A cynic would suggest that Toronto FC’s best hope tonight is for another weather-related postponement. It worked against the far-less-talented Vancouver Whitecaps (although less so with Dallas), so maybe some good, bad Canadian weather might do the trick against Santos Laguna.
Alas, the weather forecast is calling for above seasonal, mostly dry conditions. If Mother Nature intervenes tonight, we might want to consider if Reds’ management has made a deal with someone, somewhere (likely downstairs). It’s going to be up to the battered and belaboured players of TFC to find a way to shut down the free flowing attack Santos is sure to bring.
It was an attack that made one of MLS’s best sides, the Seattle Sounders – they of a 3-1 whitewashing of TFC less than two weeks ago – look like an u12 team on a bad day. The 6-1 loss Seattle experienced in Mexico exposed its MLS defenders as tactically naive and technically wanting.
Toronto has the worst back-line in MLS.
As stated, pray for rain.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Or, you can try and find the positives. Unexplainably, Toronto has been a better team in CCL action. They were full marks for the defeat over L.A. and any moaning by MLS fans about how Toronto killed the league’s best chance in the competition rings hollow. TFC was the best MLS team in the CCL in 2011-12 and are reaping their just rewards.
Historically, Mexican teams have not been TFC’s boogeyman in the same way American MLS sides have experienced.
The Reds actually have a winning record against the FMF (1W, 2D, 1L) all-time in CCL play. Extend that to Canadian teams and it gets even better. Montreal was 1-1-1 against Mexico in 2008-09.
(Let’s ignore for a moment that the two losses were by a combined score of 9-1).
And, as bad as Seattle lost in Mexico it did manage to win at home.
The Reds will need to win big at home to have any chance in the return leg. A two goal win will probably not be enough. Three may be lacking as well. You’d like to argue that bigger upsets have happened, but you’d be hard pressed to find many.
Truthfully, TFC is going for is a credible performance at home tonight more than it’s thinking it can win the tie.
That’s not impossible.
So, what do they need to do?
Simply put, they need to be much tighter at the back. Against Seattle, Santos exposed a too flat line multiple times. The Mexicans attacked at will down the flanks, particularly the right side. Toronto’s full-backs are normally expected to play as wingbacks. Tonight they need to defend and be as disciplined as they have ever been.
As much as the backline gets flack, the defensive issues are as much a problem in the midfield as at the back. The Reds have allowed five times since Torsten Frings was forced out of the Libero role he has played so impressively since arriving.
There is no one on TFC that comes close to Frings football intelligence. There might not be anyone in MLS who does. Against San Jose, Julian de Guzman was asked to play a similar role at times and he looked lost.
De Guzman cannot look lost against Santos. He needs to be played higher, in a holding role, likely beside another holding mid.
That would be Terry Dunfield. If TFC is to be successful tonight, Dunfield has to play the game of his life as a stopper in the middle, with Julian acting as a transition player for the offense.
Toronto gets a break with Santos best attacking midfielder, Juan Rodriguez, out for card accumulation. The back-up won’t be that big of a downgrade, but maybe enough to give the Toronto mid a chance.
It’s probably not realistic that Aron Winter will elect to go with five in the mid and a parked bus – it’s simply not the Dutch way – so Santos will get scoring chances. Milos Kocic needs to be big and the defenders need to deal with second chances effectively.
The truth is Toronto’s best chance likely comes by scoring goals. On that front, they aren’t as far behind the Mexicans, but they need to produce when they get the chance. It’s time for Danny Koevermans to show again why he was brought in. Ryan Johnson has to keep up his CCL form. Seattle scored three times against Santos. Toronto needs to duplicate that.
Only they need to do that tonight, not over two legs. It will be a smaller crowd on hand than watched the Rogers Centre game against L.A. (about 16,000 are expected, with 1,000 Santos fans possible), but it will be an energetic gathering. It will be a mild night by Canadian standards, which means the Mexicans will be freezing their asses off. TFC has some significant advantages tonight it won’t have a week from now. It goes without saying that they need to take full advantage.
It’s not going to be easy. This is one of the best teams in Mexico. This is a team that aspires to win the CCL. However, Toronto has made a fool out of the odds makers so far in the competition.
So, why not do it one more time?