TFC/ future Canadian MLS team crisis

[nolando]

quote:Originally posted by Cheeta

Hard to argue against. Mo isn't in a position to dump any of his Canadians who have a reasonable chance at playing.

Higher paid, lower paid or whatever. What's the alternative?

Yeah, MC2 and Mo are not hitting it off. And I'm not sure that's all Mo's fault. Canizalez may not have the energy for MLS. He's just a poor fit for this league.

That being said, Mo hasn't realy displayed any surprising managment qualities. He's for all intents and purposes a rookie and it's shown. He's spent much of the year casting about trying to find players who he's imagined would fit his scheme of play instead of recognizing his player pool limitations and tooling around that. I expect Mo will be given one more year to show improvement we'll see what happens with that.

(And isn't that interesting? We're learning as much about our MNT player pool, the fringes anyway, from those who're failing as by those who're succeeding. Huh. Shouldn't be surprised I guess, but that's a MLS angle we don't often discuss).

I'd overlooked the fact that TFC is indeed a weeding out process for our MNT - that in itself is nothing to scoff at. Now, I really hope that it's the SUCCESS that some of the MNT fringe players have at TC that is what we learn more about rather than these more common failures.

Do many people really think that Sutton and Kenny will be a one-two tandem next year, especially with Sutton's mediocre performance before the injury, and also given his salary?

And who's coming in to replace these guys, whether highly paid or lower paid? Surely none of the reserves will be ready for next year, right? What do you guys think?

[BearcatSA]

quote:Originally posted by Cheeta

(And isn't that interesting? We're learning as much about our MNT player pool, the fringes anyway, from those who're failing as by those who're succeeding. Huh. Shouldn't be surprised I guess, but that's a MLS angle we don't often discuss).

I like the way you think outside the box. However, there are examples where a player struggles in his club situation for a host of reasons yet does well at MNT level, whereas another may be unable to translate his club level sucess to the MNT stage.

[Guest speedmonk42]

I don't think you can underestimate the impact TFC will have on the top 100 or so players in the GTA who now have something in their back yard to work for, and an adademy to shoot for.

I am talking psychological impact on players we know are there, but have never really had a reason to go the extra mile required.

Now they do.

If handled right(the academy), I think we could see some young players come through quickly in the next few years.

[VPjr]

it will take years before TFC can be expected to live up to the expectations some posters have for the club being a mini national team.

As a TFC supporter, I want my team to win and I don't care of they field 11 americans or 11 canadians to do it. I'd like Canadians to be part of the squad but it's not a condition of my support for the team.

the academy will certainly help produce 1 or 2 homegrown talents and when that happens, i think the people who are currently dissatisfied will start to cheer up.

the real problem is that, outside of the top 35-40 players in the national team pool, the rest of the Canadians playing pro are likely not good enough to be regular contributors to a successful MLS side. Unfortunately, most of those top 40 guys make a good living playing outside the MLS (with some exceptions). TFC will forever be handicapped by that sad reality.

[Free kick]

quote:Originally posted by VPjr

the academy will certainly help produce 1 or 2 homegrown talents and when that happens, i think the people who are currently dissatisfied will start to cheer up.

the real problem is that, outside of the top 35-40 players in the national team pool, the rest of the Canadians playing pro are likely not good enough to be regular contributors to a successful MLS side.

Well I hope that when its been up and going, and in existence for a few years, the number will be much larger than just one or two. Ideally, it would have to be at least a dozen. One or two might be the number that will eventually end up at TFC others may end up fetching transfer $$$ for MLSEL from Europe or elsewhere in North America.

Don't forget, if you take a look at the CSA documents on their web site pertaining to players registration across Canada, the southern Ontario numbers are immense. Even if you take into account population numbers in Canada, the junior and senior youth player numbers in Ontario ( i.e.: likely southern Ontario) are by far and away the largest in the country. Its something like 44-46% whereas the second highest number ( something like only 10%) is in Quebec. The numbers are more imposing for Ontario when you factor in that retention of junior players to senior and that fact outside Ontario, the numbers tend skew to towards female numbers.

So, in short, they have got a massive pool to work with to start things off. If you harness that pool in professional setting under the guidance and input of top professionals who know and understand the game ( as opposed to volunteers whose credentials are unchecked), you should easily be able to produce numbers in the upwards of 75-85% of the national team player pools. That number will drop if Mtl and Van get in MLS and do the same thing.

