It isn't really an advanced concept to recognize that MLS teams usually perform better at home than on the road. It's a universal truth, actually, that all sports teams do (the reasons for which are actually fascinating and not fully understood, but that's a far greater topic than this post proposes to tackle).
It's also well understood that MLS has an infuriatingly unbalanced schedule. In the middle of a season it's not uncommon for some teams to have several games in hand with the rest of the league.
Those two factors make it difficult to handicap how strong a team's position is mid-season. Take Toronto and Los Angeles this year for example. Both are quite a distance from the top of their conferences, but both have played far fewer games than those they are chasing.
It was with that in mind that I used to keep track of something I called the "home-away adjusted MLS standings projection (H-AAS)." It was a simple formula that determined a team's points per game at home and away, calculated how many more points they could expect to get if they maintained the same PPG pace for the remainder of the year, and added it to the amount of points already on the board.
Many people mistook the H-AAS as a prediction. It's not. Form can change quickly and teams can dramatically move up and down the projections.
No, what the H-AAS is, is a snapshot. Think of it as a statistically based power rankings. Its strength and weakness likely lies in its simplicity.
That said, it did actually prove to be fairly predictive in past seasons. A team's projections in July were often fairly close to where they ended up.
The reason I stopped doing the projections? That's a simple answer: I cover TFC. We didn't need a projection to understand how the Reds were doing over the past few years.
But, what about now?
West
1. Seattle 72 pts (1st overall)
2. Los Angeles 55 (4th)
3. Salt Lake 54 (5th)
4. Colorado 50 (7th)
5. Vancouver 49 (8th)
6. Dallas 45 (11th)
7. Chivas 44 (12th)
8. Portland 38 (13th)
9. San Jose 31 (18th)
East
1. Toronto 60 (2nd)
2. DC United 59 (3rd)
3. Kansas City 54 (5th)
4. New York 48 (9th)
5. New England 47 (10th)
6. Chicago 38 (13th)
7. Columbus 35 (15th)
8. Philly 34 (16th)
9. Houston 33 (17th)
10. Montreal 27 (19th)
Again, just a snap shot. However, it does illustrate a few things.
1) Just how good Seattle's first half has been. They have to be a clear favourite to win the title and are next to a sure thing to win the Supporters Shield.
2) Toronto fans need to start thinking beyond simply making they playoffs. The Reds are a playoff run and a Seattle loss away from hosting the championship game (at this pace. Insert caveat about no guarantees here)
3) Vancouver is having a very good season and look strong for a playoff berth.
5) Montreal filling the "one Canadian team must be terrible quota."
As stated, the H-AAS can change quickly. We will continue to track it through the summer and into the stretch run.