rdroze Posted July 20, 2007 Share Posted July 20, 2007 I think it's great that there's talk of adding more Canadian teams to MLS, and I clearly understand the desire, but how realistic is this? I'm curious to know what other people think the real likelihood is of getting one or two more Canadian MLS teams in the mid-range future. What's the likelihood that within 8 years there will be two Canadian teams in MLS? What's the likelihood that within 8 years there will be three Canadian teams in the MLS? I don't think it's likely at all, what with the massive list of other cities already on the radar, and MLS's stated desire to grow slowly. My answers to those two questions would be about 25% and 2% respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ted Posted July 20, 2007 Share Posted July 20, 2007 quote:Originally posted by rdroze What's the likelihood that within 8 years there will be two Canadian teams in MLS? What's the likelihood that within 8 years there will be three Canadian teams in the MLS? 8 years? I'd say the prospects as of today are 99.9% for two teams and 98.9% for three. As soon as the stadiums are finished in Montreal and Vancouver those two cities will be in the MLS. Both cities have long-standing teams and money to back them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gian-Luca Posted July 20, 2007 Share Posted July 20, 2007 With Saputo now publicly admitting that he wants into MLS the chances are much greater. The only question is going to be how quickly the MLS wants to have more Canadian teams in it, and the stadium issues that have to be resolved in Vancouver. A third question might be if Saputo changes his mind again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jeffery S. Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 MLS cannot expand indefinitely. You cannot end up with a huge number of teams and then have a chaotic, unbalanced schedule. That would be too North American. I think they will stop at 16 or maybe 18. I could imagine one more in Canada of those four. It is all about spreading around the market and appealing to regional interest and tv audiences. Logically you would have to put a team in the north-west and another in the south-east to cover the map a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gian-Luca Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 quote:Originally posted by Jeffrey S. I think they will stop at 16 or maybe 18. I could imagine one more in Canada of those four. It is all about spreading around the market and appealing to regional interest and tv audiences. I can see them going up to 20, particularly if 3 of those teams are Canadian. I realize that it will still mean an un-balanced schedule (even at 20 teams, if each team played the other twice that would mean a 38 game schedule, too many games) but with the geography for the league being so much larger than most leagues an imbalanced schedule, where some teams (the ones that are a continent apart) might only play each other once a season, might be justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPB Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 Are there any MLS teams struggling today? Maybe vaccancies will make more room for new teams in the future. Or for relocations. Maybe even mergers, given the owners who have more than one team today. Anyone have an inkling of which teams are "good" candidates for dropping out of the league in the next several years? I do think that the odds are pretty good for two more Canadian-based teams in the MLS. At some point the league will have to construct a promotion/relegation scheme with other leagues in the USA/Canada. That may be how the league could grow to, say, 18 teams, and then cut back (through relegation of 4 teams perhaps and promotion of 2 teams) while building up a second league. Either way, I think Montreal and Vancouver will be good competition for any US city seeking an MLS franchise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvroArrow Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 The only problem with having a "2nd" division is that I can't see a potential owner paying a mult-million dollar entrance fee for a new tam and then having himself thrown into a lower division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPB Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 A 2nd division provides both the opportunity to free-up spots in the 1st division and a means by which to enter the 1st division? Also, a 2nd division franchise would come with a lower entry cost. The big investment comes with promotion and sustaining a spot in the higher competition. It could also be combined with an "FA Cup type" contest that promotes a non-MLS winning team. All kinds of ways can be created to grow the big league slowly without rejecting the many cities that would compete for an MLS franchise. A promotion that is earned would probably meet all of the current requirements for an MLS franchise in terms of new statidums and so forth -- at least for a decade or so of growth in top flight soccer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macksam Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 Promotion and relegation isn't financially feasible. Any team that gets relegated from the MLS will probably lose all fan interest and sink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 by that logic wouldn't most USL teams have crumbled when MLS came about? I think that if the american audiences were introduced to promotion and relegation they'd like the idear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarnCherry Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 quote:Originally posted by Juby by that logic wouldn't most USL teams have crumbled when MLS came about? I think that if the american audiences were introduced to promotion and relegation they'd like the idear. No because fans of the USL teams were quite aware of the level of play and support the teams accordingly. MLS fans are fans of that level of play, they won't give a crap about their teams if they drop to what they consider "minor league". MLS teams are franchises that their owners pay greatly for. They pay to play at the MLS level. They aren't going to do