KAS Posted June 4, 2010 Share Posted June 4, 2010 Hi, just thought I would have some fun with some VERY SIMPLE math. I thought it might be fun to see how these basic projections hold. Ok, after ten games, TFC has a 5-4-1 record for 16 points, so they are averaging 1.6pts/game. On current pace, they are headed for 48 points. That probably wouldn't be quite enough to win the league, but they would very easily make the playoffs. What makes the numbers even more interesting is the record for home games and road games. Only four of TFC's games so far have been at home, where they are a perfect 4-0-0 for 12 points (3pts/game), while their six road games have a 1-4-1 record for 4 points (0.67pts/game). These numbers project over the course of the season to 45 points at home, and 10 points on the road, for a total of 55 points. That does give you a shot at winning the league. While it is unrealistic to expect TFC to be perfect at home all season (and I'm really not trying to jinx them for this weekend's game against KC), the club will likely do better on the road than they have so far. TFC was in transition at the start of the season and were not nearly as good as they are now. Add to that, the first two games of the season were on the road against Columbus and New England - two places where TFC always gets killed. The next two road games were the two "altitude games" against Colorado and Salt Lake, which are often tough. It was after this that the club got a road point against the best team in the league (LA) and a win over the improving San Jose. With the possible exception of the last one, these are all tough road games. The reason why I point this out is because this year MLS is finally using a balanced schedule where each team plays every other team twice in a home/away format. Once a team has faced a tough road game (ex: Columbus), it doesn't have to go back there again during the regular season. Looking at the road games TFC have had so far, it would appear that TFC has already played many of the tougher road games, with (hopefully) easier games at DC, KC, and Philly still to come. Since they have played four road games against Western Conference teams, and only two against Eastern Conference teams, the future travel demands will be easier than for some others. TFC will not be perfect at home all season and get 45 home points, but they might be able to make up for it by doing better than ten road points. Any "bonus" points on the road offsets any disappointments at home. Since these early projections have TFC well ahead of the required pace to make the playoffs, a short slump could be tolerated, but it is interesting to see just how well TFC could finish in the league standings if there is no serious slump and the projections hold. It is very early, but I just thought I would start a thread with some numbers to see if I can spark a debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyslexic nam Posted June 4, 2010 Share Posted June 4, 2010 Don't want to start a new thread, and this is just a bit more positive press on the TFC front. http://msn.foxsports.com/foxsoccer/usa/story/costigan-mlspr-derosario-leading-the-way-for-tfc Nice to see DeRo getting some praise south of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmcmurph Posted June 4, 2010 Share Posted June 4, 2010 It Cann happen Seriously the CanTora combo have made your team contenders. I think this fourth year will see TFC in the playoffs. An excellent goalie with a very competent set of CBs and you are finally building from the back out which is the winning strategy. You have those 2 to thank for it as they have really got their goalie's confidence and as a trio they are saving you lots of goals. Scoring is fun but goals against is the true measure of a team. Look at LA. When DB first joined they were #1 in goals for, dead last in goals against and missed the playoffs! Keep it up and good luck in the CCL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKottonmouthed1555362307 Posted June 4, 2010 Share Posted June 4, 2010 Great thread and many great points. I also tend to think they can get close to 50 points which would be fantastic. I'm really liking what I'm seeing from TFC this year and after a few weeks where it looked like the same old song and dance. It seems the guys on this board who weren't panicking were spot on this team just need more time to gel together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Ed Posted June 4, 2010 Share Posted June 4, 2010 It Cann happen Seriously the CanTora combo have made your team contenders. I think this fourth year will see TFC in the playoffs. An excellent goalie with a very competent set of CBs and you are finally building from the back out which is the winning strategy. You have those 2 to thank for it as they have really got their goalie's confidence and as a trio they are saving you lots of goals. Scoring is fun but goals against is the true measure of a team. Look at LA. When DB first joined they were #1 in goals for, dead last in goals against and missed the playoffs! Keep it up and good luck in the CCL. David Bailey????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKottonmouthed1555362307 Posted June 4, 2010 Share Posted June 4, 2010 David Bailey????? Nay, Dumpster Baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmcmurph Posted June 5, 2010 Share Posted June 5, 2010 Great thread and many great points. I also tend to think they can get close to 50 points which would be fantastic. I'm really liking what I'm seeing from TFC this year and after a few weeks where it looked like the same old song and dance. It seems the guys on this board who weren't panicking were spot on this team just need more time to gel together. I don't think it was more time to gell. It was getting rid of Garcia from the CB position and putting in Adrian Cann. The turnaround clearly started on the back row. TFC still struggled to score and had mostly 1 player scoring but they stopped the bleeding and ground out a few results. Once the back was in place the other pieces started falling in place. Panic? Damn rights. The way they looked in the first 3 weeks was just dreadful on the back row. I've seldom seen so many blunders by a defense that cost them several games. It isn't time to gel it was confidence in the people behind them or in Frei's case the 2 in front of him. I still wince for TFC fans when I see Garcia on the field. Fortunately they have turned it around and Adrian Cann was the biggest reason. Lets hope they can make the playoffs this year. That would be a great boost to the sport in Canada and especially in our media. PS. DB = Donovan's Buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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