tmcmurph Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Okay so this thins out the herds a bit. With Montreal, Ottawa, St Louis & Atlanta fading that leaves Vancouver, Portland and Miami. ---------------------------------------------------- MLS commissioner: St. Louis bid still shy - USA Today Garber said money was St. Louis' "primary concern." http://www.whitecapsfc.com/archive/feature01160901.aspx The Blank won’t bring soccer team to Atlanta by 2011 - Atlanta Journal-Constitution Kim Schreckengost, chief of staff for Blank’s business group, said Thursday that potential partners, including various metro Atlanta governments, couldn’t commit to a plan in time for the 2011 season. http://www.whitecapsfc.com/archive/feature01150902.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masster Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 ^Who said anything about Ottawa fading? I think the news out of Montreal, St. Louis, Atlanta and Philly only enhances their bid. (Still don't think they will get in though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmcmurph Posted January 17, 2009 Author Share Posted January 17, 2009 quote:Originally posted by masster ^Who said anything about Ottawa fading? I think the news out of Montreal, St. Louis, Atlanta and Philly only enhances their bid. (Still don't think they will get in though) Maybe it is just me books but a plan no matter how good without any history or stadium or civic deal with politicos doesn't go far. Portland, Vancouver, Miami all have some problems but have a lot more going for them than Ottawa. Nothing against Ottawa I just don't see MLS happening there. USL-1 could definitely be a good move for Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
massimo Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 from the article --- Six other cities are vying for expansion slots, with Miami and Vancouver perhaps the favorites. Also applying are Montreal, Atlanta, Ottawa and Portland, all ready to pay the $40 million fee. --- *scratches his head* ok now I'm confused, did I miss something????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SthMelbRed Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 Both of those articles have Miami and Vancouver mentioned as favourites for this round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoyleG Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 quote:Originally posted by SthMelbRed Both of those articles have Miami and Vancouver mentioned as favourites for this round. The article mentions Vancouver as a possible favorite. Yet they are still behind Portland until the latter decides to drop out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuscan Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 Don't they get that Portland is out of the question at this point?? Portland still has to show that financing can come from the private sector rather than the public sector, something they really can't rely on at this point. If Garber is smart, which I'm sure he is, he won't accept Portland until they secure SOLID private financing that doesn't need to rely on public funding in order to build non-liquid assets. The last thing MLS needs is a club that is indebted to public institutions, assuming that the revenue the public institutions receive from any building that isn't associated with the team is not enough to recover for what the public institution paid for the private team's stadium. Portland, by how I perceive their bid, is not viable, whereas Vancouver, due to how the public sector will not be negatively affected, is far more suitable. Vancouver and Miami 2011, it's a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
An Observer Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 I did an analysis many months ago on here of the groups which I still stick by (copied below). The only difference is Montreal has dropped out as they won't pay the fee. Therefore, I agree that Vancouver and Miami are the likely winners. Atlanta is out for 2011 now as well; St. Louis does not have the money; and Portland needs support for its stadium which is highly unlikely in this environment. Ottawa is a small market and needs support for its stadium. I personally suspect the league will only announce 2 for 2011, and agree to spend the next year or 2 deciding whether to expand by 2 or more in 2012 and 2013. I personally think they would be stupid not to wait a bit to consider further expansion as St. Louis may find the money, Atlanta and Portland may get city support, Montreal may come back into the running, and the Mets may consider a second franchise in NYC. My rating for what it is worth based on four factors (ownership group, media market, stadium and fan base) 1. Montreal Onwership group: yes, deep pockets with experience in NA and Europe Media market: yes, #2 in Canada = 15th in the US (bigger than Portland and St. Louis Stadium: yes, have an expandable if basic stadium with no dependencies (ie. public money/approvals) Fan base: yes, Impact generate good numbers; should only be increased by playing in MLS 2. Miami Ownership group: Yes, very solid with Barcelona increasing league profile in Europe Media Market: Yes, #7 in the US Stadium: ?, temporary solution with Florida university but no long term firm plans Fan base: ?, Fusion failed and Ft Lauderdale Strikers were not solid