Saviola7 Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 So I just remembered to check to see if Begovic did indeed stay behind in England rather than show up for the Bosnian friendly. In fact he did. So I thought of a little game those of us into self torture could engage in. Here's the deal: Every time a potential player doesn't play for Canada, his odds go down. Every time said player doesn't play for one of their other potential suitors, his odds go up. Off the top of my head: Jonathon de Guzman: 5% If he still isn't tied by the end of EURO 2012, he might reconsider his choice, but that's a long time away. Asmir Begovic: 10% Seems clear that he has made his choice, but I won't rule anyone out until I see a scoresheet. Daniel Fernandes: 15% Still not cap-tied, but I think things will have to look rather bleak for him to come back. Jacob Lensky: 50% Given his most recent comments, we may find him declining a few calls, but I don't see the Czech Republic beating down his door. Steven Vitoria: 50% Not on the Portuguese map at all. David Hoilett: 65% I'll give him the benefit of the doubt since we haven't heard much from him. Any others? Thoughts? * - used probabilities instead of odds ... sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finchster Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Jonathon de Guzman: 0% Assuming he has a good year. 20% if he has a bad year. Asmir Begovic: 0% Daniel Fernandes: 0% Jacob Lensky: 50% Steven Vitoria: 70% (i don't think he will make the Portugal team) David Hoilett: 50% Haven't heard anything from him either way so call it a coin flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Asmir Begovic: 0% Jonathon de Guzman: .000001% Playing for Canada would be admitting failure, not sure his ego could handle that. His bros. is our only hope and we saw how much pull he has. Daniel Fernandes: 80% He's the #4 keeper right now and will be 5th string soon. Jacob Lensky: 95% He'll come around. Steven Vitoria: 99% Has about a 1% chance of ever playing for Portugal. Told Dasovic he'd consider Canada. David Hoilett: 80% If he chooses Jamaica he's an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Beaver Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Ha, lots of fun! The Beaver: 0% (He'd choose Canada, but if Corazzin can no longer make the team, then who'd want these old bones?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
youllneverwalkalone Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 The sad thing is that both JDG2 and Hoilett seem to be saying that they'd rather not play international football than play for Canada. Still, my odds are a little different: Begovic = 0% as he will likely play for Bosnia Fernandes = 20% as he could play for Portugal Vittoria = 49% if he cracks Porto, who knows? JDG2 = 51% as he isn't good enough to play for the Holland A squad Hoilett = 51% as Canada must be better than nothing? Lensky = 100% who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuscan Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Begovic: 25% we don't really know yet, it all comes down to the upcoming qualifying matches, but Hart didn't instill much hope. JDG2: 0% and it's not gonna be alright, not for him, he's gone. Fernandes: 25% once again we don't really know, and since he hasn't really appeared on the radar for the Nats, I'm not optimistic though. Lensky: 60% kind of like a percentage of precipitation, this usually means it's going to rain, but there's still a decent chance he could suit up for us. Vitoria: 50% really comes down to how things go for him in Portugal, if he performs well and somehow becomes popular they might snatch him. Hoilett: 90% we'll actually see success this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rivaldo Posted August 20, 2009 Share Posted August 20, 2009 So these are your estimated probabilities of them playing for Canada? The thread title sucks. Those are some low numbers for Begovic. Hart's comment "I think he's leaning towards Bosnia..." is concerning, but that's not much to go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saviola7 Posted August 27, 2009 Author Share Posted August 27, 2009 Update: Begovic called up, none of the others have been called up (although I couldn't find the selection for the Czech rep). Asmir Begovic: 7% Jonathon de Guzman: 8% Daniel Fernandes: 18% Jacob Lensky: 53% Steven Vitoria: 53% David Hoilett: 65% (Jamaica has no matches scheduled) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saviola7 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 After September and October WCQ, Begovic's been cap tied: Jonathon de Guzman: 10% - Holland played a match, but since he was injured, it's tough to say what that means for him Daniel Fernandes: 25% - Not called up for either of Portugal's matches Jacob Lensky: 55% - Not called up for