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Seeing as we are already into the math...


Paddy

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I dont even think Canada needs to win 3 games, 2 wins and a tie can do.

Check this out:

Canada beats Costa Rica at home and ties on Wednesday, loses to Honduras and beats Guatemala on the road.

Costa Rica ties today, picks up only one point in two matches against Canada, loses to Honduras on the road and beats Guatemala at home.

Guatemala ties today, loses and ties to Honduras and loses Costa Rica on the road and losses to Canada at home.

Final Standings:

Honduras 14

Canada 8

Costa Rica 5

Guatemala 5

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We now have to hope for one of two things:

1) Guatemalan holds their own against Honduras & Costa Rica, stealing as many points as possible and allowing us to advance with them

2) Guatemalan collapse, with them winning no more games.

Case 1:

Guatemala: 10 (4 pts vs. CR, 3 pts vs. HON, 3 pts vs. CAN)

Canada: 10 (3 pts vs. CR, 4 pts vs. HON, 3 pts vs. GUA)

Honduras: 7 (3 pts vs. CR, 1 pt vs. CAN, 3 pt. vs. GUA)

Costa Rica: 6 (3 pts vs. HON, 3 pt vs. CAN, 1 pt. vs GUA)

Case 2:

Canada: 10 (3 pts vs. CR, 4 pts vs. HON, 3 pts vs. GUA)

Costa Rica: 9 (3 pts vs. CAN, 3 pts vs. GUA, 3 pts vs. HON)

Honduras: 8 (3 pts vs. CR, 1 pt vs. CAN, 4 pts vs. GUA)

Guatemala: 7 (3 pts vs. CAN, 1 pts. vs. HON, 3 pts vs. CR)

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The way I see it this next game against Costa Rica is very winnable. The Costa Ricans have appeared to be very beatable and undisciplined so far. A win in San Jose and I believe Canada could very well be heading to the next stage. Canada would then perhaps lose to Honduras but then face a spirit-broken Costa Rica and an over-achieving (up to this point) Guatemala. I predict the table will look something like this near the end:

Honduras : 14

Canada : 10

Guatemala : 9

Costa Rica: 1

I still believe :D

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Of the above mentioned scenario expect a Guatemala collapse.

They beat a bad Canadian team minus 3 key players. Than at home they sweaked by a Costa Rica team that was down a man from the 16th minute!!! Despite this Costa Rica was still able to score and take 1-0 into the middle of the second half.

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