Is a 2nd Division Sustainable?

[ted]

Split off from: NASL sanctioning not secure

I still think a NA second division is doomed, on the face of what people here find acceptable as a major-ticket expense.

This is an important question as we discuss the NASL or an upgraded CSL. From a player development perspective I feel a D2 is an absolute necessity if we are to improve the quantity and quality of the talent pool available for our national team. But from a business perspective can we really sustain a D2 league either wholly in Canada or as part of a "North American" (mainly US and Canada and not ever likely to include Mexico) organization?

Are enough people willing to pay sustainable admission prices?

Do we have a sufficient number of well-financed potential investors?

Do Minor League Baseball and the AHL provide models for success?

I would like to think that the answers are positive but then, I want to see Victoria "promoted" to a professional 2nd Division so I will admit to being a little biased. I'd be genuinely interested to hear what others have to say on this fundamental question.

[paul-collins]

How does it work when there's a D1 league that poaches the best from D2 but doesn't relegate?

[dmont]

How does it work when there's a D1 league that poaches the best from D2 but doesn't relegate?

Relegation would be an improvement, but even having promotion would encourage investors with D1 aspirations to start out at the D2 level. If MLS came out and said "In the future, we will only be expanding with owners and markets that have shown success in the NASL", you'd see more interest from owners AND more interest from fans, who would have to come out for the D2 side if they ever want a taste of MLS.

NASL has a shot to be a sustainable D2 league. They just need to cultivate that relationship with MLS, be careful about the ownership groups they let in, provide a good gameday experience, and provide fans and supporters with a ton of access both in person and via social media.

[Guest Ed]

You guys do realize that we are in North America? Relegation is not in the cards when with franchise based ownership. You can debate the merits of pro/rel till the cows come home but it will never happen under the current model of NA pro sports.

[jloome]

You guys do realize that we are in North America? Relegation is not in the cards when with franchise based ownership. You can debate the merits of pro/rel till the cows come home but it will never happen under the current model of NA pro sports.

Never say never. "it will never happen" belies the fact that, technically, much more money is at stake for big euro clubs. Relegation will never happen here as long as we have salary caps -- and since we require those, you're probably right -- but it would be nice to see.

[jloome]

I believe my original quote is somewhat at cross purposes with the discussion.

My version of a Canadian division 1 would likely be viewed as equivalent to division 2 USSF right now, which is what the NASL wants to be.

But I believe the NASL is poorly organized, unprofessional, underbudgeted (slightly) and without focus on its market.

A national first division, with all Canadian teams, would not only get around the USSF's new content restrictions (only 25% of teams in a league can be Canadian), it would open up much more opportuntity for Canadian development -- even if we massively legitimized the league by rebalancing spending to focus on bringing in some foreign talent.

I want a quality local club to support, first and foremost. I believe there are many people who support the sport who will go to a game no matter the quality, but the VAST MAJORITY of the market won't go unless it's a good game, in a good atmosphere.

So for any national division to work, for me, it should be marketed as a Canadian first division, with relatively minimal quotas. NASL budgets are slightly too low, and based on their revenue projects/MLS/USL pro over the last few years, you'd require something somewhere in between the payroll of NASL and MLS.

Either way, no national division -- whether we call it div 2 ussf or div 1 Canadian -- will survive without substantial infrastructure improvements across the country.

And, ideally it would have to start with two regionalized loops that exclude Winnipeg, as central Canada (geographically) is a money pit for an organization where travel is a major part of the bill.

[foreverthursday]

Are enough people willing to pay sustainable admission prices?

I am not trying to argue here, but I thought I would bring something up. Maybe they will charge those prices, and that might be the right key.

A few reasons I have for that are the dozens of teams that have failed before. Maybe charge a professional amount for a professional product. I think people will take team more seriously as well. I will use an example I used with one of the guys from F.C. Edmonton. If you took a nugget of your poop and placed it on eBay for a buck no one would bid at all, but if you placed that same nugget on eBay for nine grand you might get some bids. I could let you figure that one out on your own, but I will summarize nicely. If you sell and market a product well, regardless of it’s value, it will do well. If you undersell it, then the people you are selling it to, will undermine it. Wrong or right, people tend to think that a more expensive product is better. Like all the morons that buy Macs or Volkswagen.

