statistics in soccer

[putkaputka]

didnt know where to put this in - kinda also builds on the thread below how no one in the US is unterested in soccer

but anyways, do you think a moneyball system exists in soccer.

I never played under a coach who used it and certainly didn't know that Zelentsov cut a 40-strong team to 20 for the Euro 88

I remeber that game -- what a goal from van Basten.

here is the atricle.

Mr. Beane's love affair with soccer

A's boss a diehard fan of Hotspur and has vowed to help San Jose club get back in MLS picture

August 21, 2007

Cathal Kelly

Sports reporter

For a man paid to unravel the mysteries of baseball, Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane spends a lot of time thinking about soccer for free.

There are as many as five – count 'em, five – hours each day spent listening to soccer podcasts ("on long walks with my dog and during my commute"). There are TiVo'd Premiership games and the heartache that comes with a devotion to Tottenham Hotspur.

Then there is the nightly tug-of-war with his wife.

"She wants to watch the baseball highlights on (ESPN's) SportsCenter. I want to watch Fox Soccer Channel," Beane said.

His interest was piqued during a 2003 trip to England to watch the rugby World Cup finals. While there, Beane couldn't help noticing that nation's other game – football – and something else.

"I saw the passion, but I also saw emotion. And where there's emotion, there is an opportunity."

Beane came home with a new curiosity, which he shared with colleagues and A's owner Lew Wolff.

Last summer, Beane, Wolff and the rest of Oakland's top brass skipped out on their day jobs to travel to Germany for a week during the World Cup. The fever really took hold then.

"I've become a rabid, passionate fan," Beane said.

His tutors in the game include his counterpart at Spurs – director of football Damien Comolli.

Moved as much by Beane's enthusiasm as business calculations, Wolff decided to provide his employee with a new toy. Last month, he and partner John Fisher agreed to resuscitate the defunct Major League Soccer franchise, the San Jose Earthquakes.

"The downside is relatively comfortable and the upside is unknown," Wolff said in Toronto recently, where he was attending the baseball owners' meetings.

San Jose will rejoin MLS next season. For now, Beane has an informal involvement with the team that includes an office in the Earthquakes' temporary headquarters.

"It's something I want to help grow," Beane said, at pains to point out he's not leaving the A's. But, "at some point, I anticipate that involvement growing."

He won't offer any more than that. However, it is curious that three times during a short phone conversation Beane praises assistant GM David Forst's ability to run the baseball team without him.

"I feel like we've got two GMs here anyway," Beane said.

It is impossible to talk about Beane without mentioning his baseball philosophy. Beane championed the outsider idea that certain statistics revealed more about a player's quality than physical makeup or mere observation could.

Given legitimacy by Beane, the movement became pejoratively known as Moneyball, after the title of the 2003 book in which the Oakland GM starred. Though Beane has enjoyed remarkable success with the small-market A's, his ideas are still controversial in the baseball fraternity.

Maybe that's why he talks so cautiously about bringing the same philosophies to assembling a soccer team.

"Everybody in sport is using some sort of objective analysis," Beane said. "The biggest key is collecting and utilizing data that is linear to winning games."

The most obvious hurdle is the dearth of statistical data in soccer as compared to baseball.

"I'm too respectful of the sport to say I have the formula for success," Beane said. "But it's something we'd like to explore."

The world soccer equivalent to Billy Beane and the A's is Anatoly Zelentsov and Dynamo Kiev.

In the 1970s and '80s, Zelentsov was the Ukrainian scientist who brought an early version of objective analysis to the world's most popular sport.

Dynamo Kiev's players were taught a series of computer-designed plays and warned against improvising. The field was dissected into grids. Players slid into the grids assigned to them, knowing beforehand with iron certainty whether or not they were due to receive the ball. The result was Total Football with an enormous brain and no heart. Dynamo players were often likened to robots.

But the results spoke for themselves. An underfunded club from a satellite nation dominated the Soviet soccer system for decades and twice won the European Cup Winner's Cup – in 1975 and 1986.

