The first time TFC changed coaches mid-season was in their third year, 2009, when John Carver "jumped/was pushed" and was replaced by Chris Cummins. That was actually the team’s best season in terms if points-per-game and the closest they've ever come to making the playoffs.
It happened again the next year when Preki was fired and replaced by Nick Dasovic for the final third of the season. A team that had slid out of playoff contention did not get better -- but, note, did not really get worse -- and missed the playoffs. Interestingly, that team had TFC's highest ever league finish, 11th, and would have made the playoffs if the play-in round positions were not distributed on a cross-over basis with the Western Conference.
Any discussion of Aron Winter's time in-charge of TFC always opens a can of worms but it largely goes unnoticed that Winter's replacement by Paul Mariner in 2012 did actually improve the team's MLS performance that season. Mariner took over a 1W-0D-9L team, on pace for a 10 point season, and had them go 4W-4D-2L over his first 10 games before a grinding winless streak, toxic fan relations, and the hiring of Kevin Payne in the off-season made his position untenable.
Finally, just last year, Ryan Nelsen was let go with the team sliding, but still in a playoff position, and the reigns were handed to current incumbent Greg Vanney. Vanney had little success in the “results based business” of turning the team around, the implosion continued over their final 10 games, and there was little doubt in the end that they weren’t a playoff calibre side.
The important things to note are threefold. First, arguably half the time, a coaching change mid-season has actually improved the team’s results; the other half the time it merely failed to improve the team, or only made them marginally worse. The time they got marginally worse was under the current head coach. Second, it’s generally worked better when the change comes earlier rather than later. Waiting to make sure that a coach has failed might be a greater risk than the disruption of a change. And third, every single mid-season replacement has come from inside the organization: Cummins, Dasovic, Mariner, and Vanney.
For all their managerial turmoil Toronto FC have never actually recruited a new head coach in mid-season. They’ve simply taken the easy route of grabbing the next guy in line in the organization and kicking the can down the road to the off-season. Greg Vanney, the worst performing of those “promote from within” appointments, relative to the coach they replaced, is the only one to get to keep the job over the off-season.
So, if the rumors floating through the TFC-internet have a basis, and Greg Vanney’s position really is in jeopardy, it actually would not be “typical-TFC” if the reason is that there is a specific hire they’d like to replace him with. “Typical-TFC” would be to wait until the team goes on another losing streak, fire Vanney because of results, and then let Robin Fraser see out the rest of the season before radically changing directions again later.
The wrong argument to have is whether Greg Vanney “deserves” to be fired after only 15 games as head coach. If there is a better candidate available, and TFC see their long term future with him, then what’s really happening is that Greg Vanney is being told “thank you for keeping the seat warm, but you were always just an interim appointment.” And really, it’s not like it’s possible to argue that Vanney has done anything during that interim-ship that would be an argument for keeping him, other than the fact that this team has too much history of changing coaches.
Do TFC need to change head coaches because a tough start during a long road trip? No. But do they need to keep Greg Vanney if there is a willing candidate who they have more confidence in? No, they don’t need to do that either.