in the old NASL 3. Vancouver Onwership group: Yes, deep pockets with star category Media market: ?, 3rd in Canada = 24th in US (similar to Portland but way smaller than other US cities) Stadium: ?, similar to Seatle but don't own the building and much depends on unseen drawings of a redeveloped BC place Fan base: Yes, demonstrated in USL and in the NASL before that 4. Atlanta Ownership Group: yes, they have a big time NFL owner Media Market: yes, 9th in the US and after Miami the largest US city out of the MSL Stadium: ??, no announced plans and reports suggest it needs public money which is not guaranteed Fan Base: ??, Silverbacks not greatly supported in USL, nor were previous teams in NASL 5. Portland Ownership Group: ?, not nearly as deep as the others in Paulsen unless his Dad becomes majority owner (and he's go other things on his mind) Media Market: ?, similar to Vancouver but only 23rd in US Stadium: ??, almost a no as relient on public money and no real decent temporary solution other using an existing baseball park Fan base: Yes, the Timbers draw well in USL as they did in NASL 6. St. Louis Ownership Group: ??, almost a no as there seems to be no money men behind this group Media Market: Yes, at 18th good but not comparable to Miami or Atlanta and even Montrael is bigger Stadium: ?, has city agreement to build but can they finance it, and what is the temporary solution if that fails Fan base: ?, assumed to be a yes as America's soccer hotbed but no USL and bad track record in NASL 7. Ottawa Ownership Group: Yes, very deep Media Market: ??, would 45th in the US next to Hartford and Buffalo Stadium: ?, has plans but needs public support Fan base: ?, sure Canadians may support soccer more than Americans but no track record. So on this basis, I would suggest Montreal and Miami. The first ticks all the boxes, the second is an entry back into the 9th largest US market with deep pockets and star quality. If they go for 4, Vancouver should be in with one of Atlanta or Portland (or St. Louis if only because Garber seems to believe in that market). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alberto7 Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 Uhhhh Montreal withdrew their bid in November so they can't be number 1 in line to get a franchise..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MastaK Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 Obviously you didn't even read the first sentence of his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuirtonPark Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 The Sportsnet interview on Saturday with Don Garber hinted that Miami was a strong contender. As the MLS Cup is held in late fall, the league may welcome another warm climate location for the final, and playing the game in Carson, CA every year is not on, although San Jose is another option. Houston's stadium looks minor league and doesn't add to the TV event experience. All this may be a factor in Miami's favour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luis_Rancagua Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Now that more contenders are dropping-out from the race as a result of the global recession, I will love to see Montreal's bid back in the running sooner than expected...In fact, for 2011...I'm going to ask St-Theresa to prey for this to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soro17 Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 quote:7. Ottawa Ownership Group: Yes, very deep Why does everyone assume Eugene Melnyk's pockets are so deep? I would assume the opposite. His two principal investments would be his interest in Biovail and his interest in the Senators. With respect to Biovail, as of Dec. 16th, 2008 he beneficially owned (21,478,758 shares) a 13.5% interest in the company (worth approximately $289,000,000). Given the take-over bid rules, and assuming Mr. Melnyk wants to retain a material interest in Biovail, these shares a not a liquid investment. In addition, in June/July last year Mr. Melnyk lost a proxy fight and failed to install his slate of directors. He is effectively on the outside looking in and has no say in the management of Biovail. In addition, Mr. Melnyk is facing fraud charges from the SEC in the US and the OSC in Ontario. Finally, Biovail's shares are trading just above a ten-year low. With respect to the Senators, I see a team on the decline which will likely see declining attendance and revenues. Again, an illiquid investment and likely not a source of cash for Mr. Melnyk. With the restrictions on credit, it is unlikely that Mr. Melnyk could borrow against his interest in the Senators either. Assuming MLS conducts better due diligence than the NHL when selecting owners, I don't see how any group led by Mr. Melnyk could be seen as "very deep". (BTW, I am not a disgruntled former Biovail employee, nor have I ever owned shares of Biovail. I just get annoyed when people hold up quasi-crooks like Melnyk as white knights.) Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