Once the wall came down, top western clubs snatched up Dynamo's biggest stars. Most were abysmal failures once removed from Zelentsov's system.

Dynamo not only used computer models to train the team. They were also used to pick it. Measures that tested reflexes (by, for instance, hitting the same keyboard button as quickly as possible over a long interval) or memory games were thought to reveal a player's true speed and intelligence.

It sounded wacky, but Zelentsov was invited to use his tools to winnow down a 40-player pool to a 20-man Soviet squad. The team chosen by Zelentsov's computer was sent to the 1988 European Championships, where they were surprise finalists.

Right now, Beane doesn't have a system, just the belief that one must exist.

"In everything, there is something. It's just having the ability to mine the linear data from all the background noise," Beane said.

He's even more certain about soccer's future in America.

"It's the vacuum effect. You have the world's richest country. And you have the world's biggest sport. `Collision' is the wrong word, but the vacuum is going to have to be filled."

That "collision" became apparent to him this summer in an unlikely venue – on HBO. In an episode of the hit series Entourage, the show's star, a Hollywood actor named Vincent Chase, spends an afternoon watching a Manchester United game at Dennis Hopper's house.

The episode didn't get it all right – wrong players, wrong games. But it was English soccer in America's coolest homes.

"It's not just sports culture anymore," Beane said. "Now it's become pop culture."

Beane talks down his own knowledge, which seems considerable – he chats easily about the quality of Fernando Torres' "touches" or Arsene Wenger's scouting coups.

If Beane's history is any indicator, his hoovering for raw data will soon transform itself into profitable play on the field.

"I don't pretend to have any answers," Beane said. "I'm just hungry to find them."

[Soju]

Sounds like a cool guy. Good article thanks for posting!

[Canuck Oranje]

Didn't Zelentsov just pass away? I thought I read that somewhere this week.

I had read this article and will be curious to see how Beane does.

I think there still is a big opportunity for modest clubs and leagues to perform at levels above expectations primarily because there are still a lot of dinosaurs in charge in the game globally. There are still a lot of arbitrage opportunities in player valuations. MLS is one league that could benefit from a more sophisticated approach to coaching and player selection.

Interestingly, Van Basten's coach in the Euro 88 tournament, Rinus Michels, also had a very controlling approach to the game. Ironically, it was a near player revolt to that system that led to the compromise we now know as "total soccer".

Soccer is also a sport where time spent on closer examination of what leads to success could yield to a much higher return. Interestingly, Coerver (a famed Dutch development coach) coaching videos of the Van Basten goal in Euro 88 emphasize what other players did on that play that led to Van Basten having the opportunity to take the shot. The casual fan, of course, gives all the credit to Van Basten.

I don't think there is necessarily one country that is ahead of another in this regard but I do think there are already teams using this approach. While I don't know which teams would be using some form of this, I suspect there are some aspects being used at big clubs with more sophisicated coaches(in terms of training and education) like Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal as well as smaller clubs with unusual success like Heerenveen (Neth), and Barueri (Brazil). I also wouldn't be surprised if clubs like Ajax and FC Copenhagen use some form.

quote:Originally posted by putkaputka

didnt know where to put this in - kinda also builds on the thread below how no one in the US is unterested in soccer

but anyways, do you think a moneyball system exists in soccer.

I never played under a coach who used it and certainly didn't know that Zelentsov cut a 40-strong team to 20 for the Euro 88

I remeber that game -- what a goal from van Basten.

here is the atricle.

Mr. Beane's love affair with soccer

A's boss a diehard fan of Hotspur and has vowed to help San Jose club get back in MLS picture

August 21, 2007

Cathal Kelly

Sports reporter

For a man paid to unravel the mysteries of baseball, Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane spends a lot of time thinking about soccer for free.