Maybe D2 needs to treat its products with dignity and some respect as to what it is before trying to convince the general public of its perceived value. Have you not noticed that as new MLS teams enter the fold they charge more and more, and they are not in the red as much as places that undersell their team so much, people don’t respect the product. Dallas and Colorado were perfect examples.

A few years back the fast food chain Subway was deep in the red, and an employee brought forth an idea to the board. He had noticed that people that had come in were trying to not go to other fast food chains. His idea was to spend hundreds of millions in building way more locations near existing McDonald’s. His logic was correct and Subway, with a massive marketing bill, has risen to heights that franchise has never seen before.

Maybe we should be spending twenty to thirty bucks a game, maybe the USL Pro league and the NASL should aggressively market. Spending hundreds of thousands to do so. Marketing can be wonderful or just plain evil. If I am ever within a mile’s radius of Justin Bieber, and I know about it, I will do everything in my power to beat him to a pulp for being the second worst thing to ever happen to my country.

San Antonio might just be the team to tip the scales and sell out and sell well. Hindsight, a little more money is completely worth the health of your team.

[jloome]

I am not trying to argue here, but I thought I would bring something up. Maybe they will charge those prices, and that might be the right key.

A few reasons I have for that are the dozens of teams that have failed before. Maybe charge a professional amount for a professional product. I think people will take team more seriously as well. I will use an example I used with one of the guys from F.C. Edmonton. If you took a nugget of your poop and placed it on eBay for a buck no one would bid at all, but if you placed that same nugget on eBay for nine grand you might get some bids. I could let you figure that one out on your own, but I will summarize nicely. If you sell and market a product well, regardless of it’s value, it will do well. If you undersell it, then the people you are selling it to, will undermine it. Wrong or right, people tend to think that a more expensive product is better. Like all the morons that buy Macs or Volkswagen.

Maybe D2 needs to treat its products with dignity and some respect as to what it is before trying to convince the general public of its perceived value. Have you not noticed that as new MLS teams enter the fold they charge more and more, and they are not in the red as much as places that undersell their team so much, people don’t respect the product. Dallas and Colorado were perfect examples.

A few years back the fast food chain Subway was deep in the red, and an employee brought forth an idea to the board. He had noticed that people that had come in were trying to not go to other fast food chains. His idea was to spend hundreds of millions in building way more locations near existing McDonald’s. His logic was correct and Subway, with a massive marketing bill, has risen to heights that franchise has never seen before.

Maybe we should be spending twenty to thirty bucks a game, maybe the USL Pro league and the NASL should aggressively market. Spending hundreds of thousands to do so. Marketing can be wonderful or just plain evil. If I am ever within a mile’s radius of Justin Bieber, and I know about it, I will do everything in my power to beat him to a pulp for being the second worst thing to ever happen to my country.

San Antonio might just be the team to tip the scales and sell out and sell well. Hindsight, a little more money is completely worth the health of your team.

What you're essentially saying is what I've been preaching for an age: on soccer, you have to not only spend a little more, but you have to market wisely and with sheen. If it looks like every league that has failed up until now -- and both NASL and USL Pro do -- there's a good chance the rest of the public will see it that way.

[jpg75]

You guys do realize that we are in North America? Relegation is not in the cards when with franchise based ownership. You can debate the merits of pro/rel till the cows come home but it will never happen under the current model of NA pro sports.

That, and the possibility of relegating a major TV market and/or big-pocketed owner. It's incredible that people are still cluelessly advocating pro/rel for NA Soccer when such a mechanism could sink your entire league.

[Alex D]

To me, the most sustainable way forward for d2 is to have MLS involved. Their credibility will bring in more/better Investors and they have a proven recipe for success now that is being replicated by all of the new clubs.

They could have MLS, MLS 2, and MLS Canada(D2), then enter the top clubs from the lower leagues into the MLS Cup. The opportunity is there for MLS and SUM to have an outright monopoly on north American pro soccer.

[alberta white]

One thing to remember here guys is that the Pro/Rel system that exist in Europe existed way before the money men got involved. Given the Chance they'd end it tomorrow, but chances are it would hasten the conclusion of the Myan Calander.

