CONCACAF to submit its proposed format for 2014 WCQ to FIFA

[Redpunkfiddle]

I haven't seen this update elsewhere, but on a Honduran sports page... this proposal is being formally submitted following the discussion at the CONCACAF conference this past May:

http://www.laprensa.hn/Deportes/Ediciones/2010/08/27/Noticias/Concacaf-definio-forma-de-jugar-las-eliminatorias?nomobile=1

1st Phase: The six Caribbean countries with the lowest FIFA ranking play an elimination round against each other (I presume a home and away)

2nd Phase: A seeded draw creates groups of four (four groups I presume) and round robin play will see the top two teams from each move on.

3rd Phase: Two groups of four play round robin.

The article says that CONCACAF is asking for four direct places in the WC...

If three and a half are awarded, then the two second place teams in the groups play home and away with the winner qualifying directly and the loser going to a playoff against CONMEBOL or whoever.

I believe it says that a decision will be made in December.

[grigorio]

Doesn't this proposed format mean that you would actually need to play less games to qualify compared to the Hex format? If you aren't Caribbean you could qualify in 12 games?

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Same as the format reported a few months ago. 8 groups of 4, 4 groups of 4, then 2 groups of 4. I like that the final phase has two more teams in it but I don't like that it's not a full round robin. I also hate there's now going to be a ton of dog games against minnows with no business wasting everyone's time. It's just Jack Warner pandering to his voting base in the Caribbean by giving them more games. Now we'll start qualifying next fall but have to begin with 6 games against the likes of Montserrat etc.

[Lord Bob]

That would actually mean fewer games for some countries, including probably Canada (given that we're usually hex-quality. Usually.)

[Grizzly]

Same as the format reported a few months ago. 8 groups of 4, 4 groups of 4, then 2 groups of 4. I like that the final phase has two more teams in it but I don't like that it's not a full round robin. I also hate there's now going to be a ton of dog games against minnows with no business wasting everyone's time. It's just Jack Warner pandering to his voting base in the Caribbean by giving them more games. Now we'll start qualifying next fall but have to begin with 6 games against the likes of Montserrat etc.

It may not be perfect and pleasing the Caribbean countries may be Warner's motivation but it is still a big improvement over the existing system both in general fairness and for Canada's chances. There is nothing wrong with playing games against minnows, every confederation except for CONMEBOL has a significant number of games against minnows in its qualification system and this additionally helps to boost the FIFA rankings of many nations. More importantly, it will be much less likely to hit a group of death until the final round. Under this system we should be making the final 8 every WCQ.

[Sam]

I like this - gives us a better chance of making the Hex and if we do we have to win less games.

[Macksam]

We need to be seeded good for the initial 4 groups of 4 teams stage. We must win this upcoming Gold Cup, no ifs ands or buts.

[Lurker]

Same as the format reported a few months ago. 8 groups of 4, 4 groups of 4, then 2 groups of 4. I like that the final phase has two more teams in it but I don't like that it's not a full round robin. I also hate there's now going to be a ton of dog games against minnows with no business wasting everyone's time. It's just Jack Warner pandering to his voting base in the Caribbean by giving them more games. Now we'll start qualifying next fall but have to begin with 6 games against the likes of Montserrat etc.

This sounds right. The article actually talks about 4 phases not 3 like the OP has listed.

[Lord Bob]

This sounds right. The article actually talks about 4 phases not 3 like the OP has listed.

Ah. In that case it's probably more games for Canada and a slightly better chance of making the final round, which is good.

[Tuscan]

I'd have to agree that winning, or at least having a place in the final of the Gold Cup, is going to be absolutely essential if we are to find ourselves in a good spot for WCQ2012. We've already dropped uncomfortably low and need to find our way to some points in order to get to a position avoiding a group of death situation. Although with the two groups of 4 system, no matter which group we get drawn into it will be somewhat of a group of death since we'll be in with either the US or Mexico, and then either Honduras or Costa Rica. This might get worse before it gets better...