There are as many as five – count 'em, five – hours each day spent listening to soccer podcasts ("on long walks with my dog and during my commute"). There are TiVo'd Premiership games and the heartache that comes with a devotion to Tottenham Hotspur.

Then there is the nightly tug-of-war with his wife.

"She wants to watch the baseball highlights on (ESPN's) SportsCenter. I want to watch Fox Soccer Channel," Beane said.

His interest was piqued during a 2003 trip to England to watch the rugby World Cup finals. While there, Beane couldn't help noticing that nation's other game – football – and something else.

"I saw the passion, but I also saw emotion. And where there's emotion, there is an opportunity."

Beane came home with a new curiosity, which he shared with colleagues and A's owner Lew Wolff.

Last summer, Beane, Wolff and the rest of Oakland's top brass skipped out on their day jobs to travel to Germany for a week during the World Cup. The fever really took hold then.

"I've become a rabid, passionate fan," Beane said.

His tutors in the game include his counterpart at Spurs – director of football Damien Comolli.

Moved as much by Beane's enthusiasm as business calculations, Wolff decided to provide his employee with a new toy. Last month, he and partner John Fisher agreed to resuscitate the defunct Major League Soccer franchise, the San Jose Earthquakes.

"The downside is relatively comfortable and the upside is unknown," Wolff said in Toronto recently, where he was attending the baseball owners' meetings.

San Jose will rejoin MLS next season. For now, Beane has an informal involvement with the team that includes an office in the Earthquakes' temporary headquarters.

"It's something I want to help grow," Beane said, at pains to point out he's not leaving the A's. But, "at some point, I anticipate that involvement growing."

He won't offer any more than that. However, it is curious that three times during a short phone conversation Beane praises assistant GM David Forst's ability to run the baseball team without him.

"I feel like we've got two GMs here anyway," Beane said.

It is impossible to talk about Beane without mentioning his baseball philosophy. Beane championed the outsider idea that certain statistics revealed more about a player's quality than physical makeup or mere observation could.

Given legitimacy by Beane, the movement became pejoratively known as Moneyball, after the title of the 2003 book in which the Oakland GM starred. Though Beane has enjoyed remarkable success with the small-market A's, his ideas are still controversial in the baseball fraternity.

Maybe that's why he talks so cautiously about bringing the same philosophies to assembling a soccer team.

"Everybody in sport is using some sort of objective analysis," Beane said. "The biggest key is collecting and utilizing data that is linear to winning games."

The most obvious hurdle is the dearth of statistical data in soccer as compared to baseball.

"I'm too respectful of the sport to say I have the formula for success," Beane said. "But it's something we'd like to explore."

The world soccer equivalent to Billy Beane and the A's is Anatoly Zelentsov and Dynamo Kiev.

In the 1970s and '80s, Zelentsov was the Ukrainian scientist who brought an early version of objective analysis to the world's most popular sport.

Dynamo Kiev's players were taught a series of computer-designed plays and warned against improvising. The field was dissected into grids. Players slid into the grids assigned to them, knowing beforehand with iron certainty whether or not they were due to receive the ball. The result was Total Football with an enormous brain and no heart. Dynamo players were often likened to robots.

But the results spoke for themselves. An underfunded club from a satellite nation dominated the Soviet soccer system for decades and twice won the European Cup Winner's Cup – in 1975 and 1986.

Once the wall came down, top western clubs snatched up Dynamo's biggest stars. Most were abysmal failures once removed from Zelentsov's system.

Dynamo not only used computer models to train the team. They were also used to pick it. Measures that tested reflexes (by, for instance, hitting the same keyboard button as quickly as possible over a long interval) or memory games were thought to reveal a player's true speed and intelligence.

It sounded wacky, but Zelentsov was invited to use his tools to winnow down a 40-player pool to a 20-man Soviet squad. The team chosen by Zelentsov's computer was sent to the 1988 European Championships, where they were surprise finalists.

Right now, Beane doesn't have a system, just the belief that one must exist.

