FIFA Locks CONCACAF at 3.5 Spots

[narduch]

Europe currently has 11 of the 16 top-ranked teams in the world. And 18 of the 32 top-ranked teams.

I would buy this arguement if the formula to calculate the FIFA rankings wasn't designed with a bias in favour of Europe.

[nfitz]

I would buy this arguement if the formula to calculate the FIFA rankings wasn't designed with a bias in favour of Europe.

What formula do you propose. ELO also shows 18 of the 32 top-ranked teams being in UEFA. Though not the same 18, and also has 3 from Asia, rather than 1.

[RS]

The World Cup definitely needs more teams like Greece in it...

[nfitz]

Greece outperformed several other teams. The poorest performing European teams were Italy and France ... however, it's hard to think that they shouldn't be there when teams such as North Korea are there.

[Cannes]

Here are some of the European teams that did not made it to 2010:

Strong teams:

Russia Croatia Turkey

Russia ,Turkey, Croatia all had a very good chance of actually making it to quarters and maybe even more with some luck.

Bosnia Ireland Scotland Norway Sweden Hungary Belgium Finland Czech Rep, Bulgaria, Ukraine...

The rest are all around Mexico-USA level. Some slightly better some slightly weaker.

I think it is very hard to argue for reducing European spots.

Europe is under rep./ if anything there should be more European spots.

Asia is over rep/ I think we can all agree

Africa and Concaf is fair imo. Sorry guys!!

Oceania is a joke. I think we can all agree

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Here are some of the European teams that did not made it to 2010:

Strong teams:

Russia Croatia Turkey

Russia ,Turkey, Croatia all had a very good chance of actually making it to quarters and maybe even more with some luck.

Bosnia Ireland Scotland Norway Sweden Hungary Belgium Finland Czech Rep, Bulgaria, Ukraine...

The rest are all around Mexico-USA level. Some slightly better some slightly weaker.

I think it is very hard to argue for reducing European spots.

Europe is under rep./ if anything there should be more European spots.

Asia is over rep/ I think we can all agree

Africa and Concaf is fair imo. Sorry guys!!

Oceania is a joke. I think we can all agree

I pretty much agree. I think it's another reason why the Euro will still be a great tournament with 24 teams

[Free kick]

Another way of looking at this debate over who is over represented and who is under represented is by looking at how each of the weakest performers at this WC from each region fared in relation to one another. Having just seen the Hon-Sui game on "Rogers on demand" ( trust me this was painful one to watch and easily the least entertaining game of all), I can say that I have seen all the matches involving Concacaf sides.

Honduras was not good in this tournament. But if you compare them to other last minute qualifiers from each region, they come across looking favourably if you were to compare points and goal diff. Moreso considering that they were in a pretty tough group. They certainly looked better than than North Korea and Algeria and by that measure they also stack up well against France. Although we all know that France far far better than their numbers.

Of the final qualifiers in each region, world cup after world cup, the Asian representative is easily and consistently the worst performer. And by that same measure, the third or fourth place qualifier in Concacaf stacks up favorably against even the the worst African side's performance. Costa Rica has often been one of those (for lack of better word) last minute qualifiers in past WC and they have occasionally advanced to the knockout stage. So, you cant just look at the top sides at the world cup and extrapolate that to determine whats a fair distribution of regional spots.

Similarly, they need at more than just the current WC. For example, this has been a pretty good WC for South america but previously, I didn't see anything noteworthy in recent WC aside from Brazil and Argentina.

[Edgar]

Here it is: http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/fifa-world-cup/all-whites/3858771/All-Whites-keen-to-mix-it-with-Asias-best

Oh, and my mistake... the OFC support the proposed change and have suggested it to FIFA. I'm pretty confident this will happen.

The same idea - having the OFC winner join AFC's final round was actually accepted by FIFA in 2006, but (I think) AFC changed it to a play-off.

See this: http://www.fifa.com/aboutfifa/federation/releases/newsid=108198.html

The preliminary competition for the 2010 FIFA World Cup™ will be played in the confederations as follows:

- Oceania: in three phases, as for 2006. The first phase will be combined with the South Pacific Games 2007 and the OFC Nations Cup 2008, and the winning team will enter a group in Asia's final round.

[Rivaldo]

Here it is: http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/fifa-world-cup/all-whites/3858771/All-Whites-keen-to-mix-it-with-Asias-best

Oh, and my mistake... the OFC support the proposed change and have suggested it to FIFA. I'm pretty confident this will happen.

Thanks. It could happen, but the article says the status quo is the most likely option for 2014.

