Following TFC’s 2-1 comeback win over Colorado, a club that has still never beat Toronto in Toronto, the Reds are playing at a 1.6 points per game pace under Paul Mariner.
If you assume that they continue at that pace the rest of the way they would finish with 41 points.
They probably need 46 to make the playoffs.
Let’s break for a moment to watch this:
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
Funny.
But, here’s the thing. It’s no longer bat-you-know-what crazy to at least think about the possibility. On good form and with a whole bunch of Eastern Conference games in front of them the Reds are about two more wins away from getting back into the mix.
When Mariner took over they needed the Hubble Telescope to see the playoffs. Now, a good pair of binoculars will do.
The bitters will want to dismiss that. They will claim that the form is irrelevant. They also think firing the director of business operations will help the team’s set piece play.
I’m not telling you how to think as a fan. I’m telling you to think, period.
The team’s form and tactics under Mariner matters.
What is he doing differently?
The simplistic way of looking at it is to say that they are playing more long balls. It is true that they are playing more direct. However, it’s a bit overstated – using MLSsoccer’s game chalkboard I found that TFC made 11 passes from their defensive third into the opposition's half compared to seven by Colorado. You would have to track that over more games (and by all means be my guest), but it isn’t quite the boot and chase some are making it out to be.
In fact, if you look at the clearance statistic (booting the ball away from danger to open space) you’ll find that Colorado made 44 clearances yesterday to just 16 by TFC.
So, the Reds are playing the ball from the back to players. Even under Mariner (at least yesterday) they are trying to pass out of trouble.
Generally those passes go to Torsten Frings, who is finally playing in the role he was meant to play. Get the ball to Torsten and let him deal with it has become Toronto’s primary strategy. The German touched the ball 116 times yesterday, mostly in the middle of the pitch.
His job is to shore up the defense by giving it an easy option. He’s not going to go forward often, unless it’s to take corners. He’s playing the role Julian de Guzman was supposed to play.
The other thing Mariner is doing is insisting on a tighter line at the back. One way that can be best seen is by watching the fullback play. Whereas under Winter, the fullbacks were told to get forward as much as possible, Mariner asks them to hold back and focus on marking first.
Everything is just more organized and there is a plan. It isn’t difficult stuff, but it is effective.
Does this mean that I think Toronto is going to storm through the rest of the schedule and win the seven or eight times it will have to to have a shot at the playoffs? No.
No, I don’t.
But, I do see promise and I certainly don’t think they are the worst team in the world any longer.