Reality Soccer - Canada's Record

[Robert]

Reality Soccer – Canada’s Record.

1) Every time a World Cup qualifying campaign is about to commence, many Canadian soccer fans start to experience an unfounded sense of optimism for the prospects of our men’s national team finally succeeding. Each time there is speculation that our current crop of players is better than ever before. This debatable fact, more than likely, holds true for every other nation as well. Only we’d never know it, because the Canadian Soccer Association goes to extreme lengths to avoid hosting any international matches between World Cups. This is inevitably followed by failure to qualify, which inevitably is followed by promises from the C.S.A. that they are going to start arranging international matches like we’ve never have before.

Reality – The last time Canada made it to the World Cup Final was in 1986, 22 years ago.

2) In order to qualify for the World Cup finals, Canada needs to finish in the top four of the CONCACAF’s final round of qualifying, a.k.a. the Hex.

Reality – The last time Canada made it to the Hex was in 1997, 11 years ago, when we finished sixth out of six.

3) In order to qualify for the Hex, Canada needs to finish first or second in one of CONCACAF’s semi-final rounds.

Reality – Canada’s record in the last three CONCACAF semi-final rounds:

1996 (Finished 1st)

Canada – Panama 3-1

Canada – Cuba 2-0

Cuba – Canada 0-2

Panama – Canada 0-0

Canada – El Salvador 1-0

El Salvador – Canada 0-2

2000 (Finished 3rd)

Canada – Trinidad & Tobago 0-2

Panama – Canada 0-0

Mexico – Canada 2-0

Trinidad & Tobago – Canada 4-0

Canada – Panama 1-0

Canada – Mexico 0-0

2004 (Finished 4th)

Canada – Guatemala 0-2

Canada – Honduras 1-1

Costa Rica – Canada 1-0

Honduras – Canada 1-1

Canada – Costa Rica 1-3

Guatemala – Canada 0-1

Reality – History shows that in order to advance from the semi-final rounds, we must win our home matches. In 2000, we lost our opening match 0-2 to Trinidad & Tobago, in Edmonton. In 2004, we lost our opening match 0-2 to Guatemala, in Burnaby.

Reality – Canada must win on August 20th against Jamaica, in Toronto, and on September 6th against Honduras, in Montreal, to have a realistic chance of making it to the Hex next year. Anything less than four points from these two matches, and we can place our unfounded optimism, for a World Cup appearance in South Africa, on the backburners for yet another four years.

[unkleduke]

great post. couldn't agree more. the home games are crucial for our side, and the fact that there will be thousands of jamaicans, hondurans and mexicans at the games in canada makes it easier for the visitors.

i think we have a more talented team than we have had in awhile, but we need to make it hard for teams to come up here to play. instead, they have thousands of their supporters here and they end up having two home games against canada.

hopefully this year is different. i have my tix to the jamaica game and i'll be making some noise, but i know that there will be thousands of jamaicans there as well. unfortunately there aren't thousands of canadians living in latin america and the caribbean. i was actually living in trinidad in 2000 and went to the qualifier there - i was one of about 4 canadians amongst 20,000 trinis. we lost 4-0 (and lost the home leg in edmonton 2-0 where the trini fans appeared to almost equal the canadians in the massive but half-filled commonwealth stadium).

but the game is played on the pitch, so we can advance if we get good support and if we play well. time will tell but i can't wait for the first game.

[Juby]

Getting to the hex would mean two of the better Concacaf teams won't be there (special thanks to Jack Warner) so if we make it there we should have one of our best shots at qualifying (I really doubt we'll come in 6th if Honduras and Jamaica are gone).

Also, lately I've been getting really confident in the team. We have a solid group of professionals with professional attitudes. They seem to have the capability of closing the games where they are more talented (which is simple but so key). But their is still a problem that could also be a benefit: We play our game but we still somewhat let our opponents dictate the pace of the game (this can work extremely well against teams like Brazil but devastates us when we play the lesser teams like guadalupe, martinique etc).

