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  • Holding out for a draw


    Guest

    Okay, this is really cool, but it’s a bit of a brain-bender.

    You ready?

    [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

    With their 1-0 win over El Salvador, Canada has a perfect six points out of six to lead their group in the CONCACAF Gold Cup.

    But they have not yet clinched a quarterfinal spot.

    That’s because, if El Salvador beats Jamaica on Friday night, and Canada gets pasted by Costa Rica, our plucky Canucks could still finish third in Group A.

    That’s far from fatal, as two of the three third-place teams still qualify, and six points will be hard to beat.

    However …

    As of closing time Tuesday, both of the other groups could still produce third-place teams with six points. And if they both wind up with better goal-differences than Canada, it’s lights out for the Great Red North.

    So: Canada needs one – and only one – third-place team to have fewer than six points.

    Here’s where it gets cute. The six-point third-place scenario is impossible in any group where any one game ends in a draw. Just not enough points left to make it happen.

    Still with me?

    Therefore:

    If any game, in any group, ends in a draw from here on out – Canada clinches a spot in the quarterfinals.

    Doesn’t matter who; doesn’t matter where. If Guadeloupe and Nicaragua play a draw in Group C, their third-place team won’t have six points, and Canada’s in. If the Haiti-Grenada game in Group B comes up all even, same scenario applies and the good ship Canada sails on.

    It’s silly, but it’s true.

    Of course, Canada can do the deed themselves with a result against Costa Rica. That, of course, would be ideal. But when any other game in any group at all can put Canada over the top, you’d have to think their chances of moving on are … excellent.

    Anyone want to start a “which game ends in a draw” betting pool?

    Onward!



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