Chances Are ...

[tmcmurph]

Six games and 5 points behind Seattle with KC and Chicago having 2 games in hand on you and only 1-2 points behind. While bleak there still is a chance to make it but that may involve abandoning the CCL games to the bench and academy players and resting the starting 11.

Here is what is left. Although all are must win you do face a few weaker teams (Houston and DC). You must take max points of basement dwellers. Quakes, and Seattle are fighting for their playoff life so they will be tough games but if you can prevent Seattle from stretching their 5 points farther or better yet close it to 2. Both those games are vital. RSL is a very strong team but might get bogged down in CCL. Steal a point at least. Chivas are similar to you so it will be a tough game.

Dynamo v Toronto FC

Toronto FC v Earthquakes

Toronto FC v Real Salt Lake

Sounders v Toronto FC

Chivas USA v Toronto FC

DC United v Toronto FC

With 4 wins you would have 12 more points and finish at 45. Could make it depending on what others do. Even though your fate is not in your hands it will be interesting to see what TFC team shows up. 12 out of 18 points is hard and you have never done it before but it has to start sometime.

Good luck, you need it.

[amacpher]

Although 4 wins out of 6 means nothing if you lose in Seattle.

So I think you have to look at it as 5+1 games left. The "+1" being the Seattle game which is an obvious must-win. Then looking at the other 5 games they would need to be 2 or 3 points better than Seattle (depending on who wins the tie-break).

At this point you don't even concern yourself with KC, Chivas, NE, Philly or Chicago. Catching Seattle would require a 180-degree change in form which would most likely imply that you've stayed ahead of those other 5 in the process.

[narduch]

So I think you have to look at it as 5+1 games left. The "+1" being the Seattle game which is an obvious must-win. Then looking at the other 5 games they would need to be 2 or 3 points better than Seattle (depending on who wins the tie-break).

TFC already beat Seattle at home earlier this season so if they were to win in Seattle they would hold he tie-breaker between the two teams.