"In everything, there is something. It's just having the ability to mine the linear data from all the background noise," Beane said.

He's even more certain about soccer's future in America.

"It's the vacuum effect. You have the world's richest country. And you have the world's biggest sport. `Collision' is the wrong word, but the vacuum is going to have to be filled."

That "collision" became apparent to him this summer in an unlikely venue – on HBO. In an episode of the hit series Entourage, the show's star, a Hollywood actor named Vincent Chase, spends an afternoon watching a Manchester United game at Dennis Hopper's house.

The episode didn't get it all right – wrong players, wrong games. But it was English soccer in America's coolest homes.

"It's not just sports culture anymore," Beane said. "Now it's become pop culture."

Beane talks down his own knowledge, which seems considerable – he chats easily about the quality of Fernando Torres' "touches" or Arsene Wenger's scouting coups.

If Beane's history is any indicator, his hoovering for raw data will soon transform itself into profitable play on the field.

"I don't pretend to have any answers," Beane said. "I'm just hungry to find them."

[putkaputka]

Its just very difficult for a small team to have the resources to keep the volume of statistics necessary.. In that respect, I think baseball lends itself to stats collection better.

Keeping track of 22 people on the field and their movement away from the ball, would be just too taxing I think for smaller clubs, unless you have software to do it.

And to find value you need a reliable system across the board because otherwise you end up with the human factor of simply having a good scout with vision for talent.

I think there are currently two systems to do that – computer based algorithms that track players movement from a video feed and GPS based. Both technologies will cost less and less in the long term, so it would be interesting to see who utilizes them better. I think they are already used for physical conditioning, but I am not sure they are used for collecting some meaningful stats that you could compare players on beyond the obvious pass completion/tackes won, etc.shots on goal bull****, which anyone with an eye for the game does not really need to evaluate a player.

[Guest speedmonk42]

quote:Originally posted by putkaputka

Its just very difficult for a small team to have the resources to keep the volume of statistics necessary.. In that respect, I think baseball lends itself to stats collection better.

Keeping track of 22 people on the field and their movement away from the ball, would be just too taxing I think for smaller clubs, unless you have software to do it.

And to find value you need a reliable system across the board because otherwise you end up with the human factor of simply having a good scout with vision for talent.

I think there are currently two systems to do that – computer based algorithms that track players movement from a video feed and GPS based. Both technologies will cost less and less in the long term, so it would be interesting to see who utilizes them better. I think they are already used for physical conditioning, but I am not sure they are used for collecting some meaningful stats that you could compare players on beyond the obvious pass completion/tackes won, etc.shots on goal bull****, which anyone with an eye for the game does not really need to evaluate a player.

Hardcore data collection for soccer was actually started at UBC by Dr Ian Franks. A lot of the systems use people to track every player while drawing their movements onto a tablet as the game plays. they also enter events into a keyboard.

Some of the information pulled from it and other systems has been very interesting. I have seen a few presentations used with that kind of data and it often reveals things that are not obvious.

[putkaputka]

speedmonk -- do you have any links.

I googled the name and this guy seens involved in some interesting projects.

What were the surprising things? Was there a discussion on causation v. correlation.

using people to input the stats, however, has gotta be doomed at this point. too much resources. the best would be comp. based algorith and you can upload all the games you want and obtain results almost immediately depending on CPU.

problem is we do not have a SABR type society...

[Canuck Oranje]

One of the reasons I mentioned a smaller club like Barueri is because a seminar at the University of Worcester sponsored by the English FA had a class lectured by the following individual:

Fernando Seabra

Topic: Match Analysis of UK and Brazilian Football

Background: Masters student at the University of São Paulo and Match analyst of G.R. Barueri (Brazil)

Award of one of the best-presented papers at the VII World Congress Performance Analysis of Sports (Hungary, August 2006)

Football coach to various Brazilian youth teams

http://www.worcester.ac.uk/departments/7868.html

Also this thread on BigSoccer may interest you.

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=63798&page=14