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  • Numbers vs humanity - evaluating the Issey for Warner trade


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    The more things change...

    TFC has traded a player they've had for less than two months. Issey Nakajima-Farran is off to Montreal for central midfielder Collen Warner. Oddly, TFC also gave up allocation in the move.

    On the surface the trade was so unexpected, so insane that most assumed there were more moves in the works. There was some suggestion that the Reds were making room --likely through a three way trade -- to bring in Brek Shea as an allocation claim.

    However, the noise from the club seems to suggest this is as it seems. Issey plays a wider role than Warner and Warner is more defensive minded. In the press release Tim Bezbatchenko said that Warner was coming in as cover for Michael Bradley during the World Cup.

    He's a (very) poor man's Bradley, but it appears that that's all this is. TFC felt that Bradley's role was so vital to the current tactical set-up that they needed to treat a useful player that had already been put through the ringer for months by them (held in limbo on trial from January until April) like, well, crap.

    That's the thing: Under old management TFC had a horrible, damaging reputation with player agents. That reputation was based on them constantly trading players and not communicating in a direct way.

    Issey's agent told Sportsnet this morning that they were not aware of any trade discussions.

    There must be something in the water at MLSE headquarters that makes smart people dumb.

    [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

    Regardless, it's done. So, we must strip all humanity away as well and evaluate the move on a purely sport way. Subjectively, Warner has been a target for scorn amongst Montreal supporters all year. He's seen as having a poor touch and as being prone to giveaways.

    He's a nice guy though, most say.

    Not the most promising subjective view, especially when you consider Issey's two goals and tireless play thus far has made him a fan favourite.

    So, we need to be objective. How does the hard performance data compare.

    Using Whoscored.com, here's what we know.

    Issey 1.8 shots + key passes, 0.4 fouls suffered, 3 turnovers, 2.8 defensive involvement (all per 90 minutes played - DI is combination of tackles, clearances, interceptions and aerial wins)

    Warner 1.7 S+KP, 0.4, 3.3 FS, 4.8 DI

    Quick analysis: nearly identical offensive numbers (other than face Issey has two goals while Warner has none), similar turnovers and much better defensive numbers from Warner (although how much that comes down to the players playing slightly different roles is up for debate).

    Passing numbers: (assists, KP, Ave Passes, pass %, long balls, through balls)

    Issey 0, 0.6, 16.4, 76.8, 1, 0

    Warner 0, 0.8, 26.2, 80.9, 2.2, 0.3

    Warner is moderately better across the board.

    Overall, goals aside, Warner is slightly better. Since goals are one of the least useful measures to use when evaluating midfielders (too much luck involved) TFC likely "wins" the deal based only on purely objective measures.

    They lose on human measures. And, the numbers aren't so much better to justify that.



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