What all this says to me is that we are most likely to lose (usually in a very close score) to teams that are a fair degree better or dramatically worse then us. This however might be a good thing this world cup run because in this group and the next group, we'll probably only be playing against teams around our level + mexico and the US, and these are the games our boys seem to pull out there most consistent level of play, full concentration, no assumptions, just completely professional play.

So to answer your question, I am feeling very confident about these WCQ. I kinda think it's more likely that we would lose a minnow then Jamaica because Jamaica is just a little behind us in terms of talent, which is the type of game our boys have been conditioned to win (for there clubs), and if Honduras steps up there game, it'll probably just jump start our boys, and their no mexico so I wouldn't be surprised if we stomped them (and I kinda think were more likely to beat honduras if honduras play good (maybe not great) then if they played a little weak).

One last thing, as much as teamwork and depth can help, I wouldn't underestimate the advantage of having the best player on the pitch on your team (which we do), it can make a huge difference not just in terms of that player but confident skillful play can rub off on the whole team.

edit: The professional attitude is also extremely good for pressure games. No matter how high the stakes are or how far we fall behind (Canada vs USA) we continue to play and play hard, they don't give up till the whistle blows (and not even then still thinking of Canada USA), this attitude can really be the factor in deciding close games, Alot of teams would settle in for a draw against us but even if we toned down our attack, you know there eyes are still looking for that goal and they will pounce on any advantage.

[red card]

Robert, you stated what we all don't want to think about; but we all know.

The buildup to this round sounds eerily similar to 2000 as we're riding high on the Gold Cup win. But the cocoon we're living burst in the very first game as Dwight Yorke single handedly killed us. It took me a few days to just get over the agony of defeat. By the time of the Panama match, I kinda knew we're not going to advance.

So, a win against Jamaica is sorely needed - just purely for sentiment & morale. If we lose, it's going to be really sombre and then really ugly and angry here.

[Robert]

Interesting that unkleduke & red card both referred to previous qualifying matches against caribbean opponents. These have always proven to be a thorn in Canada's side. Right from our second qualifying campaign back in 1968, when we were eliminated because of a 0-0 draw, in Bermuda. In 2000, I was in Edmonton, when I had to endure the CSA's hospitality in the from of a steel-drum half-time show, just so I could appreciate Angus Eve's blast a little bit more. Meanwhile, thousands of Canadian fans were with money in their hands were stranded outside because the CSA only had two windows open that were selling tickets. Thousands of Canadians missed that game. In Toronto, it wouldn't surprise me the CSA handed out free spliffs to anyone sporting Jamaican colours. Anything to make those Reg-eh Boyz feel right at home. How much thought did the CSA put into awarding these matches to the cities their going to be played in? Not too much if you go by how the Voyageur sections were allocated for these games.

[BrennanFan]

quote:Originally posted by Robert

Each time there is speculation that our current crop of players is better than ever before. This debatable fact, more than likely, holds true for every other nation as well.

This is the most important point.

Yes we have an excellent team now, we play attacking soccer and we are without a doubt much better than in '04. But Honduras has experienced the same growth and have many more players in Europe now that ever before. Not to mention their U23s are going to the Olympics. Jamaica has also improved, and they have an excellent coach who knows how to win in Concacaf. Mexico has not gotten good results lately, but they have an amazing group of truly world class young players who will make their WCQ debut this year.

It will not be easy. But I believe we can do it.

[An Observer]

I think the current crop of players is far far superior to what we had in 4 years ago. In almost every position we are better and deeper. Our midfield in particular is far better. And we have more options up front and on the wings. But as we don't play alot of matches, chemistry is an issue but certainly not as big as last time around when many players like Grande, Peters, and Simpson had hardly played with the senior squad. I am much more confident than last time. We should also have better home support than we ever have had, at least in the last 15 years.

However, we have schedule similar to last time where we start off against the weakest side in the group at home. If we get 3 points, we can build some momentum for the next match against Honduras. Another 3 there and who knows, maybe we can steal a point in Mexico as those points will simply be seen as a bonus by the players. Even with 6, we will go into the final matches likely with the pressure squarely on the home side and us only needing ties to qualify top 2.