either of the Czech Rep's matches ... I'm not sure if it's a good thing or a bad thing that they didn't qualify either. Steven Vitoria: 60% - Not called up for either of Portugal's matches David Hoilett: 65% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Jono was injured after the last Dutch qualifier in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macksam Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 quote:Originally posted by jpg75 Jono was injured after the last Dutch qualifier in September. And the implication is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 I thought Lensky was Slovak? Sorry. Should read - I thought Lensky's dad was born in Slovakia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Macksam And the implication is? That he was not selected based on merit, and not because he was injured. Some other young players were selected and he wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canso Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Haven't been here in a while so lost touch mebbe but do you know how sad a read this is[V] Hoping for a player to fail just enough so we can claim him for our own? That's crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footscray Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Was just commenting on Jono's most recent serious injury in the other thread, looks like he will not be considered again for several months and considering he wasn't selected when healthy I think that pretty much rules him out for the World Cup for Oranje barring a miracle. I thought he would have been called up by now with his old Feyenoord coach at the helm, pretty bleak international career so far. I don't get the impression he would ever consider Canada though but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vigilante Posted October 17, 2009 Share Posted October 17, 2009 In some ways, Jonathan de Guzmán got what he deserved. I have absolutley no problem </u> players taking the better path to development and stardom, but sometimes you need to walk into situations with your eyes wide open. De Guzmán was told that he "was in the future" for the Dutch national team but their star wingers/midfielders are young: Robben, Sneijder, and Schaars are 25, Van Persie is 26, Babel is 22 and their oldest winger Kuyt shows no signs of slowing down. I read two years ago De Guzmán's main competition at winger was Eljero Elia (same age) and Ibrahim Afellay who is 1 year older. De Guzmán has been the source of much speculation but the fact is he seems to be #3 or #4 out of these thus far. Elia has had an incredible season with Hamburg. At the beginning, he played four competition games for HSV Hamburg and was elected Man of the Match in two. Even coach Bert van Marwijk is high on him. He is good friends with teammate Romeo Castelen who is becoming better and seems to be recovering from his injuries. Lastly, its one of the best players in the Dutch league, Ibrahim Afellay, who went from talented youngster (Nasri) to superstar in Holland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squizz1402635577 Posted October 17, 2009 Share Posted October 17, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Vigilante De Guzmán was told that he "was in the future" for the Dutch national team but their star wingers/midfielders are young: Robben, Sneijder, and Schaars are 25, Van Persie is 26, Babel is 22 and their oldest Cripes, I didn't realize Robben was only 25. Suddenly I feel better about my own hairline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vigilante Posted October 17, 2009 Share Posted October 17, 2009 quote:Originally posted by squizz Cripes, I didn't realize Robben was only 25. Suddenly I feel better about my own hairline. Its worst for Cambiasso, at age 25 years old in World Cup 2006. Thankfully, he looks good with a shaved head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saviola7 Posted November 20, 2009 Author Share Posted November 20, 2009 After November WCQ: Jonathon de Guzman: 12% - Holland played a match, but since he was injured, it's tough to say what that means for him Daniel Fernandes: 29% - Not called up for either of Portugal's matches Jacob Lensky: 0.0001% - It's possible that the paperwork didn't make it through? Who knows as he didn't dress. Steven Vitoria: 62% - Not called up for either of Portugal's matches David Hoilett: 68% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finchster Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 quote:Originally posted by finchster Jonathon de Guzman: 0% Assuming he has a good year. 20% if he has a bad year. Asmir Begovic: 0% Daniel Fernandes: 0% Jacob Lensky: 50% Steven Vitoria: 70% (i don't think he will make the Portugal team) David Hoilett: 50% Haven't heard anything from him either way so call it a coin flip I will do this again Jonathon