that the USSF has made it clear it will hold to this 75/25 split, which means any league of 12 or fewer teams has at most three Canadian participants. That's not much.

Anyway, I think it can be done. Will the opportunity be recognized? Perhaps not. But I tend to believe these kinds of cultural shifts tend to gain steam towards the finish line, and MLS interest has been awfully good.

[Redcoatsforever]

A Canadian D1, sanctioned as such by the CSA, does not have to cost a fortune more than D2 USSF. But it could at least firm up public confidence in the idea.

Proof positive; the CFL is a popular league that is thriving, profitable, and looking to expand inside Canada beyond Ottawa. Compare the finances of the CFL and the NFL.

The big resurgency windfall for CFL has been a combination of TSN and marketing itself as "Canada's league". I would suggest the book "Bigger Balls" by Jeff Giles. He was president of the CFL just after their horrible American Expansion collapse, arguably, the guy saved the league, and is undisputably proud to be Canadian. Granted, it's football, but a fair chunk of the lessons of the book can be applied to soccer or any other sport.

[Richard]

Assuming the NASL succeeds and we achieve the maximum of 3 clubs in a 12 team league, plus our 3 MLS clubs... that six D1/D2 teams - probably the most we could sustain profitably at that level anyway, any other attempts would be third rate and would probably need to be regional to make it.

[Richard]

Proof positive; the CFL is a popular league that is thriving, profitable, and looking to expand inside Canada beyond Ottawa. Compare the finances of the CFL and the NFL.

The big resurgency windfall for CFL has been a combination of TSN and marketing itself as "Canada's league". I would suggest the book "Bigger Balls" by Jeff Giles. He was president of the CFL just after their horrible American Expansion collapse, arguably, the guy saved the league, and is undisputably proud to be Canadian. Granted, it's football, but a fair chunk of the lessons of the book can be applied to soccer or any other sport.

The CFL is not a brand new league trying to get started in competition with three existing NFL teams in the three biggest Canadian cities plus up to three next level down joint Canada-USA division football teams in three other major Canadian markets.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

If Canadian branding were enough to ensure success the Canadian Baseball league, which talked about aiming for AAA quality alongside the Blue Jays and is therefore much more comparable to launching a D2 operation in a soccer context than the CFL where there is no direct competition from the NFL, wouldn't have folded midway through its first season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Baseball_League

http://thetyee.ca/News/2004/04/05/Empty_Field_of_Dreams/

From what I've heard the team in London, Ont. had a paid attendance of about 50 by the time the plug was finally pulled despite all the usual propaganda in the Free Press sports section about London being a hotbed of baseball interest and history. Perhaps worth noting that when the main investor in the CBL, Jeff Mallett, subsequently became involved in soccer he pursued part ownership of the Whitecaps in an MLS context rather than trying the fledgling national league thing again.

I resent having to add the following disclaimer but due to the limited intelligence of some of the posters on here, who are likely to start spewing bile at this point about people being "anti-Canadian", it is necessary to point out that I take no pleasure in the fact that a D2 Canadian league would almost certainly fail as spectacularly as the CBL did right now and would greatly prefer a situation where it would be a huge success but a big part of being a rational adult is dealing with the world as it actually is instead of day dreaming about stuff that is unlikely to happen any time soon based on visceral level emotions rather than logical thought.

[jloome]

Anyone who compares professional baseball to professional soccer and thinks there's a business equivalency is wrong.

End of story.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

So much for being on ignore. Baseball works at the equivalent of D1 level (in Toronto at least) but Canadian branding by itself wasn't enough to make it work at a D2 sort level in a standalone national league context despite a national broadcasting deal with The Score and significant investment by Jeff Mallett. Would have thought the potential parallel to soccer is obvious and much more relevant than the CFL.

[Macksam]

Assuming the NASL succeeds and we achieve the maximum of 3 clubs in a 12 team league, plus our 3 MLS clubs... that six D1/D2 teams - probably the most we could sustain profitably at that level anyway, any other attempts would be third rate and would probably need to be regional to make it.

I take issue with your blind statements.

Show me the research you have done to validate this notion of only 6 teams being profitable at that level.

With 3 MLS teams, the popularity of the sport will grow in other parts of Canada.

[Richard]

You did see and grasp the word probably in my post I trust? This makes it an expressed opinion not a statement of fact. On the other hand your use of will in "With 3 MLS teams, the popularity of the sport will grow in other parts of Canada." makes it a statement of fact. You may be right, or you may be wrong but there is no way you can support that statement of fact other than with probabilities.

