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Oct 13 WCQ: Canada v Costa Rica in-match thread[R]


sstackho

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My analysis re the other match:

"A Guatemala-Honduras draw puts our fate into our own hands. If we beat Guatemala by two goals, we qualify (at the expense of Guatemala). A one-goal win could see both Canada and Guatemala qualify, if Honduras-CR draw on the last day - and they'd both still be fighting to qualify, so a draw is possible.

A Guatemala win over Honduras means we'd need a draw in the Honduras-CR match on the last day - and they'd both still be fighting to qualify, so a draw is possible. On first glance, a Guatemala win over Honduras certainly looks worse than a draw, until you realize that Guatemala would have already qualified for the hex if they win against Honduras. Perhaps they don't try as hard against Canada in the last match, and it's easier for us to pull off a road win?

A Honduras win over Guatemala means we'd qualify with any win over Guatemala, as long as Honduras doesn't lose to Costa Rica in the last match. At first this sounds like a decent scenario, until you realize that a one or two-goal loss in the last match suits Honduras just fine. "

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