The EPL would love to see the likes of Blackpool and Wigan Replaced by the likes of Leeds and Sheffield (United or Wednesday) because they can regulary put 35K plus through their gates. But it won't happen because the whole appeal of the EPL is to watch the likes of Blackpool hold their own against the big boys.

Closing up the EPL would be as enathema to English football fans as changing the NHL from East/West conferences. into a Regional group Knockout. :eek:

I would suggest however that if MLS took over governance of a Div 2 league which established a stable finacial framework for 30 to 32 teams, then MLS Cup Playoffs could exist for the top half of div 1 and PRO/REL could entertain the fans of the the lower Div 1 and upper Div2 sides.

It would stop TFC packing it in towards the back end of the summer.

[dmont]

.

I propose a compromise:

What if the NASL as a league eventually purchased/received two or three expansion franchises in MLS? At the same time, USL-Pro teams purchase/receive two or three expansion franchises in NASL.

At the end of every season, the worst of the three NASL teams playing with the MLS teams gets relegated back to NASL, and the year's NASL champ gets the option to advance to MLS. Similar pro/rel between NASL and USL Pro.

Advancing teams need to satisfy a few conditions ie stadium capacity. Salary caps on pro/rel teams adjust upward and downward based on a set formula.

Advantages: 1) Exciting season for NASL teams, 2) Makes owning an NASL frachise more desirable, 3) Rewards well-run NASL and USL Pro teams 4) MLS teams have no risk of being relegated.

A hybrid European/US system of limited promotion/relegation.

[jloome]

.

I propose a compromise:

What if the NASL as a league eventually purchased/received two or three expansion franchises in MLS? At the same time, USL-Pro teams purchase/receive two or three expansion franchises in NASL.

At the end of every season, the worst of the three NASL teams playing with the MLS teams gets relegated back to NASL, and the year's NASL champ gets the option to advance to MLS. Similar pro/rel between NASL and USL Pro.

Advancing teams need to satisfy a few conditions ie stadium capacity. Salary caps on pro/rel teams adjust upward and downward based on a set formula.

Advantages: 1) Exciting season for NASL teams, 2) Makes owning an NASL frachise more desirable, 3) Rewards well-run NASL and USL Pro teams 4) MLS teams have no risk of being relegated.

A hybrid European/US system of limited promotion/relegation.

In trying to please both camps, I don't think that mechanism would satisfy either. Traditionalists would say it's not real relegation unless all the teams face the same threat, and non-traditionalists hate the idea anyway.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

You guys do realize that we are in North America? Relegation is not in the cards when with franchise based ownership. You can debate the merits of pro/rel till the cows come home but it will never happen under the current model of NA pro sports.

...and especially when up front investments of over $100 million are often involved just to get the show on the road in an MLS context. It's not 100% clear to me what the point of this thread is. Some sort of second tier is clearly sustainable in a North American context and any difficulties in that regard right now are being caused primarily by a stringent set of requirements imposed by the USSF at an atificially high level that has managed to scare aware even some of the owners who appeared to be operating at or reasonably close to break even last summer (e.g. Rochester, Austin and Carolina).

The United States alone has 52 metropolitan areas with over 1 million people and they won't all be catered to by MLS in the years ahead and many are way too big for PDL to be a good fit so there is a void that will inevitably be filled one way or another between MLS and PDL. Having access to that is a major boost for Canadian soccer just as having access to MLS has been because in the absence of a north-south link to provide the critical mass of stable franchises required for a financially viable league the alternative could easily be having nothing higher than leagues like the CSL, LSEQ, PCSL and VMSL.

The question maybe should be more a case of what is the sustainable level of operations for the second tier right now? Until MLS maxes out in numbers terms I don't think it's realistic to expect a huge outlay on the SSS side of things aimed at drawing crowds of 10,000 or so. investors might as well aim to be part of the big league where there is already a reasonable prospect of profitability and steadily escalating franchise values if they are going to do that sort of thing on a Stade Saputo rather than a Charleston Battery sort of scale. The Whitecaps and Timbers in USL-D1 sort of scenario is probably the realistic goal of what should be aimed for in terms of a model franchise and ideally the league should have some sort of AAA baseball type relationship with MLS based on player loans.

