beachesl Posted June 18, 2004 Share Posted June 18, 2004 Vic Rauter didn't quite get it right. Italy does have to win against Bulgaria for starters. But if there is a tie in the Sweden-Denmark match greater than 1-1, then a three goal win for Italy will NOT do it for Italy. It doesn't matter how much they win by in such a scenario, they would be out. Current Table 1 Sweden 2 1 1 0 +5 4 2 Denmark 2 1 1 0 +2 4 3 Italy 2 0 2 0 0 2 4 Bulgaria 2 0 0 2 -7 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Reasons: If there is a three way tie in points, then the goal differential ONLY between the three teams will count (the Bulgaria differential would then be irrelevant). It their is a tie between Denmark and Sweden, that differential would be even. Next we go to # of goals scored between the three teams- and Sweden would then advance with a 1-1 tie and it would be still be equal between Denmark and Italy (however if the tie score is 2-2 or above, then Denmark would have scored more goals in the common matches and would advance with Sweden). If there is a 0-0 tie between the Scandos, Italy would advance wth any win. Next, we would go to goal differential in all the Group matches, including those with Bulgaria- Sweden would advance and Italy would advance only if they won by three goals or more...if they won by less than two goals they would be eliminated, but if they score two more than Bulgaria, they are still tied with Denmark. Next, it would go to greatest goals scored in all match play. If Italy scores 3 or more goals against Bulgaria they advance, as Denmark only scored two. But, if Italy wins only 2-0, they are still tied. Next (if Denmark ties Sweden 1-1 and Italy beat Bulgaria 2-0, it goes to a the greatest total in the combination of the coefficients in the qualifying rounds (total number of match points divided by the number of matches) of both WC 2002 and Euro 2004. Advantage: ITALIA.... WCQ, 2002 Group 3 1.DENMARK 10 6 4 0 22- 6 22 2.Czech Rep. 10 6 2 2 20- 8 20 3.Bulgaria 10 5 2 3 14-15 17 4.Iceland 10 4 1 5 14-20 13 5.N. Ireland 10 3 2 5 11-12 11 6.Malta 10 0 1 9 4-24 1 Co-eff: 2.2 Group 8 1.ITALY 8 6 2 0 16- 3 20 2.Romania 8 5 1 2 10- 7 16 3.Georgia 8 3 1 4 12-12 10 4.Hungary 8 2 2 4 14-13 8 5.Lithuania 8 0 2 6 3-20 2 Co-eff: 2.5 Euro2004 Qualf. Group 2 1.DENMARK 8 4 3 1 15- 9 15 2.Norway 8 4 2 2 9- 5 14 [2 1 1 0 2-1 4] 3.Romania 8 4 2 2 21- 9 14 [2 0 1 1 1-2 1] 4.Bosnia-Herzeg. 8 4 1 3 7- 8 13 5.Luxembourg 8 0 0 8 0-21 0 Co-eff: 1.85 Group 9 1.ITALY 8 5 2 1 17- 4 17 2.Wales 8 4 1 3 13-10 13 3.Serbia/M'negro 8 3 3 2 11-11 12 [*] 4.Finland 8 3 1 4 9-10 10 5.Azerbaijan 8 1 1 6 5-20 4 Co-eff: 2.12 Total: Coeffs: Italy 4.62, Denmark 4.05 Therefore, the remainder of the tiebreaking scheme, fair play quotient followed by lots would not come into play. see competition regualtions: http://www.uefa.com/newsfiles/19079.pdf -------------------------------------------------------------------- Thus, to summarize: Italy advances with a win, unless Denmark and Sweden tie. If the Scandos tie, then a 1-1 tie will advance Italy if they win by two goals or more...but if the Scandos tie by 2-2 or more, Denmark advances regardless of how much Italy scores. Edit: Just saw that Reuters agrees with me, but they didn't go on to the coefficient part if there is a 1-1 Scandos tie and Italy beats Bulgaria 2-0: http://uk.sports.yahoo.com/040618/2/4hub.html I gotta get a life[|)] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJT Posted June 18, 2004 Share Posted June 18, 2004 quote:Originally posted by beachesl Thus, to summarize: Italy advances with a win, unless Denmark and Sweden tie. If the Scandos tie, then a 1-1 tie will advance Italy if they win by two goals or more...but if the Scandos tie by 2-2 or more, Denmark advances regardless of how much Italy scores. Thanks beachesl. When doing the calculations in my head I was first doing it the correct way, but then Vic Rauter threw me off and I went with his conclusions, forgetting to go back to my original thought process (and I feel extra stupid considering I designed the Voyageurs Cup tiebreakers to work the same way, duh [:I]). I was just talking to some neighbours about this and everyone thinks Italy can't score 3 goals, but it turns out they don't really have to score 3 since 2-0 is as good as 5-0. On the other hand, under Rauter's rules a 3-0 win would guarantee that Italy go through, whereas in reality Italy do not have their fate in their own hands. Gee, would Sweden and Denmark purposely tie 2-2? [] BTW, in that summary you should add what happens if the Scandos tie 0-0 (ie. Italy go through with any win). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancouver Fan Posted June 19, 2004 Share Posted June 19, 2004 Me being Mr.Cynical,the first thing I thought was that the 2 Scandanavian teams would make sure that Italy would not go through and somehow tie the game to work in their favor.Then my Scandanavian wife reassured me that everyone in Scandanavia outside of Sweden hate the Swedes therefore creating the scenario where the 2 teams would both try to win the game for survival. Still does not mean it won't finish 2-2.[V] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxl Boy Posted June 19, 2004 Share Posted June 19, 2004 Now the question is : If you have to choose one game to see live on tv, without knowing the result of the other (but you'll know it just after the final whistle), which one would it be ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argh1 Posted June 19, 2004 Share Posted June 19, 2004 Gloom and doom on the Italian fans side. Probablities are a win against Bulgaria and a clear winner in Denmark v Sweden. Which should be a wicked game. Italy goes through with Denmark.[:I] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.