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Currently 16th in July 2011 CONCACAF Rankings


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http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/01/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-for.html

With the CONCACAF WCQ draw date apparently in limbo (July 31st, not May 31st?) the July 2011 CONCACAF rankings may take on greater importance than we originally assumed.

I'm not sure if we even win the Gold Cup if it would be enough for us to climb back into the top 8.

Discuss...

P.S. I apologize if this is a re-post or is currently being discussed in another thread (I missed it).

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I might be missing the point but Fifa has us ranked 8th in concacaf

18 1 USA 867 0 0

27 2 Mexico 795 0 0

56 3 Honduras 531 3 15

59 4 Jamaica 522 -1 0

62 5 Cuba 512 0 0

67 6 Panama 475 -3 -26

69 7 Costa Rica 467 0 0

84 8 Canada 411 0 0

http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=23914&rank=200

The list was updated january 12 2011

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These are projected rankings for the month of July 2011 in CONCACAF, which could very well be used if the WCQ draw date is in fact July 31st (a lot of unknowns, I know).

These are obviously not final, for example a draw or win versus Greece will give us more points, etc, etc...

But to see us currently projected 16th tells me that we're very likely to be in the 2nd pot for the CONCACAF WCQ draw if they use the July 2011 rankings.

I know it was a point of concern for many (including myself) to get into the top 8 for the draw to ensure we'd be in the first pot and have an easier road.

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The basis for this is explained

"Here's the intermediate July 2011 ranking - it means the 2007 Gold Cup results are dropped, while the 2009 Gold Cup loses value"

Im not sure how this works, so I dunno what to make of that. What's bolded there makes some sense, because July 2011 would be 4 years beyond the June 2007 Gold Cup.

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It's difficult to put this into perspective (part of the reason I started the thread because I wanted to hear what everyone else thought).

If you take a look at our semi-final run in the 2007 Gold Cup we gained about 197 points:

http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=23914&rank=158

Considering Trinidad and Tobago wont be in it we could possibly pass them with a similar performance. However, I fully expect them to add a few winnable games to their schedule over the next fews months to get the boost they need. I don't think we have a hope of passing Panama who will also be in the Gold Cup (earning 3.0x times the regular FIFA points).

Jack runs the show, July rankings are obviously better for Trinidad, so our draw fate may already be sealed...

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I am clearly missing the point here, so excuse my ignorance....

But how the hell did the likes of Antigua, Haiti, Suriname and others suddenly rocket past us because they are going to use the July rankings instead of the May rankings?

The reason that those other teams are ranked higher than us is largely due to the fact that they all participate in continental qualification tournaments (ie, qualifying for the Gold Cup) every two years, during which they are able to rack up big points for every positive result. A team can gain a lot more rankings points via continental qualifiers than via friendlies.

Canada does not get the "opportunity" to qualify for the Gold Cup, and thus we have a systematic penalty in terms of our ranking relative to all other CONCACAF nations (except USA and Mexico).

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Jack runs the show, July rankings are obviously better for Trinidad, so our draw fate may already be sealed...

This is the part that scares me. It was made known long ago that the May 2011 rankings would be used for WCQ seeding. Now that I'm finally starting to relax that we'll probably end up 8th in the May rankings, there now seems to be the possibility that July 2011 will be used instead. With T&T having a chance at landing in the top 8, and with Jack running things, I'm starting to expect more last-minute changes.

We will need a very positive Gold Cup 2011 to climb back to 8th, I think.

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It was made known long ago that the May 2011 rankings would be used for WCQ seeding.

I'm not sure that it ever was and if it was I assume it had a lot to do with a presumed May 2011 WCQ draw date. If it is in fact a July 31st draw, I'd think all bets are off on the May 2011 rankings being used.

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Amazing to look at that projected ranking with Honduras #1 and Mexico slipping to 4th.

If indeed the July rankings will be used then a whole lot will depend on the Gold Cup. So much so that I'm not sure how much this projection really matters. It's also important to remember that Trinidad failed to qualify so I honestly think they'll still have a tough time hanging on to a place in the top 8 regardless.

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I'm not sure that it ever was and if it was I assume it had a lot to do with a presumed May 2011 WCQ draw date. If it is in fact a July 31st draw, I'd think all bets are off on the May 2011 rankings being used.

Wait i am confused

those rankings put us that low assuming we do nothing after this Greece game right?

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Wait i am confused

those rankings put us that low assuming we do nothing

Fixed.

