Here’s how it works:
By looking at the stat of total appearances, we looked at every player picked in the first round from 2000 to 2015 (there were a few players that we could not find data for. We’ve omitted those players).
We categorized the players into four levels of success – exceptional, solid, poor and failure. An exceptional player appeared in at least 75 per cent of games over their career (to allow us to compare the older drafts, we considered six seasons to be a typical career and 30 games to be a typical season – i.e. players drafted from 2000 to 2006 were expected to have appeared in 75 per cent of 180 games). Solid players appeared in 50 to 74 per cent of games, poor picks appeared in 25 to 49 per cent and failures appeared in less than 25 per cent.
2001-2010 More than 134 (exceptional), 90-134 (solid), 45-89 (poor), less than 45 (failure)
2011 – More than 112 (exceptional), 75-112 (solid), 38-74 (poor), less than 38 (failure)
2012 – More than 89 (exceptional), 60-89 (solid), 30-59 (poor), less than 30 (failure)
2013 – More than 67 (exceptional), 45-67 (solid), 23-66 (poor), less than 23 (failure)
2014 – More than 44 (exceptional), 30-44 (solid), 15-43 (poor), less than 15 (failure)
2015 – More than 22 (exceptional), 15-22 (solid), 8-14 (poor), less than 8 (failure)
For this update we added an additional category of “franchise player” – that is a player that played the equivalent of 75 percent of games over 10 seasons (only players drafted prior to 2006 eligible).
Are appearances the best measure? Probably. Although, it does take any subjective evaluation out of the equation – we don’t distinguish a MLS all-star from a plumber – it is the only stat that transcends all positions. You either play or you don’t and if you are playing then you are a MLS quality player, period.
The goal is to find players, right? Especially if we acknowledge that there aren’t many stars available in the draft now. It’s pretty well established that the biggest advantage of the draft now is to find depth players. So, appearances works.
We restricted the analysis to the first round because the numbers for the second round on are, frankly, absurdly bad. A non-first round pick is essentially a ticket to the lottery and nothing more. Unlike other sports there is no evidence of any single club consistently finding useful pieces beyond the first round.
Here are the results:
Bold indicates exceptional pick, italics failure
2000
1 - Steve Shak – 22 (age in draft year) – 38 (appearances) – New York - Failure
2 - Nick Garcia – 21 – 296 – Kansas City – Exceptional/franchise
3 - Adin Brown – 22 – 85 – Colorado - Poor
4 - Carlos Bocanegra – 21 – 87 - Chicago - Poor
5 - Aleksey Korol – 22 – 40 – Dallas - Failure
6 - Danny Califf – 20 – 186 - Los Angeles - Exceptional
7 - Wes Hart – 23 – 92 – Colorado - Solid
8 - Travis Mulraine – 23 – 15 – San Jose - Failure
9 - John Wilson – 23 – 32 – Kansas City – Failure
10 - Alan Woods – 22 – 19 – Colorado – Failure
11 - Sasha Victorine – 22 – 239 – Los Angeles – Exceptional
12 - Bobby Convey – 17 – 164 - DC United – Exceptional
Total – 12 picks.
Average appearances – 108 - solid
Median appearances – 86
Average age of picks: 21.5
Exceptional picks: 4
Solid picks: 3
Poor picks: 2
Failures: 3
Top 5 Ave: 96
Franchise players: 1 - Nick Garcia (2nd overall), Kansas City
2001
1 - Chris Carrieri – 21 – 70 – San Jose – poor
2 - Ali Curtis – 23 – 50 – Tampa Bay – poor
3 - Mark Lisi – 24 – 120 – DC United – solid
4 - Ryan Nelsen – 24 – 81 - DC United – poor
5 - Joselito Velasco – 19 – 94 - Dallas – solid
6 - Craig Demmin – 30 -19 – Tampa – failure
7 - Ryan Suarez – 24 -75 – Dallas -- poor
8 - Santino Quaranta – 17 -180 – DC United – exceptional
9 - Brian Mullan – 23 – 273 Los Angeles – exceptional/franchise
10 - Duncan Oughton – 24 – 136 – Columbus – exceptional
11 - Isaias Bardales Jr – 22 – 12 – Los Angeles – failure
12 - José Luis Burciaga – 19 – 127 – Kansas City – solid
Total – 12 picks.