An Observer Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 perhaps you are right Soro17. According to Wikipedia (which I admit is not the best source), he is doing pretty well. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadians_by_net_worth but certainly he may have been a victim of the credit crunch, no doubt. and perhaps his wealth has been over estimated. Then again, he lives offshore, and its always difficult to estimate someone's wealth in that position and I never held him up as a white night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canuck Oranje Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 In the current economic environment, the key measure of financial capability should be the availability of cash rather than net worth. Net worth is much more difficult to access in a credit crisis and most rankings are obsolete including the Forbes list of 2008. On cash, I would place Claure (Miami) at the top of the list of MLS applicants because in his business he simply harvests cash margin from his distribution of cell phones and smart phones. His business is also very geographically diverse and across regions where consumers have not been as affected yet. Curiously, RIM's Blackberry is one of his biggest name products. Saputo is also near the top of the list but there are some restrictions. There is no doubt that selling food is fairly recession proof. However, I'm sure that the family will not be willing to withdraw large amounts of cash from the business to finance a risky venture. A lot more bricks and mortar need to be maintained in this business and margins are thinner. Nevertheless, unlike many on this board (and with my soccer fanatic's hat off and my business analyst hat on), I don't think the Saputo's have lost yet. It's not all that different from the approach taken by Balsillie in his stalking of an NHL franchise. As for Melnyk and others, the biggest challenge they face is the incredibly shrinking availability of public sector funds. In this environment, nothing is certain until the shovels are in the ground and stadiums (or renovations) are being built. In the end, while some seem to ignore the financial disaster that the USA is in the midst of, the MLS will not come out of it unscathed. In my opinion, Garber needs to grab the cash whereever he can get it because all those wonderful bids will continue to reduce in numbers. At the same time, there will be some existing franchises that will show some signs of financial stress this year. Saputo may still end up with a franchise (and Balsillie will likely get an NHL franchise if he still wants one) because the MLS will go from thinking it has a wealth of options to realizing that they don't have all that many. I hate to pop the balloon but I am certain that all is not as bright as MLS management might want to present. I suspect our perception of the the financial success of the league will have changed by November 2009. Time will tell. Remember, it is not the wealth of owners but their willingness to put their cash into this venture at a time when cash is really king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loud Mouth Soup Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Luis_Rancagua I'm going to ask St-Theresa to prey for this to happen. You want her to stalk MLS to make it happen? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calgary Boomer Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 It is interesting to me that the expansion announcement has moved from the end of '08 to March 19th. This is clearly an attempt by the MLS Governors to give Portland and St Louis the absolute maximum amount of time to get their financial situations in order...and that means securing public money, or finding a deep pocketed partners. Vancouver and Miami are standing outside the league offices with wheelbarrow's full of money, while the league waits for St Louis and Portland to show up. Vancouver & Miami for 2011, conditional franchises for St Louis and Portland for 2012. Sorry Ottawa...ain't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzly Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Canuck Oranje I don't think the Saputo's have lost yet. It's not all that different from the approach taken by Balsillie in his stalking of an NHL franchise. I think the approach is totally different. Balsillie is throwing money at the NHL and willing to overpay and still can't land a team while Saputo is trying to bargain and get in to MLS as cheap as possible. If MLS gets into financial difficulties maybe Saputo's strategy will work but if not he is going to have to offer more money and possibly significantly more than they were asking for this time. I have said all along Melnyk doesn't have the wealth that the Saputos have. Yet he has done a very good job of running the Senators and has turned the franchise around regardless of whether they are playing poorly this year. He is a entrepeneur and risk taker and willing to put his money on the line while the Saputos do everything as low risk, conservative and cheap as possible. This is maybe the difference between old money and new money. As a fan you have to like Melnyk's approach better though especially as he has shown he can run a franchise well and is not the type to bankrupt it. I think Melnyk and Ottawa have more chance than people are giving them credit for. However, the interesting thing is if you put Melnyk in Montreal we would already be in MLS while if you put Saputo in Ottawa they would probably have a USL franchise right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottawasoccerfan Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 