[Macksam]

You did see and grasp the word probably in my post I trust? This makes it an expressed opinion not a statement of fact. On the other hand your use of will in "With 3 MLS teams, the popularity of the sport will grow in other parts of Canada." makes it a statement of fact. You may be right, or you may be wrong but there is no way you can support that statement of fact other than with probabilities.

Sure. I could write you a PHD level thesis about why it will happen though.

[Richard]

Thank you for conceding my point. There is a vast difference between expressing an opinion and asserting a fact. Your thesis would probably all be based on probabilities however. Nobody can foresee the future, we can only extrapolate and guess.

[Redcoatsforever]

The CFL is not a brand new league trying to get started in competition with three existing NFL teams in the three biggest Canadian cities plus up to three next level down joint Canada-USA division football teams in three other major Canadian markets.

Fair point, but dammit, Giles' book inspired me. I'd love to see the Rugby Canada Super League return as a success, too. A man can dream.

...Canadian branding by itself wasn't enough to make it work at a D2 sort level in a standalone national league context despite a national broadcasting deal with The Score and significant investment by Jeff Mallett. Would have thought the potential parallel to soccer is obvious and much more relevant than the CFL.

I agree that the comparison is valid, and due to a lack of history for a soccer league as with the CFL, it would probably be somewhat -I won't concede on "much"- more relevant. At the same time, I think it would take some serious research and marketing accumen, as well as major money backing. Like, Lamar Hunt was to MLS as whomever would be to Canada D1. Even then, the lack of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver would make it pretty difficult.

Really, I think the big stepping stone is to build up a third division, with multiple regional leagues either under the CSL's or some other banner. Something soccer fans would identify with, but as far as a Canadian league structure goes, while I would still readily support any national league venture, and am dedicated to the concept of a fully Canadian top tier at some point, I must say I've begun to think that it may be better to err on the side of caution, starting smaller.

Aim for a CHL/CIS-type system rather than a CFL out of the gate.

[SthMelbRed]

Anyone who compares professional baseball to professional soccer and thinks there's a business equivalency is wrong.

End of story.

I've always got the sense from reading your posts on this board that you're an arrogant know-it-all. This post, however, trumps most of what you've posted before. I wonder how your employer feels about you coming on a fan message board and embarassing them with your behaviour.

[jloome]

I've always got the sense from reading your posts on this board that you're an arrogant know-it-all. This post, however, trumps most of what you've posted before. I wonder how your employer feels about you coming on a fan message board and embarassing them with your behaviour.

And I should give a sweet damn about your opinion of me, why, exactly? We've been feuding online for weeks, and I'm just giving back nastier than I'm getting.

Here's a suggestion, if you're so fond of online civility: mind your own business.

Oh, and thanks for contributing to the actual discussion.

[Shootmaster_44]

If Canadian branding were enough to ensure success the Canadian Baseball league, which talked about aiming for AAA quality alongside the Blue Jays and is therefore much more comparable to launching a D2 operation in a soccer context than the CFL where there is no direct competition from the NFL, wouldn't have folded midway through its first season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Baseball_League

http://thetyee.ca/News/2004/04/05/Empty_Field_of_Dreams/

From what I've heard the team in London, Ont. had a paid attendance of about 50 by the time the plug was finally pulled despite all the usual propaganda in the Free Press sports section about London being a hotbed of baseball interest and history. Perhaps worth noting that when the main investor in the CBL, Jeff Mallett, subsequently became involved in soccer he pursued part ownership of the Whitecaps in an MLS context rather than trying the fledgling national league thing again.

I resent having to add the following disclaimer but due to the limited intelligence of some of the posters on here, who are likely to start spewing bile at this point about people being "anti-Canadian", it is necessary to point out that I take no pleasure in the fact that a D2 Canadian league would almost certainly fail as spectacularly as the CBL did right now and would greatly prefer a situation where it would be a huge success but a big part of being a rational adult is dealing with the world as it actually is instead of day dreaming about stuff that is unlikely to happen any time soon based on visceral level emotions rather than logical thought.

The CBL is a bad example. I actually followed the Saskatoon Legends and attended their games. Nobody had any idea that the team existed. Promotion was non-existent, which accounted for the rotten attendance. Plus central, league ownership leagues largely don't work. Essentially, the league decides on which cities to put teams in assuming they would work and then markets based on their home market. Thus, what works in one city doesn't in another.