[CanadianSoccerFan]

This should make the final phase very interesting with no margin for error. If you think of how Mexico squeaked through our group and then really stumbled early in the hex, a situation like that in this new format could be fatal.

[Grizzly]

Although with the two groups of 4 system, no matter which group we get drawn into it will be somewhat of a group of death since we'll be in with either the US or Mexico, and then either Honduras or Costa Rica. This might get worse before it gets better...

This will not be worse. One could get a tough group in the 2nd round but it still won't be anything comparable to the Groups of Death we have been getting in the second round. In most cases a 2nd round group will consist of one or two strong teams and two weaker teams. It is pretty hard to avoid a group of death in the final round because that is by definition what a final round is. The current Hex also contains USA and Mexico plus Honduras and Costa Rica so it is no easier than the proposed system. The only worse thing that could happen is if US and Mexico somehow ended up in the same final group but that will probably be unlikely to happen unless one of them really stinks in the 2nd round. If you are going to qualify for the WC you are going to have to face a Group of Death somewhere and in this system it would most likely only be in the final round not in the second round as in the current system.

[CanadasBest]

Interesting, but unless i'm mistaken the proposed format will ensure that the US and Mexico will never face each other in WCQ.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Interesting, but unless i'm mistaken the proposed format will ensure that the US and Mexico will never face each other in WCQ.

Still possible but unlikely. However if it does happen and Mexico and the yanks end up in the same group, you can bet your life savings on the "coincidence" that Trinidad will be in the opposite group

[the biologist]

^ ...and also bet on a similar "coincidence" that both Canada and one of Honduras or CR will end up in the "group of death" (and probably Jamaica as well), assuring TT of a great potential to a top 2 finish in the "group of life" against the likes of Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, oh and Haiti...

[jpg75]

This sounds right. The article actually talks about 4 phases not 3 like the OP has listed.

Correct. The first phase is the elimination of 3 nations (6 teams play home-away) to bring the number down to 32 (there are 35 nations in CONCACAF - though this might soon go up to 36 with the splitting of Netherlands Antilles). Then 3 group phases final 32 (8 X 4), final 16 (4 X 4) and finally final 8 (2 X 4).

[Free kick]

I like this - gives us a better chance of making the Hex and if we do we have to win less games.

The objective should be to get to play in games that matter. And, gain experience in playing games that matter because thats a big way in how you improve and progess as a side. The flaw with the current system is that, for many sides in the region (including canada), that doesn't happen and world cup soccer means one or two games played over a two to three week period every four years. The developing (or up and coming) player lose out on some valuable experience and you can build momentum to sell the game and international soccer in places like Canada or elsewhere in the region. Whats really incredible is that over the past 10 years and three WCQ cycles, Canada may have played only half dozen important games.

2000 - Can-Cub

2000 - Can-Cub

2000 - Can-Tri

2004 - Can-Gua

2004 - Can-Hon

2008 - Can-Jam

2008 - Can-Hon

All the other games either involved minnows, or were matches where Canada was already eliminated, mathematically eliminated. Or we had no hope (eg.: playing at the altitude of Azteca in 2000).

Hence you are in a catch 22 situation, how do you improve when you dont play matches that count. There is also the matter of finding the right chemistry with the players and lineup which you just cant do when its do or die right from the start.

Unfortortuately, this latest proposal does nothing to address any of these problems. It just increases the final round to eight teams. Everything else is the same.

[redhat]

^ ...and also bet on a similar "coincidence" that both Canada and one of Honduras or CR will end up in the "group of death" (and probably Jamaica as well), assuring TT of a great potential to a top 2 finish in the "group of life" against the likes of Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, oh and Haiti...

That thought had crossed my mind, too. Hmm, let's predict the groups: A) Mexico USA C) CAN/HON/CRC D) T&T/St.Kitts/SVG

Something like that ...