Even if it does happen, the only difference it would make for CONCACAF is that we'd never have a playoff vs. AFC, unless the combined AFC/OFC were to gain or lose half a spot.

[Grizzly]

Here are some of the European teams that did not made it to 2010:

Strong teams:

Russia Croatia Turkey

Russia ,Turkey, Croatia all had a very good chance of actually making it to quarters and maybe even more with some luck.

Bosnia Ireland Scotland Norway Sweden Hungary Belgium Finland Czech Rep, Bulgaria, Ukraine...

The rest are all around Mexico-USA level. Some slightly better some slightly weaker.

I think it is very hard to argue for reducing European spots.

Europe is under rep./ if anything there should be more European spots.

Asia is over rep/ I think we can all agree

Africa and Concaf is fair imo. Sorry guys!!

Oceania is a joke. I think we can all agree

Sorry guy but this is completely wrong. Russia, Croatia and Turkey have a World Cup attack and below par defenders. All 3 are very inconsistent teams. They are better than a few of the European teams that did qualify but if UEFA can't devise a decent qualifying process who's fault is that. Having two crap teams like Switzerland and Greece qualify out of the same group without beating any good teams was ridiculous. Despite both getting lucky wins, neither looked like they belonged in the tournament. People are saying Honduras had a poor tournament but in reality they got unlucky to be in a group with two top teams who play the same style as they do. The Swiss style of 11 men back was much more likely to produce a surprise lucky result than a team actually trying to play football. Head to head, Honduras looked a better side than the Swiss did.

Your second group does not have teams that are at the level of US/Mexico because they are not consistently good like US and Mexico. These are countries that go through cycles in which they have better than average players and then drop back to their usual level. At times they are as good as US/Mexico and at other times they are very mediocre.

Each succesive World Cup produces a larger number of European teams that are mediocre to poor even though the top teams do well. The rest of the world is catching up at least to the point where their second tier teams are reaching the level of the European second tier teams. There is no longer any justification for giving Europe so many guaranteed spots especially since the World Cup is supposed to be a World Cup not a Euro plus Cup. It is supposed to promote the game in all of the world and bring together the various cultures of the world.

Having 9 guaranteed spots at the moment would be fine, 13 is too much. What I think should be done is that the 4 European playoff spots should become half spots. Those teams who win the European playoffs should then play a playoff with a team from another confederation. Each additional federation would get a .5 spot for the playoff (with Asia absorbing Oceana). If the European teams are as good as you say they will win the playoffs. I suspect sometimes they will win and sometimes not.

[Califax]

Sorry guy but this is completely wrong. Russia, Croatia and Turkey have a World Cup attack and below par defenders. All 3 are very inconsistent teams. They are better than a few of the European teams that did qualify but if UEFA can't devise a decent qualifying process who's fault is that. Having two crap teams like Switzerland and Greece qualify out of the same group without beating any good teams was ridiculous. Despite both getting lucky wins, neither looked like they belonged in the tournament. People are saying Honduras had a poor tournament but in reality they got unlucky to be in a group with two top teams who play the same style as they do. The Swiss style of 11 men back was much more likely to produce a surprise lucky result than a team actually trying to play football. Head to head, Honduras looked a better side than the Swiss did.

Your second group does not have teams that are at the level of US/Mexico because they are not consistently good like US and Mexico. These are countries that go through cycles in which they have better than average players and then drop back to their usual level. At times they are as good as US/Mexico and at other times they are very mediocre.

Each succesive World Cup produces a larger number of European teams that are mediocre to poor even though the top teams do well. The rest of the world is catching up at least to the point where their second tier teams are reaching the level of the European second tier teams. There is no longer any justification for giving Europe so many guaranteed spots especially since the World Cup is supposed to be a World Cup not a Euro plus Cup. It is supposed to promote the game in all of the world and bring together the various cultures of the world.

Having 9 guaranteed spots at the moment would be fine, 13 is too much. What I think should be done is that the 4 European playoff spots should become half spots. Those teams who win the European playoffs should then play a playoff with a team from another confederation. Each additional federation would get a .5 spot for the playoff (with Asia absorbing Oceana). If the European teams are as good as you say they will win the playoffs. I suspect sometimes they will win and sometimes not.

I'd break all of this down into an arguement, but it would be a waste of time. You put way too much stock into Mexico and USA as compared to scotland / norway / sweden and your points about Croatia are well off the mark. Everyone should be fine with what they have. We certainly should be in CONCACAF. I think we should have 3 and South America 5, but other than that, I wouldn't change a thing.