A better example would be the National Basketball League that ran in Canada during the summers of 1993 and 1994. The teams were all owned individually and thus could promote in their local markets as they saw fit. Many of the teams drew well, in fact it wasn't unusual for the Saskatoon Slam to draw 5-6,000 per game and actually sold out Saskatchewan Place for the NBL Finals. The league knew that their place in the basketball world was not to compete with the NBA, but rather to provide a place for players to showcase their skills and find "winter" basketball contracts.

What killed the league was travel costs. Teams were spread out from Sydney, Nova Scotia to Victoria, BC (1994 saw the Canadian national team participate in the league and they were based in Victoria then) and since the schedule was national in scope teams would do a road trip that would see Halifax or Cape Breton fly to Winnipeg and play a game, have a few days off and head to Saskatoon for a game and then to Edmonton and then return to Nova Scotia. The problem was that since there weren't regional pods of teams, it required all teams to fly all over Canada. The 1993 season had a teams in Sydney, Halifax, Montreal (who folded a month into the season), Hamilton (moved to Edmonton for the playoffs), Winnipeg and Saskatoon (and a couple NCAA all-star teams made trips through the league). The 1994 season saw Sydney, Halifax, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Calgary, Edmonton and the Canadian National Team.

What would happen with a Canadian Division 2 soccer league would be the same thing that happened to the NBL. You will have teams that are popular (like Saskatoon and Winnipeg were in the NBL), but you will also have teams that are drawing less than stellar crowds (like Montreal and Hamilton were in the NBL). What will happen is that either the richer teams will prop up the poorer teams for a few years and collapse under this weight or you will have nice regional pods for the first year to cut on travel and half the pods will die due to poor crowds and then you will be stuck with a national league that sees Victoria travel to St. John's every few weeks.

It could be sustainable but only if it starts slowly and builds up. Essentially what I mean is do what the CSL is doing, except in a regional format. There needs to be a Prairies Division and a Maritimes Division. Add in the PCSL (I believe that is the big BC based league) teams and begin to invest in them. Once you build support for these teams, especially the Prairies and Maritimes teams then you can begin to think about moving to a bigger salary structure.

But baby steps are needed I think, especially in Saskatchewan. Soccer is played by tons of kids, but that doesn't seem to translate into support for high level clubs. The U of S and U of R men's and women's teams at times draw under 100 people (and this is with students getting in free). The Accelerators could have become a viable product and should have been well supported. But between the league failing to promote the team well and the disinterest of the soccer community, they have folded. What seems to sustain the soccer clubs in Canada initially are the ethnic communities who grew up in soccer mad countries. Until recently, Saskatchewan seemed to lack large ethnic communities who were ardent soccer fans. So you start small and build up.

In the interm until these regional leagues are strong enough to become a national Division 2 league, teams like FC Edmonton would have to stay in the NASL. Once the Canadian leagues are strong enough, I'd see the NASL teams joining this league. But what you would need is a league full of teams that are competitively balanced. You couldn't have FC Edmonton being able to easily spend $700,000 on salaries with say the Saskatoon team being able to afford $50,000 on salaries. That would likely mean FC Edmonton would kill Saskatoon every time. Yes I know in the FA Cup you get one of the minnows making a run, but that isn't generally the case.

I do think this would take a good 10 or 15 years before it is viable. Whether or not teams like FC Edmonton would want to join this is another story. As far as marketing goes, being able to promote a game against Atlanta or Miami is better than promoting a game against Saskatoon or Kelowna. Large US cities do seem to cause casual sports fans to sit up and take notice of a local team. As a kid, I remember there were several hockey league who tried to start teams in Saskatoon. One of the things the newspaper would always point out is that the league was looking at putting teams in Dallas or Denver. The league was also looking at putting teams in Albany, but that wouldn't hype the league. So I do wonder whether a team like FC Edmonton would want to give up the potential marketing that an Atlanta or Miami would give them?

[loyola]

(MOD) Please get back on topic and avoid personnal attacks. Sanctions have been given and we would like you to keep the debate civil. Thanks (MOD)

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

...It could be sustainable but only if it starts slowly and builds up. Essentially what I mean is do what the CSL is doing, except in a regional format. There needs to be a Prairies Division and a Maritimes Division. Add in the PCSL (I believe that is the big BC based league) teams and begin to invest in them. Once you build support for these teams, especially the Prairies and Maritimes teams then you can begin to think about moving to a bigger salary structure....

