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Could MLS Attendance Surpass the NHL, and NBA???


Luis_Rancagua

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This comes directly from MLS Rumors...What do you think?

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REPORT: Could MLS Attendance Surpass the NHL, and NBA This Season?

Thursday, February 19, 2009

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Special thanks to our friends at American Soccer News for alerting us to this article via Twitter.

NHL blog Puck Money has an intriguing story today comparing MLS to NHL attendance trends:

Here is an excerpt:

I thought this might be possible with the relatively old news that Major League Soccer's new franchise this season, Seattle Sounders FC, have sold over 18,000 season tickets for this upcoming season of MLS, and expect to average around 20,000 a game. In 2008, the MLS averaged 16,459 spectators per game; down just about 2% from 2007. By looking at the chart above, Synthetic turf is projecting an average attendance below/around 17,500 per game for the MLS over the summer of 2009. Now I'm not sure what number he used for the new Seattle franchise to come up with a the projected number for MLS in 2009, but using the season-ticket sales number (18,000) for Seattle FC, I came up with the following three projections:

1. MLS '09 (down another 2%) - 16,885

2. MLS '09 (flat difference) - 17,229

3. MLS '09 (up 2%) - 17,574

Remember, that includes the additional 18,000 (which may be bigger) per game that Seattle Sounders FC will account for. Now MLS teams have either 19 or 20 home games depending on their schedule, or roughly half the home games NHL and NBA teams have. Seeing as I don't follow the NBA with enough detail, I won't compare them to the MLS; but I can speak for the NHL.

With all NHL teams having played past the statistical "halfway point" of 20 home games each, I will use this average. According to my excel graph, the NHL average for the first 20 home games, or 300 games this season, was 17,242 per game. Compared to my 2009 projected MLS numbers, only a raise in attendance (1-2%) for the MLS will put them over the NHL average attendance mark. But, this neglects the second half attendance boost the NHL receives, which as of tonight before the games were played was up from 17,242 by a little over 1.5%, or 17,512.

What do you think? Sound off in the comments.

http://www.mls-rumors.net/2009/02/report-could-mls-attendance-surpass-nhl.html

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Average attendance is just a (small) part of the equation in the modern sports landscape. MLS is charging less for less games.

The CFL has an average attendance of 25-30k, yet it's not on the same scale as major North American sports leagues or major European soccer leagues.

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quote:Originally posted by Daniel

Average attendance is just a (small) part of the equation in the modern sports landscape. MLS is charging less for less games.

The CFL has an average attendance of 25-30k, yet it's not on the same scale as major North American sports leagues or major European soccer leagues.

Correct, Soccer still has a ways to go to even approach hockey in the US. And you must also consider the number of event/games for each comparaison and how that impact ticket revenues and ticket prices.

NHL - 41 home games

NBA - 41 home games

MLS - 15 home games + a couple on international freindlies/V cup games

CFL - 9 home games

So if your operating budget is say "X" million, all other things being equal, you have to generate much more in ticket revenues or charge more for the tickets in the CFL ( because of fewer events) than you do for MLS in order to cover your operating budget.

Its not difficult to conclude that TFC is doing better than the Argos. Argo tickets are NOT more expensive than TFC. If anything they are cheaper.

Factor in things like roser sizes for MLS versus CFL and the salary cap ( CFL cap is something like double that of the MLS) and is it any wonder that Eugene Melnyk thinks that Soccer has a brighter future financially than CFL football?

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So the MLS salary cap is twice that of the CFL or vice versa? Your wording there is confusing...

A football team has a 46 man roster, a soccer team 16 or 17 (?)

so a better question to ask is: what is the average CFL player salary versus MLS player salary taking the Beckham factor out of the equation?

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It's bogus Luis.

Gross and net revenues would be a much better comparison factor. Another factor more valid than average attendance would be percentage of seats offered for sale actually filled!

Alternatively, let's look at the average amount of money put up for a season's ticket!

Average attendance doesn't hold up as a valid form of comparison IMO.

B

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quote:Originally posted by spiral

So the MLS salary cap is twice that of the CFL or vice versa? Your wording there is confusing...

A football team has a 46 man roster, a soccer team 16 or 17 (?)

so a better question to ask is: what is the average CFL player salary versus MLS player salary taking the Beckham factor out of the equation?

Edited....CFL cap IS roughly twice that of the MLS.

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