Three MLS teams and three NASL teams would place Canadian pro soccer on a very solid footing by the middle of this decade. Would be great if more were possible than that in a Canadian context (it's depressing how some of the less intelligent posters on here always seem to fail to grasp the difference between skepticism over viability of a proposed league format and opposition to it in principle) but unless or until the critical mass of wealthy investors appears on the scene to make it happen in a sustainable manner championing that as a cause is either an attention seeking waste of time in cyberspace or some ambitious soccer administrator's empire building ego trip that potentially jeopardizes the progress that can be made using USSF sanctioned leagues.

[ray]

Difficult to say whether Division 2 is sustainable. Many leagues have started and collapsed at various times over the past three decades in North America including the original CSL. It doesn't help that at this time four prime D2 markets have or will soon join MLS. The goal of stability has also been damaged by the split between USL and NASL. D2 will have to survive in 2nd and 3rd tier cities and therefore make do without the drawing power of major metropolitan markets.

Faced with these conditions and historical financial adversity for franchises it makes no sense for the USSF or CSA to restrict any Division 2 league from adding teams from the other country. There are going to be franchise failures as there have been in the past and new owners from both sides of the border will be necessary while the 2nd tier of soccer struggles to find its niche. Canada and the U.S. have an interest in working together to keep D2 soccer alive until better conditions allow it to thrive.

[Keano]

My feeling is that Montreal and Vancouver and to a lesser extent, Puerto Rico, were/are anomalies that made a semi-healthy D2 possible in NA for a short(ish) period of time. I don't see where that next Montreal and Vancouver is going to come from, averaging 5-12K crowds to stabilize a largely shifting and unstable 1-2K crowds type of league. Unless the reality of NA D2 soccer is on a much smaller, less stable scale than we've seen in the past, which is not encouraging.

As for pro/rel, I agree with other posters that I strongly doubt it's going to happen, despite Garber's vague comments to the contrary (in the distant future). But, realism aside, I personally don't find it illogical to imagine a scenario where, for instance, a 22 or 24-team MLS splits in half arbitrarily, with a lottery, and begins play on equal footing, but with pro/rel so that over 4 or 5 seasons the D1 would pass from only nominally the better division, to actually being the better division in practice. Theoretically this would give every team a more or less equal chance to establish themselves as a regular in the D1 before it really became quite difficult to do so over time. However I doubt this type of imagination exists at that head office.

[paul-collins]

I certainly wasn't advocating promotion / relegation, I was just noting that we essentially have that right now (without the relegation part) based on ownership rather than performance criteria. As such, any stable franchise that is developed in D2 is destined to be poached by the MLS leaving D2 in a perpetually weakened state. Every success they lose, every failure they get to keep. That's no recipe for financial stability or success.

At some point, for D2 to be stable, D1 has to recognize their own need of a successful D2 league. Perhaps the only way to make it happen is a reserve (in baseball context, AAA or AA) league.

[Marc]

As Blizzard aluded to up there I think too often these discussions get caught up in what we *want* to see in a D2 league, as opposed to what a D2 league needs. I don’t have the answers or even many suggestions but about 1/3 of this discussion always trends toward our personal wishlists as soccer fans

… E.g. the desire for 7-10k-ish attendance at a D2 level isn’t probably all that realistic in the short to medium term (and possibly not even really necessary, a business case may be able to be made at a lower attendance – personally I think it has to for D2 viability) There are Euro countries with decently priced tickets and soccer as the number-one sport where some teams are lucky to draw above 5000. In tier 1.

… SSS or better facilities are always nice but not really all that relevant to most non-super fans

… pro-rel is not just off-the-table, but actually a completely foreign concept that will harm both D1/D2. It’s simply not necessary. It’s the stuff of soccer wet dreamers like us. Pro-rel over here is the equivalent of using lower league UK teams as bonafide official farm teams for the Premier clubs. How well did that go over the last time it was floated? Not going to happen, and for good reasons, culturally.

… the idea that D1 needs a D2 league. North American D1 soccer needs a D2 league in the same way that every citizen of Canada needs to have the skills to survive on our own in the wild, i.e., yeah, it’d be ideal, but really, no we don’t…who does?

D2 needs to independently viable. In order to do that D2 needs to be able to have decent-enough quality to draw the local core soccer fans/community while being a fun-enough time for other locals who like sports, or like the culture/social/bandwagon aspect, or quite frankly have nothing else to do (or, in the case of farm/feeder leagues, see upandcoming stars) *if* there isn’t a big enough soccer crowd for the thing to break even. Pricing needs to be high enough to deliver quality but also needs to be family affordable. That’s key to success in many lower leagues, particularly in baseball across the US.

