Luis_Rancagua Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 This is straight from Angus Reid polling (March 25): the BC Liberals are first with 43 per cent (+4 points since November), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 37 per cent (-7), the Green Party with 13 per cent (+2), and the BC Conservative Party with four per cent. Three per cent of decided voters would support other parties or independent candidates in their constituency. Analysing these number, the NDP has lost ground by 7%...This means that the voters have tuned-off from the NDP. The Green Party is probably the worst nightmare for the NDP. They are actually stealing votes from them. The March 24 Ipsos-Reid poll also shows the same information, it even shows that the NDP leader Carole James is losing ground on the likeability front of public opinion. Her numbers have slipped by 3%. In fact, responded were asked who has more leadership skills and likeability: Gordon Campbell comes-out the winner by holding steady over his NDP oponent. It now appears that the voters are moving toward the direction of the Liberal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancouversoccerman Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 And Vaughn Palmer of the Sun has confirmed the NDP's plans. http://communities.canada.com/vancouversun/blogs/viewfromtheledge/archive/2009/03/31/six-weeks-to-go-the-fate-of-b-c-place.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoyleG Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Luis_Rancagua This is straight from Angus Reid polling (March 25): the BC Liberals are first with 43 per cent (+4 points since November), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 37 per cent (-7), the Green Party with 13 per cent (+2), and the BC Conservative Party with four per cent. Three per cent of decided voters would support other parties or independent candidates in their constituency. Analysing these number, the NDP has lost ground by 7%...This means that the voters have tuned-off from the NDP. The Green Party is probably the worst nightmare for the NDP. They are actually stealing votes from them. The March 24 Ipsos-Reid poll also shows the same information, it even shows that the NDP leader Carole James is losing ground on the likeability front of public opinion. Her numbers have slipped by 3%. In fact, responded were asked who has more leadership skills and likeability: Gordon Campbell comes-out the winner by holding steady over his NDP oponent. It now appears that the voters are moving toward the direction of the Liberal. Your still clueless when it comes to polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luis_Rancagua Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 quote:Originally posted by DoyleG Your still clueless when it comes to polls. Doyle, I'm 100% convinced that these polls are accurate. The worst case senario is that the Liberals form a minority government. As for the NDP forming government with a majority, this is not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoyleG Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Luis_Rancagua Doyle, I'm 100% convinced that these polls are accurate. The worst case senario is that the Liberals form a minority government. As for the NDP forming government with a majority, this is not going to happen. You're 100% convinced that the Campbell's first name is Garry. The poll you showed also sees the Liberals losing points, as their "lead" is down to 6 points. The Green Party support is irrelevant since they never match those numbers at the ballot box. The NDP has been growing over the past couple of years and they can win. That's the reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiral Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 A fundamental issue hasn't been addressed; can you cancel the construction contracts without substantial penalty? The work has already started. They've already started taking out the 16 roof inflation fans. Just go to the Auto Show and see what's going on. So have the contracts not been signed yet? Or is Pavco purposely waiting until after the election to sign the contracts? And who would be penalized? The Government? Or the Operating entity Pavco? Well I guess it doesn't matter cause Pavco gets their revenue from the Government anyways and a penalty against the Government is a penalty against the taxpayers. So has the contract already been signed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen LaRose Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 quote:Originally posted by spiral A fundamental issue hasn't been addressed; can you cancel the construction contracts without substantial penalty? The work has already started. They've already started taking out the 16 roof inflation fans. Just go to the Auto Show and see what's going on. So have the contracts not been signed yet? Or is Pavco purposely waiting until after the election to sign the contracts? And who would be penalized? The Government? Or the Operating entity Pavco? Well I guess it doesn't matter cause Pavco gets their revenue from the Government anyways and a penalty against the Government is a penalty against the taxpayers. So has the contract already been signed? The NDP could end up spending more to cancel the contract that they would spend if the project went ahead, just like Chretien with his helicopters a half-generation ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luis_Rancagua Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 Doyle!!! That's BS. Read the poll again. It shows the NDP losing ground to the Liberals by 7%. In fact, the Liberals and the NDP were tied at 40% before the Xmas break, and the only