Average appearances: 103 - solid
Median appearances: 87.5
Average age of picks: 22.5
Exceptional picks: 3
Solid picks: 3
Poor picks: 4
Failures: 2
Ave top 5: 83 – poor
Franchise players: 1 – Brian Mullan (9th overall), Galaxy
2002
1 - Chris Gbandi – 23 – 111 – Dallas – solid
2 - Taylor Twellman – 22 – 174 - New England – exceptional
3 - Brad Davis – 20 – 271 – New York – exceptional/franchise
4 - Justin Mapp – 18 – 223 - DC United – exceptional
5 - Kelly Gray – 21 – 167 – Chicago – exceptional
6 - Luchi Gonzalez – 22 – 30 – San Jose – failure
7 - Kyle Martino – 21 – 141 – Columbus – exceptional
8 - Carl Bussey – 22 – 9 – Dallas – failure
9 - Daouda Kante – 22 – 26 – DC United – failure
Total – 12 picks (no stats for three players).
Average appearances: 96– solid
Median appearances: 154
Average age of picks: 21.2
Exceptional picks: 5
Solid picks: 1
Poor picks: 0
Failures: 3
Top 5 Ave: 189.2 – exceptional
Franchise Players: 1 – Brad Davis (3rd overall) , New York
2003
1 - Alecko Eskandarian – 21 – 125 – DC United – solid
2 - Ricardo Clark – 20 – 185 – New York – exceptional
3 - Nate Jaqua – 22 – 193 – Chicago – exceptional
4 - Mike Magee – 19 – 286 – New York – exceptional/franchise
5 - David Stokes – 21 – 24 – DC United – failure
6 - Todd Dunivant – 22 – 284 – San Jose – exceptional/franchise
7 - Diego Walsh – 19 – 30 – Columbus – poor
8 - Guillermo Gonzalez – 17 – 12 – Los Angeles – failure
9 - Pat Noonan – 23 – 208 – New England – exceptional
10 - Shavar Thomas – 22 – 174 – Dallas – exceptional
Total – 10 picks.
Average appearances: 127 – solid
Median appearances: 173
Average age of picks: 20.6
Exceptional picks: 6
Solid picks: 1
Poor picks: 0
Failures: 3
Ave top 5: 162.6 – exceptional
Franchise players: 2 – Mike McGee (4th overall), New York; Todd Dunivant (6th overall), San Jose
2004
1 - Freddy Adu – 15 – 133- DC United - solid
2 - Chad Marshall – 20 – 308 – Columbus – exceptional/franchise
3 - Joseph Ngwenya – 23 – 118 – Los Angeles - solid
4 - Matthew Taylor – 23 – 54 - Kansas City - poor
5 - Ryan Cochrane – 21 – 172 – San Jose - exceptional
6 - Ramón Núñez – 18 – 75- Dallas - poor
7 - Clarence Goodson – 22 – 118 – Dallas - solid
8 - Clint Dempsey – 21 – 126- New England - solid
9 - Scott Buete – 24 – 21 – Chicago - failure
10 - Steve Cronin – 21 – 86 – San Jose - poor
Total – 10 picks.
Average appearances: 111.5 – solid
Median appearances: 80.5
Average age of picks: 20.8
Exceptional picks: 2
Solid picks: 4
Poor picks: 2
Failures: 1
Top 5 average: 157 – exceptional
Franchise players: 1 – Ryan Cochrane (5th overall), San Jose
2005
1 - Nikolas Besagno – 16 – 8 – Salt Lake – Failure
2 - Brad Guzan – 21 – 79- Chivas - poor
3 - Chad Barrett – 20 – 255 – Chicago – exceptional/franchise
4 - Danny O'Rourke – 22 – 189 – San Jose – exceptional
5 - Ugo Ihemelu – 22 – 186 – Los Angeles – exceptional
6 - Drew Moor – 21- 304 – Dallas – exceptional/franchise
7 - Hunter Freeman – 20 – 126 – Colorado – solid
8 - Troy Roberts – 22 – 61 – Los Angeles – poor
9 - Michael Parkhurst – 21 – 181 - New England – exceptional
10 - Jack Stewart – 22 – 39 – Chicago- poor
11 - Scott Sealy – 24 – 144 – Kansas City – exceptional
12 - Tim Ward – 18 – 71 – New York – poor
Total – 12 picks.
