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  • TFC better or worse? And does it matter if they won?


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    Football is such a subjective experience. What one person sees as greatness, the next sees as Julian DeGuzman. While I remain firmly in “the JDG was unappreciated for the work he did, even though he was paid too much to do it” camp, a long since dead debate, it perfectly frames the nature of a current ongoing conversation.

    Is Toronto FC actually playing better over their last two games? Or more accurately, can this be called an upswing in performance?

    They’re winning. So, if you’re a ‘points are all that matter’ person then, yes, this is a team on the rise.

    Toronto FC’s head coach, certainly thinks so.

    “I think we showed the difference between this game and the last time we played here,” TFC head coach Ryan Nelsen told the team website following the game. “We looked like a much tougher unit. I thought it was a top class performance from the guys. It really showed their character and mental strength. They worked ever so hard and stayed organized and in a really good shape.”

    Those are all vague assessments on performance. That isn’t meant as a criticism of Nelsen's statement. There is certainly some unquantifiable element to winning that is a mix of confidence and perhaps heavenly luck. But there are other things that can tell more of the story when it comes to how a team did on that field.

    According to Nelsen, this is a squad that played much better than the last time they faced New England. However, if you look at nearly every category from those two games, it appears that Toronto was, in fact, the worse team on the day.

    [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

    May 25 vs New England

    ccs-3362-14026402041_thumb.jpg

    August 4 vs New England

    ccs-3362-140264020411_thumb.jpg

    That won’t shock many who saw that Toronto were lucky to escape the first half without being down 4-1. But they were also worse over their own performance from the previous game, which is a little disconcerting. In attempts on goal, shots on target/off target total, corners won, crosses in, duels won, duels %, total passes, pass accuracy and possession there were all reductions, not evolutions, in performance.

    A decrease in possession over those two games can be accounted for by the early goal in the August fixture and their subsequent attempt to sit behind the ball more. As can the increase in fouls as they attempted to stymie New England's flow. But to be worse in every other category over the previous game runs contrary to the conventional belief that they've improved.

    Additionally, there isn’t much that can be pointed to from that recent game which says ‘Here is why they won’ — other than perhaps Toronto’s sudden aptitude for goal line clearances, Matias Laba's sublime run and the poor finishing by a New England side that are teetering into the bottom third in MLS scoring.

    Things become even less clear when looking at the two games against Columbus.

    May 18 vs Columbus

    ccs-3362-140264020413_thumb.jpg

    July 27 vs Columbus

    ccs-3362-140264020415_thumb.jpg

    If you throw out the ten final deluged filled minutes, you can see that Toronto played virtually the same game as they did months earlier, minus the late heroics.

    For some, that will show that this is a squad that hasn’t seen a great deal of improvement. Conversely though, if you follow Nelsen’s narrative, perhaps they actually were unlucky to not get more results earlier in the year. Either way, by looking critically at these two games, it's hard to make the case they've improved — even if the so called 'bounces' and results have finally turned in their way.

    This may not matter to most readers because, well, Toronto won. Few will care how they won. All that matters is that they went home feeling lifted for once. It’s not something that has happened often this year. Or over the last seven. And that’s all well and good.

    But if we’re going to dissect the team while they’re not getting results, we should probably do the same when they’re on the trot. Otherwise, given the statistics, that's tantamount to admitting that this squad was in the same shape when it was losing, as it is now - which if you remember the first third of the season - is a pretty terrifying thought.

    Some questions to ask, for those who want to look for more from these wins, might be:

    Is Jonathon Osario better serving the team playing in a more advanced attacking midfield role? And does it clash with Nelsen’s system from earlier in the year? The answer is likely yes to both.

    Has Toronto’s attack actually stagnated over the course of the year? Or was Robert Earnshaw’s earlier stellar performances simply a case of a new player to the league being an unknown commodity? Again, likely yes to both. And likely telling, in their own way, about what has

    Is this team actually continuing to improve - as the club, head coach and executive have continued to preach?

    That one is harder to answer. Results don’t always tell the tale, just as the losses Toronto have experienced this year haven't either. But with Toronto playing New England and Columbus once more each before August is out, those looking for clear indications of whether or not this team is truly starting to make a 'difference,' could look to those games as benchmarks from which to pinpoint their performance.



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