******

The 35-40 players number in the national team pool who could help TFC, is IMO a little generous. By my estimate, I would include players like Stalteri, Hume, Klukowski and some of the second division players in Germany. In total, maybe half a dozen to a dozen. Beyond that, I and not sure that that would represent an upgrade from what we currently have. For example, I am not convinced that Gerba is an upgrade from what we currently have. Aside from Samuel. Thats why the academy is essential.

[VPjr]

The odds of an elite youth player becoming a significant professional player is likely in the range of 1 in 20,000 or more. I don't remember what the odds are of a 16 year old AAA Midget Hockey player making the NHL but i recall it's like 1 in 10,000. I would suggest a 16 year old elite rep soccer player in Canada has even slimmer odds of playing pro soccer because the global talent pool is way larger in soccer than in hockey.

Therefore, if TFC's academy develops a 1 new player annually who can move into their lineup, that would be decent. 2 academy developed Canadians moving into TFC lineup each year would be a smashing success. Remember before they would graduate to the senior roster, a TFC academy player would still need to be better than anyone they can buy on the open market (or at least very good and cheaper than what can be bought on the open market)....it's a competitive business.

TFC definitely has a huge pool to work with...a huge, RAW pool. It's going to take time to start turning this raw talent into polished gems but it will certainly happen. However, to assume that 80+ percent of the MNT pool will come out of the TFC academy is quite ambitious, to be polite.

Remember, TFC doesn't get to operate in isolation. First, foreign clubs are setting up their own academies here in Ontario to root out our best talent, which they can take back to Europe. Will the best players in Ontario choose to accept an invitation to TFC's academy or, for instance, will they choose to enter a Man U or Everton affiliated academy? Unless MLS allows DEV players to make more than $14,000 per year, I'd bet a good number of kids will take their chances with the Euro academy. Plus, there will be some players who will take the DeGuzman route and just pick up and move their lives to Europe to enter an academy of a pro team over there. Finally, the other youth clubs in Ontario will not sit back and let TFC steal all their best players. TFC's academy will create competition for the best players. The youth clubs will have to invest in superior coaching, improve their training facilities, maybe enter into "joint ventures" with other clubs in Canada or overseas, etc... to give their best players from taking off for greener pastures. To survive, they will have to adapt and improve, which I am confident some clubs will do. Some good players will still continue to come out of the local clubs and other elite development programs, like they always have.

[trueviking]

i think the bigger issue is low MLS salaries, not the canadian talent pool....the team is incredibly thin because of this...you dont have to incur very many injuries before you are relying on a guy who makes $30k or less to step in and perform.

[trueviking]

i agree...if the CFL, a league that averages nearly 30 000 spectators a game and has big TV audiences can only manage 8 teams in canada, i would think that 3 MLS teams and possibly a USL team or two would be the best we can expect for a fringe sport in this country.

there are only 6 major league hockey teams for goodness sake.

quote:Originally posted by Free kick

[VPjr]

quote:Originally posted by trueviking

i agree...if the CFL, a league that averages nearly 30 000 spectators a game and has big TV audiences can only manage 8 teams in canada, i would think that 3 MLS teams and possibly a USL team or two would be the best we can expect for a fringe sport in this country.

there are only 6 major league hockey teams for goodness sake.

trueviking, you make very good points.

If Canada has only 8-9 CFL teams, 6 NHL teams, 1 NBA team, 1 MLB team and a handful of lacrosse teams, how can we expect more than 4-6 pro soccer teams.

It's my belief that a full blown professional soccer league in Canada simply wont fly and wont be able to compete against the MLS. I'd love to be more optimistic but I just can't. If we are lucky, MLS will grant Canada 2 more teams in Montreal and Vancouver for a total of 3. If this happens, I would hope 2 or 3 other Canadian cities step into the void left in USL1 by the departure of Whitecaps and Impact so that we still have teams in that league. I have no idea which cities would be viable but there is bound to be a few (maybe Ottawa, Victoria, Mississauga, Oakville, Calgary, Winnipeg, etc...)

