Jump to content

  • Kevin Laramee
     Share

    Close, but no cigar. 

    We saw a better performance by the Montreal Impact tonight, especially in the midfield, but an old foe has come back to sink the Home-Opener's ship; extra time. With already over 3 minutes played after the first 90, the Seattle Sounders and their new veteran acquisition, Will Bruin made Montreal pay for their lack of killer instinct earlier in the game.

    It all started beautifully though for the Bleu-Blanc-Noir, better possession and passing accuracy in the midfield, early looks on goal, great use of the flanks by Oyongo, Piatti and Oduro. Montreal even took a two goal lead, but it proved insufficient for the 1642ers. A beautiful through ball to Mancosu by Piatti, setup perfectly by the captain Patrice Bernier to open up the 2017 goal tally and a great finish by Piatti for the second. What was really impressive on Piatti's goal was his dismantling of Torres' coverage. Being caught ball watching and not focusing on Piatti's hips, Torres was left flat footed and couldn't cover Piatti's strong foot; 2-nil the Impact.

    But, has it has been the case far too often over the last few years, the defense could not hold on. A questionable penalty call on a Ciman tackle and a moment of panic in the box late in extra time were enough for the Sounders to leave Montreal in a hurry with a stolen point. Like Mauro Biello mentioned in his post-game press conference, there were several questionable decisions on both sides by the referee Jair Marrufo.  Early yellow cards, misplaced free kicks, questionable no-calls and a controversial tying goal scored after the initial 3 minutes of extra time are all issues that should be looked at carefully by PRO (Professional Referee Organization) and its general manager, Peter Walton.

    On the positive side for Montreal, big improvements were made when we compare to last week's performance in Northern California. The passing accuracy went from a mediocre below 70% last week, to a very respectable 79.3% tonight and especially accurate in the defensive midfield (Bernier 84.6% Donadel 91.1% Bernardello 93.6%) . The confusion in the midfield has been addressed, Bernier-Bernardello-Donadel knew exactly where to be and how to execute the game plan  this time around. The captain had a great home opener, 2 assists and a multitude of chances created by using the flank players to move up on the pitch. Oyongo and Oduro were instrumental in Montreal's attack, being able to use the space left open in front of them to generate space and time for Piatti to be effective offensively.

    According to Evan Bush, the fitness aspect of the game, especially late in the game was the difference between a win and a draw. On top of the fitness, the substitution of Patrice Bernier for a debuting Adrian Arregui at the 59 minute mark spelled the end of domination for Montreal and especially the end of ball possession on the night. Coincidence? I think not.

    Overall, 2 goal scored, a good performance by the core and star players and a more stable and reliable midfield are good improvements from game 1. 

    Some doubts concerning the backline still remains, unfortunately,  and more discipline is needed by the Montreal defense if they want to have success in 2017.

    Until next time, have a great soccer!

     

    You can follow Kevin Laramee on Twitter @KevLaramee

    You can listen to all of Kevin's thoughts on the game, player interviews and coaches post-game comments on the latest Off the Woodworkx every Sunday morning! 

     

     Share


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments

    There are no comments to display.