Any benefit a D2 league brings to a D1 league is simply a bonus for both parties. MLS doesn’t need D2 to develop players because MLS has the whole world to develop players for it to plug up any gaps or development cracks. Homegrown players are simply a bonus, not a necessity in any short-medium term, and probably not even needed long-term.

… MLS doesn’t need D2 to develop rivalries, because local cup draws are infrequent and foreign to many non-super fans anyway. D2 does develop broader interest in the game, but those interest spheres generally won’t overlap with D1 because of geographic distance, the North am. mentality about lower league sports, and because they’re two separate leagues with different markets. Do the Omaha Ak-Sar-Ben Knights or the Lafeyette Gators really turn locals into NHL fans? The NHL itself doesn’t turn locals into NHL fans!

I do think that a farm system, as culturally anathematic as it is to us soccer guys, may be one of the ways to approach D2 (and lower) soccer in the future, but D2 is going to have to stand on its own two feet first, and then make the case that it brings tangible and necessary benefits to D1.

[jloome]

Good post!

As Blizzard aluded to up there I think too often these discussions get caught up in what we *want* to see in a D2 league, as opposed to what a D2 league needs. I don’t have the answers or even many suggestions but about 1/3 of this discussion always trends toward our personal wishlists as soccer fans

Again, where's the line that delineates which product will draw consumers? What is "needed" by soccer, or what is wanted by the fanbase -- which any newspaper sports editor who forgets to run soccer tables will tell you is huge and untapped.

… E.g. the desire for 7-10k-ish attendance at a D2 level isn’t probably all that realistic in the short to medium term (and possibly not even really necessary, a business case may be able to be made at a lower attendance – personally I think it has to for D2 viability) There are Euro countries with decently priced tickets and soccer as the number-one sport where some teams are lucky to draw above 5000. In tier 1.

You're also talking about, generally, much smaller communities. Edmonton draws 9,000 for indoor pro lacrosse. It has a population of a million people now. So does Calgary and the Ottawa/Gatineau region.

… SSS or better facilities are always nice but not really all that relevant to most non-super fans

The atmosphere created by the hardcore fans, however, is what keeps them coming back on gameday. And that's much easier to create with stands close to the field. Some footballs stadiums that's fine, others not. The pointyball lines are the biggest issue, I think, for detracting from the game.

And having agreed with most of your point, it's still relevant that some major Canadian centres simply have no facility, or at least one that requires major reno.So it's definitely an issue.

… pro-rel is not just off-the-table, but actually a completely foreign concept that will harm both D1/D2. It’s simply not necessary. It’s the stuff of soccer wet dreamers like us. Pro-rel over here is the equivalent of using lower league UK teams as bonafide official farm teams for the Premier clubs. How well did that go over the last time it was floated? Not going to happen, and for good reasons, culturally.

Lower UK teams ARE official farm clubs. Most premier and championship teams have twinning relationships with lower league clubs, giving them first right of refusal on some players. It's just a partnership, as opposed to the bigger club having control. But in terms of player movement, it has a similar impact.

… the idea that D1 needs a D2 league. North American D1 soccer needs a D2 league in the same way that every citizen of Canada needs to have the skills to survive on our own in the wild, i.e., yeah, it’d be ideal, but really, no we don’t…who does?

No one. That's one of my points. We need a D1 league in Canada (even if it's one the USSF would consider D2). There's a lot more national pride in this country than 10 or 20 years ago, more identity.

D2 needs to independently viable. In order to do that D2 needs to be able to have decent-enough quality to draw the local core soccer fans/community while being a fun-enough time for other locals who like sports, or like the culture/social/bandwagon aspect, or quite frankly have nothing else to do (or, in the case of farm/feeder leagues, see upandcoming stars) *if* there isn’t a big enough soccer crowd for the thing to break even. Pricing needs to be high enough to deliver quality but also needs to be family affordable. That’s key to success in many lower leagues, particularly in baseball across the US.

Again, easier if it's cast in the light of being a first division, with enough outside talent brought in to support the contention. NASL right now isn't terribly underfunded, but it is both slightly underfunded and poorly managed.