All this being said, even a tie in the first match will put the pressure on us. We will then need a win in the second match against Honduras like last cycle. Another tie or loss there and we are in big time trouble. We should be able to handle Jamaica at home but stranger things have happened. We should have easily handled Guatemala last time around but didn't. The big difference there is Guatemala had about 8 matches of preparation leading up to that match where Jamaica will have a similar preparation to us (and frankly, maybe even worse in some ways over the last couple of years). So they shouldn't be able to surprise us by being much better prepared.

Honduras really scares me though as I think midfield forward they are as strong if not stronger than us at least in their starting 11. We are definitely deeper at the back and I think probably have better options off the bench or if there are injuries or cards that factor in. The question for me is whether we will be able to sustain enough possession, use our width and full back support to put their defense under pressure especially with Friend as a big target man. If we can do that, we may take their skilled players out of the game. This being said, we have had great propensity lately to dominate play but still give up goals (think Costa Rica in both the Gold Cup and at home last year). I could easily see us put Honduras under pressure, and they bend but do not break, and Palacios, Guevara, and/or Suazo combined in a moment of class and we are finished.

Especially in Honduras, I would be tempted to play Imoff or Nsaliwa in the hole in front of our defense with De Guzman and Hutchinson a bit farther forward but staying pretty compact, closing down the passing lanes. And then use the counter with De Rosario and Radzinski on the wings (with Hume, Simpson, or Peters off the bench late on), to cross into Friend. If we play open down there, we could be killed. Ironically, I think in spite of our better possession play recently which I am all for, we do not necessarily have the class defenders in McKenna, Serioux and even Stalteri to cover our asses should we lose the ball and be quickly countered. I saw it against Cost Rica when we lost possession, they ended up with a moment too long on the ball, and a guy made a beautiful run which Hainault fell asleep on...and it was 1-0

[Keegan]

I am pretty happy about our play against central american teams lately. Costa Rica and Guatemala. I think we can take Honduras as NO TEAM in CONCACAF has a stronger midfield than us. Sure Honduras has some solid forwards but if we can win the midfield battle then we can take advantage of their weak defense and win.

[Juby]

quote:Originally posted by Robert

it wouldn't surprise me the CSA handed out free spliffs to anyone sporting Jamaican colours.

Isn't that the pot calling the kettle black?

edit: where does JCL play for Honduras, he can play sideback about as well as winger for genoa so maybe they won't be too weak defensively.

[The Beaver]

What is different this time around is the sense that our guys--and our coaching staff--are not taking anything for granted. They know they are in tough, but they are confident and motivated and cohesive as a group. We are in tough, but we seem better prepared than the last go around, and certainly better than the previous two.

[BearcatSA]

quote:Originally posted by The Beaver

What is different this time around is the sense that our guys--and our coaching staff--are not taking anything for granted. They know they are in tough, but they are confident and motivated and cohesive as a group. We are in tough, but we seem better prepared than the last go around, and certainly better than the previous two.

That's the X factor which I hope will come through for us.

[Keegan]

quote:Originally posted by Juby

Isn't that the pot calling the kettle black?

edit: where does JCL play for Honduras, he can play sideback about as well as winger for genoa so maybe they won't be too weak defensively.

well he is a full back so I wouldn't say he strengthens their defence too much. I mean we have Stalteri and Klukowski but still not a strong defense because of our CB

[jpg75]

quote:Originally posted by Juby

Isn't that the pot calling the kettle black?

edit: where does JCL play for Honduras, he can play sideback about as well as winger for genoa so maybe they won't be too weak defensively.

"Rambo" de Leon plays the #10 position for Genoa. For Honduras in their last WCQ at Puerto Rico he also played #10, with Guevara out on the left. In the GC last summer against Cuba and Guadeloupe he had been out on the left, with Guevara staying in the #10 role he'd played the first 2 games when de Leon did not play.

[Robert]

One game at a time. First thing first. Right now our greatest concern must be Jamaica and Deon Burton. He did us in last time and I noticed he's still scoring. Twice during one of their matches in the previous round, and he also came on as a sub in their other game.

As prepared as our player and coaches may be for this campaign, what's even more vital is how well prepared is the CSA for this upcoming round? After all, they are responsible for anticipating any challenges that could arise during this round.