party that has loss ground here is the NDP within the last 3 months. It was by the end of January where the fortunes of the Liberals went up in the polls. Read the polls of polls again: http://www.nodice.ca/elections/britishcolumbia/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen LaRose Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Luis_Rancagua Doyle!!! That's BS. Read the poll again. It shows the NDP losing ground to the Liberals by 7%. In fact, the Liberals and the NDP were tied at 40% before the Xmas break, and the only party that has loss ground here is the NDP within the last 3 months. It was by the end of January where the fortunes of the Liberals went up in the polls. Read the polls of polls again: http://www.nodice.ca/elections/britishcolumbia/ The real question is how much the Basi Brothers investigation and the alleged corruption in the BC Rail sale is going to affect Campbell. That hasn't shown up in the polls, but the trial could continue through the electoral campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiral Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 If the Whitecaps get shafted by the NDP winning the election and cancelling the Retractable Roof and renovations for the Olympics... then the Whitecaps ought to cancel the 5 year Lease at BC Place NOW, TODAY. From a business standpoint, this is total garbage. Total rubbish. A business cannot make future plans based on hearsay or chance. You need facts. If the Whitecaps don't know or have a 100 % guarantee that this Rteractable Roof is going to go ahead, then they should rip up the 5 year Lease and forgo plans for BC Place. I thought the Retractable Roof plans were finalized. So did the MLS. I hope the Whitecaps will take care of business and see that BC Place is unstable... and build their own Waterfront Stadium immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiral Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 A Minority Government is a real probability. Look at the polls below. With a Minority government, the NDP and Green could gang up on Campbell and threaten bringing down the Government unless the Retractable Roof is cancelled. 35 plus 15 is 50 which is more than the Liberals 46: http://www.nodice.ca/elections/britishcolumbia/polls.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue and White Army Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 quote:Originally posted by spiral A Minority Government is a real probability. A minority government? Do you have even the slightest notion how BC's electoral system works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 I may be wrong but I believe there will be a repeat of the electoral reform question during the upcoming BC provincial election. If so there is a very good chance it will pass this time which will probably mean minority/coalition governments in perpetuity. Of course it won't affect this election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbailey62 Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Richard I may be wrong but I believe there will be a repeat of the electoral reform question during the upcoming BC provincial election. If so there is a very good chance it will pass this time which will probably mean minority/coalition governments in perpetuity. Of course it won't affect this election. People need to think the question through very carefully. While I have no issue in principle with coalition governments, they can be notoriously unstable so if BC goes that route, be prepared for more elections! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 Trouble is, BC desperately needs a practical alternative to the arrogant lot of rightwingers running the province now.... Liberal in name only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nazzer Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 I think its good that there is a motion towards proportional representation, considering a couple elections ago we had a majority government that was made up of a party that had received a minority of the popular vote. However, I don't think the system they are proposing is the best possible system there could be. One problem I could see is that with the proposed system a smaller city might no longer have a representative in the legislature. For example (I can't tell if Kelowna will be in the Okanagan Boundary or Okanagan Shuswap) either way, I don't think it would be a good thing for there to possibly be no representative from one city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownbear Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 quote:Originally posted by spiral A Minority Government is a real probability. Look at the polls below. With a Minority government, the NDP and Green could gang up on Campbell and threaten bringing down the Government unless the Retractable Roof is cancelled. 