CONCACAF to submit its proposed format for 2014 WCQ to FIFA

[Obinna 8,571]

I agree. I don't think there's any chance we catch T&T, Jamaica, Costa Rica, or Panama by May, all of whom will be ahead of us as of November's rankings, and all of whom still have plenty of high-points games over the next few months.

That puts us 8th in CONCACAF as of November, with Guyana and Grenada close behind. Both of those teams have at least two more continental qualifying games in the next month, including games against teams that are ranked lower than them. I can easily imagine that we'll be ranked 10th in CONCACAF by the time May comes around.

The CSA has done a good job getting us quality opponents lately, and I wonder if they will continue this trend or will they get us more beatable opponents so we can raise or FIFA standing before May. I would expect the former, and rightly so, as we have to beat everyone at some point. We should have no fear of a tough 2nd round group with Mexico and CR. If we can't get 2nd out of a group like that we dont deserve to go to Brazil

[Kusch to the Corner 38]

The thing is, the more games you play, the better you get (in theory).

That being said it would be best to play as many games as possible in qualifying against weaker opposition before we hit the inevitable really difficult group.

[TFC07 59]

So I take it that this new format is bad news for Canada.

[jpg75 12]

We also shouldn't overlook the potential difficulties in the 1st round group ie. getting a 17th ranked team like Haiti or Grenada that could pull off that 5% chance of upset.

[CanadianSoccerFan 1,485]

So I take it that this new format is bad news for Canada.

Not really. It's not the format, it's just the bull**** **** way in which they're seeding it to benefit the caribbean by excluding next year's gold cup from the calculation.

[jpg75 12]

So I take it that this new format is bad news for Canada.

No, the rankings being used are bad news. This format makes it easier for a team like us to get hot and upset the US or Mexico in the final group stage. Also, it gives us more games to play and gel as a unit.

[rdroze 0]

The CSA has done a good job getting us quality opponents lately, and I wonder if they will continue this trend or will they get us more beatable opponents so we can raise or FIFA standing before May. I would expect the former, and rightly so, as we have to beat everyone at some point. We should have no fear of a tough 2nd round group with Mexico and CR. If we can't get 2nd out of a group like that we dont deserve to go to Brazil

I understand where you're coming from, but for me, "deserve" has nothing to do with it. I don't care if we deserve to qualify for the WC, I just want us to be there. If we lose three straight games in Brazil, I'd still much prefer that to not being involved at all.

And we don't really have to beat everyone, we need to beat the right teams at the right time. If we had not stunk the joint up so much last time, but had actually "deserved" to be the fourth-best team in CONCACAF last WCQ campaign, we still would not have gone through, since our difficult semi-final group had the #1 and #3 CONCACAF teams in it. Put us in a slightly easier group, and maybe we make it through to the hex, and maybe a fourth-place finish. Costa Rica only lost the playoff against WC semi-finalist Uruguay by a single goal.

I want us to get every possible advantage for making it to the World Cup, and I don't think that playing second-tier European nations is doing much to improve our chances.

[Keegan 3,718]

I understand where you're coming from, but for me, "deserve" has nothing to do with it. I don't care if we deserve to qualify for the WC, I just want us to be there. If we lose three straight games in Brazil, I'd still much prefer that to not being involved at all.

And we don't really have to beat everyone, we need to beat the right teams at the right time. If we had not stunk the joint up so much last time, but had actually "deserved" to be the fourth-best team in CONCACAF last WCQ campaign, we still would not have gone through, since our difficult semi-final group had the #1 and #3 CONCACAF teams in it. Put us in a slightly easier group, and maybe we make it through to the hex, and maybe a fourth-place finish. Costa Rica only lost the playoff against WC semi-finalist Uruguay by a single goal.

I want us to get every possible advantage for making it to the World Cup, and I don't think that playing second-tier European nations is doing much to improve our chances.

Okay so even if we were to qualify last time around we would still need to beat Honduras/Costa Rica whether it be in the hex or the semi final so what difference does it make?

[rdroze 0]

Okay so even if we were to qualify last time around we would still need to beat Honduras/Costa Rica whether it be in the hex or the semi final so what difference does it make?

Maybe, maybe not. Our presence in the hex would have denied some other team from making it. If we had made it to the hex through an easier group, then perhaps Costa Rica wouldn't have been there, if they had been stuck in the hard group with Mexico and Honduras.

I know this is all very hypothetical, and I'm arguing lots of "ifs". Certainly, if we crap out like we did last time, then it doesn't matter.

But it's all about probabilities for me. Assuming there's some real correlation between the FIFA ranking and actual team quality, then it's always best to be ranked and seeded as high as possible, to have as easy a schedule for as long as possible. Yes, eventually you'll have to play the harder teams. But when you get stuck in a hard group in an earlier stage, you basically have one extra chance to not qualify.

I'd prefer to limit the hard games to one stage at the end, rather than have hard games throughout.