However, that does not mean a league of some sort is not possible. We could come up with a unique, Made in Canada solution to our player development challenges. If Canada has one thing, we have a lot of youth clubs, most of whom have elite (rep) programs. Most of those programs end at U18 or U19 from what I understand. If we could get, as a start, 8-10 clubs in each region of Canada to set up a semi-pro U21 team, you might be able to keep 18 year olds playing because they have something to strive for. A U21 league could fill the void we have in Canada because we don't have a university soccer program that compares to NCAA. We have no feeder systems for the pro leagues so our better players are forced to go down south on scholarship if they want to stick with soccer after high school. Let's keep our best here, pay them a small amount to cover expenses, cover post secondary education costs if necessary and create the soccer equivalent to the CHL.

[Aljarov]

I'd like to see a conference in Canada, probably wouldn'thappen due to travel costs, but 5 teams out of an ultimate 20 in MLS would be ideal. I think 3 is more likely. And we might need to see 20 teams to see that, if at all.

My 5? Dunno - probably the 3 obvious ones, plus from Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto #2, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Quebec.

That's 8-9 teams, tops.

[File under pipe-dream]

[MikeD]

What are the chances that MLS will raise the salary cap?

If that were to happen, TFC would have a much better chance of being able to sign one of two more "Brennans" (by which I mean Canadians playing at a high level in Europe who can come over and by impact players in MLS).

If I were the manager of TFC or another Canadian MLS team (assuming no major salary cap increase or change to the foreign player rules), I would have fewer expensive foreign players like Carl Robinson. These guys are are doubly expensive because they take up an senior international player slot AND a big chunk of cap space. I'm not saying that there should be NO such players, just fewer than the number TFC are carrying. (IMO, Marvel Wynne and Jeff Cunningham are well worth their salaries and the international slots they take up, but everybody else, even O'Brien and Dichio, should be looked at to see if there's a similarly-priced Canadian who could take their place).

This would open up cap space for signing quality overseas Canadians like Brennan (other Canadians who would be impact players in MLS and could likely be signed for high-end MLS salaries would be guys like Klukowski, Simpson, Bernier, DeVos, Imhoff, Friend, Gerba, Occean, Hume, etc...). I'd use the international slots this would open up to sign cheaper foreigners to give the team some depth (like American MLS journeymen or signings from out the Caribbean or Central American leagues). TFC should be investing in scouting CONCACAF for decent players who can be brought in relatively cheap.

Just my two cents.

[Ryan Keay]

quote:Originally posted by MikeD

What are the chances that MLS will raise the salary cap?

If that were to happen, TFC would have a much better chance of being able to sign one of two more "Brennans" (by which I mean Canadians playing at a high level in Europe who can come over and by impact players in MLS).

If I were the manager of TFC or another Canadian MLS team (assuming no major salary cap increase or change to the foreign player rules), I would have fewer expensive foreign players like Carl Robinson. These guys are are doubly expensive because they take up an senior international player slot AND a big chunk of cap space. I'm not saying that there should be NO such players, just fewer than the number TFC are carrying. (IMO, Marvel Wynne and Jeff Cunningham are well worth their salaries and the international slots they take up, but everybody else, even O'Brien and Dichio, should be looked at to see if there's a similarly-priced Canadian who could take their place).

This would open up cap space for signing quality overseas Canadians like Brennan (other Canadians who would be impact players in MLS and could likely be signed for high-end MLS salaries would be guys like Klukowski, Simpson, Bernier, DeVos, Imhoff, Friend, Gerba, Occean, Hume, etc...). I'd use the international slots this would open up to sign cheaper foreigners to give the team some depth (like American MLS journeymen or signings from out the Caribbean or Central American leagues). TFC should be investing in scouting CONCACAF for decent players who can be brought in relatively cheap.

Just my two cents.

Actually the rumour has been that the cap will be increased signficantly (anywhere from 500,000 - 1,000,000) this off-season.

And as a note re: Ronnie O'Brien. Toronto FC has not scored a single goal when he wasn't on the field.

[MikeD]

Good news about the cap if the rumour is true, as I think TFC is in a better position to actually use the extra cap space than most other teams.

Good point about O'Brien, maybe there isn't a Canadian who could replace him (or at least an affordable Canadian who could replace).

[jpg75]

I'd bet the house that MLS will hand out an extra DP slot to each team to guarantee that Landon Donovan stays with the Galaxy...

Good news on the Cap front...that's close to a 25-50% increase.

[nolando]

The latest from TFC and Mo's latest attempts to free himself from the burdon of playing (or potentially even benching or developing) Canadians.

TFC enters final stretch Mo hints at a housecleaning

By STEVEN SANDOR -- Sun Media

Last week, I wrote that Toronto FC's strikers had better perform in the final stretch of the MLS season if they wanted to be back in '08.