Average appearances: 136.9 – exceptional
Median appearances: 109
Average age of picks: 20.75
Exceptional picks: 6
Solid picks: 1
Poor picks: 4
Failures: 1
Ave top 5: 143.4 – exceptional
Franchise players: 2 – Chad Barrett (3rd overall), Chicago; Drew Moor (6th overall), Dallas
2006
1 - Marvell Wynne – 19 – 265 – New York – exceptional
2 - Mehdi Ballouchy – 22 – 211 – Salt Lake – exceptional
3 - Jason Garey – 21-97 – Columbus - solid
4 - Yura Movsisyan – 18 – 81 – Kansas City - poor
5 - Sacha Kljestan – 19 – 147- Chivas – exceptional
6 - Dax McCarty – 18 – 248 – Dallas – exceptional/franchise
7 - Justin Moose – 21 – 8 – DC United – poor
8 - Patrick Ianni – 20 – 130 – Houston – solid
9 - Kei Kamara – 21 – 225 – Columbus – exceptional
10 - Calen Carr – 23 – 117 – Chicago – solid
11 - Nathan Sturgis – 18 – 141 – Los Angeles – exceptional
Total – 12 picks (no stats on one player)
Average appearances: 128.8 – solid
Median appearances: 106
Average age of picks: 20
Exceptional picks: 5
Solid picks: 5
Poor picks: 2
Failures: 1
Top 5 Ave.: 160.2 – exceptional
Franchise players: N/A
2007 –
1 - Maurice Edu – 20 – 90 – Toronto – solid
2 - Bakary Soumaré – 20 – 125 – Chicago – solid
3 - Michael Harrington – 20 – 221 – Kansas City – exceptional
4 - Chris Seitz – 19 – 64 – Salt Lake - poor
5 - Wells Thompson – 22 – 158 – New England - exceptional
6 - Nico Colaluca – 20 – 11 – Colorado – failure
7 - John Cunliffe – 25 – 27 – Chivas – failure
8 - Jerson Monteiro – 21 – 5 – Chicago – Failure
9 - Anthony Wallace – 17 – 44- Dallas – failure
10 - Andrew Boyens – 23 – 70 – Toronto - poor
11 - Bryan Arguez – 17 – 0 – DC United – failure
12 - Amaechi Igwe – 18 – 22 – New England – failure
13 - John Michael Hayden – 23 – 18 – Houston – failure
Total – 13 picks.
Average appearances: 65.7 - poor
Median appearances: 31.5
Average age of picks: 20.4
Exceptional picks: 2
Solid picks: 2
Poor picks: 2
Failures: 7
Top 5 Ave: 131.6 - solid
Franchise Players: N/A
2008 -- HOMEGROWN RULE STARTS
1 - Chance Myers – 19 – 133 – Kansas City – solid
2 - Brek Shea – 17 – 117 – Dallas – solid
3 - Tony Beltran – 20 – 190 – Salt Lake – exceptional
4 - Sean Franklin – 22 – 208 – Los Angeles – exceptional
5 - Ciaran O'Brien – 19 – 1 – Colorado – failure
6 - Andy Iro – 22 – 71 – Columbus – poor
7 - Patrick Nyarko – 21 – 196 – Chicago – Exceptional
8 - Josh Lambo – 16 – 0 – Dallas- failure
9 - Julius James – 23 – 94 – Toronto – solid
10 - Pat Phelan – 22 – 80 – Toronto – poor
11 - Roger Espinoza – 21 – 130 – Kansas City solid
12 - Dominic Cervi – 21 – 0 - Chicago – failure
13 - Rob Valentino – 21 – 0 – New England – failure
14 - David Horst – 22 – 19 – Salt Lake – failure
Total – 14 picks.