This is panicky and fear mongering. If we do well in the Gold Cup, our rankings will be roughly the same as they were before. If we do well in the friendlies leading up to the Gold Cup, we'll do better as well.

This is on the assumption that everyone on that list does absolutely nothing to improve their position.

Teams are gonna play friendlies. They're gonna lose and win matches. Predicting what it's going to be in lieu of matches is perhaps one of the most futile and pointless efforts I've ever seen.

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It's difficult to put this into perspective (part of the reason I started the thread because I wanted to hear what everyone else thought).

If you take a look at our semi-final run in the 2007 Gold Cup we gained about 197 points:

http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=23914&rank=158

Considering Trinidad and Tobago wont be in it we could possibly pass them with a similar performance. However, I fully expect them to add a few winnable games to their schedule over the next fews months to get the boost they need. I don't think we have a hope of passing Panama who will also be in the Gold Cup (earning 3.0x times the regular FIFA points).

Jack runs the show, July rankings are obviously better for Trinidad, so our draw fate may already be sealed...

I'll try to run a simulation as soon as the Gold Cup groups are out - with minimum and maximum possible points.

The values displayed in the table are computed assuming every team loses its all matches between now and July 27th. (Of course, that's not possible). Those are basically the minimum possible values for each team.

Edited by Edgar
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http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=23914&rank=201

Ranking Zonal Ranking Team Pts

Feb 11 +/- Ranking

Jan 11 +/- Pts

Jan 11

18 1 USA 869 0 2

27 2 Mexico 803 0 8

39 3 Honduras 613 17 82

48 4 Costa Rica 560 21 93

59 5 Jamaica 525 0 3

60 6 Panama 518 7 43

65 7 Cuba 498 -3 -14

80 8 Canada 414 4 3

92 9 Grenada 357 2 8

94 10 Trinidad and Tobago 351 -7 -22

96 11 Haiti 349 -6 -9

98 12 El Salvador 347 18 96

104 13 Antigua and Barbuda 303 -1 4

112 14 Guyana 274 -1 -1

117 15 Suriname 257 -2 0

118 16 St. Kitts and Nevis 242 3 0

126 17 Guatemala 220 -9 -27

128 18 Dominica 196 1 0

130 19 Puerto Rico 187 1 3

132 20 Barbados 183 -2 -4

148 21 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 110 -4 -22

150 22 Netherlands Antilles 107 0 0

156 23 Cayman Islands 88 0 0

161 24 Nicaragua 79 -4 -7

167 25 Bermuda 67 5 12

168 26 Dominican Republic 66 -1 0

169 27 Belize 64 4 10

177 28 British Virgin Islands 41 0 0

181 29 St. Lucia 37 0 0

186 30 Turks and Caicos Islands 19 0 0

194 31 Bahamas 13 0 0

199 32 Aruba 7 0 0

200 33 US Virgin Islands 5 0 0

203 34 Anguilla 0 0 0

203 35 Montserrat 0 0 0

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This is panicky and fear mongering.

I didn't intend to come off panicky or fearful. I was just trying to bring to light the point gap that we face between now and July. I'm looking forward to the upcoming WCQ draw regardless of what pot we're in. Pot B definitely raises the potential for a tough semi-final group but so be it. Hoping for a perfect road so we can qualify is a bad attitude to have anyways.

I'll try to run a simulation as soon as the Gold Cup groups are out - with minimum and maximum possible points.

The values displayed in the table are computed assuming every team loses its all matches between now and July 27th. (Of course, that's not possible). Those are basically the minimum possible values for each team.

Thanks Edgar. Hopefully CONCACAF will spill the beans on the rankings they intend to use sooner rather than later.

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What really kills us for the July rankings is that the period July 21, 2009 - July 21, 2010 we only got one result (a draw in a friendly against Venezuela). This means that the average points for that time period was a mere 27.6 which is the second largest component of the July 2011 ranking. A good run in the Gold Cup this year should still get us into the top 8, but playing more friendlies this year probably hurts more than helps as they will likely just bring down the average.

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I didn't intend to come off panicky or fearful. I was just trying to bring to light the point gap that we face between now and July. I'm looking forward to the upcoming WCQ draw regardless of what pot we're in. Pot B definitely raises the potential for a tough semi-final group but so be it. Hoping for a perfect road so we can qualify is a bad attitude to have anyways.

I don't think he meant to imply that you were panicky or fear mongering, i think he was talking about the article.

IMO i don't see use falling that low i fully expect us to say where we are at right now?

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