Well, I've got to alter that a bit. According to coach Mo Johnston after this weekend's 2-1 loss to Columbus, the strikers aren't alone. In fact, there is not one TFC player whose job is guaranteed next season.

When asked what should motivate his players for the final five games of the MLS season, Johnston gave this blunt answer: "They are playing for that jersey -- each and every one of them."

(edited for length)

Yes, with some long-term contracts on board, it's hard for Johnston to say all jobs are up for grabs. But Johnston has shown he's not afraid to make trades, so guys with long contracts can't get comfortable.

Johnston is also hopeful that the MLS will loosen restrictions on the number of domestic players the team is forced to carry, which would mean that not even a Canadian passport might save a player who ends up on the bubble.

The players understand the message.

"It's important we stay together as a unit and keep fighting out there," said defender Tyrone Marshall. "At the end of the day it's about results and fighting for our jobs."

Yes, this is an expansion team and patience is necessary. But the most recent loss, which saw TFC go ahead by a goal after just one minute played, then throw away a slew of glorious chances to kill the game, is just another example of how this club has left points on the table this season.

"The potential of the team is tremendous," said Marshall. "I think we could have been up right there with those boys at the top of the tables. We could have won a lot of our games."

"Could have" is no longer good enough.

[jonovision]

How refreshing to read "could have" instead of the immensely incorrect "could of". Thank goodness for professional editors.

[teddym]

quote:Originally posted by jonovision

How refreshing to read "could have" instead of the immensely incorrect "could of". Thank goodness for professional editors.

Did you thrill to that, did you Jon-o? So did I! There aren't many of us left!!!

[vpsoccer]

Ha Ha Ha - - - I just read through the "could have," hardly noticing it because it is correct and what you expect. The grating "could of" always stops the flow of my reading. [xx(]

I don't think people understand how much these really really jarring grammar or useage errors can put off readers. So while it might not be too costly in an online forum, beware in work or social situaitons.

[JPB]

Is there even one player on the squad who has earned his jersey? I think there are at least five, contrary to the public (and necessary) remarks of coach Johnston. And three of them are Canadians.

[nolando]

quote:Originally posted by JPB

Is there even one player on the squad who has earned his jersey? I think there are at least five, contrary to the public (and necessary) remarks of coach Johnston. And three of them are Canadians.

Should we wait for your tell-all book, or are you going to tell us which three Canadians you feel have earned the jersey? ;>

[JPB]

My book tour will start just in time for the Christmas season. In the meantime ...

Canadians:

Jim Brennan

Kenny Stamatopoulos

Chris Pozniak

Others:

Maurice Edu

Marvell Wynne

Two others don't make my short list but would have based on their performances before their recent major injuries. That would include Danny Dichio and Ronnie O'Brien.

On the bubble but not counted out: Andrea Lombardo (on potential in a different formation), Carl Robinson (depends on potential replacements for key transition player), Tyrone Marshall (on grit alone).

The majority of the squad would have to perform miracles in the remaining matches if they'd hope to retain their TFC jerseys.

[Guest speedmonk42]

Pray, sacrifice chickens, practice voodoo....

Do whatever you can for 3 MLS teams.

[JPB]

My favorable opinion of Marshal remains favorable after the match in LA.

He stood up well despite the weak midfield in front of him. Marshall led well as captain -- especially with the unusually high success rate of TFC offside traps which was central the team's match strategy.

In the dieing moments of the game he even made an uncharacteristic foraging run upfield. And all the while he kept in check his, err, determined style of tackling opponents.

I think that would move him to the short list of those who have earned their jersey.

Pozniak's deft pass to Samuel for the TFC goal has confirmed him on my short list in my earlier comment. Wynne stays too.

[Macksam]

quote:Originally posted by trueviking

i agree...if the CFL, a league that averages nearly 30 000 spectators a game and has big TV audiences can only manage 8 teams in canada, i would think that 3 MLS teams and possibly a USL team or two would be the best we can expect for a fringe sport in this country.

there are only 6 major league hockey teams for goodness sake.

We could support three more NHL teams in this country.

[astrossoccer]

This entire conversation comes down to sustaining the teams and a league through grass roots development. What needs to happen is all Canadian teams need to come together and start a Canadian development inchoative. I know TFC Whitecaps and Impact have done it but we need the CSA to stop being retarded and get this done.