Average appearances: 88.5 - poor
Median appearances: 74.5
Average age of picks: 20.4
Exceptional picks: 3
Solid picks: 4
Poor picks: 2
Failures: 5
Ave top 5: 129.8 – solid
Franchise players: N/A
2009
1 - Steve Zakuani – 21 – 97 – Seattle – solid
2- Sam Cronin – 22 – 199 – Toronto – exceptional
3 - Omar Gonzalez – 21 – 180 – Los Angeles – exceptional
4 - O'Brian White – 23 – 40 – Toronto - poor
5 - Peri Marošević – 20 – 11 – Dallas - poor
6 - Rodney Wallace – 21 – 159 – DC United – exceptional
7 - Chris Pontius – 22 – 152 – DC United – exceptional
8 - Matt Besler – 22 – 179 – Kansas City – exceptional
9 - Michael Lahoud – 23 – 122 – Chivas - solid
10 - Kevin Alston – 21 – 148 – New England – exceptional
11 - Jeremy Hall – 21 – 88 – New York- poor
12 - Jean-Marc Alexandre – 23 – 40 – Salt Lake – failure
13 - Stefan Frei – 23 – 140 – Toronto – exceptional
14 - George John – 22 – 119 – Dallas – solid
Total – 15 picks (Stats missing on one player).
Average appearances: 110.4 - solid
Median appearances: 66.5
Average age of picks: 21.8
Exceptional picks: 7
Solid picks: 3
Poor picks: 3
Failures: 1
Top 5 Ave: 105.4 – solid
Franchise players: N/A
2010
1 - Danny Mwanga – 19 – 102 – Philly – solid
2 - Tony Tchani – 21 – 151 – New York – exceptional
3 - Ike Opara – 21 – 63 – San Jose - poor
4 - Teal Bunbury – 20 – 149 – Kansas City – exceptional
5 - Zach Loyd – 23 – 163 – Dallas – exceptional
6 - Amobi Okugo – 19 – 134 – Philly – solid
7 - Jack McInerney – 18 – 143 – Philly – exceptional
8 - Dilly Duka – 21 – 117 – Columbus – solid
9 - Zack Schilawski – 23 – 50 – New England – poor
10 - Blair Gavin – 21 – 43 – Chivas – failure
11 - David Estrada – 22 – 50 – Seattle - poor
12 - Bright Dike – 23 – 34 – Columbus – failure
13 - Corben Bone – 22 – 20 – Chicago – failure
14 - Austin da Luz – 23 – 21 – New York – failure
15 - Collen Warner – 22 – 136 – Salt Lake – exceptional
16 - Michael Stephens – 21 – 116 – Los Angeles - solid
Total – 16 picks.
Average appearances: 93.25 – solid
Median appearances: 35.5
Average age of picks: 21.2
Exceptional picks: 4
Solid picks: 4
Poor picks: 2
Failures: 4
Ave top 5: 125.6
Franchise players: N/A
1 - Omar Salgado – 18 – 26 – Vancouver – failure
2 - Darlington Nagbe – 21 – 160 – Portland – exceptional
3 - Perry Kitchen – 19 – 158 – DC United – exceptional
4 - Zarek Valentin – 20 – 40 – Chivas - poor
5 - Zac MacMath – 20 – 106 – Philly – solid
6 - A. J. Soares – 22 – 108 – New England – solid
7 - Kofi Sarkodie – 20 – 98 – Houston – solid
8 - Michael Nanchoff – 23 – 22 – Vancouver – failure
9 - Jalil Anibaba – 23 – 128 – Chicago – exceptional
10 - C. J. Sapong – 22 – 134 – Kansas City – exceptional
11 - Will Bruin – 22 – 137 – Houston – exceptional
12 - Rich Balchan – 22 – 23 – Columbus – failure
13 - Corey Hertzog – 21 – 12 – New York – failure
14 - Víctor Mairongo – 23 – 9 – Chivas – failure
15 - Justin Meram – 121 – 17 – Columbus – failure
16 - Paolo Cardozo – 22 – 27 – Los Angeles – failure
17 - Bobby Warshaw – 22 – 32 – Dallas – failure
18 - Eddie Ababio – 23 – 0 – Colorado – failure
Total – 18 picks.