I'd forgotten all about the NBL and agree it's a very good analogy with the issues faced by soccer at D2 level. Basically agree that a regional D3 is the way to go right now. The problem with the CSL is that using semi-pro players, who have families/relationships and 9 to 5 jobs, very much limits what can realistically be done in travel terms so a genuinely regional format (as opposed to having the bulk of the league within 2 hours drive of the CN tower) would probably wind up having to have a very limited regular season like the CMISL indoor soccer league right now or the old RCSL in rugby. Personally think something similar in format to PDL with a U23 sort of focus is a more realistic business model in that context and that sort of league should run parallel with open age format semi-pro leagues like the CSL centred on each of the larger cities rather than trying to make one size fit all.

[Richard]

Maybe the new 'non-amateur' non-profit league that this past week applied to the OSA for sanctioning could be the seed for a D3 regional league - breakaway group from the CSL I understand. Could work in other parts of Canada though I think it will be a tough slog in BC.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

That's an interesting development to say the least although not hugely surprising given the obvious clash of interests between the "equity owners" and "playing members". Would this also be related to the talk of an 8 team professional division on the OSL's forum late last year?

http://74.6.117.48/search/srpcache?ei=UTF-8&p=regional+professional+soccer+league+Ontario&fr=yfp-t-701&u=http://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?q=regional+professional+soccer+league+Ontario&d=4815113770962154&mkt=en-US&setlang=en-US&w=2bdcfee3,69e5198f&icp=1&.intl=us&sig=hFce9cXWlN3WUQauNCAutQ--

[Redcoatsforever]

Maybe the new 'non-amateur' non-profit league that this past week applied to the OSA for sanctioning could be the seed for a D3 regional league - breakaway group from the CSL I understand. Could work in other parts of Canada though I think it will be a tough slog in BC.

Please provide a source. I'm not asking for a source in order to dispute it, this just genuinely interests me. Is there a web page with this info?

[Trident]

Please provide a source. I'm not asking for a source in order to dispute it, this just genuinely interests me. Is there a web page with this info?

There was some blurb on what might be the OSA website about a new D3 league applying for sanctioning. I saw it in a thread here that I do not remember the name of. Sorry I can't be more helpful.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Richard's excellent BC Soccerweb site was the place to look for the link:

http://canadakicks.blogspot.com/2011/02/new-d3-non-amateur-league-in-ontario.html

This just came across my desk on a busy afternoon. there appears to be a serious movement from the Durham and Peel-Halton Regions to get a new non-amateur league of the ground in time for a spring 2011 kick-off.

This new league is currently going through the process of seeking approval to become the only Level 1 professional league sanctioned by the Ontario Soccer Association and have made presentations to OSA President, Ron Smale, and several large District Associations....

Here's the would be league's info package:

http://www.canadakicks.com/docs/info_package.pdf

....

Member Clubs

At present, this new league has commitments from member clubs in the following regions:

Hamilton

Milton

Durham

Ottawa

Toronto

Montreal

The new league also has written expressions of interest from 3 other groups based in the Greater Toronto Area and Southwestern Ontario.

Our objective is to seek like-minded organizations across Ontario and Quebec to commence operations in 2011 or 2012, and credible groups have already expressed serious interest.

For the 2011 season, the league expects to operate with a minimum of 10 Clubs.

Plans for further league expansion are in development with the ultimate goal of bringing professional soccer to all communities that can support it.

Long term, this league will seek to grow into a fully integrated, multi-tier structure, whereby new clubs will be able to join at the appropriate/available tier and deserving clubs would be able to move up the competition pyramid through a promotion and relegation system which would be a first of its kind in North American professional soccer.

Existing community soccer clubs who possess the necessary infrastructure and resources to support a professional program will be encouraged to strongly consider becoming a member of this league. Incorporating a senior professional team into a youth club’s competitive program will provide the natural pathway necessary for future generations of young talented players to be able to realistically fulfill their soccer ambitions.

All member clubs will be required to have a formal affiliation with one (or more) community youth clubs in their respective operating area. Furthermore, our member clubs will be expected to be active members in their communities and will work together with existing local stakeholders to help promote the sport in general and to help create coaching and player development programs that will be beneficial for the growth of the sport.

Looks really good and it's easy to work out which CSL clubs and recent conditional expansion teams are probably involved....