Any benefit a D2 league brings to a D1 league is simply a bonus for both parties. MLS doesn’t need D2 to develop players because MLS has the whole world to develop players for it to plug up any gaps or development cracks. Homegrown players are simply a bonus, not a necessity in any short-medium term, and probably not even needed long-term.

Yes and no.... MLS has a working arrangement with the USSF to groom homegrown players. Beyond that, it's bringing back its reserve league. If that league could be turned into a D2, it might be more a matter of good marketing than a dramatic shift in their infrastructure, creating the affiliations you mentioned earlier.

… MLS doesn’t need D2 to develop rivalries, because local cup draws are infrequent and foreign to many non-super fans anyway. D2 does develop broader interest in the game, but those interest spheres generally won’t overlap with D1 because of geographic distance, the North am. mentality about lower league sports, and because they’re two separate leagues with different markets. Do the Omaha Ak-Sar-Ben Knights or the Lafeyette Gators really turn locals into NHL fans? The NHL itself doesn’t turn locals into NHL fans!

You have to develop local 'super fans' and cup rivalries help do that. No, it's not really necessary. But if you think about it, neither are most leagues' playoffs. But they generate fan interest and excitement. The issue you're addressing is the US open cup format of allowing small amateur teams in, which I agree seems foolish at this stage.

I do think that a farm system, as culturally anathematic as it is to us soccer guys, may be one of the ways to approach D2 (and lower) soccer in the future, but D2 is going to have to stand on its own two feet first, and then make the case that it brings tangible and necessary benefits to D1.

Yep. And something mediocre generally sells better if you wrap it in shiny gold packaging. A Canadian D1, sanctioned as such by the CSA, does not have to cost a fortune more than D2 USSF. But it could at least firm up public confidence in the idea.

[ted]

I believe my original quote is somewhat at cross purposes with the discussion.

My version of a Canadian division 1 would likely be viewed as equivalent to division 2 USSF right now, which is what the NASL wants to be.

Well, I used your quote to try and start a whole different discussion that examined some of the questions I asked. However, since no one seems interested in answering these questions....

I have a question for you because I am confused. You keep talking about a D1 league for Canada yet I get the impression you are not including the three Canadian MLS teams in your plans. Is this the case? Are you really suggesting we have a D1 league without Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal?

[Keano]

Well, I used your quote to try and start a whole different discussion that examined some of the questions I asked. However, since no one seems interested in answering these questions....

I have a question for you because I am confused. You keep talking about a D1 league for Canada yet I get the impression you are not including the three Canadian MLS teams in your plans. Is this the case? Are you really suggesting we have a D1 league without Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal?

They'd have to leave and join it, however then you'd end up with Scotland or Greece with 2-3 good sides stomping all over a crappy, 3rd-rate league.

[jpg75]

The reality though is that the Big 3 MLS clubs are not leaving that league to play in a Canadian league. The only way they end up back in Canada is if MLS folds. So any Canadian league needs to be planned without them.

[Keano]

So basically we'd be Wales, fantastic

lol

[Marc]

It's difficult to respond in kind to each point without polluting the message board so I don't want to you think I'm giving your response short-shrift, I appreciate the well-though-out post. I guess my main point is that we're thinking about D2 from too much of a Euro-centric and game-day centric lens. We're playing a little too much fantasy football - and believe me I get caught in it all of the time too.

As for the small size of European cities, we're kinda similar. Outside of Edmonton and Calgary, we have few untapped markets with large drawing potential. Those that we do have are not proximitous. I think Edmonton drawing 9000 for lacrosse is a great example of ... a top-level sport not really drawing that many fans. What are we going to get for second-level soccer, which has to overcome the history of past failures at that level, plus compete with top level North American soccer and with European soccer of all different flavours, levels and qualities?