Average appearances: 68.7 - poor
Median appearances: 17.5
Average age of picks: 20.1
Exceptional picks: 5
Solid picks: 3
Poor picks: 1
Failures: 9
Top 5 Ave: 98 – solid
Franchise players: N/A
2012
1. Andrew Wenger - Montreal 22-- 105 – Exceptional
2. Darren Mattocks - Vancouver – 22 - 93 – Exceptional
3. Kelyn Rowe - New Eng - 21- 123 – Exceptional
4. Luis Silva – Toronto- 24 - 108 - Exceptional
5. Casey Townsand - Chivas -23- 26 –failure
6. Sam Garza - San Jose -23-- 12 – Failure
7. Nick DeLeon - DCU -22- 109 - Exceptional
8. Andrew Jean-Baptiste -20- PDX - 41 – poor
9. Austin Berry - Chicago -24- 68 - solid
10. Ethan Finlay - Columbus -22- 97 – exceptional
11. Matt Hedges - Dallas -22- 118 – Exceptional
12. Aaron Maund - Toronto -22- 46 – Poor
13. Chandler Hoffman - Philly -22- 20 – Failure
14. Tony Cascio - Colorado -22- 42 – poor
15. Andrew Duran - Seattle -23- 0 – Failure
16. Dom Dwyer - KC -22- 80 - Solid
17. Enzo Martinez - SLC -22- 0 - Failure
18. Colin Rolfe - Houston -22- 0 - Failure
19. Tommy Meyer - LAG -22- 33 - poor
Total – 18 picks.
Average appearances: 59 - poor
Median appearances: 46 – poor
Average age of picks: 21.1
Exceptional picks: 7
Solid picks: 1
Poor picks: 4
Failures: 6
Top 5 Ave: 91 – exceptional
Franchise players: N/A
2013
1. Andrew Farrell - New England -21- 91 - Exceptional
2. Carlos Alvarez - Chivas -23- 51 – solid
3. Kyle Bekker - Toronto -23- 40 - poor
4. Kekuta Manneh – Vancouver -19- 81 – exceptional
5. Erik Hurtado - Vancouver -23- 54 - Solid
6. Deshorn Brown - Colorado -23-- 62 - poor
7. Walker Zimmerman - Dallas -20- 35 - poor
8. Blake Smith - Montreal -22- 19 - failure
9. Ryan Finley - Columbus - 30 – 22 – failure
10. Eriq Zavaleta - Seattle -21- 40 - poor
11. Dillon Powers - Colorado -22- 92 - Exceptional
12. John Stertzer - SLC -23- 28- poor
13. Jason Johnson - Houston -23- 41 - poor
14. Mikey Lopez - KC 20- 13 - Failure
15. Tommy Muller - San Jose -22- 0 - Failure
16. Emery Welshman – Toronto-22 - 1 - Failure
17. Taylor Kemp - DCU -22- 43 - poor
18. Fernando Monge -23- Montreal - 0 - Failure
19. Charlie Rugg - LAG -23- 4 - Failure
Total – 19 picks.
Average appearances: 37.7 – poor
Median appearances: 40 – poor
Average age of picks: 21.9
Exceptional picks: 3
Solid picks: 2
Poor picks: 7
Failures: 7
Top 5 Ave: 63.4 -- solid
Franchise players: N/A
2014
1. Andre Blake – Philadelphia 24 – 7 – failure
2. Steve Birnbaum - D.C. United 23- 40 - solid
3. Christian Dean - Vancouver Whitecaps 21- 9 – failure
4. Steve Neumann - New England Revolution 23- 32 - solid
5. Eric Miller - Montreal Impact 21 – 30 - solid
6. Tesho Akindele - FC Dallas 22 – 53 – exceptional
7. Andre Lewis – Vancouver – 20 – 0 - failure
8. Damion Lowe - Seattle Sounders 21 – 0 – failure
9. J. J. Koval - San Jose Earthquakes 22 – 37 - - solid
10. Nick Hagglund - Toronto FC 24 – 37 – solid
11. Patrick Mullins - New England Revolution 22 – 44 – exceptional
12. Marlon Hairston - Colorado Rapids 20 – 25 - poor
13. Marco Franco - Chicago Fire 23 – 0 - failure
14. Ben Sweat - Columbus Crew 23 – 0 – failure
15. Pedro Ribeiro - Philadelphia Union 24 – 27 – poor
16. A. J. Cochran - Houston Dynamo 21 – 26 – poor
17. Schillo Tshuma - Portland Timbers 22 – 0 – failure
18. Ryan Neil - Real Salt Lake 22 – 0 – failure
19. Grant Van De Casteele - Colorado Rapids 23 – 1 – failure
Total – 19 picks.
