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Aug 4: TFC @ Puerto Rico (R)


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^ I've heard the Grey Cup called a lot of things, but can't say I've ever heard it mentioned as a major North American professional sports championship". Can't say the PCHL/WCHL/WHL either.

I was only comparing the three cities but if you want to widen it kudos to Edmonton as well, and probably the Ottawa Silver Seven.

I also don't remember Vancouver winning more than a single NASL championship like Toronto. Montreal and Vancouver's wins in the APSL and USL came in years they were second fiddle to MLS. And between the two, I believe Montreal won the Voyageurs Cup every single year from 2002-2008.

Regardless the simple point was Toronto and Montreal have both seen their share of glory on the North American stage. And however anyone wants to discount their 13 Stanley Cups, the Blue Jays alone put them in the world of respectability in the world of major sports.

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quote:Originally posted by Vic

^ my new hero.

I gather I'm a lot like you. Not a TFC fan but disappointed they lost, but even more disappointed at coming on here and reading Western Canadians getting off on the loss. The words class, sportsmanship and Canadian come to mind.

I'm happy, not from a Western Canadian perspective, but simply as a Whitecaps fan. I can't possibly chear for a rival. Personally, when it looked like Vancouver was going to win the Voyageurs Cup, I was fearful at the draw vs. Puerto Rico because they are such a strong side. It is ignorant to suggest Vancouver definitely would have beaten Puerto Rico. That still doesn't take away from the disappointment of TFC's performance.

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quote:Originally posted by morbital

yeah it's called past results and a long tradition of winning... thats my crystal ball

FYI, whitecaps won season series over PR this year... tfc couldnt win 1 game

You conveniently chose not to mention that PR rested 8 starters in your 4-2 win so they'd be fresh for the game against Toronto. They're also well ahead in the USL table so let's keep this realistic.

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quote:Originally posted by Vic

Odds of winning the Stanley Cup: 30-1

Odds of winning the Super Bowl: 32-1

Odds of winning the World Series: 30-1

Odds of winning the NBA Title: 30-1

Odds of winning the CCL: much higher

Everyone loses. The odds of winning are extremely rare. Your likelihood of winning is once every 30 years.

Uh, not true. This presupposes that every team has the exact same likelihood of winning at the start of a given season. Do the New York Yankees have the same chance of winning the World Series as the Pittsburgh Pirates? Are the Red Wings in the same boat as the Phoenix Coyotes? Hell, would you give the Leafs 30-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup this upcoming season?

The odds of winning such-and-such trophy is dependent upon the strength of a given team, the strength of opponents, the strength of schedule, injuries, extenuating circumstances, blah blah blah... I know this doesn't alter your underlying point, but I'm half-drunk and feel like being pedantic.

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quote:Originally posted by Vic

You see, that's the funny part. I'm not a Toronto fan in any way. I'm just not a Toronto h8ter, which in some parts of the country makes you stand out like a sore thumb.

I expect that the majority of Whitecaps fans engaging in schadenfreude in regards to TFC's loss are not "Toronto haters" in general, but are loathe to TFC's new arrogant (and ignorant) army of plastics.

If TFC supporters were all as informed as the U-Sector, I doubt there would be much goading from Vancouverites.

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quote:Originally posted by CanadianSoccerFan

You conveniently chose not to mention that PR rested 8 starters in your 4-2 win so they'd be fresh for the game against Toronto.

Now WHY does that sound so FAMILIAR???? Hmmmm.

At any rate, a Caps win over PR is hardly a fluke, and to imply as such is bollocks.

The recent 4-2 win was just one of MANY hard fought and respectable Caps victories against the Islanders since their inception, all others being against their A-squad or as close as can be expected with occasional injuries...

Don't forget last year's regular season standings had PR at #1 and Vancouver #2, separated by a single point, the deciding factor of course being a 90th minute goal in a match by PR against (who else!) Vancouver. The Caps replied in kind by taking them down in the championship playoff final at Swangard.

Toronto has some talent, sure.... but Vancouver and PR have better *teams* and they are closely matched indeed. Definitely not to be underestimated by the likes of MLS.

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quote:Originally posted by Johnnie Monster

Now WHY does that sound so FAMILIAR???? Hmmmm.

At any rate, a Caps win over PR is hardly a fluke, and to imply as such is bollocks.

The recent 4-2 win was just one of MANY hard fought and respectable Caps victories against the Islanders since their inception, all others being against their A-squad or as close as can be expected with occasional injuries...

