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Calgary Boomer

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Guest Jeffery S.

Stats show that the 2nd leg at home is an advantage. You are always better off trying to solve the tie at home in the 2nd leg.

Away in Montreal and home in Vancouver is better, it gives you a do or die home game next Sunday, if you pull it off you go to the final, if not the season ends. Also ensures a better crowd at Swangard.

They'll probably choose to do the opposite.

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quote:Originally posted by Calgary Boomer

They did the opposite the year they won. I just think the Wednesday game in Honduras throws a wrinkle in the strategy because they'll be tired already. And if they eat any of the food, they'll be sick too.

I doubt they could get any tired-er than they already are. (not a word, I know). Also, Montrealers can eat anything and not be sick, ever heard of poutine? ;)

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Well that's good, two conflicting reports on the Friday destination. I've got a source who says it will be played at Commonwealth with the entire stadium sold out. They're going to scrap the two legs format for one battle royal. The winning coach becomes the new MNT gaffer, replacing Mitchell halfway through the Honduras game on the 11th.

Idiocy aside, Vancouver would be foolish to play at home first, that is just giving away an advantage they fought to earn all season. Also, why does the USL not employ the away-goals rule like in UEFA competitions?

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quote:Originally posted by Jeffrey S.

Stats show that the 2nd leg at home is an advantage. You are always better off trying to solve the tie at home in the 2nd leg.

Perhaps this is true in Europe, when there is plenty of time between fixtures, but in the USL-1 with games Friday and Sunday, stats show that travel is a significant factor. Roughly 600km seems to be the critical distance.

If the distance between cities is less than 600km, then the team that opens at home has only won the series 22% of the time. So if the cities are close, then you definitely want the second game at home.

However, if the distance is greater than 600km, then the team that opens at home has won the series 57% of the time.

And in the case that it's the higher-seeded team that has opted to open at home with a distance of more than 600km, then that team has gone on to win an impressive 82% of the time.

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Guest Jeffery S.
quote:Originally posted by AlanDouglas

Perhaps this is true in Europe, when there is plenty of time between fixtures, but in the USL-1 with games Friday and Sunday, stats show that travel is a significant factor. Roughly 600km seems to be the critical distance.

If the distance between cities is less than 600km, then the team that opens at home has only won the series 22% of the time. So if the cities are close, then you definitely want the second game at home.

However, if the distance is greater than 600km, then the team that opens at home has won the series 57% of the time.

And in the case that it's the higher-seeded team that has opted to open at home with a distance of more than 600km, then that team has gone on to win an impressive 82% of the time.

Those are interesting stats, Alan, I find them surprising.

I am not sure about the distance factor, but obviously the typical USL Friday-Sunday double legs alter the stats since the home team is not really settled in waiting for the visiting side, the travel is not balanced. The visitors have travelled once and the home team twice in three days, and the home team second leg has arrived close to when the visiting team has, so that alters the 2nd leg home advantage.

In any case I think you will find that 2nd leg at home is statistically an advantage not only in Europe but around the world, even in Libertadores where the travel can be as great as in North America. Where games are held midweek in different weeks, or even waiting two weeks. Indeed now that Europe has expanded so has travel in Europe. And 2nd leg at home remains an advantage, I think around 60-65%.

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quote:Originally posted by Kurosawa

I doubt they care much about the field the at this point in the season, and anyway wich field are you talking about??? Vancouver or Mtl???

Both :(

From 2 really nice pitches to 2 tragedies (one caused by over padded pointy ball sissies [xx(] )

I think Swangard could use a few more days. Light rain for Van on thur/fri/sat with a break on Sunday.

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