Soro17 The senators are really not on the decline .You look at the how deep the draft is this year and the prospects they have they will be fine.I do think attendance will be about the same maybe go up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calgary Boomer Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Grizzly I think the approach is totally different. Balsillie is throwing money at the NHL and willing to overpay and still can't land a team while Saputo is trying to bargain and get in to MLS as cheap as possible. If MLS gets into financial difficulties maybe Saputo's strategy will work but if not he is going to have to offer more money and possibly significantly more than they were asking for this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Calgary Boomer Times could get really tough...but MLS is not going to devalue its product, or drop the expansion fee. Joey's going to have to pay probably more than 40 million if he wants in...IF they expand beyond 2011. I agree, but what if all candidates drop out at $40m? What happens then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuscan Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 So far it looks like Vancouver and Miami are fully willing to drop the $40mil to get in. Unless either of those two suddenly loses their cool and bails, I don't think MLS will have any problems at all for 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canuck Oranje Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 My point was not about money being offered initially but about waiting out the league to make it do something it did not want to do. In that sense it will a lot more similar than it might at first appear. I still think that both stand a good chance to get what they are looking for. And Balsillie will pay a lot less than he offered Nashville a few years back. quote:Originally posted by Grizzly I think the approach is totally different. Balsillie is throwing money at the NHL and willing to overpay and still can't land a team while Saputo is trying to bargain and get in to MLS as cheap as possible. If MLS gets into financial difficulties maybe Saputo's strategy will work but if not he is going to have to offer more money and possibly significantly more than they were asking for this time. I have said all along Melnyk doesn't have the wealth that the Saputos have. Yet he has done a very good job of running the Senators and has turned the franchise around regardless of whether they are playing poorly this year. He is a entrepeneur and risk taker and willing to put his money on the line while the Saputos do everything as low risk, conservative and cheap as possible. This is maybe the difference between old money and new money. As a fan you have to like Melnyk's approach better though especially as he has shown he can run a franchise well and is not the type to bankrupt it. I think Melnyk and Ottawa have more chance than people are giving them credit for. However, the interesting thing is if you put Melnyk in Montreal we would already be in MLS while if you put Saputo in Ottawa they would probably have a USL franchise right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandstander Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Calgary Boomer It is interesting to me that the expansion announcement has moved from the end of '08 to March 19th. This is clearly an attempt by the MLS Governors to give Portland and St Louis the absolute maximum amount of time to get their financial situations in order...and that means securing public money, or finding a deep pocketed partners. Vancouver and Miami are standing outside the league offices with wheelbarrow's full of money, while the league waits for St Louis and Portland to show up. Vancouver & Miami for 2011, conditional franchises for St Louis and Portland for 2012. Sorry Ottawa...ain't going to happen. In discussing an announcemnet it has always been stated late 2008, early 2009, with the latter being the more probable option. I have never heard any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandstander Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 quote: Saputo is also near the top of the list but there are some restrictions. There is no doubt that selling food is fairly recession proof. However, I'm sure that the family will not be willing to withdraw large amounts of cash from the business to finance a risky venture. A lot more bricks and mortar need to be maintained in this business and margins are thinner. Nevertheless, unlike many on this board (and with my soccer fanatic's hat off and my business analyst hat on), I don't think the Saputo's have lost yet. It's not all that different from the approach taken by Balsillie in his stalking of an NHL franchise. Lost in this once again is George Gillet. Without George Gillet Saputo is way out of his league. He needed George Gillet to make this deal happen. Saputo is not cash rich, despite the family (meaning family as in it is not all Joey's money)worth pegged at around 4 bil. I mean seriously, out here we have an owner willing to fund a stadium to the tune of 80 to 100 million dollars, Joey was looking for financing deals to add more space to his undersized stadium. Does that sound cash rich to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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