Who needs to watch the games when you have math!?
Ok, maybe not, but good math can make watching the games more interesting. So-called advanced stats (that aren't all that advanced) allow us to dig deeper and think harder about what's happening on the field.
A couple great -- and simple -- stats that can help us predict future games are TSR and PDO. For those new to reading these kind of articles, TSR is a measure that looks at the percentage of total shots a team has in games they play in. It seems silly on the surface, but it's been demonstrated to consistently identify the top teams in a multitude of leagues.
PDO is the combination of a team's shooting percentage and save percentage. That total should be expected to be 1.0. Any deviation from that will be corrected over time, so if a team's PDO is .95 they are a bit unlucky, and if it's 1.05 they have likely been a bit fortunate.
I took those two figures and combined it with a highly controversial stat I call Actual Points On The Table Now (APOTTN), weighted them accordingly (basically TSR and PDO was used to estimate how many points a team will get the rest of the way) to come up with a prediction on where each team will finish.
I'm not going to disclose the formula I used, but the season is about 2/3 done and, well, APOTTN measures what's actually happened. So, do your own math.
The results are as follows:
TSR
1. LA Galaxy .597
2. Kansas City .590
3. Colorado .577
4. Philly .571
5. Columbus .515
6. Toronto .511
7. New England .510
8. Chicago .508
9. Vancouver .507
10. Seattle .503
11. Salt Lake .502
12. Houston .500
13. Portland .478
14. Montreal .457
15. San Jose .453
16. DC United .451
17. Chivas .450
18. New York .447
19. Dallas .441
Dallas continues to confound the TSR numbers. When we last looked at these they were close to the bottom as well, but stood solidly in a playoff spot. That position was largely a result of a red hot start that was on the back of, well, an insanely high PDO of 1.2.
Don't believe in Dallas.
Of note is Salt Lake's mediocre number. If you looked at it 6-weeks ago it was worse. They started the season with back-to-back games against LA and have been steadily raising the number since. I expect them to continue that trend.
As for the Canadian teams the numbers pretty much are exactly where you'd expect based on where they are.
PDO
1. Houston 0.94
2. Montreal 0.95
3. Chivas 0.96
4. Colorado 0.97
5. Columbus 0.98
5. New England 0.98
5. Chicago 0.98
8. Philly 0.99
9. Kansas City 1.0
9. Toronto 1.0
11. Vancouver 1.01
11. Portland 1.01
13. Galaxy 1.02
14. Seattle 1.03
14. San Jose 1.03
14. New York 1.03
17. Salt Lake 1.05
17. Dallas 1.05
17. DC United 1.05
You're really only interested in the top and bottom here.
Montreal has the worst shooting percentage in the league at .086, which makes sense if you watch them. If Marco DI Vaio was even a fraction of himself from last year they wouldn't be in the mess they are.
Should they expect a late season turn around? The numbers suggest it, which should give hope in the CCL if not in MLS.
On the other side there are a couple interesting figures. Salt Lake again jumps out with a high PDO. The numbers suggest they've been lucky. My eyes suggest that Nick Rimando is the goalkeeper of the year and, if the season ended today, would be my MVP pick.
DC United could be the poster team for PDO. They are high in the standings without impressing. Most observers think they will slip a bit down the stretch.
The numbers agree.
How far will they slip though? Let's see.
The projected final standings of my TSR + APOTTN +/-PDO weighted formula are...
East
1- Kansas City (Supporters' Shield)
2- Toronto
3- DC United
4- Philly
5- Columbus
6- New England
7- Chicago
8- Houston
9- New York
10- Montreal
West
1- Galaxy
2- Colorado
3- Seattle
4- Salt Lake
5- Vancouver
6- Dallas
7- Portland
8- Chivas
9- San Jose
That's how the numbers call it. If you don't like it, don't yell at me. Yell at math.