Don't forget last year's regular season standings had PR at #1 and Vancouver #2, separated by a single point, the deciding factor of course being a 90th minute goal in a match by PR against (who else!) Vancouver. The Caps replied in kind by taking them down in the championship playoff final at Swangard.

Toronto has some talent, sure.... but Vancouver and PR have better *teams* and they are closely matched indeed. Definitely not to be underestimated by the likes of MLS.

You're completely missing the point. I was disputing the assertion that the Caps were an absolute guarantee to get by PR. I wasn't claiming the caps had no chance or any nonsense like that so give the insecurity a rest.

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Insecurity? Nope.

While I too would dispute the aforementioned "assertion" you referenced, I stand by the point that Vancouver routinely beats a team that TFC and its "superior talent" couldn't put a goal past in more than 180 minutes of football.

But hey.... TFC is "Canada's team." [/wankwankwank]

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quote:The Caps replied in kind by taking them down in the championship playoff final at Swangard.

Ah yes, who could forget the famous USL Kerfoot $lewfoot. Not really something I'd want to reference as shining example of a fair result.

At the level these teams are at anyone can beat anyone on any day depending on your health, schedule, streakiness, etc. To a large extent it's is Dr. funk in the house? Throw in luck and you're all set. North American clubs are maturing though, and I imagine in another decade MLS teams will be much stronger and more consistent in their results versus lower leagues. But in the meantime, as we've found in the past 12 months, it's anyone's ball game.

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Kerfoot didn't "buy" the final... it was the USL that cheaped out because they didn't want to shell out the cost of shipping the TV production crew & equipment to PR.

I agree that PR was robbed by the league... unfair circumstances, unfair economics.

...but if you're implying the match itself was somehow unfair, that's complete crap.

A champion side has to be able to be capable of winning at home AND away, and Vancouver has accomplished both in the past three years.

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quote:Originally posted by Vic

^ I've heard the Grey Cup called a lot of things, but can't say I've ever heard it mentioned as a major North American professional sports championship". Can't say the PCHL/WCHL/WHL either.

I was only comparing the three cities but if you want to widen it kudos to Edmonton as well, and probably the Ottawa Silver Seven.

I also don't remember Vancouver winning more than a single NASL championship like Toronto. Montreal and Vancouver's wins in the APSL and USL came in years they were second fiddle to MLS. And between the two, I believe Montreal won the Voyageurs Cup every single year from 2002-2008.

Regardless the simple point was Toronto and Montreal have both seen their share of glory on the North American stage. And however anyone wants to discount their 13 Stanley Cups, the Blue Jays alone put them in the world of respectability in the world of major sports.

My response was looking at how your stats were didn't reflect reality. I honestly don't care about the whole Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver conflict.

That said, a couple points:

1. Whether or not you consider it a major North American league, CFL is a major league in Canada. It is also the best league to look at the kind of stat you want to look at because it includes only Canadian teams (for the most part), playing in a league against each other in a very stable conformation for 50+ years. If anything was going to give you an honest picture of which Canadian city experiences a championship more often, all things being equal, the CFL would be it. As you might expect there's a couple outliers but most teams are clustered together.

Grey Cups (since 1954)

Edmonton 13

Hamilton 7

Ottawa 7

Calgary, BC, Toronto, Winnipeg 5

Montreal 4

Saskatchewan 3

2. Between 1914 and 1926, years you took your Leafs stats from, the NHL Champion competed against the PCHL/WCHL/WHL for the Stanley Cup. So yes, one might consider those Major North American leagues. I would rather look at things in the post-expansion era because I think it gives a fairer look at things than the closed shop that was the Original 6 era, but to each his own.

3. I absolutely should have considered the Voyageur's Cup results. My mistake. However, I will say that the V's Cup was an unofficial championship awarded by the fans, unlike the CSL, which Vancouver won 4 times. Montreal's 1994 A-League win came at a time when the A-League was the de facto first division in the US. So I should probably ammend my ranking to Vancouver 1a and Montreal 1b.

4. "And however anyone wants to discount their 13 Stanley Cups, the Blue Jays alone put them in the world of respectability in the world of major sports."

2 Championships in is nothing to sneeze at. Well done to them.

The problem with this entire discussion is that the sample size isn't big enough given the odds involved.

For example, in 33 years, the Jays would be expected to win a mean of 1.1 World Series (mean=probability of success x number of trials) with a standard deviation of 1.03. This means the likelihood of the Jays winning between 0.07 and 2.13 titles in 33 years* is a little over 68%. More usefully, the odds of winning at least once is 67.3% and the odds of winning at least twice is 46.8%. In other words, winning twice in 33 years is only slightly less likely than winning a single flip of a coin.