Average appearances: 19.3 -- poor
Median appearances: 25 – poor
Average age of picks: 22.1
Exceptional picks: 2
Solid picks: 5
Poor picks: 3
Failures: 9
Top 5 Ave: 23.6 – poor
Franchise players: N/A
2015
1 . Cyle Larin - Orlando City SC 19 – 27 -- exceptional
2 . Khiry Shelton - New York City FC 21 – 15 – solid
3 . Romario Williams - Montreal Impact 20 – 2 – failure
4 . Fatai Alashe - San Jose Earthquakes 21 – 28 – exceptional
5 . Nick Besler - Portland Timbers 21 – 0 - failure
6 . Alex Bono - Toronto FC 20 – 0 – failure
7 . Matt Polster - Chicago Fire 21 – 30 – exceptional
8 . Zach Steinberger - Houston Dynamo 22 – 3 – failure
9 . Clément Simonin - Toronto FC 23 – 2 – failure
10 . Connor Hallisey - Sporting Kansas City - 21 – 11 - poor
11 . Skylar Thomas - Toronto FC 21 – 0 – failure
12 . Saad Abdul-Salaam - Sporting Kansas City - 23 – 15 – solid
13 . Tim Parker Vancouver - Whitecaps FC - 21 – 15 – solid
14 . Axel Sjöberg - Colorado Rapids - 23 – 14 – poor
15 . Otis Earle - FC Dallas - 22 – 0 – failure
16 . Cristian Roldan - Seattle Sounders FC - 19 – 22 – exceptional
17 . Miguel Aguilar - D.C. United - 21 – 17 – solid
18 . Leo Stolz - New York Red Bulls - 23 – 0 – failure
19. Sergio Campbell - Columbus Crew SC - 22 – 1 – failure
20 . Amadou Dia - Sporting Kansas City - 21 – 22 – exceptional
21 . Ignacio Maganto - Los Angeles Galaxy - 23 – 12 - poor
Total – 21 picks (Extra pick due to need to honour Chivas trades)
Average appearances: 12.2 – poor
Median appearances: 14 – poor
Average age of picks: 21.4
Exceptional picks: 5
Solid picks: 4
Poor picks: 3
Failures: 9
Top 5 Ave: 14.4 – solid
Franchise players: N/A
Let’s start with some basic breakdowns, starting with the overall numbers.
Number of drafts: 16
Total players tracked: 227
Exceptional picks: 69 (30.4%)
Solid picks: 46 (20.3%)
Poor picks: 41 (18%)
Failure picks: 71 (31.3%)
Nearly one-third of all players drafted in the first round all-time were failures and a majority were either failures or poor. So, if you were to spin the draft in its absolutely most positive way teams are flipping a coin in the first round to see if they are going to get a serviceable MLS player – and let’s be candid here: many of the players that are exceptional by our standards are subjectively speaking pretty average players. The chances of getting a true star are pretty thin – there have only been eight franchise players drafted all-time (and one is Chad Barrett, who is underrated, but ultimately still Chad Barrett).
Again, these are the all-time numbers. There is a clear divide in the draft yield between the drafts pre and post homegrown rule. Let’s breakdown those numbers:
Pre homegrown
Players tracked: 88
Exceptional: 31 (35.2%)
Solid: 20 (22.7%)
Poor: 16 (18.1%)
Failure: 21(23.8%)
Post homegrown
Players tracked: 136
Exceptional: 35 (25.7%)
Solid: 26 (19.1%)
Poor: 25 (18.3%)
Failure: 50 (36.7%)
The numbers speak for themselves. Before the homegrown rule came into effect nearly four of every 10 picks were exceptional. After, that four in six stat was for the failures.
One reason for the change is likely the expanding of the first round. It stands to reason that has the round goes deeper the picks get harder.
There were 74 picks after the top 10. Of that 64 were made post homegrown.
The numbers:
Exceptional: 12 (16.2%)
Solid: 7 (9.5%)
Poor: 14 (18.9%)
Failure: 41 (55.4%)
Is there something that jumps out about exceptional players? Let’s isolate them to have a look.