We need to stop passing the buck and get our act together.

[coppercanuck]

From the "hair brained scheme" file ... NZL moves from OFC and joins Asia (leaves 10 OFC teams) and CONCACAF spins off its Caribbean members into another confederation with CONCACAF's 0.5 spot. The OFC and Caribbean are then combined for the one spot. Think of the dream final; New Caledonia v. Trinidad & Tobago! or worse; American Samoa v. Anguilla!

[Grizzly]

I'd break all of this down into an arguement, but it would be a waste of time. You put way too much stock into Mexico and USA as compared to scotland / norway / sweden and your points about Croatia are well off the mark. Everyone should be fine with what they have. We certainly should be in CONCACAF. I think we should have 3 and South America 5, but other than that, I wouldn't change a thing.

We need to stop passing the buck and get our act together.

Are you F'in serious. Scotland? This is one of the teams I have supported for years and they have been nothing but crap and utter disappointment. They haven't qualified for the last 3 WC's or even the last 3 Euros. When they have qualified they have never gotten out of the first round and have never won more than one game in any WC and those are on good years. The last WC they played in was in 98 and they finished in 27th spot. Scotland is a crap soccer nation and I say that even though every time qualification comes around I think, "this time is going to be different." As bad as Scotland is, Norway has been even worse with the exception of 1998. Sweden has had some success but very up and down like many of the 2nd tier Euro teams as I stated. Croatia likewise had one good WC in 98 followed by two poor ones followed by not qualifying for the last one. This is hardly a great record. Mexico by contrast has made it past the group stage in the last 5 WC's. The US has been less consistent but has made it to the second round in 3 of the last 5 WC's including making it to the quarterfinals in 2002 (and losing to Germany on a blown reffing call).

If any confederation is to have 40% of the guaranteed spots then they really have to be a dominant federation not just with their top teams but with the other teams they are sending as well. In recent tournaments the worst team in the tournament has been just as likely to be European as from another confederation. In the past there just weren't enough quality teams in the world outside of Europe and South America so these federations got more spots. Now the rest of the world is at least catching up to the 2nd tier of European teams. The top teams from every federation should get a guaranteed spot, the 2nd tier should have to fight for their spot with the 2nd tier of other confederations. This is not passing the buck, this is making things fair. If the European teams are truly better they will win their playoffs. Nor am I claiming Canada got screwed by the unfair distribution since we have sucked in recent WCQ campaigns. It has been teams like Honduras and Costa Rica who have gotten screwed. Don't forget Costa Rica only lost to one of the semifinal teams today by one goal in a playoff.

My distribution would be this:

Host=1 spot

UEFA=9 spots and 5 half spots (two against CONMEBOL and one against each of the other federations)

Conmebol=4 spots and 3 half spots (two against UEFA and one against CONCACAF)

CAF=4 spots and 2 half spots (one against UEFA and one against Asia)

Concacaf=3 spots and 2 half spots (one against UEFA and one against CONMEBOL)

Asia and Oceania combined into one federation=4 spots and 2 half spots (one against UEFA and one against CAF)

[Edgar]

If any confederation is to have 40% of the guaranteed spots then they really have to be a dominant federation not just with their top teams but with the other teams they are sending as well. In recent tournaments the worst team in the tournament has been just as likely to be European as from another confederation.

Actually, in my opinion UEFA should keep their allocation for 2014.

Allocating World Cup slots: Is there a better way?

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Are you F'in serious. Scotland? This is one of the teams I have supported for years and they have been nothing but crap and utter disappointment. They haven't qualified for the last 3 WC's or even the last 3 Euros. When they have qualified they have never gotten out of the first round and have never won more than one game in any WC and those are on good years. The last WC they played in was in 98 and they finished in 27th spot. Scotland is a crap soccer nation and I say that even though every time qualification comes around I think, "this time is going to be different." As bad as Scotland is, Norway has been even worse with the exception of 1998. Sweden has had some success but very up and down like many of the 2nd tier Euro teams as I stated. Croatia likewise had one good WC in 98 followed by two poor ones followed by not qualifying for the last one. This is hardly a great record. Mexico by contrast has made it past the group stage in the last 5 WC's. The US has been less consistent but has made it to the second round in 3 of the last 5 WC's including making it to the quarterfinals in 2002 (and losing to Germany on a blown reffing call).