that if there is a chance of relegation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macksam Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 Yeah, promotion and relegation might happen maybe 70 years down the road, if even that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 Whilst I personally very much approve of the promotion and relegation scheme, I don't think the nature of North American sports business could cope with it and neither could the fans. I can't see people continuing to support a club to anywhere near the same degree if a club were say relegated from MLS to USL-1, or from the NHL to the minor hockey leagues. There is just too different a sports culture from places like Europe where relegation/promotion works just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxl Boy Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 Look at the Japan example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 quote:Originally posted by Bxl Boy Look at the Japan example Can you elaborate? not too familiar with what's going on in Japan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact supporter Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 quote:Originally posted by jpg75 Can you elaborate? not too familiar with what's going on in Japan... You may find this site a help re: soccer in Japan http://www.wldcup.com/Asia/jleague/index.html The J-League (or Japanese Professional Soccer League) has two divisions with promotion and relegation. There are strict criteria for entering the J-League re: quality and size of stadiums, financial stability, organizational stucture. Each club MUST have a stadium that can hold 15 000 people (for J1) and 12 000 people (for J2), The clubs MUST be part of the community (and have the name of the community in its title) and play an active role in promoting sport in that community. The clubs have to be owned by organizations whose primary purpose is sport (i.e. company teams for example Honda FC are NOT allowed in J1 or J2) and must have sufficiant revenue streams. Below J1 and J2 is the JFL (Japan Football League) which has company teams, university teams. Promotion to J2 is NOT automatic and is only open to stand alone teams that meet the above mentioned criteria of ownership and finances. Then there are the Regional and Prefectural Leagues and there is promotion/relegation betweeen it and the JFL. The JFL and regional leagues are considered amateur. If we were to apply this to North America (Canada/USA), the MLS, USL 1 and USL 2 would be considered professional, the NPSL and PDL, and all provincial, state leagues and CSL would be considered amateur. (or PDL could become an official reserve league, while NPSL becomes a national amateur league, with promotion relegation between it and provincial and state leagues) If the Japanese criteria were to be applied to the MLS, USL-1 and USL-2 structures, there would have to be AT LEAST 40 to 50 franchises (or clubs) that would be capable of handling promotion and relegation (which is not the case right now). These clubs would have to be full club structure (with reserve and youth sides), would NOT be company or ethnic clubs (like Toronto Croatia or New York Red Bull, I don't know why that was allowed in MLS), would have stable attendance and be well advertised (no California Victory or Miami FC - currently in USL1 - which draw crowds in the 100's). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Much as many of us would prefer it, if the MLS/USL took the Japanese approach they would both wither and die. The American psyche would not be able to accept it, too big a cultural gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted July 24, 2007 Share Posted July 24, 2007 Thanks for the lowdown Impact Supporter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nolando Posted July 24, 2007 Share Posted July 24, 2007 quote:Originally posted by Richard Much as many of us would prefer it, if the MLS/USL took the Japanese approach they would both wither and die. The American psyche would not be able to accept it, too big a cultural gap. I'm not so sure...I think it could work, and work quite well...North American sports teams often die a slow death after years of mediocre results, with no hope of a championship to play for and nothing but draft position to play for, although lotteries took even that small pleasure away for the most part. I could easily see the same thing happening to TFC down the road, if the Canadian-quota issue isn't properly resolved, and if the team still stinks in five years (I still stick to my Grizzlies analogy) Relegation battles sell seats (a proven fact all throughout Europe) and imcreases pride in teams and increases community involvement. Look what happens when an NHL or MLB team comes close to moving after years of poor attendance - the better sporting cities rally and try to fight to keep their team, suddenly coming up with cash and supporters than many didn't think existed. This same thing happens when football clubs are fighting relegation, and it happens every season where that is a possibility. Heck, for some clubs it is an annual occurence that reminds communities how much they value their clubs. In contrast, nobody wants to go and see a team that the are sure is heading for bankruptcy and/or relocation, the only thing traditional North American sports offer fans of poor-drawing/performing sides. I think if you started small, you could definitely start a MLS Division 2. Start with the ten or so cities that want an MLS side, those that see no long-term future with with the USL. Let Montreal and Vancouver and Seattle and Portland, etc. prove to the MLS bigwigs and founding clubs that they are ready for MLS Div. 1 by fielding a proper team, putting marketing into place, sorting out stadium issues over the long term, and auditioning, as it were, in MLS2. As has happened in Scotland and in Japan, a team (like Vancouver at the moment, for example) might not be able to promote due to stadium or financial limitations, and thus will stay in MLS2 even if they qualify for promotion until they sort things out- more incentive to push a stadium plan forward from the club's and the city's point a view. Better for the