2000
2 - Nick Garcia – 21 – 296 – Kansas City - defender
6 - Danny Califf – 20 – 186* - Los Angeles - defender
11 - Sasha Victorine – 22 – 239 – Los Angeles – midfielder
12 - Bobby Convey – 17 – 164 - DC United - midfielder
2001
8 - Santino Quaranta – 17 -180 – DC United – forward
9 - Brian Mullan – 23 – 273 Los Angeles – midfielder
10 - Duncan Oughton – 24 – 136 – Columbus – defender
2002
2 - Taylor Twellman – 22 – 174* - New England – forward
3 - Brad Davis – 20 – 271 – New York – midfielder
4 - Justin Mapp – 18 – 223 - DC United – midfielder
5 - Kelly Gray – 21 – 167 – Chicago – defender
7 - Kyle Martino – 21 – 141 – Columbus – midfielder
2003
2 - Ricardo Clark – 20 – 185 – New York – midfielder
3 - Nate Jaqua – 22 – 193 – Chicago – forward
4 - Mike Magee – 19 – 286 – New York – forward
6 - Todd Dunivant – 22 – 284 – San Jose – defender
9 - Pat Noonan – 23 – 208 – New England - forward
10 - Shavar Thomas – 22 – 174 – Dallas – defender
2004
2 - Chad Marshall – 20 – 308 – Columbus – defender
5 - Ryan Cochrane – 21 – 172 – San Jose – defender
2005
3 - Chad Barrett – 20 – 255 – Chicago – forward
4 - Danny O'Rourke – 22 – 189 – San Jose – defender
5 - Ugo Ihemelu – 22 – 186 – Los Angeles – defender
6 - Drew Moor – 21- 304 – Dallas – defender
9 - Michael Parkhurst – 21 – 181 - New England – defender
11 - Scott Sealy – 24 – 144 – Kansas City – forward
2006
1 - Marvell Wynne – 19 – 265 – New York – defender
2 - Mehdi Ballouchy – 22 – 211 – Salt Lake – midfielder
5 - Sacha Kljestan – 19 – 147- Chivas – midfielder
9 - Kei Kamara – 21 – 225 – Columbus – forward
11 - Nathan Sturgis – 18 – 141 – Los Angeles – midfielder
2007
3 - Michael Harrington – 20 – 221 – Kansas City – defender
5 - Wells Thompson – 22 – 158 – New England – midfielder
2008 – Homegrown rule starts
3 - Tony Beltran – 20 – 190 – Salt Lake – defender
4 - Sean Franklin – 22 – 208 – Los Angeles – midfielder/winger
7 - Patrick Nyarko – 21 – 196 – Chicago – midfielder/winger
2009
2- Sam Cronin – 22 – 199 – Toronto – midfielder
3 - Omar Gonzalez – 21 – 180 – Los Angeles – defender
6 - Rodney Wallace – 21 – 159 – DC United – midfielder/winger
7 - Chris Pontius – 22 – 152 – DC United – midfielder
8 - Matt Besler – 22 – 179 – Kansas City – defender
10 - Kevin Alston – 21 – 148 – New England – defender
13 - Stefan Frei – 23 – 140 – Toronto – keeper
2010
4 - Teal Bunbury – 20 – 149 – Kansas City – forward
5 - Zach Loyd – 23 – 163 – Dallas – defender
7 - Jack McInerney – 18 – 143 – Philly – forward
15 - Collen Warner – 22 – 136 – Salt Lake – midfielder
2011
2 - Darlington Nagbe – 21 – 160 – Portland – midfielder
3 - Perry Kitchen – 19 – 158 – DC United – midfielder
9 - Jalil Anibaba – 23 – 128 – Chicago – defender
10 - C. J. Sapong – 22 – 134 – Kansas City – forward
11 - Will Bruin – 22 – 137 – Houston – forward
2012
1. Andrew Wenger - Montreal 22—105 – forward
2. Darren Mattocks - Vancouver – 22 – 93 – forward
3. Kelyn Rowe - New Eng - 21- 123 – midfielder
4. Luis Silva – Toronto- 24 – 108 – midfielder
7. Nick DeLeon - DCU -22- 109 – midfielder
10. Ethan Finlay - Columbus -22- 97 – midfielder
11. Matt Hedges - Dallas -22- 118 – defender
2013
1. Andrew Farrell - New England -21- 91 – defender
4. Kekuta Manneh – Vancouver -19- 81 – forward/winger
11. Dillon Powers - Colorado -22- 92 – midfielder
2014
6. Tesho Akindele - FC Dallas 22 – 53 – forward
11. Patrick Mullins - New England Revolution 22 – 44 – forward