Personally, I think the local rivalry aspect has very little potential and is not as relevant in the North am sports context as it is in Europe. We don't have the same microidentities and history of regional conflict/rivalry spilling out into sports as they do in some parts of Europe. That's not to say that the odd rivalry can't exist - Calg/Edm, for example, I'm sure Victoria would like to play Vancouver - but I don't ever see it as a driver for fans in a D2 system. Even the ones that do exist are more happenstance than anything - as much as I'd love it, a Hamilton-Toronto soccer rivalry will be nothing like the one that exists between the TiCats and the Argos. D2 soccer is not going to draw 'hardcore' fans and isn't going to cultivate a strong day-game experience in a European sense. That's not to say some clubs won't have some elements of it, but most just aren't going to have the quality of soccer to turn the heads of the snobs, and for the non-snobs out there, well, guys like us are going to show up regardless. That leaves the third group, the everyday sports fans who just like to attend the game and for them, well, Canadian/US no longer have that history and culture of strong passion for local professional sports. That's not to say they don't attend - it's just a different type and level of interest.

It'd be lovely, but a D2 in Canada is not going to be European-esque lower league scene; it is going to be, in my opinion, not about building fans but more about providing an opportunity for young players to develop. It's going to look more Toronto Lynx than Toronto FC. More junior hockey than European hockey. But I think that's just to be expected.

(and just FYI -- Clubs in the UK are not farm clubs in any sense of the word. Some have loan agreements and a few have given up first refusal rights (well, I've only ever seen this in the UK context in the Football Manager computer game, never in real life above the Conf level) but they are nothing at all like the systems in place in Germany or Spain or in the sense of the baseball or NHL/AHL/ECHL systems out here. They're individual organizations, separate teams, separate leagues and not nursery clubs at all.)

[jloome]

It's difficult to respond in kind to each point without polluting the message board so I don't want to you think I'm giving your response short-shrift, I appreciate the well-though-out post. I guess my main point is that we're thinking about D2 from too much of a Euro-centric and game-day centric lens. We're playing a little too much fantasy football - and believe me I get caught in it all of the time too.

As for the small size of European cities, we're kinda similar. Outside of Edmonton and Calgary, we have few untapped markets with large drawing potential. Those that we do have are not proximitous. I think Edmonton drawing 9000 for lacrosse is a great example of ... a top-level sport not really drawing that many fans. What are we going to get for second-level soccer, which has to overcome the history of past failures at that level, plus compete with top level North American soccer and with European soccer of all different flavours, levels and qualities?

Personally, I think the local rivalry aspect has very little potential and is not as relevant in the North am sports context as it is in Europe. We don't have the same microidentities and history of regional conflict/rivalry spilling out into sports as they do in some parts of Europe. That's not to say that the odd rivalry can't exist - Calg/Edm, for example, I'm sure Victoria would like to play Vancouver - but I don't ever see it as a driver for fans in a D2 system. Even the ones that do exist are more happenstance than anything - as much as I'd love it, a Hamilton-Toronto soccer rivalry will be nothing like the one that exists between the TiCats and the Argos. D2 soccer is not going to draw 'hardcore' fans and isn't going to cultivate a strong day-game experience in a European sense. That's not to say some clubs won't have some elements of it, but most just aren't going to have the quality of soccer to turn the heads of the snobs, and for the non-snobs out there, well, guys like us are going to show up regardless. That leaves the third group, the everyday sports fans who just like to attend the game and for them, well, Canadian/US no longer have that history and culture of strong passion for local professional sports. That's not to say they don't attend - it's just a different type and level of interest.

It'd be lovely, but a D2 in Canada is not going to be European-esque lower league scene; it is going to be, in my opinion, not about building fans but more about providing an opportunity for young players to develop. It's going to look more Toronto Lynx than Toronto FC. More junior hockey than European hockey. But I think that's just to be expected.

(and just FYI -- Clubs in the UK are not farm clubs in any sense of the word. Some have loan agreements and a few have given up first refusal rights (well, I've only ever seen this in the UK context in the Football Manager computer game, never in real life above the Conf level) but they are nothing at all like the systems in place in Germany or Spain or in the sense of the baseball or NHL/AHL/ECHL systems out here. They're individual organizations, separate teams, separate leagues and not nursery clubs at all.)

Have to agree to disagree, then. 9,000 per game isn't "drawing badly" anywhere in the world except in North America. If you can make the economics of it work elsewhere, you can generally make it work here. We have an arrogance here that comes from being a newer culture, that we have our own way of doing everything. But it's simply not the case.

I don't think a D2 development league, as your describing, will ever draw more than 2,500 a game and ever be considered much better than "semi-pro." And I am confident that, based on their support for overseas football, the market is here.