35 plus 15 is 50 which is more than the Liberals 46: http://www.nodice.ca/elections/britishcolumbia/polls.php Spiral, I suggest you go and read the BC electoral law and then google "first-past-the-post" and "single-member electoral district" before you post anything else related to making predictions regarding elections in British Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue and White Army Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Richard I may be wrong but I believe there will be a repeat of the electoral reform question during the upcoming BC provincial election. If so there is a very good chance it will pass this time which will probably mean minority/coalition governments in perpetuity. Of course it won't affect this election. It's called "B.C. Single-Transferable Vote", or BC-STV (http://stv.ca/). And, please God, may it pass. (Although Gordo's ridiculous 60% theshold may yet again prove to be its demise.) I am absolutely sick and tired of having one of two sets of idiots always forming government here in BC: Big Labour or Big Business. Neither one even comes close to representing the majority of British Columbians. Two trumpted-up special interest groups. Good riddance to the both of them. BC-STV would open things up, so there would be more parties with seats in the legislature. The notion that some cities would be completely shut out of the legislature under BC-STV is false. The smaller regions of a riding would still have a big chunk of the votes in that riding, and the parties would be stupid to run all of their candidates in a single riding from one region. They will balance things out, ensuring their candidates come from all regions of the would-be larger BC-STV ridings, lest people of a region all vote for the other party. And what's wrong with a minority government? It's worked pretty so far federally under one Martin and two Harper governments. Why should a party have 100% of the power when they only get 35-40% of the popular vote? It's a false majority. Besides, having two or more parties work together means that compromise becomes necessary, which leads to more pragmatic legislation. All voters would benefit from that, regardless of their political inclinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piltdownman Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 Voting in BC is like being given the option of a piston with a single bullet or a firing squad. BC-STV only confuses the matter by making you rank your poison, instead of just picking which one you think will hurt you the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue and White Army Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 Well, at least with BC-STV there will be a plurality of options (as several parties with elect MLAs), rather than just a duality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 Trouble is BC-STV will inevitably result in minority/coalition governments. As desirable as they may be for many reasons, it is a concept Canadian politicians especially of the rightwing persuasion and their supporting voters have difficulty grasping - witness the recent events in Ottawa and the reaction in the West especially. Minority/coalition governments require a high degree of skill with negotiation and compromise in order to succeed. Steven Harper and his crew have demoinstrated just how helpless a minority government can be in terms of passing legislation and meaningful government when these skills are lacking, and sorely so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue and White Army Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 Harper was throwing his toys out of the pram in regards to the coalition not because he would have had to share power, but because he would have been completely removed from power. It was a well-orchestrated scare tactic. Nothing more, nothing less. Once politicians, and more importantly the voters, realize that stable minority government will require politicians from different parties to cooperate, we will expect nothing less of them, and will not re-elect them if they refuse to co-operate with other parties. Thus, the politicians will be forced to co-operate, for their own sake. No big deal. In terms of what happens to government when a single political party doesn't win the majority of the seats, it honestly wouldn't matter if the result is a formal coalition majority, or a minority government dependent on informal support from other parties. The result would be the same. Just look at Harper as a minority prime minister. He's informally worked with the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP in order to get legislation passed. And that's ultimately benefited the voters, as he's had to compromise and tone down the extremist leanings of his legislation in order to see it passed in the House of Commons. Minorities? Coalitions? Bring them on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiral Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 I don't need to read any electoral crapp. Under Parliamentary law, federal or provincial, if the other parties have more combined seats than the first place party, you have yourself a minority government. Who says a minority government can't happen in B.C.? I would agree that the next 5 weeks will be stressful. What is the best way to prevent a minority government? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finchster Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 quote:Originally posted by spiral I don't need to read any electoral crapp. Under Parliamentary law, federal or provincial, if the other parties have more combined seats than the first place party, you have yourself a minority government. Who says a minority government can't happen in B.C.? I would agree that the next 5 weeks will be stressful. What is the best way to prevent a minority government? Spiral enough is enough if you were from BC (like you claim) you would know only two parties have a chance to get elected. I am 100% sure the greens won't get anything and if they get one seat it is not enough to create a minority government unless the liberals and the NDP tie at 39-39. There are 79 seats in BC. Are you this stupid really? I am embarrased for the king troll to fail so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 Oh the stress of perhaps losing the retractable roof for a lower cost fixed roof. How do you guys find the will to live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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