It's enough to make me re-evaluate being a Canucks fan.;):(

Anyways, take it easy.:)

*assumes the league size was always 30.

^ P(X=x) = C(n,x)(p^x)(q^(n-x))

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quote:Originally posted by Vic

I imagine in another decade MLS teams will be much stronger and more consistent in their results versus lower leagues.

And add to this the fact that Seattle, Portland, Vancouver and Montreal will all be in MLS. That's 4 of the 6 respectable teams that are/were in the USL (with PR and maybe Rochester - but less true today). I just can't see the USL go through this without being seriously hurt (credibility, stadium, attendance, etc. = drop in caliber).
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If the USL-1 survives for another 5 years after this loss of top quality teams, I will be surprised. They have the new club from New York entering USL-1 next year, but that seems to be it. Garber keeps mentioning the idea of another club from New York, so maybe he has his eye on FC New York.

The PDL will continue to grow, but if MLS creates a reserve/academy league that could compete against the PDL, I think the PDL's days would be numbered. I don't know too much about USL-2, only that it seems to exist only on the US east coast. I don't see much potential for it to grow, at least not into Canada.

Back to the main topic, though. How many want to bet Gaudette will get an offer from an MLS side after the end of the MLS and USL seasons? He was solid in goal, even if he didn't have to face the most difficult of shots.

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quote:Originally posted by Tuscan

How many want to bet Gaudette will get an offer from an MLS side after the end of the MLS and USL seasons? He was solid in goal, even if he didn't have to face the most difficult of shots.

Unless he is guaranteed a starting spot in MLS and decent money, i'd be surprised to see him move. I wonder if PRI would expect to slap a transfer fee on him?

i think DC United and Red Bulls are clubs that need a serious upgrade at the keeper position. Gaudette is certainly better than what those two clubs are putting between the posts right now.

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quote:Originally posted by VPjr

Unless he is guaranteed a starting spot in MLS and decent money, i'd be surprised to see him move. I wonder if PRI would expect to slap a transfer fee on him?

i think DC United and Red Bulls are clubs that need a serious upgrade at the keeper position. Gaudette is certainly better than what those two clubs are putting between the posts right now.

That made me think of Greg Sutton. Where is he right now? Is he trialing with some clubs?

As for Gaudette, regardless of his antics I think he's an excellent keeper, definitely good enough to be a starter in the MLS. From what I've seen from him I would say he's better than Sutton and RBNY would be a good place for him (better than the poor Cepero).

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quote:Originally posted by loyola

That made me think of Greg Sutton. Where is he right now? Is he trialing with some clubs?

As for Gaudette, regardless of his antics I think he's an excellent keeper, definitely good enough to be a starter in the MLS. From what I've seen from him I would say he's better than Sutton and RBNY would be a good place for him (better than the poor Cepero).

Gaudette is an excellent shot stopper, but an evan better Leader. I just get the feeling that he's found a niche in PR, and a move to MLS is not a guaranteed success.

That being said If im an MLS team with a goaltending need, I would choose Gaudette over Sutton at this point.

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quote:Originally posted by Tuscan

I don't know too much about USL-2, only that it seems to exist only on the US east coast. I don't see much potential for it to grow, at least not into Canada.

The scuttlebutt out here on the Left Coast is that we (Highlanders) and Kitsap may be moving up to USL-2 and that USL 1&2 then would merge into an east-west split single league.

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quote:Originally posted by ted

The scuttlebutt out here on the Left Coast is that we (Highlanders) and Kitsap may be moving up to USL-2 and that USL 1&2 then would merge into an east-west split single league.

Scuttlebutt ... just romours.. USL 2 functions on being a division which has realized it cant afford to pay living salaries to its players, so the guys in it are on way up or past prime, its a great bus travel division to be local first step in a pro ladder.

Victoria needs to realize they have to go Div 1 with deep pockets or stay PDL and accept lowered attendance over time as people realize the quality versus event excitement issue.

If the Highlanders can keep a exciting game day experience and build some hard core fan base it can work.. otherwise go USL 1 and all that entails.. can the club get a 5k average ? Thats the big question.

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quote:Originally posted by loyola

That made me think of Greg Sutton. Where is he right now? Is he trialing with some clubs?

I'm willing to wager that he's waiting to return to TFC if/when Frei leaves at the conclusion of the season

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