[Free kick]

Correct. The first phase is the elimination of 3 nations (6 teams play home-away) to bring the number down to 32 (there are 35 nations in CONCACAF - though this might soon go up to 36 with the splitting of Netherlands Antilles). Then 3 group phases final 32 (8 X 4), final 16 (4 X 4) and finally final 8 (2 X 4).

The goal should have been to eliminate rounds, not add rounds. The best scenario would have been a first round whereby you bring the number down to 24 (not 32). Then you have a round of 24 ( six grps of four). And a final round of 12 (two grps of six).

[rdroze]

Just to get an idea of what this might look like, I did a sample draw using the latest FIFA rankings. There's no opinion here, I'm just assuming that higher-ranked teams always beat lower-ranked teams, and that teams are seeded and assigned to groups according to their ranking (no random draw).

Preliminary Round:

St. Lucia - US Virgin Islands

British Virgin Islands - Anguilla

Aruba - Montserrat

1st Group Stage:

Group A

USA

Canada

Grenada

Bahamas

Group B

Trinidad and Tobago

Suriname

St. Kitts and Nevis

Dominica

Group C

Honduras

Cuba

Bermuda

Belize

Group D

El Salvador

Barbados

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Turks and Caicos Islands

Group E

Mexico

Guatemala

Nicaragua

Dominican Republic

Group F

Jamaica

Antigua and Barbuda

Netherlands Antilles

St. Lucia

Group G

Costa Rica

Guyana

Puerto Rico

British Virgin Islands

Group H

Panama

Haiti

Cayman Islands

Aruba

2nd Group Stage:

Group A

USA

Trinidad and Tobago

Canada

Suriname

Group B

Honduras

El Salvador

Cuba

Barbados

Group C

Mexico

Jamaica

Guatemala

Antigua and Barbuda

Group D

Costa Rica

Panama

Guyana

Haiti

3rd Group Stage:

Group A

USA

Honduras

Trinidad and Tobago

El Salvador

Group B

Mexico

Costa Rica

Jamaica

Panama

[the biologist]

1st Group Stage:

Group A

USA

Canada

Grenada

Bahamas

Group H

Panama

Haiti

Cayman Islands

Aruba

2nd Group Stage:

Group A

USA

Trinidad and Tobago

Canada

Suriname

Group D

Costa Rica

Panama

Guyana

Haiti

Ouch !!! That's where we see we absolutely need some positive results in the upcoming friendlies ! The goal here is to get up around (and at least at the same time !) the 8th rank and hope for a Panamaesque scenario/draw (^ the one you "imagined") giving us right away a place in the final 8. We DON'T want to be ranked 9th. No, we don't.

Question: is there a reseeding between the rounds to be in accordance with the new rankings released every month or once the seeding is done before round 1 it becomes a lock and the seeds don't change till the end of the WCQ ? Just wondering.

[Lurker]

I hope there is reseeding, you can see from the example rdroze gave there's a chance you could have the same team in your group for all 3 group phases.

[masster]

While this proposed format may be better, there is still no news on how groups will be drawn, which was/is the largest problem to begin with.

[Gian-Luca]

1st Group Stage:

Group A

USA

Canada

Grenada

Bahamas

Group B

Trinidad and Tobago

Suriname

St. Kitts and Nevis

Dominica

Group C

Honduras

Cuba

Bermuda

Belize

Group D

El Salvador

Barbados

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Turks and Caicos Islands

Group E

Mexico

Guatemala

Nicaragua

Dominican Republic

Group F

Jamaica

Antigua and Barbuda

Netherlands Antilles

St. Lucia

Group G

Costa Rica

Guyana

Puerto Rico

British Virgin Islands

Group H

Panama

Haiti

Cayman Islands

Aruba

I'm struggling to figure out what the point of this particular round would be. Why is Concacaf adding more rounds and matches between giants and minnows?

[the biologist]

I'm struggling to figure out what the point of this particular round would be. Why is Concacaf adding more rounds and matches between giants and minnows?

At least, that will boost the ranking points of the top 16 CONCACAF teams (Warner's team included BTW). These teams will then "look better" internationally speaking. That could help us in future WC draws.