If any confederation is to have 40% of the guaranteed spots then they really have to be a dominant federation not just with their top teams but with the other teams they are sending as well. In recent tournaments the worst team in the tournament has been just as likely to be European as from another confederation. In the past there just weren't enough quality teams in the world outside of Europe and South America so these federations got more spots. Now the rest of the world is at least catching up to the 2nd tier of European teams. The top teams from every federation should get a guaranteed spot, the 2nd tier should have to fight for their spot with the 2nd tier of other confederations. This is not passing the buck, this is making things fair. If the European teams are truly better they will win their playoffs. Nor am I claiming Canada got screwed by the unfair distribution since we have sucked in recent WCQ campaigns. It has been teams like Honduras and Costa Rica who have gotten screwed. Don't forget Costa Rica only lost to one of the semifinal teams today by one goal in a playoff.

My distribution would be this:

Host=1 spot

UEFA=9 spots and 5 half spots (two against CONMEBOL and one against each of the other federations)

Conmebol=4 spots and 3 half spots (two against UEFA and one against CONCACAF)

CAF=4 spots and 2 half spots (one against UEFA and one against Asia)

Concacaf=3 spots and 2 half spots (one against UEFA and one against CONMEBOL)

Asia and Oceania combined into one federation=4 spots and 2 half spots (one against UEFA and one against CAF)

I like this. Takes the whining out of WC spots and lets the confederations decide it on the field

[Cannes]

Ok this is a long post but not a lot of reading: I am not totally against your distribution btw.

You have some good points Grizzly but I think you are over estimating USA/Mexico and under estimating Europe.

Here are 8 European teams who are imho as good or better than US/Mexico

Croatia (not that inconsistant I dissagree)

Czech Rep (fairly consistant quality team)

Turkey (very inconsistant but a suprise tourny team when they make it)

Russia (again inconsistant I agree, but quality team)

Bosnia (very young impressive team their future is bright)

Ireland (the only reason they are not in the world cup is Thierry Henry's left hand)

Sweden (Quality team, bad team spirit poor ibrahimovic)

Ukraine (Okay I am pushing it )

If we put USA and Mexico through a European or South American Qualifier group...

Brazil

Argentina

Uruguay

Paraguay

Chile

USA

Mexico

Ecuador

Colombia

USA and Mexico wouldn't get a free ticket to world cup in a group like this.

Put Croatia and Russia in ConCaf and they would qualify for every world cup just like USA and Mexico.

Croatia

Russia (or Czech Rep, Turkey, Sweden, Ireland etc...)

Honduras

Costa Rica

Canada

Piece of cake!

I absolutely agree that USA got much better over the years but they have some way to go still, btw: Mexico didn't improve much compared to history.

Lets not over estimate them because they qualify more often than European teams.

Honduras Canada Costa Rica Trinidad all have some way to go.

So right now FIFA is doing okay but if we are absolutely fair to skill level it should only give 3 spots to Asia and 3 to Africa (maybe half seeds). Increase Europe or keep it the same! because Europe continues to dominate the game

The drawback is it will be as you said Europe/South America + others cup but that's fair considering these two especially Europe still dominate the game.

Why give USA and Mexico guaranteed spots and not good European teams who are at the same level and arguably better?

http://www.tunisiaonlinenews.com/?p=42314

[Cannes]

Short version

I personally want to see the world best 32 team in World cup.

I dont care if they are all from (in a fantasy world) Europe or South America if they are the best 32 teams in the world than they deserve to be there.

On the other hand if you think world cup loses its meaning if we dont get teams from all corners of the world than I can understand that. For me world cup is about skill the best teams but if you want to see a Cultural festival aside from just best of soccer... Fine! I respect that.

Down to personal preference.

[rico]

what will be the play off games is it the same as this year or the doing it like Germany 06?

[narduch]

Short version

I personally want to see the world best 32 team in World cup.

I dont care if they are all from (in a fantasy world) Europe or South America if they are the best 32 teams in the world than they deserve to be there.

On the other hand if you think world cup loses its meaning if we dont get teams from all corners of the world than I can understand that. For me world cup is about skill the best teams but if you want to see a Cultural festival aside from just best of soccer... Fine! I respect that.

Down to personal preference.

But sometimes the 'best' teams get upset. What happens then? Why not just have FIFA form a committee than and pick the 32 best teams if that's what you want.

It seems like people want Europe to have more spots to protect the traditional powers from having a bad qualifying campaign and not making it. Its not every other confederation's fault if good teams don't qualify from Europe. UEFA needs to find a more balanced way to decide on their qualifiers.

Generally speaking European qualifying is a joke. Most European teams qualify having faced only 1 decent opponent.