de Guzman: 10% (little hope) <s>Asmir Begovic: 0%</s> Daniel Fernandes: 10% (Wasn't called to their matches against Bosina I will put this percentage up if he doesn't get called to the world cup) <s>Jacob Lensky: 0%</s>(I fliped a coin and I was wrong) Steven Vitoria: 70% (I haven't heard anything in a while, hart give him a call) David Hoilett: 30% (got called by Hart and did not come down 20%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 quote:Originally posted by jpg75 Asmir Begovic: 0% Jonathon de Guzman: .000001% Playing for Canada would be admitting failure, not sure his ego could handle that. His bros. is our only hope and we saw how much pull he has. Daniel Fernandes: 80% He's the #4 keeper right now and will be 5th string soon. Jacob Lensky: 95% He'll come around. Steven Vitoria: 99% Has about a 1% chance of ever playing for Portugal. Told Dasovic he'd consider Canada. David Hoilett: 80% If he chooses Jamaica he's an idiot. <s>Asmir Begovic: 0%</s> Jonathon de Guzman: 1% His injury might put a damper on any moves to big clubs. Still not sure he'd play for us, even if his bros. tries to talk him into it. Daniel Fernandes: 80% Not even starting at Bochum anymore, he'd fit right in with all our other keepers. <s>Jacob Lensky: 95% He'll come around.</s> Ooops. Steven Vitoria: 99.9% Has about a 0.1% chance of ever playing for Portugal. Told Dasovic he'd consider Canada. David Hoilett: 80% He's talking to Hart, but still used an excuse to not play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finchster Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 quote:Originally posted by jpg75 <s>Asmir Begovic: 0%</s> Jonathon de Guzman: 1% His injury might put a damper on any moves to big clubs. Still not sure he'd play for us, even if his bros. tries to talk him into it. Daniel Fernandes: 80% Not even starting at Bochum anymore, he'd fit right in with all our other keepers.<s>Jacob Lensky: 95% He'll come around.</s> Ooops. Steven Vitoria: 99.9% Has about a 0.1% chance of ever playing for Portugal. Told Dasovic he'd consider Canada. David Hoilett: 80% He's talking to Hart, but still used an excuse to not play. The problem with rating Fernandes so high is that he is a goalkeeper and only 26, he still has many years before he peaks. While he might suit up for Canada I can only imagine it being 4-5 years from now and a lot can happen in that time. Hart should be calling this guy non stop, we need a goalkeeper bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nedved9 Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 JDG 10% The fact he has not started a game for the Dutch puts a smile on my face. Lensky. Who the F--k cares. What a confused individual. Hoilett 90% why would he play for Jamaica when they are ranked lower than Canada? Steven Vittoria. 90% He will never get call to Portugal. Fernandes 75% the fact that he is not starting regurly for Bochum he should consider Canada. Portugal seem pretty solid in Goalies. What irrates me the most about these guys is they have a chance to put Canada on the soccer map if they play for someone else they would just be average international players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finchster Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 quote:Originally posted by nedved9 JDG 10% The fact he has not started a game for the Dutch puts a smile on my face. Lensky. Who the F--k cares. What a confused individual. Hoilett 90% why would he play for Jamaica when they are ranked lower than Canada? Steven Vittoria. 90% He will never get call to Portugal. Fernandes 75% the fact that he is not starting regurly for Bochum he should consider Canada. Portugal seem pretty solid in Goalies. What irrates me the most about these guys is they have a chance to put Canada on the soccer map if they play for someone else they would just be average international players. David Hoilett is creating options I think he will hold out to get English citizenship and see where his career is and keep his options open. I thought it was foolish but the fact that he rejected both Canada and Jamaica on different occasions makes me think he is keeping his options open for this reason. He is 19 right now he has a few years to decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearcatSA Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 quote:Originally posted by finchster David Hoilett is creating options I think he will hold out to get English citizenship and see where his career is and keep his options open. I thought it was foolish but the fact that he rejected both Canada and Jamaica on different occasions makes me think he is keeping his options open for this reason. He is 19 right now he has a few years to decide. I think you are spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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