2015
1 . Cyle Larin - Orlando City SC 19 – 27 – forward
4 . Fatai Alashe - San Jose Earthquakes 21 – 28 – midfielders
7 . Matt Polster - Chicago Fire 21 – 30 – midfielder
16 . Cristian Roldan - Seattle Sounders FC - 19 – 22 – midfielder
20 . Amadou Dia - Sporting Kansas City - 21 – 22 – defender
By position:
Forwards 19 (11 post HG) – 27.5% (30.5%)
Midfielders 27 (16) – 39.1% (44.4%)
Defenders 22 (8) – 31.8% (22.2%)
Keepers 1 (1) – 1.4% (2.7%)
Total 69 (36)
It’s not surprising that midfielders would dominate the draft. It’s the position that typically has the most players, especially when you consider that a significant amount of players are converted to “utility” midfielders at the pro level.
It’s also not surprising that only one keeper – Stef Frei – has ever had a significant impact out of the draft. It’s a position that is both in limited demand and that often favours experience over youth. The move to USL reserve teams likely benefits younger keepers more than any other position.
What is surprising is the reduction in successful defenders to the point that there are now more successful attackers drafted. There is room for further exploration here.
By age:
17 – 2 (0 post HG) – 6% - 0% -- overall 5.5%
18 – 2 (1) – 6% - 2.7% -- 8.3%
19 – 3 (4) – 9% - 11.1% -- 10.1%
20 – 6 (3) – 18.1% - 8.3% -- 13%
21 – 7 (9) – 21.2% - 25% -- 23.1%
22 – 9 (15) -- 25% - 41.6% -- 34.7%
23 – 2 (3) – 6% - 8.3% -- 7.2%
24 – 2 (1) – 6% - 2.7% -- 4.3%
By and large the vast majority of successful players (57.8%) are drafted when they are either 21 or 22 -- after graduating college. This lends credence to the idea that the draft is best utilized to find “late bloomers.” This idea is backed up by the increase in players drafted in that age bracket post homegrown rule (from 46.2% to 66.6%). If a player is truly talented they are absorbed into MLS (or have left for Europe) long before college is over.
Since soccer is a sport that inspires partisanship let’s end today with a question ever fan will want answered – who drafts the best? To put an objective value on that question we placed a value on each pick made by a team all-time, weighted by when they were picked.
Those values are:
Top 5 pick : 3 points for exceptional, 1 point for solid, 0 for poor or failure
Pick 6-10: 4 points for exceptional, 2 for solid, 1 for poor, 0 for failure
Picks 11 and above: 5 points exceptional, 3 for solid, 1 for poor, 0 for failure
Bonus point for drafting a franchise player
To compare teams equally we divided the total points by amount of picks made to get a points per pick figure.
The is exercise is designed to see what teams draft the best, not which teams retain and develop talent the best. Therefore, we don’t concern ourselves with whether the team that drafted the player benefited from their play.
The results:
1. New England 2.5 points per pick
2. Kansas City 2.47
3. Galaxy 2.05
4. DCU 2.0
5. Chicago 1.81
6. Red Bulls 1.72
7. Dallas 1.57
8. San Jose/Houston 1.43
9. Columbus 1.35
10. Seattle 1.33
11. Philly 1.28
12. TFC 1.26
13. Vancouver 1.25
14. Colorado 1.21
15. RSL 1.05
16. Montreal 0.8
17. Chivas 0.67
Orlando, NYCFC, San Jose 2.0, Tampa Bay and Portland did not meet the minimum amount of total first round picks (5) to qualify for a rank.
Thanks it for us for this update of the SuperDraft analysis. We encourage others to take the data and dig for more trends.