long-term stability of the league as well. The MLS2 franchise fee could conceivably be (and should perhaps be)cheaper than the going rate for a MLS1 side (as TFC paid). You could have an extra financial barrier kick in that clubs must pay before promoting to MLS 1, something to make it seem fair to current MLS 1 sides, and something to keep the MLS 2 clubs with good sides but shakey finances from overextending themselves into non-existence. The only doubts I have are if you could connect relegation/promotion any further down the ladder, and how future MLS2 teams are brought in. I would personally stop and MLS1 and MLS2 and only tinker when a MLS2 side is fading off the map and needs to be replaced (at the end of a season, of course) with a promising USL 1 side. You could have the same set-up as the J-Leagues whereby a team winning the USL League 1 or coming second are the only ones even considered for promotion. This is one sticky point, as American pro-sports leagues seem to like to start from scratch in some cities, with huge success in some cases, as with the NHL push into some of the southern US cities. So maybe you reserve the right to add new clubs from scratch (even after the initial unveiling of MLS2), as long as they have the stadiums and the cash to compete. I really don't see why more people on this board don't support the idea, even on just the conceptual level. This could happen for the next MLS season with some vision, certainly the following season. The clubs and stadiums already exist, for the most part. I really think it is just a mental block that it in the way. Just as many couldn't imagine a MLS team outside the States, or TFC filling 20,000 seats regularly, or an NHL team in Dallas, or lacrosse drawing more than a few thousand, I think this may be a case of "build it and they will come". North Americans love competition, love underdogs, love cheering for home cities, love a good drama, all of the kinds of experiences that would be enhanced by adding a proper MLS second devision. People support USL1 in many cities - why wouldn't they come out support the same teams in the same stadiums if the league was now called MLS2 and if their team had a chance to compete with the best in North America? Also, MLS fans are often not necessarily fans of other big North American sports (take immigrants from footballing countries, for instance), and this isn't a 100-year old league with traditionalist fans to appease (as with MLB or NHL, for example), so they should be more open to the idea than fans of other sports. And what better way to draw in the European immigrants and children of those same immigrants, who are still doubtful of MLS, then by giving something that looks exactly like what is offered up in England or Italy or in most other proper footballing nations? And it's not like MLS is some perfect success story that shouldnt be tinkered with - it, like many new companies/entities is a work in progress, and could actually serve as a model for other sports leagues down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted July 24, 2007 Share Posted July 24, 2007 The idea of promotion isn't the problem, relegation is! Imagine the money spent by the Galaxy and them playing D2 next season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarnCherry Posted July 24, 2007 Share Posted July 24, 2007 This system isn't needed here. It's not Europe and it's not Japan. quote:Relegation battles sell seats (a proven fact all throughout Europe) and imcreases pride in teams and increases community involvement. In the USL-1 and in I believe it happens in the MLS, playoff games have a drop off in attendance (huge in some cases in the USL-1), merely due to the time of year it is (back to school for kids) and the sports they are playing their games up against (MLB playoffs, NFL football kicking into high gear etc...) Why would we believe these same "fans" would start filling the park (selling seats as you say) to come and watch their teams avoid relegation when they don't even come out to watch their teams fight for the championship? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJB Posted July 24, 2007 Share Posted July 24, 2007 quote:Originally posted by Daniel The idea of promotion isn't the problem, relegation is! Imagine the money spent by the Galaxy and them playing D2 next season! Relegation would force teams to be smarter with the money that they spend in order to guarantee that they don't get relegated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarnCherry Posted July 24, 2007 Share Posted July 24, 2007 quote:Originally posted by RJB Relegation would force teams to be smarter with the money that they spend in order to guarantee that they don't get relegated. So they should just do away with franchise fees then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted July 24, 2007 Share Posted July 24, 2007 I tend to be more interested in the relegation battles then the domestic cups, I don't think it's all that bad of a point that these games could spur on increased viewership despite tendencies. Also I think that people saying americans won't be interested in following a team into a second division is an assumption and not a fact, there is a huge difference between a promotion relegation system and the main league and minor league system of north america, that kind of divide makes the gulf of quality huge, where as promotion relegation tends to improve the quality of the lower leagues (the english championship league is alot more interesting then the OHL and I think that if the north american public was introduced to pro rel system, they'd agree). I think the idea of promotion and relegation is basically superior and would sell itself to an american market, they haven't really seen it before so you can't say without a doubt that americans would prefer the old system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarnCherry Posted July 24, 2007 Share Posted July 24, 2007 So you are saying that if TFC ended up in USL-1 or MLS-2 (same difference) they'd do just great? I don't think so. Crowds would drop to under 5,000 a game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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