    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

  • Image from iOS.jpg

  • Posts

    • With TFC being eliminated from the playoffs and Auro missing the next match (red card) and Delgado missing the next match (yellow card accumulation), does that mean we shall see more Canadians get playing time? I already know @Bison44's answer:
    • Just look at the players who have emerged for us since last cycle in 2016. The next generation is even better. We are more than fine.
    • This is true, but based on what I found back when I was crunching my own nubers, the difference is miniscule. Like it might not even change the tenth of a point column. The difference between using the "start of window" number vs the "1 game later" number is definitely in the fraction of a point, rather than a full point kind of scale. Especially with the massive assumption/approximation of all other countries staying at the same point level, it doesn't matter one bit.
    • Well yeah. But like I said if he goes full Tabla, or perhaps more accurate is someone like Boakai, and Canada hasn't called him up in years. That's when the "potential" for a switch enters. I'd like to think though he won't end up like that. I have to hope so lol. I get sad when I think about how Boakai turned out.
    • He also learned to play and started the game here so…
    • He's provisionally tied to us as he's played for us at the U17 WC. I believe he is eligible for Jamaica too, but unless his career takes a Tabla-like turn (And doesn't get any caps for the senior team in the meantime) I don't see him playing for anyone else.
    • I think the most telling thing is that he went to Barcelona and came back a worse player. How the hell does that happen?
    • Jamaica actually bottomed out after round 5 at 2.4% (top 3) and 7.7% (top 4). If that feels low, please consider this snapshot after 5 games: Before the ocho started, most projections and pundits estimated that the threshold for qualifying in the top 3 would probably fall somewhere between 20-24 poins, with 24 points pretty much representing a stone cold lock for qualification and ~17-20 points being good for 4th. However, it should be noted that Canada’s projected total has slowly been ticking towards the upper edge of that range (23.7), so the target is not a static one for Jamaica. The higher that target goes, the less likely it becomes that they can catch us even if they get hot. But let’s be generous and say a total of 20 gets you over the line. Jamaica would have needed to average 6W-0D-3L or 5W-3D-1L in a schedule with tough home games remaining against USA/Mexico and road trips to Honduras, Canada, Panama and El Salvador. There are maybe 3 games in that stretch where they would be considered better than 50/50. Even if we assume a 50/50 coin flip model with no draws, they only reach 6 wins or more 25.4% of the time. If you assume 23 points (7 wins) is the the threshold, those odds dip to 9.0%. And that’s before you consider... By ELO rating, Jamaica are the 6th best team in the ocho. Maybe they’re actually better than that, but so far the the limited results we have say they are pretty much who we thought they were. They’re already going into most games as an underdog, so a coinflip model overestimates them. It’s not a two horse race. There are other teams involved, and every single one of them was ahead of Jamaica in the standings at that point. This is the big one that drastically cut into their odds. They not only had to overcome a 6 point deficit in only 9 games, they needed to leapfrog 5 other teams. Even in the tail-end outcomes where Canada/Panama both fall off dramatically, and the points threshold is lowered, and the stars align for Jamaica, some other team pips them to that third spot more often than not by virtue of being better positioned to take advantage. Home advantage. We all know. I think the number was something crazy like a 17% win rate on the road since the Hex began, but I wasn’t able to retrieve that stat. Draws do very little for Jamaica given the hole they’re in, so they need road wins. They got one, and they probably need at least 1-2 more. Not easy. Not likely. Can they do all that and make the top 3? Sure. How likely is it though? I would argue that 2.4% (~1 in 42) to finish top 3, and 7.7% (1 in 13) is completely reasonable for a last place team through 35% of the schedule. 1 in 13 is certainly not hopeless given how deep a hole they were in, and even 1 in 42 is 6x as likely as having twins (1 in 250). Is the prospect of having twins hopeless? You can quibble over a few percentage points, but it’s not like Jaimaica were underestimated by an order of magnitude.  Flash forward to round 6. Almost every result that needed to go their way went their way. They won away from home and 4 of the 5 teams directly above them dropped all 3 points. Honduras in particular tanked their chances in a massive way. Despite that, Jamaica currently sit at 6.4% (not 8%) to finish top 3 and 23.6% to finish top 4. That seems like a pretty fair chance seeing as they still sit 6th, haven’t played very well, and are still in a hole. —— Regarding the use of poisson distribution, I found a brief explanation from El Noido.  
    • Possibly... 1) There are far more people within a 90 minute drive of each other in the GTA than there are in the Greater Montréal area. 2) Being further south and by a big lake, the weather in the GTA is slightly milder than in the Greater Montréal area. Otherwise, you with that part of the post  ↓ 
    • Here's the quotes from Axel Schuster talking about trying to sign him.    
×
×
  • Create New...