[TFC07 59]

Not really. It's not the format, it's just the bull**** **** way in which they're seeding it to benefit the caribbean by excluding next year's gold cup from the calculation.

No, the rankings being used are bad news. This format makes it easier for a team like us to get hot and upset the US or Mexico in the final group stage. Also, it gives us more games to play and gel as a unit.

Thanks.

TBH, there shouldn't be any excuses for Canada to 'fear' teams like Costa Rica. Canada has all the resources in the world to become a decent soccer nation and CONCACAF powerhouse. We just need a decent coach (Hart is a good coach, but I don't think he is suited to manage national team...it will be better for Canada to hire foreign coach for short term) to qualify for upcoming world cup.

[Macksam 1,733]

Thanks.

TBH, there shouldn't be any excuses for Canada to 'fear' teams like Costa Rica. Canada has all the resources in the world to become a decent soccer nation and CONCACAF powerhouse. We just need a decent coach (Hart is a good coach, but I don't think he is suited to manage national team...it will be better for Canada to hire foreign coach for short term) to qualify for upcoming world cup.

In due time.

[paul-collins 19]

By foreign I gather you mean "not English speaking?" I thought Hart *was* foreign(ish)?

[Edgar 0]

You're 6th right now in the May 2011 FIFA ranking - the one that will be used to seed the teams.

[BringBackTheBlizzard 4]

There is still scope for a somewhat challenging first round group with those rankings given Guatemala and to a lesser extent Cuba are in the third pot. Something like Canada, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua, for example. Although Canada, Barbados, Cayman Islands and St Lucia would be the other extreme obviously.

Edited November 10, 2010 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[rdroze 0]

You're 6th right now in the May 2011 FIFA ranking - the one that will be used to seed the teams.

Thanks for posting that. I'd been to your site yesterday hoping to find just such info.

Unfortunately the four teams immediately below us still have high-points games to play in the next little while, but we have none.

[BuzzAndSting 3,184]

There is still scope for a somewhat challenging first round group with those rankings given Guatemala and to a lesser extent Cuba are in the third pot. Something like Canada, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua, for example. Although Canada, Barbados, Cayman Islands and St Lucia would be the other extreme obviously.

+1 for the second group! That would be ridiculous and probably more detrimental than good...

[CanadianSoccerFan 1,485]

For the first group it would be ideal to get two minnows and one solid opponent. That way advancement is assured while still getting two quality games in the group.

[Keegan 3,718]

Looking at those pots I wouldn't really be worried about any group we are drawn into, it might actually be better to get the hardest group possible. Even if we fall to the second pot theres no way we should drop points to any of the teams in the 3rd or 4th pots.

[TFC07 59]

By foreign I gather you mean "not English speaking?" I thought Hart *was* foreign(ish)?

I mean someone outside of Canada (more importantly, outside of CSA circle) coming in and taking over men program.

[Edgar 0]

Canada tied for 7th with Panama. Still in the first pot, but it's very shaky. Grenada only 7 points behind you and this doesn't include the very likely March friendly in Europe.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CONCACAF teams (10 December 2010)

[jonovision 721]

Canada tied for 7th with Panama. Still in the first pot, but it's very shaky. Grenada only 7 points behind you and this doesn't include the very likely March friendly in Europe.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CONCACAF teams (10 December 2010)

We should be playing the likes of Grenada, Haiti, or Antigua or another of the much over-rated Caribbean sides during the January camp. Heck, play more than one match. The ratings points for a friendly don't compare with the easy pickings these squads recently picked up in their qualifying tournament, but it would help tide us over in case we don't get the needed results against Greece or a March opponent.

[CanadianSoccerFan 1,485]

Canada tied for 7th with Panama. Still in the first pot, but it's very shaky. Grenada only 7 points behind you and this doesn't include the very likely March friendly in Europe.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CONCACAF teams (10 December 2010)

Cuba 4th??????? yikes

[Sam 1]

I'm not really that nervous. If we finish 9th and are in the second pot we'll get one of the big boys and then two smaller teams. If we can't beat the smaller teams we have no right to be in the next round. And the top 2 go through so we don't have to beat our "first pot" opponent, but it will be good to get some competitive games against the best teams early in the competition.

[Kusch to the Corner 38]

^^

presumably in the next round though, the seedings will still be used. This is where we could get 3 good teams in a group (us being one) instead of 2 good teams (us being one).

[jpg75 12]

I'm not really that nervous. If we finish 9th and are in the second pot we'll get one of the big boys and then two smaller teams. If we can't beat the smaller teams we have no right to be in the next round. And the top 2 go through so we don't have to beat our "first pot" opponent, but it will be good to get some competitive games against the best teams early in the competition.

We could end up with Guatemala from the third pot in our first round group which makes things much harder then they need to be. Then we have the possibility of being stuck in a group of death in the second round (Mexico and Honduras/Costa Rica). I'll pass on getting some competitive games early on, please and thank you.